Journals Poznań University of Economics and Business
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Modèle logistique de désertion à travers des techniques de régression et un arbre de décision pour l\u27efficience dans la destination des ressources : Le cas d\u27une université privée chilienne
No full textWhen education has become a fundamental right that must be maintained and consolidated, a problem arises that has given rise to numerous academic discussions and that seeks to consider holistically and critically the phenomenon of the growing massification of training offers, manifested in the exponential increase in access to postgraduate studies. Some approaches postulate that, not only is it necessary to implement policies to increase access coverage, but it is also necessary to address the quality of education, considering desertion and retention. In this context, this research aims to establish an analytical model that allows the development of retention and the prevention of the causes of desertion. For this purpose, we will use the methodology of supervised learning to determine the variables of analysis through regression techniques and a decision tree, creating a logistic model of desertion, capable of improving the efficiency in the destination of resources. Finally, this work will aim to provide a better understanding of the phenomena associated with the desertion and retention of students, to help in the management and decision-making process by institutions of higher education.(original abstract)When education has become a fundamental right that must be maintained and consolidated, a problem arises that has given rise to numerous academic discussions and that seeks to consider holistically and critically the phenomenon of the growing massification of training offers, manifested in the exponential increase in access to postgraduate studies. Some approaches postulate that, not only is it necessary to implement policies to increase access coverage, but it is also necessary to address the quality of education, considering desertion and retention. In this context, this research aims to establish an analytical model that allows the development of retention and the prevention of the causes of desertion. For this purpose, we will use the methodology of supervised learning to determine the variables of analysis through regression techniques and a decision tree, creating a logistic model of desertion, capable of improving the efficiency in the destination of resources. Finally, this work will aim to provide a better understanding of the phenomena associated withthe desertion and retention of students, to help in the management and decision-making process by institutions of higher education.Lorsque l\u27éducation est devenue un droit fondamental qu\u27il faut conserver et consolider, une problématique apparait, qui a suscité de nombreuses discussions académiques et qui prétend considérer de manière holistique et critique le phénomène de massification croissante des offres de formation, manifesté dans l\u27augmentation exponentielle de l\u27accès au troisième cycle. Certaines approches postulent que, non seulement il est nécessaire d\u27implémenter des politiques pour amplifier la couverture de l\u27accès, mais il faut aussi se pencher sur la qualité de l\u27éducation, en considérant la désertion et la rétention universitaire. Dans ce contexte, cette recherche vise à établir un modèle d\u27analyse qui permette le développement de la rétention et la prévention des causes de désertion. Nous emploierons pour cela la méthodologie d\u27apprentissage supervisé déterminant les variables d\u27analyse à travers las techniques de régression et un arbre de décision, en créant un modèle logistique de désertion, capable d\u27améliorer l\u27efficience dans la destination de ressources. Finalement, ce travail visera à apporter une meilleure compréhension des phénomènes associés à la désertion et la rétention universitaire, pour aider dans la gestion et le processus de prise de décisions par les institutions d\u27enseignement supérieur
Préparation estimée et vulnérabilité des pays face à la pandémie de COVID-19: Elaboration et approbation de l\u27Index global
No full textDue to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and its social-economic consequences, the estimation role of preparedness and vulnerability has risen significantly. This paper complements existing investigations in the field of international comparisons and multidimensional rankings, presenting the results of a complex evaluation of the national level of preparedness and vulnerability in terms of pandemics based on the multidimensional index proposed by the authors. The main objective of the proposed research was to estimate the national level of preparedness and vulnerability for the pandemic from a complex point of view. An overall multidimensional index was calculated and used for complying countries' ranking based on the elaborated methodology. The proposed index allowed the authors to conclude that there is a significant difference in the overall level of preparedness for a pandemic and disproportion between certain system elements for each country. Analysis of existing databases, open sources, and reports highlighted the necessity to extend the existing list of indicators to evaluate the level of vulnerability. The expediency of using the proposed index is proved by the statistical correlation analysis between subindexes and the level of morbidity and mortality due to the COVID-19. The proposed overall index is used for multidimensional grouping and cluster analysis to estimate the economic consequences of the pandemic. The results of the cluster analysis allowed creating four groups of the countries, namely : (1) highly vulnerable countries with a low level of preparedness ; (2) countries with a low level of preparedness and vulnerability ; (3) countries with a high level of preparedness and vulnerability ; (4) countries with a low level of vulnerability and a high level of preparedness. The comparative analysis of economical outcomes (such as annual change of GDP in 2020-2019 to average annual GDP change for 2019-2017), unemployment rate change, and inflation change presented in the research highlighted disproportions of the pandemic influence by country's groups.(original abstract)Due to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and its social-economic consequences, the estimation role of preparedness and vulnerability has risen significantly. This paper complements existing investigations in the field of international comparisons and multidimensional rankings, presenting the results of a complex evaluation of the national level of preparedness and vulnerability in terms of pandemics based on the multidimensional index proposed by the authors. The main objective of the proposed research was to estimate the national level of preparedness and vulnerability for the pandemic from a complex point of view. An overall multidimensional index was calculated and used for complying countries ’ ranking based on the elaborated methodology. The proposed index allowed the authors to conclude that there is a significant difference in the overall level of preparedness for a pandemic and disproportion between certain system elements for each country. Analysis of existing databases, open sources, and reports highlighted the necessity to extend the existing list of indicators to evaluate the level of vulnerability. The expediency of using the proposed index is proved by the statistical correlation analysis between subindexes and the level of morbidity and mortality due to the COVID-19. The proposed overall index is used for multidimensional grouping and cluster analysis to estimate the economic consequences of the pandemic. The results of the cluster analysis allowed creating four groups of the countries, namely : (1) highly vulnerable countries with a low level of preparedness ; (2) countries with a low level of preparedness and vulnerability ; (3) countries with a high level of preparedness and vulnerability ; (4) countries with a low level of vulnerability and a high level of preparedness. The comparative analysis of economical outcomes (such as annual change of GDP in 2020–2019 to average annual GDP change for 2019–2017), unemployment rate change, and inflation change presented in the research highlighted disproportions of the pandemic influence by country’s groups.La pandémie de COVID-19 et ses conséquences socio-économiques ont provoqué une augmentation notable du rôle de l\u27estimation de la préparation et la vulnérabilité des pays. Cela s\u27ajoute aux investigations existantes dans le cadre des ont internationales et des classements multidimensionnels, et présente des résultats d\u27évaluation complexe au niveau national de la préparation et la vulnérabilité face à la pandémie, à partir des index multidimensionnels proposés par les auteurs. L\u27objectif de cette recherche était d\u27estimer le niveau de préparation national et la vulnérabilité d\u27un point de vue complexe. Un index multidimensionnel global a été calculé et utilisé pour donner un classement des pays à partir de cette méthodologie. L\u27index a permis aux auteurs de conclure qu\u27il y a une différence importante dans le niveau de préparation face à une pandémie et une disproportion entre certains éléments du système pour chaque pays. L\u27analyse des données, les sources et les rapports ont souligné le besoin d\u27étendre la liste des indicateurs pour évaluer le niveau de vulnérabilité. L\u27opportunité d\u27utiliser cet index est prouvée par l\u27analyse corrélative statistique entre les sous-index et le niveau de morbidité et mortalité due au COVID-19. L\u27index est utilisé pour former des groupes multidimensionnels et le partitionnement de données permet d\u27estimer les conséquences économiques de la pandémie. Les résultats du partitionnement de données ont permis de former quatre groupes de pays : (1) très vulnérables avec faible niveau de préparation ; (2) vulnérables avec faible niveau de préparation ; (3) vulnérables avec haut niveau de préparation ; (4) peu vulnérables avec haut niveau de préparation. L\u27analyse comparative des conséquences économiques (changement annuel PIB en 2020-2019 par rapport à PIB en 2019-2017), taux de chômage et changement de l\u27inflation ont montré des disproportions de l\u27influence de la pandémie par groupes de pays
Analyse exploratoire spatiale des effets sanitaires et économiques de la COVID-19 à partir de données mondiales
Get PDFPurpose : This article analyses the health and economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Design/methodology/approach : The sample includes 132 countries, and the methodology is based on Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis. The calculation of the output gap by the Hodrick-Prescott filter allows to highlight the economic impact of the health crisis, through the output gaps in 2020. The health variable, for its part, is measured by the incidence rates of COVID-19. Findings : The results of the estimations validated the hypothesis of spatial autocorrelation for both the health and economic variables. Examination of the Moran scatter plot confirms the positive local spatial association pattern, i.e. the existence of similarities between neighbouring countries in the manifestation of the pandemic and spatial heterogeneity between groups of countries. More specifically, the results show the existence of clusters with low levels of COVID-19 incidence in Africa and Asia, compared with Europe and North America. In addition, while high-income countries were generally more affected in terms of health, they developed greater economic resilience. Originality/value : These results show that taking space into account could provide a better understanding of the dynamics of health and economic shocks.(original abstract)Purpose : This article analyses the health and economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Design/methodology/approach : The sample includes 132 countries, and the methodology is based on Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis. The calculation of the output gap by the Hodrick-Prescott filter allows to highlight the economic impact of the health crisis, through the output gaps in 2020. The health variable, for its part, is measured by the incidence rates of COVID-19.
Findings : The results of the estimations validated the hypothesis of spatial autocorrelation for both the health and economic variables. Examination of the Moran scatter plot confirms the positive local spatial association pattern, i.e. the existence of similarities between neighbouring countries in the manifestation of the pandemic and spatial heterogeneity between groups of countries. More specifically, the results show the existence of clusters with low levels of COVID-19 incidence in Africa and Asia, compared with Europe and North America. In addition, while high-income countries were generally more affected in terms of health, they developed greater economic resilience.
Originality/value : These results show that taking space into account could provide a better understanding of the dynamics of health and economic shocks.L\u27objectif : L\u27objectif de cet article est d\u27analyser les effets sanitaires et économiques de la pandémie de COVID-19.
Conception/méthodologie/approche : L\u27échantillon est composé de 132 pays et la méthodologie se fonde sur l \u27 analyse exploratoire des données spatiales. Le calcul de l\u27output gap par la méthode de Hodrick-Prescott a permis de ressortir les conséquences économiques de la crise sanitaire, à travers les écarts de production pour l\u27année 2020. La variable sanitaire, quant à elle, est mesurée par le taux d\u27incidence de la COVID-19 et la mortalité.
Résultats: Les résultats des estimations ont permis de valider l\u27hypothèse d\u27autocorrélation spatiale aussi bien pour la variable sanitaire que pour la variable économique. L\u27examen du diagramme de Moran confirme le schéma d\u27association spatiale local positif, c\u27est-à-dire l\u27existence à la fois de similitudes entre pays voisins dans la manifestation de la pandémie et d\u27hétérogénéité spatiale entre les groupes de pays. De manière plus précise, les résultats montrent l\u27existence de clusters avec de faibles niveaux d\u27incidence de la COVID-19 en Afrique et en Asie, comparativement à l\u27Europe et à l\u27Amérique du Nord. De plus, si les pays à revenu élevé ont généralement été davantage touchés sur le plan sanitaire, ils ont toutefois développé une plus grande résilience économique.
Originalité/valeur : Ces résultats montrent que la prise en compte de l\u27espace pourrait permettre de mieux comprendre la dynamique des chocs sanitaires et économiques
À propos du manque excessif de la liberté économique en Afrique dans les années 2017-2023
No full textPurpose : The aim of this article is to describe and assess the state of economic freedom in African countries.3 The basis of inference is based on the coefficients of economic freedom published since 1995 by The Heritage Foundation in Washington and Wall Street Journal for 184 countries around the world. The comparative analysis is carried out in African countries divided into four geographic regions : Southern Africa, North and Central Africa, East Africa and West Africa during the years 2017-2023.4 Design/methodology/approach : In empirical research we use the methods of correlation analysis, σ-convergence, σ-divergence and multivariate comparative analysis. The R program and the dtw and dtwclust packages are also applied. As a result, an in-depth assessment of the evolution of economic freedom was carried out in the 49 countries assessed, separately and in the four groups of countries analysed. Findings : It has been shown that in the case of African countries in the years 2017-2023, we are generally facing stagnation or more or less chaotic changes in various aspects of economic freedom. It seems that both the governments of African countries as well as the international institutions which support the development of African countries should rely more widely than before on the achievements of economic thought in the field of social choices, as well as on the role of economic institutions and freedom in economic development. Originality/value : The article provides comprehensive knowledge on economic freedom for the vast majority of African countries in terms of general index of economic freedom and twelve partial indices of economic freedom. Keywords : economic freedom, σ-convergence and σ-divergence analysis, multidimensional comparative analysis, clusters, dendrograms.(original abstract)Purpose : The aim of this article is to describe and assess the state of economic freedom in African countries.3 The basis of inference is based on the coefficients of economic freedom published since 1995 by The Heritage Foundation in Washington and Wall Street Journal for 184 countries around the world. The comparative analysis is carried out in African countries divided into four geographic regions : Southern Africa, North and Central Africa, East Africa and West Africa during the years 2017–2023.4
Design/methodology/approach : In empirical research we use the methods of correlation analysis, σ-convergence, σ-divergence and multivariate comparative analysis. The R program and the dtw and dtwclust packages are also applied. As a result, an in-depth assessment of the evolution of economic freedom was carried out in the 49 countries assessed, separately and in the four groups of countries analysed.
Findings : It has been shown that in the case of African countries in the years 2017–2023, we are generally facing stagnation or more or less chaotic changes in various aspects of economic freedom. It seems that both the governments of African countries as well as the international institutions which support the development of African countries should rely more widely than before on the achievements of economic thought in the field of social choices, as well as on the role of economic institutions and freedom in economic devel- opment.
Originality/value : The article provides comprehensive knowledge on economic freedom for the vast majority of African countries in terms of general index of economic freedom and twelve partial indices of economic freedom.L\u27Objectif : Le but de cet article est de décrire et d\u27évaluer l\u27état de la liberté économique dans les pays d\u27Afrique5 . La base d\u27inférence est fondée sur les coefficients de liberté économique publiés depuis 1995 par The Heritage Foundation à Washington et Wall Street Journal pour 184 pays à travers le monde. L\u27analyse comparative est effectuée dans les pays africains divisés en quatre régions geographiques : Afrique Australe, Afrique du Nord et Afrique Centrale, Afrique de l\u27Est et l\u27Afrique de l\u27Ouest durant les années 2017-20236 .
Conception/méthodologie/approche : Dans la recherche empirique on utilise les méthodes d\u27analyse de corrélation, σ-convergence, σ-divergence et d\u27analyse comparative multivariée. Le programme R et les packages dtw et dtwclust sont également appliqués. En conséquence, une évaluation approfondie de l\u27évolution de la liberté économique a été réalisée dans les 49 pays évalués, séparément et dans les quatres groupes de pays analysés.
Résultats : Il a été montré que dans le cas des pays africains dans les années 2017-2023, nous sommes généralement confrontés à une stagnation ou à des changements plus ou moins chaotiques dans divers aspects de la liberté économique. Il semble que tant les gouvernements des pays africains ainsi que les institutions internationales qui soutiennent le développement des pays africains devraient s\u27appuyer plus largement qu\u27auparavant sur les acquis de la pensée économique dans le domaine des choix sociaux, ainsi que sur le rôle des institutions économiques et de la liberté dans le développement économique.
Originalité/valeur : L\u27article fournit des connaissances complètes sur la liberté économique pour la grande majorité des pays africains en termes d\u27indice général de liberté économique et de douze indices partiels de liberté économique
Capital humain et sécurité alimentaire des ménages au Togo
No full textPurpose : The purpose of this paper is to analyse the effect of human capital on household food security in Togo. Design/methodology/approach : The multinomial logit model was employed using data from the 2015 QUIBB survey conducted among two thousand four hundred (2,400) households at Togo. Findings : The results show that 8.17% of households in Togo experience total food insecurity. Furthermore, 4.74% and 35.09% of them are respectively considered to be in transient food insecurity based on food consumption scores and food expenses. Additionally, the estimation of the multinomial logit model reveals that when the household head is educated or when the household has easy access to a healthcare center, it reduces the risk of food insecurity in the household. Therefore, any policy aimed at investing in human capital while prioritizing vulnerable groups in Togo would lead to an improvement in their food security status. Originality/value : This research highlights the contribution of human capital to food security, using a composite index to capture household food security in Togo.(original abstract)Purpose : The purpose of this paper is to analyse the effect of human capital on household food security in Togo.
Design/methodology/approach : The multinomial logit model was employed using data from the 2015 QUIBB survey conducted among two thousand four hundred (2,400) households at Togo.
Findings : The results show that 8.17% of households in Togo experience total food insecurity. Furthermore, 4.74% and 35.09% of them are respectively considered to be in transient food insecurity based on food consumption scores and food expenses. Additionally, the estimation of the multinomial logit model reveals that when the household head is educated or when the household has easy access to a healthcare center, it reduces the risk of food insecurity in the household. Therefore, any policy aimed at investing in human capital while prioritizing vulnerable groups in Togo would lead to an improvement in their food security status.
Originality/value : This research highlights the contribution of human capital to food security, using a composite index to capture household food security in Togo.L\u27objectif : L\u27objectif de ce papier est d\u27analyser l\u27effet du capital humain sur la sécurité alimentaire des ménages au Togo. Conception/méthodologie/approche : Le modèle logit multinomial a été utilisé en se basant sur les données de l\u27enquête QUIBB 2015 réalisées auprès de deux mille quatre cents (2400) ménages au Togo.
Résultats : Les résultats montrent que 8,17% des ménages au Togo sont en insécurité alimentaire totale. Par ailleurs, 4,74% et 35,09% d\u27entre eux sont respectivement considérés comme étant en insécurité alimentaire transitoire sur la base des scores de consommation alimentaire et des dépenses alimentaires. En outre, l\u27estimation du modèle logit multinomial révèle que lorsque le chef du ménage est éduqué ou que le ménage a une facilité d\u27accès à un centre de santé, cela réduit le risque d\u27insécurité alimentaire dans le ménage. Ainsi, toute politique visant un investissement en capital humain, tout en privilégiant les groupes vulnérables au Togo permettrait une amélioration de leur statut de sécurité alimentaire.
Originalité/valeur : Cette recherche met en exergue la contribution du capital humain à la sécurité alimentaire en se basant sur l\u27indice composite pour capter la sécurité alimentaire des ménages au Togo
Tariffs and welfare: A common, invalid anti-tariff argument
Get PDFPresident Trump imposed tariffs in 2017 on several of China’s exports, notably steel. Many papers opposed these tariffs by using a common, invalid argument: rather than arguing these tariffs reduced U.S. welfare, they argue U.S. consumers and businesses pay the tariffs, a different, rhetorical issue. Their main evidence of harm is increases in imported goods’ after-tariff U.S. prices, especially relative to other goods’ U.S. prices. In a standard, small general equilibrium model (two countries, two goods, two factors), this price evidence is wholly ambiguous—it is even consistent with the view that Trump’s tariff was optimal, increasing U.S. welfare. Even sophisticated papers are similarly ambiguous. All fail because they neglect how government uses tariff revenue. Relying on fallacious arguments makes the free-trade position look weak and encourages protectionism
Assessment of the immigrants’ impact on Slovak economy
No full textThe migration process is becoming more and more intensive in European region. There are different opinions about effects from immigration on country economy. Most of them show the positive effect via fulfilling deficit in labour market and tax payments. From the other hand, there is negative long-term effect on social security system because of poor integration of immigrants into domestic population. This paper analyses effects from immigration based on United nations National transfer accounts methodology invented by Lee and Mason. This methodology is called to break down system of national accounts with respect to age groups or generations and shows economic flows between them. Findings of this paper show that earnings and consumption behaviour of immigrants and natives in Slovakia differs – immigrants work after retirement age, earn more and consume less, what leads to positive effects in aggregate life cycle deficit
Meta-Biplot comme mesure des variables de protection sociale pour les pays européens et latinoaméricains
No full textWithin the framework of Social Security, pension systems are a social protection mechanism whose purpose is to provide income to people who lose their self-generating capacity due to old age (old-age rights and benefits), disability (disability rights and benefits), or death of one of the primary sources of income of a family (survivors ' rights and benefits). Social protection systems occupy a prominent place in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the United Nations, which is reflected in its goal 1.3, where it is urged to implement social protection systems and increment the coverage of the vulnerable population. In terms of social security, European countries have the most experience. Latin America has been one of the forerunners in introducing individual capitalization schemes as a mandatory component in its pension systems for more than 30 years. When Chile abandoned its pay-as-you-go pension system for an individual capitalization system, several countries in Latin America and Europe followed that path. With well-designed and implemented social protection systems, countries can strengthen human capital, improve productivity, reduce inequalities, strengthen resilience, and end the cycle of intergenerational poverty.(original abstract)Within the framework of Social Security, pension systems are a social protection mechanism whose purpose is to provide income to people who lose their self-generating capacity due to old age (old-age rights and benefits), disability (disability rights and benefits), or death of one of the primary sources of income of a family (survivors ’ rights and benefits). Social protection systems occupy a prominent place in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the United Nations, which is reflected in its goal 1.3, where it is urged to implement social protection systems and increment the coverage of the vulnerable population. In terms of social security, European countries have the most experience. Latin America has been one of the forerunners in introducing individual capitalization schemes as a mandatory component in its pension systems for more than 30 years. When Chile abandoned its pay-as-you-go pension system for an individual capitalization system, several countries in Latin America and Europe followed that path. With well-designed and implemented social protection systems, countries can strengthen human capital, improve productivity, reduce inequalities, strengthen resilience, and end the cycle of intergenerational poverty.Dans le cadre de la sécurité sociale, les systèmes de pensions constituent des mécanismes de protection sociale offrant des revenus aux personnes qui perdent leur capacité d\u27auto-génération en raison de leur âge (droits et bénéfices de la vieillesse), de leur incapacité (droits et bénéfices d\u27invalidité) ou du décès d\u27une des sources principales de revenus d\u27une famille (droits et bénéfices de survie). Les systèmes de protection sociale occupent une place essentielle dans les Objectifs de Développement Durable des Nations Unies, ce que l\u27on note dans l\u27objectif 1.3 qui enjoint à mettre en pratique des mesures pour la protection sociale et à amplifier la couverture pour la population vulnérable. En ce qui concerne la Sécurité Sociale, les pays européens sont ceux qui ont le plus d\u27expérience. Quant à l\u27Amérique Latine, elle a été l\u27une des premières à introduire dans ses systèmes de pensions des schémas de capitalisation individuelle comme composant obligatoire depuis déjà plus de 30 ans, lorsque le Chili abandonna son système prévisionnel de distribution pour un de capitalisation individuelle. Ensuite, plusieurs pays en Amérique latine et en Europe suivirent le même chemin. Avec des systèmes de protection sociale bien conçus et implémentés, les pays peuvent renforcer le capital humain et améliorer la productivité, réduire les inégalités, stimuler la résilience et mettre fin au cycle de la pauvreté intergénérationnelle
Digital public transport in New Economy – contemporary mobility trends
Get PDFPublic transport is treated as a nerve of all city systems. Changing cities need proper transport – contemporary trends play important role in the development of public transport in a requiring environment. In particular, the development of public transport means today phenomena such as IT systems, big data, alternative energy sources, autonomous mobility, transport effectiveness, sharing economy and personal mobility (micromobility). Author presents contemporary trends that affect cities mobility. The macroeconomic context was also taken into account – the COVID-19 pandemia, inflation, migration trends. Changes in the demand and supply of transport services have become one of the challenges for cities in the new, digital, post-pandemic perspective.
The purpose of this article is to review current trends in public transport development and mobility changes. The article is an attempt to answer the questions: what is the impact of digitization and technology development on the development of public transport? How are contemporary social, economic and political problems and are they strongly changing public transport? Article is based at critical analysis of literature and selected case studies. The result of research work is the indication of the most important directions for the development of public transport and the related risks and opportunities