Portail HAL HEC
Not a member yet
4784 research outputs found
Sort by
The Sources of Researcher Variation in Economics
No full textWe use a rigorous three-stage many-analysts design to assess how different researcher decisions—specifically data cleaning, research design, and the interpretation of a policy question—affect the variation in estimated treatment effects. A total of 146 research teams each completed the same causal inference task three times each: first with few constraints, then using a shared research design, and finally with pre-cleaned data in addition to a specified design. We find that even when analyzing the same data, teams reach different conclusions. In the first stage, the interquartile range (IQR) of the reported policy effect was 3.1 percentage points, with substantial outliers. Surprisingly, the second stage, which restricted research design choices, exhibited slightly higher IQR (4.0 percentage points), largely attributable to imperfect adherence to the prescribed protocol. By contrast, the final stage, featuring standardized data cleaning, narrowed variation in estimated effects, achieving an IQR of 2.4 percentage points. Reported sample sizes also displayed significant convergence under more restrictive conditions, with the IQR dropping from 295,187 in the first stage to 29,144 in the second, and effectively zero by the third. Our findings underscore the critical importance of data cleaning in shaping applied microeconomic results and highlight avenues for future replication efforts
ESG in Platform Markets
No full textPlatforms have radically transformed many markets. Initially perceived as the harbinger of a new economy, platforms today can no longer ignore their impact on the triple bottom line of profit, planet, and people, as their adverse effects on the environment (e.g., massive energy consumption and carbon emissions) and society (e.g., misinformation, hate speech, discrimination, degradation of mental health, and privacy violations) become increasingly evident. As a result, consumers, regulators, and even business leaders demand greater transparency along the environmental (E), social (S), and governance (G) pillars of a platform’s activities. This chapter first introduces a simple economic framework to organize the literature on ESG in platform markets. It then discusses key papers and points out avenues for future research
Wind Power Intermittency and Profitability: The Role of Strategic Bidding
No full textProblem definition. Understanding the impact of wind intermittency on wind farms' profitability is essential to their financial viability. We examine how wind intermittency affects the profitability of wind farms and how this effect is influenced by their bidding strategy. Methodology/results. Employing the Gaussian copula approach on detailed bidding data from wind farms in the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) region, we find that wind intermittency on average increases revenue when average wind is low, but this effect reduces as average wind rises. We further demonstrate how wind farms bidding strategies, characterized by the Slope and Convexity of their bidding curves, influence the impact of intermittency on profitability. Specifically, the results show that a higher Slope magnifies the positive effect of intermittency in low-wind conditions but reduces profitability when wind levels are high. Conversely, increasing Convexity reduces the impact of intermittency in low-wind conditions but heightens it when wind levels are high. Managerial implications. By aligning their bidding strategies with the prevailing wind patterns, wind farm operators can enhance revenues derived from intermittent wind resources. Managers might exploit negative wind shocks more effectively by increasing the Slope under low-wind conditions or leverage Convexity when wind is abundant. These insights offer actionable guidance on tailoring bidding strategies to optimize profitability across diverse wind regimes
Asset Demand Systems via Data Augmentation: Competition and Differentiation in Asset Management
No full textMany institutional investors hold portfolios with few holdings. This makes it challenging to precisely estimate their individual demand. In this paper, I seek to make two contributions. First, I propose a data augmentation technique based on the generation of data-driven and economically interpretable synthetic assets. I show that this data augmentation acts as an adaptive nonlinear shrinkage which automatically adjusts the shape of the penalty to the cost of overfitting faced by the nonlinear demand function estimator. The resulting estimation technique leads to substantial improvement in cross-out-of-sample R2 for estimation of both low-dimensional and high-dimensional demand functions. Second, I use the proposed methodology to construct a measure of investor differentiation. Using the Morningstar mutual fund ratings reform in 2002 as a shock to competition for alpha, I show that mutual funds escape the increased competition intensity by differentiating from their competitors
Émergence et organisation d'un lieu créatif dans le middleground : accélération, effet collatéral et masse critique
No full textInternational audienceThe relationship between territorial concentration and dynamism in the creative industries has been highlighted and studied extensively. The role of places or organizations in a territory's creative dynamism has been analyzed with the notion of middleground. These crucial intermediary groups connect informal communities with institutionalized players. This chapter discusses the dynamics of the emergence and organization of a place within the middleground. We study the case of POUSH, a place located in Paris suburbs renting studios to artists and providing spaces dedicated to artistic exhibition. Our research sheds light on the internal dynamics of the middleground. As fruitful interactions between players cannot be foreseen, the role of creative places is not to create them from scratch. Instead, they need to gather a critical mass of diverse players in a limited space. Such a hub creates an acceleration effect (increase in chances of fruitful partnerships) and a collateral effect (recognition of an artist by the institution benefits to the other artists in the creative place). Both trigger a virtuous circle of social perception: because enough players consider the place as creative, new players are attracted to the place.La relation entre la concentration territoriale et le dynamisme des industries créatives a été mise en évidence et étudiée de manière approfondie. Le rôle des lieux ou des organisations dans le dynamisme créatif d'un territoire a été analysé à l'aide de la notion de "middleground". Ces groupes intermédiaires cruciaux relient les communautés informelles aux acteurs institutionnalisés. Ce chapitre aborde les dynamiques d'émergence et d'organisation d'un lieu au sein du middleground. Nous étudions le cas de POUSH, un lieu situé en banlieue parisienne louant des ateliers à des artistes et proposant des espaces dédiés à l'exposition artistique. Notre recherche met en lumière les dynamiques internes du middleground. Comme il est impossible de prévoir les interactions fructueuses entre les acteurs, le rôle des lieux de création n'est pas de les créer de toutes pièces. Au contraire, ils doivent rassembler une masse critique d'acteurs divers dans un espace limité. Un tel pôle crée un effet d'accélération (augmentation des chances de partenariats fructueux) et un effet collatéral (la reconnaissance d'un artiste par l'institution profite aux autres artistes du lieu de création). Ces deux effets déclenchent un cercle vertueux de perception sociale : parce qu'un nombre suffisant d'acteurs considèrent le lieu comme créatif, de nouveaux acteurs y sont attirés
Trois Essais sur les Plateformes et Communautés Digitales : comment elles Créent de la Valeur pour les Utilisateurs et les Entreprises
No full textThis dissertation investigates various topics that relate to user behavior in online environments, using diverse methodologies. It comprises three papers which are contained in self-contained chapters (chapters I, II, and III), each with its own appendices and bibliography.Chapter I studies how a firm can recruit social media influencers to effectively execute a marketing campaign. We consider different types of influencers that differ in popularity and engagement levels as well as different ways that a firm can partner with influencers (hiring and gifting). We also consider the effect of social learning from consumer reviews, and how that affects the size of the marketing campaign. Moreover, our study incorporates how social media users are more likely to follow influencers that better match their personal interests. Using a complex mathematical model, our study proposes optimal partnerships for firms to establish with influencers to effectively promote new products, contingent upon factors such as engagement, popularity, market composition, and platform characteristics.Chapter II examines how the process of knowledge sharing in online communities changes under an environment of uncertainty. We analyze user characteristics and behaviors that are associated with providing valuable advice, and we investigate how these relationships change when uncertainty arises. Specifically, we study the roles of expertise structure, social network position, and discourse style in the contribution of valuable knowledge and how different user traits and behaviors may be favored under an uncertain environment. To address these questions, we empirically analyze a rich dataset from an online community focused on car leasing in the United States of America that captures the period of the COVID-19 pandemic which significantly disrupted the automobile industry. We find that an environment of uncertainty can create opportunities for outsiders to gain recognition for their unique perspectives.Chapter III investigates how governance structures influence project outcomes in open collaboration settings that rely on voluntary participation. We focus on the context of open-source software development, and we study how project performance is influenced by the level of project openness (i.e., the extent to which community members can participate in project-related decisions). We investigate the trade-off between a closed form of governance wherein the core team’s vision drives the project trajectory and a more open form of governance where users can propose new ideas based on their own skillset. Using an agent-based simulation model, we investigate this tension under different user characteristics and project attributes.Cette thèse examine divers sujets liés au comportement des utilisateurs dans les environnements en ligne, en mobilisant des méthodologies variées. Elle comprend trois articles présentés sous forme de chapitres autonomes (chapitres I, II et III), chacun avec ses propres annexes et sa bibliographie.Le chapitre I étudie comment une entreprise peut recruter des influenceurs sur les réseaux sociaux pour mener efficacement une campagne marketing. Nous considérons différents types d’influenceurs qui se distinguent par leur popularité et leur niveau d’engagement, ainsi que différentes modalités de partenariat entre l’entreprise et les influenceurs (recrutement rémunéré et non rémunéré). Nous prenons également en compte l’effet de l’apprentissage social issu des avis de consommateurs et la manière dont cet effet influence l’ampleur de la campagne marketing. En outre, notre étude intègre le fait que les utilisateurs des réseaux sociaux sont plus susceptibles de suivre les influenceurs qui correspondent davantage à leurs intérêts personnels. À l’aide d’un modèle mathématique complexe, notre étude propose des partenariats optimaux que les entreprises peuvent établir avec des influenceurs pour promouvoir efficacement de nouveaux produits, en fonction de facteurs tels que l’engagement, la popularité, la composition du marché et les caractéristiques de la plateforme.Le chapitre II examine comment le processus de partage des connaissances au sein des communautés en ligne évolue en contexte d’incertitude. Nous analysons les caractéristiques et comportements des utilisateurs associés à la fourniture de conseils de valeur et nous étudions comment ces relations varient lorsque l’incertitude s’accroît. Plus précisément, nous étudions les rôles de la structure d’expertise, de la position dans le réseau social et du style de discours dans la production de connaissances de valeur, ainsi que la manière dont différentes caractéristiques et comportements des utilisateurs peuvent être favorisés en situation d’incertitude. Pour répondre à ces questions, nous analysons empiriquement un riche ensemble de données provenant d’une communauté en ligne consacrée au leasing automobile aux États-Unis d’Amérique, couvrant la période de la pandémie de COVID-19, qui a fortement perturbé l’industrie automobile. Nous constatons qu’un contexte d’incertitude peut créer des opportunités pour des acteurs périphériques d’obtenir une reconnaissance pour leurs perspectives singulières.Le chapitre III étudie comment les structures de gouvernance influencent les résultats des projets dans des contextes de collaboration ouverte reposant sur la participation volontaire. Nous nous concentrons sur le développement de logiciels open source et analysons comment la performance des projets est influencée par le degré d’ouverture du projet (c’est-à-dire la mesure dans laquelle les membres de la communauté peuvent participer aux décisions liées au projet). Nous examinons le compromis entre une forme de gouvernance fermée, dans laquelle la trajectoire du projet est guidée par la vision de l’équipe centrale, et une gouvernance plus ouverte, où les utilisateurs peuvent proposer de nouvelles idées en fonction de leurs compétences. À l’aide d’un modèle de simulation multi-agents, nous analysons cette tension selon différentes caractéristiques des utilisateurs et attributs des projets
"Continuation Funds" Performance and determinants 2018-2023 vintages
No full textContinuation funds are an emerging and increasingly important vehicle for private equity funds to exit their investments while keeping control of the asset. Due to their short history, as well as the notoriously opaque nature of private equity, we know little about the performance of these funds, and even less about the determinants of performance itself. To fill this gap, I combined primary data collection with archival data search, and compiled a data set of 386 Continuation Funds for the 2018-2023 period. For 297 of those, I also collected performance data. Preliminary exploratory analysis reveals little return differences across industries, markets, or type of fund (single- vs multi-asset). In a further effort to understand returns, I compare 133 buyout funds from the 2020 vintage to 149 simulated multi-asset funds: I find that while returns are comparable, the risk profile of single-asset funds is lower, indicating a narrower spread of outcomes
The Risk of Marginal Ranking: A Replication and Extension of Lewis & Carlos (2023)
No full textConventional wisdom suggests that being included in an exclusive ranking leads to positive external evaluations. However, Lewis and Carlos (2023) found that firms situated near the threshold for inclusion on the 100 Best Corporate Citizen ranking were devalued by investors. To assess the generalizability of this surprising finding, we quasi-replicate and extend this finding by applying the same regression discontinuity design to the Fortune 500 ranking. We find corroborating evidence: firms near the bottom of the Fortune 500 receive lower external evaluations, not only from investors but also from industry peers. Our findings therefore quasi-replicate and extend Lewis and Carlos’ (2023) results by showing that negative reactions to marginal ranking are not limited to investors or to a single ranking context
Asset Pricing and Risk Sharing in Complete Markets: An Experimental Investigation
No full textNational audienceWe study asset pricing and risk sharing in experimental financial markets. We design our experiment to test the key equilibrium implications of rational choice and competitive behavior in complete markets without making parametric assumptions on preferences. We find that participants behave competitively but deviate from rationality, as around 25% of their actions are first-order stochastically dominated. We propose a random-choice model predicting that, as the number of participants grows large, prices and average per-participant trades converge to those in the rational-choice competitive equilibrium. This prediction is supported by our experimental data. We structurally estimate a special case of the random-choice model with CRRA utilities and logit weighting functions and find that only around 80% of participants benefit from participating in the market
The Bank Liquidity Creation and Equity Capital Puzzle
No full textWe revisit the bank capital-liquidity creation debate using quarterly US bank data for 20 years from 2003:Q1-2022:Q4, investigating for first time how relations differ for bank outputs versus inputs and for major outputs and inputs. We find a negative overall relation between capital and liquidity creation for small banks, consistent with the Financial Fragility-Crowding Out (FFCO) Hypothesis and a positive relation for large banks, consistent with the Risk Absorption (RA) Hypothesis. Key contributions are that we find much of the explanation of the size-class difference lies in the different effects for outputs versus inputs and for major outputs and inputs