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From self-doubt to self-assurance: The European External Action Service as the indispensable support for a geopolitical EU. CEPS Task Force Report 29 Jan 2021.
Full text linkThe rivalry and contestation of today’s world should be reason enough for the European Union to act as a cohesive force, if only to avoid being outmanoeuvred by major powers. Yet EU countries and institutions are still struggling to set aside their differences and focus on the common interest.
The 10th anniversary of the European External Action Service is an opportune moment to take stock of its contribution to creating a more active, coherent and visible EU foreign policy. Despite its significant achievements, the Service still suffers from a lack of buy-in from member states and other parts of the EU administration.
This study reappraises the EEAS’ actual and potential mission in the coming years, considering the dynamic ecosystem within which it functions. Distilling key lessons from the first decade of the Service’s operation, the report sets out 30 recommendations to address the identified shortcomings. It aims to assist the EEAS’ purpose of forging a distinctly European brand of diplomacy, by upgrading its operation to allow it more flexibility to think, propose and act, more agility to factor in a rapidly changing international landscape, and more determination to play a leading role.
The Service could indeed make much more of its core assets, especially the integrated approach, the diversity of its in-house diplomatic expertise, a formidable network of delegations around the world, and a single intelligence analysis capacity, among others.
In doing so it would better serve the common interests of the European Union and truly fulfil its objectives in external action.
This report is the fruit of intense research cooperation between CEPS, SIEPS and the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung
The European Union’s Strategic Turn in Climate Diplomacy: ‘Multiple Bilateralism’ with Major Emitters. College of Europe EU Diplomacy Paper 4/2021.
Full text linkSince the early 2010s, the climate diplomacy of the European Union (EU) has undergone considerable changes. Traditionally relying on a ‘leadership-by-example’ approach primarily concerned with the external projection of its domestic policies, the EU profoundly adapted its climate diplomacy strategy between the 2009 conference of the parties (COP) 15 in Copenhagen and the 2015 Paris COP 21. This redefined
strategy was further consolidated in the aftermath of the Paris COP. Key features of the EU’s redesigned climate diplomacy are its focus on stronger – cooperative and/or
confrontational – bilateral relations with major emitters and a greater flexibility in its positions and actions. To better understand and explain this strategic turn, the paper
provides a comparative analysis of the EU’s climate diplomacy vis-à-vis the three major emitters China, the United States and India during the negotiations on the
Copenhagen Accord (2005-2009), on the Paris Agreement (2010-2015) and on the implementation of the Paris Agreement (2016-2020). It argues that the EU has embraced a strategy of ‘multiple bilateralism’, which aims to develop parallel bilateral relationships within the broader context of a multilateral negotiation setting. The Union’s strategic turn can be explained by the opening of a policy window resulting
from the interplay between the changing geopolitics of climate change and conducive institutional developments within the EU, which was exploited by EU policy
entrepreneurs. This turn enabled the EU to co-create a negotiation environment that facilitated the convergence of major emitters’ positions in the global climate
negotiations at Paris. Sustaining such an enabling environment thus represents a fundamental prerequisite for the successful implementation of the Paris Agreement
Guardian of the Galaxy? Assessing the European Union’s International Actorness in Cyberspace. College of Europe EU Diplomacy Paper 1/2021.
Full text linkThis paper aims at demystifying the international actorness of the European Union (EU) in cyberspace by assessing the extent to which the EU possesses sufficient capabilities
to become a global cyber-power. For this purpose, the analysis relies on a kinetic approach based on the evaluation of four intertwined criteria: it first assesses the domestic features of the EU’s cyber-actorness (resilience and coherence) to be able to further determine the characteristics of the EU’s international cyber-actorness (attractiveness and responsiveness). The presence of both domestic criteria constitutes a fertile ground to assess the EU’s actorness externally. The paper argues that the EU has evolved from an inward-looking cyber-actor to a
globally-oriented one. Internally, the EU has proved to be resilient, leading to the emergence of a ‘collective cyber-securitisation’ at the pace of cyber-attacks. Moreover, the EU has spontaneously leant towards a decentralised ‘asymmetric governance’ to overcome internal pitfalls such as national resistance linked to sovereignty issues. On the international stage, torn between a proactive and a
reactive approach, the role of the EU as a cyber-actor is still blurred. Through a dense network of partnerships and international ‘magnetism’, the EU is shaping a ‘collective
immunity’ in cyberspace by projecting its vision, norms, and values abroad. However, the EU’s international actorness remains imbued with a ‘paradoxical sleep’: the brain
acts, but the body is asleep. The main conclusion is that the EU has become a budding global cyber-player that
remains paralysed by its own inherent paradoxes and internal stalemates. Devoid of means to fulfil its global ambitions, the EU’s ‘cyber-power’ remains limited to the regional scope. The EU is not yet a ‘Guardian of the Galaxy’ in cyberspace, but it does have the potential to become a globally influential and effective cyber-power if it
manages to overcome its sui generis schizophrenic nature provoked by the tensions between its national and supranational levels
Is the EU's building renovation wave 'fit for 55'? EPC Policy Brief June 2021.
Full text linkThe European Commission's recent Renovation Wave Strategy aspires to be a turning point in the European Green Deal. If successful, it will speed up the renovation of buildings while also making them more energy-efficient and less carbon-intensive over their entire lifecycle.
Ideally, the renovation wave and the Commission's new Fit for 55 package, a set of policy proposals to reduce net emissions by 55% by 2030, would work in tandem. Buildings are responsible for about 40% of the EU's total energy consumption and 36% of carbon dioxide emissions. The Fit for 55 package deals with energy efficiency, electrification and the integration of renewables, which are crucial for making buildings more carbon-neutral.
But is the renovation wave 'fit for 55'? In this Policy Brief, Thijs Vandenbussche analyses the status of and legislative framework for energy efficiency and electrification in the EU's building stock. He argues that the reviews in the Fit for 55 package should go beyond merely adjusting existing targets. They should also scrutinise and improve the governance framework to increase energy efficiency and electrification in the buildings sector and add more incentives for consumers to renovate smartly and sustainably.
To fully realise the emission reduction potential of buildings, the EU should, when reviewing the relevant Fit for 55 legislation, take the following steps:
strengthen the Energy Efficiency Directive's monitoring and control by the European Commission to achieve the national energy efficiency targets;
add carbon reduction aspects to the Energy Efficiency Directive and/or Energy Performance of Buildings Directive; and
prioritise the Energy Taxation Directive review, rather than an extension of the Emissions Trading System to the buildings sector, to encourage the integration of renewables and electrification in buildings and disincentivise fossil fuels.
Aligning the Fit for 55 package and Renovation Wave Strategy in this way will help achieve cost-effective renovation efforts that are parallel to the EU's climate neutrality objectives while keeping in mind the needs of its most vulnerable citizens. The Commission should furthermore have a more substantial monitoring role over member states' energy efficiency plans. Incentives for consuming fossil fuels in buildings should be displaced towards renewables and electrification.
If the EU and its member states do not move in this direction, they risk failing to reach their targets – reducing emissions from the buildings sector, and their climate goals more generally
NATO and Georgia 13 years on: So close, yet so far. EPC Commentary May 2021.
Full text linkGeorgia has bent over backwards to prove to NATO that it is a steadfast partner and ready to join the Alliance. Yet Russia’s de facto third-party veto hinders NATO’s open-door policy and Georgia’s eventual membership. There should be no Russian doorman deciding who enters the NATO club.
At the 2008 Bucharest NATO summit, Georgia and Ukraine were promised seats at the Alliance’s table. 13 years on, this has still not materialised, despite Georgia ticking all the boxes on NATO’s to-do list. In fact, Tbilisi is better prepared than some of the Alliance’s newest members – and yet a Membership Action Plan (MAP) remains elusive.
While some Alliance members fear Russia’s reaction, this approach gives Moscow a de facto veto power over a sovereign country’s decision and undermines NATO’s credibility. At the forthcoming NATO summit, the Alliance must stand behind its values and ensure European security by demonstrating a genuine open-door policy. It should reaffirm Georgia’s eventual place in the club and move its membership process forward
Review of international approaches to evaluating rural and community development investment and supports. ESRI Research Series 124 April 2021.
Full text linkThe Department of Rural and Community Development (DRCD) was established in July 2017. Its mission is to ‘promote rural and community development and to support vibrant, inclusive and sustainable communities throughout Ireland’. DRCD’s Statement of Strategy 2021-2023 commits to building capacity to evaluate its work and impact to inform ongoing development of policies and programmes. As such, in September 2019 DRCD and the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) entered into a joint Research Programme to help inform the Department’s rural and community development policy. This report is the first output published under the Research Programme. Its aim is to identify international approaches to the evaluation of rural and community development activities. In turn, this will help
to improve public knowledge of measurement and evaluation of projects with a rural and community development emphasis and help inform policymaking decisions of the Department.
All DRCD programmes and expenditure are targeted at rural and community development. However, DRCD programmes and expenditure are categorised into different areas of activity in this report to provide focus for the analysis of
evaluation approaches internationally. Six main areas of activity were identified to review and examine the associated international approaches to evaluation. The
majority of DRCD expenditure is targeted towards programmes with community and/or rural related objectives. For example, four programmes, focusing on either rural or community development, account for approximately 50 per cent of all
DRCD expenditure in 2019. Therefore, most emphasis is placed on assessing international approaches in these areas. Many department programmes also involve capital spending. As such, a greater emphasis is also placed on approaches
to evaluation in this area compared to other areas examined in this report i.e. enterprise supports, employment supports, and supporting/ developing amenities,
which are outlined more briefly.
In general, there are specific challenges associated with measuring the causal impact of both community and rural development programmes. For other areas,
such as capital expenditure, the framework is more easily defined with Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) being the main method of assessment. Enterprise supports, employment and provision/development of amenities also generally have a clearer method for analysis. These overall findings and next steps are discussed below for each of the six main areas of department activities
Ex-post analysis of the impact of national landfill policy for greenhouse gas emissions in the waste sector. ESRI Report March 2021.
Full text linkThis research examines the impact of Ireland’s landfill policy on greenhouse gas emissions from the waste sector over the past three decades. The analysis focuses on direct methane emissions emanating from the municipal solid waste disposed to landfill sites in Ireland over the period 1990-2018
Hospital admission probability and length of stay among Covid-19 confirmed cases. ESRI Report February 2021.
Full text linkThe volumes of Covid-19 confirmed cases and hospital admissions have varied across the course of the pandemic in Ireland. Three broad waves can be identified; March through July, August through November, and December onwards. The majority of confirmed cases and hospital admissions have been recorded since December. This briefing note examines how the relationship between cases, hospital and critical care admissions, and hospital length of stay, may have varied over the course of the pandemic. Particular attention is paid to variation in age-specific distributions of admission probabilities and average length of stay across waves of the pandemic
Afghan refugees: Europe should develop an ambitious and collaborative structure. Egmont Commentary 25 August 2021.
Full text linkThe TV news and press coverage of the mayhem in Kabul and around its airport mask the greater scrum by tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of Afghanis heading towards the country’s borders with the neighbouring states and beyond.
Already tens of thousands have entered Pakistan and Iran recently as a result of the violence in their country. Pakistan says that officially documented afghani refugees on its territory total 1.4million; Iran says it houses 700,000. The number is very likely much higher, and large numbers have made or intend to make their way to Turkey, many en route to Europe. Both Iran and Turkey are not as hospitable to these Afghanis as they once were both because of fears related to the COVID pandemic, as well as because of the current strength of the xenophobic domestic political tendencies in both. Turkey already has 3.6 million Syrian refugees and, together with Iran, they have hundreds of thousands of Afghani refugees from previous conflicts
World politics in 2021: Infected by rivalry. Egmont Commentary 14 June 2021.
Full text linkIf China is rising, it must be seeking world domination. If Russia is declining, it must be plotting revenge. The United States, in turn, will surely not refrain from anything to maintain its dominance. And the European Union? A mere puppet of the US. Or worse, a cynical free-rider on American military might which, behind a façade of lofty rhetoric on values, pursues only its own economic advantage. That is what a world that has been infected by rivalry looks like. But is this picture correct