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Biden, NATO and the EU: Who Deals With China, and Who With Russia? Egmont Commentary 29 March 2021.
Full text linkNATO is a unique alliance – not only because of its longevity (it turns 72 this year) and its bloodless victory in the Cold War (since its opponent crumbled from the inside). It is unique also in that it is an institutionalized alliance: In addition to a standing military command structure, it also has a permanent politico-military headquarters in Brussels with some 1,000 civilian and 500 military personnel, headed by a Secretary-General
Toward a meaningful metric: replacing NATO’s 2% defence spending target. Egmont Security Policy Brief No. 142 March 2021.
Full text linkThe confluence of Joe Biden’s election to the White House, the likely ramifications of the pandemic for defence budgets, and unfolding EU and NATO strategic reflection processes offers a window of opportunity to replace NATO’s flawed 2% defence spending target. Europeans should credibly propose an output-oriented metric to reconstitute the transatlantic bargain on burden-sharing
Forward, into the past! Russia’s politics of memory in the service of ‘eternal’ authoritarianism. OSW Report 2021-11-22.
Full text linkThe Kremlin's vision of the past is becoming increasingly ideologised. This applies especially to the notion of victory over Nazi Germany in 1945, which has become a kind of a founding myth of Putinism. The historical narrative is intended to legitimise the authoritarian system of government as being optimal for Russia, and thus to perpetuate the model of state-society relationship that serves the Kremlin’s interests. Its important function is to justify Moscow's aggressive foreign policy in the twenty-first century and its ambitions to influence the international order, including the European security architecture.
This report raises a number of questions. How does the regime guard the ‘canonical’ vision of the past? Why is popular culture one of the most effective tools for shaping minds in a militarised and authoritarian manner? Why do Russians view Stalin more and more favourably, and how does it correspond with the fact that more and more young people are eager to research the difficult history of their families, communities and hometowns? How does the Internet help? In search of answers, the authors examine both the activity of the state and the changes in the mentality of Russian citizens
Timely measurement of real effective exchange rates. Bruegel Working Paper December 2021.
Full text linkWe demonstrate that short-run real exchange effective rate changes are dominated by nominal effective exchange rate changes, while inflation rates are sticky and contribute little to short-run real exchange rate changes. These observations allow a rather accurate real-time approximation of the real effective exchange rate using actual nominal exchange rate data and forecast inflation data. We measure the approximation error and find it is minor for most countries and sizeable only for a few countries experiencing high and volatile inflation. For a set of countries, the revision in our estimates using real-time data is slightly lower than the revision in World Bank estimates and much lower than International Monetary Fund estimates. By considering two widely studied economic issues, unit root testing in real exchange rates and nominal exchange rate forecasting with the real exchange rate, we find that using a version of real exchange rates based on approximated monthly price level data instead of actual price level data hardly changes the conclusions on unit roots and forecasting. By combining alternative data sources for exchange rates and consumer prices, we calculate up-to-date monthly real effective exchange rates for 177 countries and the euro area. Our dataset, which is frequently updated, includes more than twice as many observations as the second most comprehensive dataset
Moving home and switching heating fuels. ESRI Research Bulletin 202110 April 2021.
Full text linkThis research examines whether families are more likely to upgrade their heating systems when they move home and consequently whether policy initiatives could be designed around changes in dwelling occupancy or tenure
Migrant background and children’s use of healthcare services in Ireland. ESRI Research Bulletin 202107 March 2021.
Full text linkFor the first time in history, there is an emerging cohort of children of migrants living in Ireland. In order to understand and respond to their healthcare needs, and, to facilitate their families’ integration and assimilation, there is a need to understand how frequently the children of these migrants encounter the healthcare system. Using two cohorts of the Growing up in Ireland study, this research finds that children of immigrant families represent a growing, diverse demographic in Ireland. This investigation shows that some children of migrants are less likely to use healthcare services
Social Activity Measure – Wave 1. ESRI Report February 2021.
Full text linkThe Social Activity Measure (SAM) is a behavioural study that records the public response to the risk of Covid-19 infection over time. Designed by the ESRI’s Behavioural Research Unit (BRU), SAM is an anonymous, interactive, online study that surveys people about their recent activity. The study offers insight into where and how risks of transmission arise. SAM aims to inform policy regarding the opening of parts of the economy and society, while keeping Covid-19 under control. The research was designed by the BRU in consultation with the Department of the Taoiseach, and is funded by them/Government of Ireland
The EU-US Trade and Technology Council : mapping the challenges and opportunities for transatlantic cooperation on trade, climate and digital. Egmont Paper 113 13 September 2021
Full text linkThe EU-US Summit on 15 June 2021 marked the beginning of a renewed transatlantic partnership and set an ambitious joint agenda for EU-US cooperation post-COVID-19. The new Biden administration offers the EU the opportunity to re-establish transatlantic relations, which reached their lowest point since World War II under the turbulent Trump administration, and to address the bilateral disputes and tensions that have emerged, partly as a result of Trump’s ‘America First’ policies. One of the key deliverables of the Summit was the establishment of the EU-US Trade and Technology Council (TTC). The TTC aims to deepen EU-US relations on trade and investment and to avoid new technical barriers to trade by cooperating on key policies such as technology, digital policy issues and supply chains. Despite the optimism in Brussels and Washington about renewing and strengthening transalantic cooperation, there are several challenges for EU-US cooperation. In the areas of trade, digital and climate in particular several differing views or outstanding disputes (most of them inherited by the Trump administration) will need to be addressed by the new TTC (the first meeting is scheduled on 29-30 September 2021) or other joint bodies. Only then will the EU and the US be able to deliver on the new ambitious transatlantic agenda. This paper will therefore discuss the key challenges and opportunities for EU-US cooperation in the three interrelated areas of trade, digital and climate. For each of these areas, the outcome of the June 2021 EU-US Summit will be discussed and the challenges and opportunities for delivering on the renewed transatlantic agenda will be analysed. Moreover, this paper will present several policy recommendations, for the TTC or on EU-US cooperation in general, on how to advance the transatlantic partnership
What Belgium Can Do: Proposals for the National Security Strategy. Egmont Security Policy Brief No. 143 April 2021.
Full text linkBelgium has never had a National Security Strategy: a single strategic vision outlining how to safeguard its national interests from external threats and challenges and to prevent the exploitation of its internal vulnerabilities. Many in Belgium intuitively feel that none is needed: Are we not shielded by the EU and NATO? And what could the world expect from this small country anyway? But the fact is that the Kingdom of Belgium is not such a small player. The geopolitical heart, and the host, of the EU, it ranks 9th out of 27 in terms of population and GDP; worldwide, it is the 12th exporting country. Hence recurring tensions between Belgium’s own –often low –level of ambition as a security actor and the expectations of its allies and partners
TINA for Putin – Or is there an alternative? Egmont Security Policy Brief No. 136 February 2021.
Full text linkEU relations with Russia hit the news headlines this week. The visit of EU High Representative Josep Borrell, launched in a constructive spirit, ended up in a diplomatic catastrophe. The Navalny saga and the recent weekly demonstrations all over Russia have been commented on at length in the Western press. What is going on in Russia? How to interpret the recent surge of aggressiveness of the Russian authorities? Are the protests just a small hiccup in a stable Putin regime, or is something more going on? To be clear, this is neither the end nor, probably, the beginning of the end of a regime. But the events are far from insignificant. In this article I look at the ongoing events from three angles: what is the Putin regime up to? What is behind the recent wave of protests? And what are the implications for the EU’s relations with Russia