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AUKUS and the EU: A Snub for the Bloc? Egmont Commentary 22 September 2021.
Full text linkThe most surprising thing about AUKUS, the upgraded defence partnership between Australia, the UK, and the US, is the EU reaction. The Presidents of the Commission and the European Council have sharply condemned what they see as a snub for the Union, not just for France
How to reverse in a one-way street. Egmont Paper 114 7 September 2021.
Full text linkThere is not much joy in EU-Russia relations or in relations between Russia and the West in general. Judging by recent events, relations seem to be set to worsen rather than improve. Diplomatic initiatives end up in incidents, and diplomatic communication in shouting matches, while military posturing is not really a sign that constructive engagement is being considered and direct and indirect interference in the domestic politics of the other side envenoms the relationship. In the end, all sides have a basic interest in improving relations and in active economic and political cooperation, but many leaders seem to be guided by short-term political and electoral calculations rather than by long-term perspectives. Even academics and other experts seem to be caught up in the dominant narrative of their own side and appear less and less capable of formulating non-partisan analysis and proposals. But: it is innovative proposals that are needed to get out of the conflict atmosphere and avoid that the world “sleepwalks” into a major crisis.
We propose to take up this challenge: in a restricted webinar, among selected experts, we launch a reflection, “out of the box”, to explore what initiatives could possibly initiate a process of choreographed “climbing down the tree together”
The Strategic Committee on Belgian Defence: How to Read the Report. Egmont Commentary 28 June 2021.
Full text linkA band of hardliners with a shopping list: that is how we came across after the debate in the media and in the defence committee of the Belgian Federal Parliament last week. We, that is the Strategic Committee on Belgian Defence: ten academics, including the three of us, and two co-chairs who wrote a report at the request of Defence Minister Ludivine Dedonder
‘Greening’ EU’s cultural diplomacy: Uncovering the potential of the culture-climate nexus. Egmont Security Policy Brief No. 147 June 2021.
Full text linkThe EU made its first forays into the field of public and cultural diplomacy when the European External Action Service (EEAS) was created a decade ago. In 2016 the Joint Communication of the European Commission and the EEAS, titled ‘Towards an EU strategy for international cultural relations’,1 made further headway. The Communication and the accompanying preparatory studies2 concluded that enormous potential existed for the EU’s cultural diplomacy, but that a strategy to realise that potential was lacking.
This brief argues that the EU should use the momentum of post-COVID recovery for strategically aligning its cultural diplomacy with the climate and sustainability agenda
Crying wolf will not help Taiwan. Egmont Commentary 7 May 2021.
Full text linkIt is a strange spectacle. The president of Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen, speaks out to “assure everyone that our government is fully capable of managing all potential risks and protecting our country from danger”. Meanwhile, others, from American admirals to the cover of the Economist, continue to paint a picture of imminent war. Why this insistence to impose a narrative that goes against the perception of the Taiwanese themselves
Will only a Green Power remain a Great Power? Egmont Security Policy Brief No. 144 May 2021.
Full text linkWhen the coronavirus broke out in 2020 the whole world literally came to a pause. The pandemic overshadowed all other major problems and started to shape relations between states. Climate change suddenly disappeared from the international agenda. However, the effects of the global climate crisis are showing faster and more severely than ever before: wildfires in Australia, extreme weather events in Asia, tornadoes in America, a melting Arctic… Secondary effects like climate migration and conflicts have become visible as well. This crisis is more urgent than ever.
The COVID-19 crisis has shattered our economies, but lockdown measures taken by almost all governments have had a positive impact on the emission of greenhouse gases. The world took a step forward, even if unintended, towards the goals set in Paris in 2015. COVID-19 has taken away a lot from the world, but it may also have created a momentum to continue this downward trend and make it structural. Even the world’s great powers will have to integrate the green transition in their COVID-19 economy recovery plans in order to not fall off the wagon. But will only a green great power remain a great power
Unpacking the EU’s New Sahel Strategy. Egmont Commentary 22 April 2021.
Full text linkThe European Union has just released its new Sahel strategy. The strategy’s focus on governance as the core problem in the region is a success. Going forward, the EU needs to fill its governance talk with meaning, especially with regard to the contribution of civil society, fighting impunity, and a more nuanced understanding of the role that security forces play
The external representation of the EU: A simple matter of protocol? Egmont European Policy Brief No. 69 April 2021.
Full text link“Sofagate” has brutally disclosed the internal divergences within the EU in the field of its external relations.
Some tried to minimize this unfortunate incident as a mere breach of diplomatic protocol. However, several elements lead us to think that the issue at stake is a very political matter: the division of power between the President of the EU Commission and the President of the European Council concerning the external representation of the EU.
Tensions between both presidents were predictable and identified as soon as the Lisbon Treaty came into force (see premonitory analysis written by Professor Niki Aloupi in 2010) 1 . The ambivalent language of the Lisbon treaty seems to be the main source of these tensions which had, until now, been contained. On 6 of April 2021, these misgivings became public as pictures of the Ankara meeting, amplified by social media, went viral.
Considering the complex relationship between institutions and Member states as well as the harsh criticism from Eurosceptical populists, an institutional quarrel is the last thing the EU needs in these COVID-19 times. This awkward dispute undermines the ambitions for an efficient and coherent European foreign policy.
This article focuses solely on the impact of the incident on the internal structure of the EU’s external representation. It provides an analysis of the dysfunction, why it happened, and how it could be fixed.
This paper does not comment on the role of Turkish authorities or any other aspect of the “sofagate”
Assisted assertiveness: Changes in Bulgaria’s policy towards Russia. OSW Point of View 2021-08-31.
Full text linkIn March 2021, during the run up to the parliamentary elections, the Bulgarian counter-intelligence cracked a Russian espionage network that had been collecting information, including on Bulgaria’s activity in NATO. This was not the first blow Russian intelligence has received in recent years. Since tensions began in 2019, Sofia has expelled nine Russian diplomats. The intensity of the disputes between the two countries contrasts with the traditionally good relations between them. In Bulgarian historical memory, Russia appears most often as a close ally in the fight against the Ottoman Empire. The Kremlin’s great influence was also preserved after the fall of communism due to Bulgaria’s dependence on Russian fossil fuels. Unexpectedly, however, after 2014 a series of tensions arose between Sofia and Moscow, which seem to indicate that the two countries are growing apart. This publication analyses to what extent the strains result from the internal evolution of the Bulgarian public, and to what extent they are caused by the pressure on the country from its Western partners
Cinderella became the Empress: How Merkel has changed Germany. OSW Point of View Number 85 June 2021.
Full text linkAngela Merkel is the first woman to climb to the top of German politics. Step by step, to the surprise of her male rivals inside the party, she took over the leadership on the political scene of Germany, and then of the European Union. Efficiency was the leitmotif of her four terms. As a technocrat with a social ear, she turned out to be a master in dominating the political centre. Because of her, Germany’s Christian Democrats underwent an ideological evolution. She also greatly contributed to a significant weakening of the SPD and to the creation of the Eurosceptic and anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany. For an aging and wealthy German society, she was the embodiment of stability and predictability. Her rule, overshadowed by the global economic crisis, provided the citizens of Germany with what is most valuable: prosperity and security. Despite her successes in defending the German status quo, Merkel did not prepare the state and society for the inevitable changes in the international environment. The growing inequalities in the eurozone, the successes of political populism, migrations, the destructive policies of Russia and China, the backlog in the digitisation of education and industry will be described as phenomena and processes with which her governments largely failed