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Precedents, Reputation, and Higher-Order Induction
No full textWe argue that a precedent is important not only because it changes the relative frequency of a certain event, making it positive rather than zero, but also because it changes the way that relative frequencies are weighed. Specifically, agents assess probabilities of future events based on past occurrences, where not all of these occurrences are deemed equally relevant. More similar cases are weighed more heavily than less similar ones. Importantly, the similarity function is also learnt from experience by "second-order induction". The model can explain why a single precedent affects beliefs above and beyond its effect on relative frequencies, as well as why it is easier to establish reputation at the outset than to re-establish it after having lost it. Finally, we discuss more sophisticated forms of learning, by which similarity is defined not only on cases but also on attributes, and the importance of some attributes, learnt from the data by second-order induction, can also affect the perceived importance of other attributes
Watch out-It's my private space! Examining the influence of technology driven intrusions on employee performance
No full textInternational audienceIn this research we draw upon organizational literature on spatial intrusion to identify two components of technology related employee intrusion concerns -- employee accessibility and employee visibility. Situating our arguments in learning and control perspectives, we theorize the influence of employee ‘accessibility' and ‘visibility' on two technology enabled employee outcomes of productivity and innovation. We test the proposed research model through a survey of senior organizational managers who regularly use organizational technologies for executing their routine tasks. Results indicate that employee accessibility generally has positive while employee visibility has negative relationship with performance outcomes. Findings have significant implications for research and practice because they show that spatial intrusion does not necessarily have a negative influence on employee performance
Optimal Monetary Policy and Liquidity with Heterogeneous Households
No full textThis paper derives the optimal money injection at the Zero Lower Bound (ZLB), in a tractable model where households hold heterogeneous money holdings due to explicit financial fric- tions, such as limited participation or temporary binding credit constraints. This framework is moti- vated by recent empirical findings. A deleveraging shock generates deflationary pressure and a fall in the real interest rate, pushing the economy to the ZLB. The main result is that open-market opera- tions can stabilize the economy at the ZLB whereas lump-sum money transfers cannot. Moreover, an optimal money injection does not avoid the economy being at the ZLB
Price and Liquidity Spillovers during Fire Sale Episodes
No full textWe study price and liquidity spillovers in U.S. stock markets around mutual fund fire sales. We find that the well-documented impact-reversal pattern for the returns of fire sale stocks (e.g., Coval and Stafford, 2007) spills over onto the stock returns of economic peers, with a magnitude that is around one fifth of the original effect. These spillovers extend to liquidity and are not explained by common funding shocks or the hedging activity of liquidity providers. We conclude that they represent information spillovers due to learning from prices, thus identifying cross-asset learning as an important driver for the commonality in returns and liquidity
Gremlins in the Data: Identifying the Information Content of Research Subjects
No full textEmpirical demand functions (based on experimental studies, such as Choice Based Conjoint) are critical to many aspects of marketing, such as targeting and segmentation, setting prices and evaluating the potential of new products. While considerable work has been done on developing approaches for ensuring that research subjects are both honest and engaged, the reduced cost associated with collecting data in an online setting has driven many studies to be collected under conditions which leave researchers unsure of the value of the information content provided by each subject. Objective measures related to how the subject completes the study, such as latency (how quickly answers are given), can only be tied to other objective measures (such as the fit of the model or consistency of the answer) and ultimately have questionable relationship to the subject's utility function.In response to this problem, we introduce a mixture modeling framework which clusters subjects based on variances in a choice based setting (multinomial logit models). This model naturally groups subjects based on the internal consistency of their answers, where we argue that a higher level of internal consistence (hence lower variance) reflects more engaged consumers who have sufficient experience with the product category and choice task, to have well-formed utilities. This approach provides an automated way of determining which consumers are relevant. We discuss both the modeling framework and illustrate the methods using data from several commercial conjoint studies
Bayesian Decision Theory and Stochastic Independence
No full textStochastic independence has a complex status in probability theory. It is not part of the definition of a probability measure, but it is nonetheless an essential property for the mathematical development of this theory. Bayesian decision theorists such as Savage can be criticized for being silent about stochastic independence. From their current preference axioms, they can derive no more than the definitional properties of a probability measure. In a new framework of twofold uncertainty, we introduce preference axioms that entail not only these definitional properties, but also the stochastic independence of the two sources of uncertainty. This goes some way towards filling a curious lacuna in Bayesian decision theory
Essais sur les Marchés des Obligations Souveraines
No full textIn the first chapter, I ask if short-sellers are superiorly informed about sovereign auctions. I find a large average increase in demand for short-selling prior to auctions. Yet, the demand for short-selling a bond does not predict a subsequent increase in the bond's yield. Overall, there is no evidence that short-sellers predict or interpret auction outcomes better than the market.In the second chapter, I develop and test a model explaining the gradual price decrease observed in the days leading to large anticipated asset sales such as Treasury auctions. In the model, risk-averse investors anticipate an asset sale which magnitude, and hence price, are uncertain. I show that investors face a trade-off between hedging the price risk with a long position, and speculating on the difference between the pre-sale and the expected sale prices. Due to hedging, the equilibrium price is above the expected sale price. As the sale date approaches, uncertainty about the sale price decreases, short speculative positions increase and the price decreases. In line with the predictions, I find that the yield of Italian Treasuries increases by 1.2 bps after the release of auction price information, compared to non-information days.In the third chapter, I study the link between prices and repo rates during the subprime crisis. I find that the no-arbitrage relationship between prices and repo rates in Duffie (1996) fares worse during the crisis. However, low-repo-rate bonds have an 18.0% higher probability of being more expensive than identical high-repo-rate bonds during the crisis, compared to only 9.0% before the crisis. Overall, while there are high limits of arbitrage, prices and repo rates feature larger co-movements during the crisis.Dans le premier chapitre, j'examine si les vendeurs à découvert sont mieux informés à propos des enchères d'obligation souveraines que le marché. Je trouve, en moyenne, une forte augmentation de la demande de vente à découvert avant les enchères. Néanmoins, la demande de vente à découvert ne prédit pas une augmentation future du rendement. Les vendeurs à découvert ne sont donc pas mieux informés sur le résultat des enchères et n'interprètent pas mieux que le marché.Dans le second chapitre, je développe et teste un modèle expliquant la baisse graduelle des prix observée dans les jours qui conduisent à des ventes anticipées d'actifs telles que les enchères du Trésor. Dans le modèle, les investisseurs averses au risque anticipent une vente d'actifs dont l'ampleur − et donc le prix − sont incertains. Je montre que les investisseurs font face à un compromis entre se hedger au moyen d'une position longue et spéculer sur la différence entre le prix avant la vente et le prix espéré de vente. En raison du hedging, le prix d'équilibre est supérieur au prix de vente espéré. À l'approche de la date de vente, l'incertitude quant au prix de vente diminue, les positions spéculatives à découvert augmentent et le prix diminue. Conformément aux prédictions, je trouve que le rendement des bons du Trésor italien augmente de 1,2 points de base après la publication d'informations sur le prix d'enchère, par rapport aux jours sans information.Dans le troisième chapitre, j'étudie le lien entre les prix et les taux repo au cours de la crise des subprimes. Je trouve que la relation de non-arbitrage entre les prix et les taux repo de Duffie (1996) performe moins bien pendant la crise. Cependant, les obligations à faible taux repo ont 18.0% plus de chance d'être plus coûteuses que les obligations identiques à taux repo élevé lors de la crise, contre seulement 9.0% avant la crise. Dans l'ensemble, bien qu'il existe de fortes limites à l'arbitrage, les prix et les taux repo présentent des co-mouvements plus importants pendant la crise
Essais en Stratégie Comportementale : L'Adaptation Re-biaisée, Complexité Mal Comprise, et Aliens Cognitifs
No full textThis work centers on the tenet that organizational rationality is bounded: decision makers search, satisfice, and think in the way that is typical (in its integrity) only of humans. The dissertation explores this interplay between search and decision maker’s cognition and demonstrates how biases in characteristic aspects of our thinking can be instruments of behavioral strategy.As a starting point, I take search, sequential generation and evaluation of alternatives, as the first primitive of bounded rationality and complement it with integral elements of human cognition, such as automatic, intuitive thinking, specifically affect heuristic, and imperfect mental representations of reality. With the help of computational models, I track the effects of the corresponding biases (systematic affective preferences and systematic errors in mental representations) over time as organizations adapt to complex environments. This allows me to identify life cycles of the elements of human cognition and show that organizations should manage (rather than eliminate) some biases over time. Finally, I derive predictions and empirically test a subset of my propositions.In conclusion, this work aims to advance the emerging theory of behavioral strategy by jointly considering different primitives of bounded rationality and integrating them with the existing knowledge in organization sciences. A broad question that motivates this work is how organizations can manage the many bounds to human rationality.Ce travail se concentre sur l'idée que la rationalité organisationnelle est limitée: les décideurs recherchent des solutions offrant un minimum de satisfaction et pensent d’une manière qui est typique pour l'homme. La thèse explore cette interaction entre le processus de recherche organisationnelle et la cognition des décideurs et démontre que certains biais (distorsions) dans les aspects caractéristiques de notre pensée peuvent être des instruments de stratégie comportementale.Comme le point de départ, je complète le premier primitif de la rationalité limitée, i.e. la génération et l'évaluation d’alternatives, avec des éléments intégrés de la cognition humaine, tels que la pensée intuitive, spécifiquement l’heuristique d’affect, et des représentations mentales imparfaites. À l'aide de modèles de calcul, j’étudie les effets des biais correspondants à ces éléments de la cognition humaine (préférences affectives et erreurs systématiques dans les représentations mentales) dans le temps lorsque des organisations s'adaptent à des environnements complexes. Cela me permet d'identifier les cycles de vie des éléments de la cognition humaine et de montrer que les organisations devraient gérer (plutôt que d'éliminer) certains biais. Enfin, je fais des propositions et je teste empiriquement un sous-ensemble de mes prédictions.En conclusion, ce travail vise à faire progresser la théorie émergente de la stratégie comportementale en considérant conjointement différents primitifs de la rationalité limitée et en les intégrant aux connaissances existantes en sciences organisationnelles. Une question générale qui motive ce travail est la façon dont les organisations peuvent gérer les nombreuses limites de la rationalité humaine
Principled Disagreements: Adhesion to Intergroup Justice Standards in the Context of the Belgian Linguistic Conflict
No full textInternational audienc
Investigating stress and strain due to operational information systems
No full textInternational audienceDespite the wealth of research examining the influence of technostress on job outcomes, the mechanisms through which technostress generates strain to impact job outcomes is not clear. Grounding our arguments in the theory of threat bias, we investigate the mechanisms explaining this important relationship and delineate useful implications