Publikationsserver der Fachhochschule des BFI Wien
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Point-in-time and through-the-cycle PDs in IFRS 9
No full textThe topic of this master thesis is the implementation of the new International Financial Reporting Standard 9 (IFRS 9) with special focus on probabilities of default. The new standard, which has to be implemented on 1st of January 2018, involves a new regulation for impairment including a definition of 12-month expected credit losses and life-time expected losses. Moreover, a new feature of the regulation is the dif-ferentiation in impairment between 3 stages with their own characteristics. Thus, new methods for probabilities of default might be necessary in order to calculate life-time and 12-month expected losses.
The standard does not explicitly determine which method to use, however, forward-looking information should be included. Hence, through-the-cycle or point-in-time probabilities of default might be used. In order to show the relatedness of these two probabilities of defaults types, the paper presents a transformation of probabilities of defaults from through-the-cycle into point-in-time probabilities. Therefore, the credit metrics model, first published in 1997 by JP Morgan, is used.
The results show, that the time horizon plays an essential role for the expected credit losses. Moreover, it is examined that point-in-time probabilities of default are in general higher than through-the-cycle probabilities of default. Hence, using point-in-time estimates risk provisions will increase, however, the current economic state is also better reflected within the estimates. In addition, the awareness of entities regarding future developments and impacts of financial crisis will be strengthened.Masterarbeit Wien, Fachhochschule des BFI Wien 201
Auswirkungen des gesellschaftlichen Wandels auf die Beschäftigungssituation in österreichischen Transportund Logistikunternehmen
No full textThe purpose of this thesis is to assess the implications of societal change on the transport- and logistics sector in Austria. This includes, but is not limited to, the topics “demographic change”, “refugee crisis”, “change in economic behavior”, “lifelong learning” and others. For this purpose, the author lays focus on analyzing actual statistical data that reflects these changes in figures. Based on this analysis the author will try to derive a cause-and-effect relationship model and to project further development based on actual economic and legislative conditions. Finally, this model is being discussed with experts of the relevant sectors as well as with experts of the labor market and political stakeholders. The results of these Interviews in conjunction with the analysis of relevant literature show, that the main impact on the logistics sector are similar to other economic sectors. That being a possible lack of skilled employees, increase of unemployment rates among poorly or uneducated people, problems to recruit personnel for unattractive jobs and a need for increased efforts in training employees. Based on these results the author then develops recommended actions for all involved parties on company- as well as on political level.Wien, Fachhochschule des BFI Wien, Masterarb., 201
Die Business-Analyse in der lernenden Organisation : ein theoretischer Synergie-Ansatz
No full textToday's conditions of a constantly changing world are a central challenge for organizations as well as individuals. This study addresses this challenge and attempts to approach this challenge by the concept of learning organizations. These organizations can be assumed to be adaptable by permanently changing related to the given environment. The study examines the contribution that business analysis can make to learning organizations. For this purpose, literature about the learning organization and literature about business analysis was examined in order to reveal similarities. The result of the study indicates communication as an important contribution to the learning organization by business analysis. The interface function of business analysis enables new possibilities of communication and collaboration in the organization, which can lead to joint learning of individuals in the organization. This can be the basis for a learning organizationWien, Fachhochschule des BFI Wien, Diplomarb., 201
Working paper series by the University of Applied Sciences bfi Vienna / Management des Unerwarteten : eine organisationstheoretische Sicht
No full textModerne Organisationen versuchen, das Unerwartete in den Griff zu bekommen, indem sie Veränderungen so früh wie möglich vorgreifen. Infolgedessen versuchen einige Organisationen, Komplexität zu bewältigen, indem sie sie in definierte, kontrollierbare Strukturen und Prozesse überführen, die darauf abzielen, die gewünschten strategischen Ergebnisse in einer vorhersagbaren und zuverlässigen Weise zu liefern. Andere vertrauen auf ein hohes Maß an Freiheit auf ausführender und Team-Ebene, damit mit schnelleren Entscheidungen und selbstbestimmter Wahl erfolgreich auf unerwartete Ereignisse reagiert werden kann. Beide Lösungen verlangen nach neuen Verfahren, um das Unerwartete zu bewältigen und konzentrieren sich auf die Notwendigkeit, Struktur und Flexibilität zu arrangieren. Dieser konzeptionelle Artikel diskutiert, welche Strukturen für Organisationen in komplexen oder sogar chaotischen Umgebungen sinnvoll sind. Ich konzentriere mich auf das Team und die organisatorische Ebene sowie auf die Interaktion zwischen diesen beiden. Durch die Kombination von theoretischen Konzepten der Verhaltens- und Organisationsforschung, insbesondere der Entscheidungsfindung auf der Basis von Systemtheorie, situation awareness und sensemaking, möchte ich einen umfassenderen Diskurs über die Bewältigung des Unerwarteten anstoßen. Jenseits der gewöhnlichen rationalen Plan- und Befehlsorientierung unterstreicht der Artikel die Bedeutung eines einzigartigen Gleichgewichts von Struktur und Autonomie für jede gegebene Situation, jede Organisation und jedes Team. Darüber hinaus werde ich argumentieren, dass man genau deshalb von Autonomie Gebrauch machen und autonome Entscheidungen auf die ausführenden Ebene verlagern kann, weil man sich auf unbestrittene Strukturen wie vorgegebene Kommunikationswege, Hierarchien, Strukturen von Ordnungen, Kenntnis der Mitarbeiter und esprit de corps verlassen kann.Modern organisations attempt to get a grip on he unexpected by anticipating changes as early as possible. Consequently, some organisations try to manage complexity by transferring it into defined, controllable structures and processes, aiming at the ability to deliver the desired strategic outcomes in a predictable and reliable manner. Others trust in a high degree of freedom at the shop-floor and team level allowing for quicker decisions and self-determined choice to successfully respond to unexpected events. Both solutions demand for new procedures to manage the unexpected, focusing on the need to arrange structure and flexibility. This conceptual article discusses which structures make sense for organisations in complex or even chaotic environments. I will focus at the team and organisational level and at the interaction between these two. By combining theoretical concepts of behavioural and organisational research, especially decision-making based on systems theory, situational awareness and sense-making, I aim to approach a more comprehensive discourse on ways of coping with the unexpected. Beyond common rational plan and command orientation, the article stresses the importance of a unique equilibrium of structure and autonomy for each given situation, organisation and team. Furthermore, I will argue that one can make use of autonomy and enable autonomous decisions on the shop-floor level just because one can rely on unquestioned structures: pre-determined communication paths, hierarchies, structures of orders, knowledge of one’s people and esprit de corps.Magistratsabteilung 23, Wirtschaft, Arbeit und Statistik Call 19/03 Human Factor
Factor-based modeling of correlation between PD and LGD
No full textThe credit portfolio risk constitutes the largest contribution to a bank´s economic capital requirement. Nevertheless, the Basel III neglects the PD/LGD relationship in the credit risk modelling and assumes constant LGD estimates. One of the main goals of this master´s thesis is to analyze the relationship between the PD and the LGD based on Moody´s default and recovery data (global corporate high-yield bonds). The research question addresses how the PD/LGD relationship impacts the capital requirement under Basel III framework, which rests on the mechanisms of the Vasicek model (2003). This thesis confirms the existence of the link between the PD and the LGD and demonstrates it on the basis of linear regression models. This is of high significance for a number of financial areas such as pricing, hedging with credit-sensitive instruments or the credit portfolio measurement. Furthermore, this paper investigates the accuracy and the feasibility of some newly developed theoretical concepts, namely the Giese model (2005) and the model of Hillebrand (2006), which strives to explicitly account for the PD/LGD dependency. Under the assumed conditions of the empirical study, the closest fit to the historical loss rates at the confidence level 99.9% was achieved with the Hillebrand model showing minor overestimation. The dependent LGD factor model proposed by Giese provided in the calculated scenario loss density noticeably exceeding the empirical data. The Vasicek model showed due to its simplicity only limited performance, deteriorated by risk underestimation at the long tail of the modeled loss distribution. These results strongly suggest that further development of the Basel III framework with respect to more accurate LGD estimation is not only reasonable but also needed.Masterarbeit Wien, Fachhochschule des BFI Wien 201
Analyse des Segments der temperaturgeführten Pharmalogistik des österreichischen Luftfrachtmarktes am Beispiel des Umfeldes am Flughafen Wien-Schwechat
No full textPharmaceutical logistics is a challenging field of logistics. There are stringent supply chain standards necessary that ensure ideal conditions for transported products, thus minimizing any potential for negative impact to quality. Several standards have evolved to provide conditions to follow the above-mentioned criteria. The following two standards will be discussed in detail in this thesis. The “Guidelines on Good Distribution practice of medicinal products for human use (GDP)” were implemented by the European Commission, amongst other institutions, in order to ensure high quality along the temperature controlled Supply Chain. The “Center of Excellence for Independent Validators in Pharmaceutical Logistics” is a separate approach by IATA to ensure these quality standards. This paper aims to forecast the future evolution of these approaches and their acceptance by the involved stakeholders. GDP covers the whole cold chain, whereas CEIV pharma was developed specially to serve the needs of the air cargo supply chain. In this paper it will be discussed which factors affect the positive implementation of a new standard. The main scope will be on Vienna International Airport and its involvement with pharma transports according to stakeholders within the supply chain. Therefore, heterogenic views on the previously mentioned standards can be discussed and analyzed. This will be supported by interviews with several different stakeholders that can provide a variety of points of view.Masterarbeit Wien, Fachhochschule des BFI Wien 201
Mobilitätslösungen für Menschen mit Demenz
No full textThe demographic developments in Austria and in the world with an increasingly aging society will make dementia one of the future challenges of our life. The author of this master thesis evaluated how people with dementia can participate in traffic, manage their daily personal logistics, what requirements have to be met by a traffic system and the underlying infrastructure to enable and improve this participation and how the society can be sensitized to this subject. Latest studies proof that the number of dementia patients – in accordance to current estimates there are about 130.000 people with dementia in Austria, of which more than 70 % are still living at home – will continue to grow.
The focus of this work is the transport of people with dementia in Austria. Physical-cognitive mobility barriers are assessed which have direct impact on the mobility of patients. For the first time also concerns and worries of relatives/carers are recorded regarding the everyday independent mobility of patients. There is need for such studies as any measures taken or planned which intend to improve the mobility situation of those affected would be on unsecured ground without a reliable knowledge base.
The target is to enable the longest possible autonomous mobility for dementia patients. This allows people with dementia to participate in a social life and keep interactions with other people going. This in turn reduces the degree of isolation and requires e.g. more walking. All of that can have a positive influence on the disease and the quality of life of the dementia patient. It will also relieve relatives and those who take care of dementia patients. Hence the preservation of the autonomous mobility of affected persons is a key objective to be achieved.Wien, Fachhochschule des BFI Wien, Diplomarb., 201
The impact of new ways of learning and new technologies on workplace learning of graduates : a qualitative-explorative research on talent development at SCA
No full textBerufstätige Menschen haben heutzutage einen neuen Zugang zu ihrem Lernverhalten und ihrer Weiterentwicklung und nehmen diese nunmehr weitgehend selbst in die Hand. Neue Technologien erleichtern diese Herangehensweise und ermöglichen einen stetigen, gemeinschaftlichen, einfachen und schnellen Zugang zu Information und Wissen. Viele Unternehmen implementieren neue IT Systeme, jedoch werden diese nur wenig für die Weiterentwicklung von Mitarbeiterinnen und Mitarbeitern genutzt. Lernkonzepte im Rahmen der Talententwicklung müssen heutzutage an das neue Lernverhalten und die neuen Möglichkeiten, die technologische Innovationen zulassen, angepasst werden. Die vorliegende Arbeit ist eine qualitativ-explorative Studie über die Weiterentwicklung und die Lernarten von Universitätsabsolventen in dem Unternehmen SCA. Sie beschreibt die neuesten Wege und Arten zu lernen sowie die Technologien welche die Weiterentwicklung unterstützen können. Hierunter fallen das soziale und gemeinschaftliche Lernen, das Lernen von Kompetenzen am Arbeitsplatz und aus Problemstellungen, das stets abrufbereite, lebenslange, individualisierte und Miko Lernen sowie das selbstorganisierte Lernen. Neue Technologien umfassen unter anderem E-Learning, mobiles Lernen, soziale Netzwerke, die Cloud, Gaming sowie virtuelle Welten und menschliche Computer, die in Zukunft Lernpartner sein werden. Das Ergebnis der Forschung ist ein spezifisches Lernkonzept für Universitätsabsolventen innerhalb von SCA und stellt einen Rahmen bereit, der eine konkrete Individualisierung von Entwicklungsplänen dieser Zielgruppe ermöglicht.Wien, Fachhochschule des BFI Wien, Masterarb., 201
Working paper series by the University of Applied Sciences bfi Vienna / Erfolgreiches Management von Unsicherheit in Projekten
No full textNachdem viele Jahre lang im Projektmanagement versucht wurde, das Risiko mit neuen Methoden immer weiter beherrschbar zu machen, zeigt sich, dass damit Unsicherheit und Komplexität nicht wirklich erfolgreich bearbeitet werden können. Für einen erfolgreichen Umgang mit Unsicherheit bedarf es vielmehr einer organisatorischen Weiterentwicklung mit Veränderung von bestehenden Routinen, Handlungsmustern und Zusammenarbeits- oder Führungsstilen. Modern aufgestellte projektorientierte Organisationen haben gute Voraussetzungen, durch das Lernen von Hochzuverlässigkeitsorganisationen, durch Agilität und mehr Selbstorganisation sowie durch professionelles Improvisieren besser auf die zukünftigen Herausforderungen durch Unsicherheit und wachsende Komplexität im Projektgeschäft vorbereitet zu sein. Organisationen müssen dabei ihre bestehenden Strukturen, was Entscheidungen und Anreize sowie ihre Informationsflüsse betrifft, hinterfragen und gegebenenfalls neu ausrichten. Nicht mehr oder neue Methoden oder Tools, sondern ein kultureller Wandel in der projektorientierten Organisation stellt das Potenzial für eine kontinuierliche Verbesserung in diesem Themenkomplex dar.After many years of attempting in project management to make risk ever more controllable through new methods, it actually seems impossible to successfully address uncertainty and complexity that way. Rather, successful handling of uncertainty requires further organizational development by changing existing routines, action patterns and cooperation or leadership styles. By learning from high-reliability organizations, through agility and greater self-organization, and due to professional improvising, cutting-edge project-oriented organizations are well positioned to be better prepared for the future challenges arising from uncertainty and growing complexity in project business. In this context, organizations must scrutinize – and, where applicable, realign – their existing structures regarding decisions and incentives, as well as their information flows. Not more or new methods or tools, but a cultural change of the project-oriented organization provides the potential for continuous improvement in this field.Magistratsabteilung 23, Wirtschaft, Arbeit und Statistik Call 19/03 Human Factor
Working paper series by the University of Applied Sciences bfi Vienna / Was das Projektmanagement von der Human Factors Foschung lernen kann : Möglichkeiten der Übertragung
No full textIn einer Arbeitswelt mit steigender Komplexität und der Notwendigkeit, trotz unerwarteter und oftmals noch unbekannter Herausforderungen handlungsfähig zu bleiben, greifen Organisationen zur Lösung ihrer Herausfordungen auf Projekte zurück. Doch Projekte bedürfen einer besonderen Gestaltung, um in einer VUCA-Welt, voller Volatilität, Unsicherheit, Komplexität und Ambiguität, die in sie gesetzten Erwartungen erfüllen zu können. Einerseits kommt es zu unerwarteten Situationen, als „schwarze Schwäne“ beschrieben, andererseits gelingt es nicht immer, die für einzelne Projektteammitglieder klar ersichtlichen Fallgruben oder Herausforderungen, sogenannte „Elefanten im Raum“, anzusprechen und damit im Projekt zu integrieren.
Die Human Factors Forschung kann auf erhebliche Erfolge, vor allem im Bereich der Luftfahrt hinweisen. Sie beschäftigt sich insbesondere mit der Gestaltung von Kommunikations- und Entscheidungsprozessen, aber auch mit der Etablierung einer unterstützenden Fehlerkultur. Deshalb werden diese Erkenntnisse als Grundlage für Übertragungsmöglichkeiten von Handlungsempfehlungen für projektorientierte Organisationen herangezogen. Der Artikel zeigt auf, mit welchen Hindernissen zu rechnen ist, welche Formen der Projektgestaltung möglich sind und welche Vorrausetzungen vor der Übertragung der Erkenntnisse der Human Factors Forschung zu berücksichtigen sind.In an increasingly complex work environment in which – despite unexpected and frequently still unknown challenges – there is a need to remain able to act, organizations resort to projects to resolve these challenges. However, in a VUCA world full of volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity, projects require a special design to be able to meet the expectations placed on them. On one hand, unexpected situations arise, referred to as “black swans”; on the other hand, it is not always possible to address the pitfalls or challenges that are obvious to individual project team members, so-called “elephants in the room”, and thus to integrate them in the project.
Human Factors research has a remarkable track record especially in aviation. Most notably, it deals with the design of communication and decision processes, but also with establishing a supportive error culture. Therefore, its findings are used as a basis for the transfer of recommendations for action for project-oriented organizations. The article shows which obstacles are to be expected, which types of project design are possible and which requirements are to be taken into consideration before transferring the findings of Human Factors research.Magistratsabteilung 23, Wirtschaft, Arbeit und Statistik Call 19/03 Human Factor