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Presidential Nomination Forecasting 2024: Classic Components in an Atypical Race
Get PDFThe topic of American presidential elections has remained central to political discussions since the founding fathers drafted the Constitution. Article Two, Section One of the Constitution lays out the guidelines for presidential elections, yet Article Two neglects to mention the process of how to nominate candidates for the presidential race. Lacking Constitutional guidance, early presidential nomination conventions of the parties in the 19th century and early 20th century did not reflect ideals of democracy. The delegates that voted at the conventions were selected by party insiders and their votes reflected the sentiments of the party bosses, disregarding the preferences of the general voters. Party bosses at the time were accused of bribing delegates to vote a certain way with the promise of power and money. (Reuters, 2016) Votes at this time were outright bought; money has always played a large part in presidential elections.
Presidential nomination reform started with President Theodore Roosevelt in 1912. Roosevelt previously held office twice, and he was seeking his third re-election. Roosevelt went on to win nine out of ten Republican primaries yet failed to secure the nomination. As previous nomination conventions went, the party bosses controlled the delegates’ votes and William Howard Taft secured the Republican nomination. Roosevelt’s shortcomings led to the formation of the Progressive Party, or the Bull Moose Party, which chose Roosevelt as their presidential candidate. Although Roosevelt did not win the presidency in 1912, Americans faced the corruption of presidential nominations and demanded reforms. The power was put in the hands of the voters, no longer the party bosses, as primaries were adopted in nearly every state. The primaries allowed for the voters to choose their delegate, and as a result, primaries became a more relevant and influential part of presidential elections. Candidates seeking party nomination now cater their campaigns to early primaries such as New Hampshire and South Carolina, as well as the Iowa Caucus, to ensure early success. Primary season will not be a triumph for all who enter the race seeking party nomination; some candidates will drop out of the race during this time if they are not successful. In the 2024 election cycle, candidates Vivek Ramaswamy and Ron DeSantis dropped out after their third and fourth-place finishes in Iowa. As primary season continues, voters will have a clearer indication of the candidate that has the potential to be chosen as a strong contender for President of the United States.
The procedure for selecting a nominee for the presidential election is both long and complex; political scientists and researchers work to identify significant trends and collect data throughout the nomination process. Many determinants play a role in the outcome of presidential party nominations throughout different stages of the election. Several factors contribute to this including campaign expenditures, cash reserves, polling results, momentum of a campaign, and endorsements given by party elites. Electoral activities in the pre-primary stage can play a more significant role than in later stages research has found. (Dowdle et al., 2016) Specifically regarding the pre-primary period, the activities include campaign fundraising, expenditures, elite support, polls, cash on hand, and early campaign organization.
When a candidate has high fundraising and organization, this is referred to as “frontloading” their campaign. Frontloading is a significant predictor of building momentum in the early stages of the campaign. Momentum plays a large role in setting the tone of the race and creating a horse race for early media coverage, yet it is difficult to measure momentum statistically. Fundraising, expenditures, elite endorsements, and polls are variables that can be measured quantitatively before the primaries begin. Political scientists argue these components may have a larger effect on outcomes than primary results. In the literature review, these components and their significance will be explored further. Given the importance and complexity of presidential nominations, this study aims to investigate the determinants that predict success in a presidential election.
My research will focus on the current election cycle, the 2024 Republican nomination contest. President Joe Biden is running for re-election; thus the Democrat nomination will be excluded from my research. As of March 6, 2024, all Republican candidates (with the exclusion of Donald Trump) had dropped out of the race. Nikki Haley decided to end her campaign after winning the singular state of Vermont on Super Tuesday, and she was the last candidate left in the race. The elimination of the other candidates leaves former President Donald Trump as the front-runner and only option for the Republican nomination. The circumstances surrounding the 2024 race for the Republican nomination are unprecedented, suggesting different factors could influence the outcome in ways not observed in previous nomination contests. The atypicality of this race raises the potential for variables that have been significant in the past to be insignificant, or vice versa
A Meta-Analysis for Laboratory Diagnostics for Coccidioidomycosis
Get PDFCoccidioidomycosis, commonly referred to as Valley Fever, is a fungal infection found in arid regions of the southwestern United States and Mexico. Infection occurs through inhalation of airborne spores from Coccidioides species, Coccidioides immitis and/or Coccidioides posadasii, and proceeds in both pulmonary and disseminated fashions. Approximately 60% of patients with coccidioidomycosis remain asymptomatic, while 40% will experience symptoms. Within the literature, there are no papers that summarize sensitivity and specificity values between different tests; therefore, this paper presents sensitivity and specificity results across different tests and companies (Meridian, IMMY, and MiraVista)
Leadership and Culture: How Cintas Achieves Its Founder’s Vision Nearly 100 Years Later
No full textDuring my ten-week internship at Cintas in Springdale, Arkansas, as a Management Trainee Intern, I learned the details of a Fortune 500 company’s operations. The immersive program provided a comprehensive view of various departments, emphasizing Cintas\u27 commitment to our unique corporate culture outlined in Richard T. Farmer\u27s book, Spirit is the Difference. The role of leadership, exemplified by General Manager Ryan Scogin, stood out, with a focus on inspiration, motivation, and positive work culture. I highlight the success of a complex reroute project, showcasing collaborative efforts, meticulous planning, and effective communication among Cintas’ partners. As an intern, I gained an understanding of Cintas\u27 operations, from service routes and plant management to engaging with a variety of partners. The positive feedback and efficiency improvements from the reroute project played a pivotal role in securing my future Management Trainee position with Cintas. I conclude with anticipation and excitement about joining Cintas in June 2024, recognizing Cintas\u27 positive work culture and commitment to personal growth as an ideal company for me to establish my career
Using Convolutional Neural Networks for Autonomous Drone Navigation
Get PDFUnmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), more commonly known as drones, serve various purposes, notably in military applications. Consequently, there arises a need for navigation methods impervious to intercepted signals [1]. Previous research has explored numerous solutions, including machine learning. This paper delves into a specific machine learning approach employing a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to discern image locations [2]. It elucidates the conversion of a CNN model between two machine learning libraries and presents results from multiple experiments examining parameters and factors influencing the approach\u27s efficacy. These experiments encompass testing different data sources, image quantities, and processing pipelines to gauge their impact on CNN performance using datasets from the geographically diverse Northwest Arkansas region [3,4]
The Effect of Hormonal Contraceptive Use on Dominance and Prestige Tactics
Get PDFThis study was designed to investigate the relationship between hormonal contraceptives and prestige and dominance status-seeking tactics. Existing literature has examined how the hormones estrogen and progesterone, especially in relation to the fertile window of the menstrual cycle, are associated with prestige and dominance but has yet to look in depth at how hormonal contraceptives might alter this impact. The current study asked participants to complete a 22- item questionnaire assessing dominance and prestige. I hypothesized that women on hormonal contraceptives would have lower scores for prestige and dominance compared to women who are naturally cycling. The results did not support either hypothesis. Women on hormonal contraceptives scored significantly higher for both prestige and dominance compared to naturally cycling women. Notably, I did not divide hormonal contraceptive users by method of delivery or naturally cycling women by cycle phase. In conclusion, further research must be done to determine the effects the different delivery methods may have on prestige and dominance tactics and other behavioral effects that may be unknown