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How the Strategic Compass can incubate a European prototype for burden sharing. Egmont Security Policy Brief No. 146 May 2021.
Full text linkMuch ink has been spilled calling upon Europeans to do more for their defence in the context of the transatlantic relationship. “Everybody talks about the weather but nobody does anything about it”: it used to be a fitting expression for this conundrum – no more. The Strategic Compass process is an opportunity not only to decide what umbrellas to buy but when, how, and where to use them to protect against rain, hail, snow and even sunburn. There is a dissonance, however, between the political rhetoric about a complex and unpredictable security environment requiring a 360° defence and deterrence and the practice of measuring defence and deterrence. There is also a dissonance between advocates for a clear focus on NATO’s core business of territorial defence or for a more comprehensive Alliance contribution to security. This brief makes an argument firmly in favour of the latter with a focus on Europe’s contribution. It argues that the Strategic Compass process can be an incubator for a credible European prototype for burden sharing
American LNG and the EU-Russia Relationship: The End of Moscow’s Energy Weapon? College of Europe EU Diplomacy Paper 2/2021.
Full text linkThis paper examines to what extent the shale revolution in the United States (US) and the new US position in the global energy market has impacted the European Union’s (EU) gas
market and energy relationship with Russia. Making use of an analytical framework to study energy interdependence, the paper notes that the EU has long promoted a liberal view of energy trade, founded on economic cooperation and market rules. On the contrary, Russia and the US have tended to adopt a realist perspective, whereby energy is viewed as a strategic asset that can be used to achieve geopolitical gains. Moscow, in particular, has been accused of using gas as a weapon to achieve geopolitical gains. The study finds that US liquefied natural gas (LNG) coming to the market as of 2019 has generated an oversupply and strengthened the position of EU buyers vis-à-vis the Russian Gazprom. Moreover, the innovative features introduced by US LNG have to some extent de-politicized the gas business and made the EU’s market-oriented, liberal approach more effective. The paper concludes that due to today’s abundance of gas supply
options and to the increasing competitiveness of renewable alternatives to natural gas, the success of US LNG in Europe will depend both on its price competitiveness and on
whether the Biden Administration will succeed in reducing the greenhouse gas emissions associated with US LNG and make it compatible with the objectives of the European
Green Deal
Submission on EirGrid's consultation on `Shaping Our Electricity Future'. ESRI Submission May 2021.
Full text linkDevelopers of renewable energy infrastructure, as well as transmission grid infrastructure, often face public
opposition to new projects. Scenario analysis of generation and transmission system investment show that many future pathways are feasible but alternatives are not without impacts on system costs and electricity prices [1–5]. As the power system expands with greater generation and transmission capacity required over the coming decade, system costs and electricity prices could dramatically escalate if there is a sharp deterioration in the public’s acceptance of new energy infrastructure [4]. The implication for the electricity sector and society in general is that community and stakeholder engagement on new energy
infrastructure projects should continue to be a key priority. Public acceptance of energy infrastructure is
often characterised as a local issue where the new infrastructure is to be located. Both developer and public
policy initiatives exist to encourage acceptance of new infrastructure in local communities, often conceptualised in terms of willingness to accept costs. But the impact on the power system’s costs and(implicit) electricity prices are neither necessarily local to the area of potential new infrastructure nor uniform across the network. For example, impacts can occur on opposite sides of the country in terms of unserved power or higher system costs, es-pecially in the Dublin region where network congestion is most acute [4]. The estimates by Koecklin et al.[4] of implicit (or shadow) regional electricity prices conditional on varying levels of public acceptance of electricity infrastructure are a metric of both system-wide and regional network values of development of new infrastructure necessary to maintain electricity supply security and achieve renewable electricity targets
The dynamics of child poverty in Ireland: Evidence from the Growing Up in Ireland survey. ESRI Research Series 121 May 2021.
Full text linkIn Ireland, as in many other European countries, children are more likely to experience income poverty and material deprivation compared to other age groups of the population. Some families experience poverty as a transitory state,
while others remain trapped in poverty for protracted periods (for example, Bane and Ellwood, 1986; Jenkins and Rigg, 2001). This is an important policy issue, as
international research has shown that persistent poverty has negative effects short- and long-term) on children’s physical, social, emotional and psychological wellbeing and life chances (Duncan et al., 1998, 2018). The Growing up in Ireland(GUI) survey provides a unique opportunity to study children and young people’s experience of poverty in Ireland from infancy to early adulthood (age 17). We adopt a multidimensional measure of poverty, which encompasses not just income but also material deprivation and economic strain. This study sets out to profile the long-term exposure to poverty during childhood, identify the families most at risk of persistent poverty, examine the factors that trigger moves into and out of poverty, and explore the consequences of poverty for children across a wide range
of domains.
The study draws on all available waves of the GUI data for two cohorts: the ‘08 cohort, which covers the period from 9 months to 9 years, and the ‘98 cohort, which covers the period from 9 years to 17–18 years.1 Our analysis is based on 6,039 families that participated in all three waves of the ‘98 cohort and 7,507 families that completed all four waves of the ‘08 cohort. The interviews took place
between 2007 and 2017, a period of immense economic turmoil in Ireland. A key policy debate has centred on whether it is better to target supports and interventions towards younger rather than older children. The design of the GUI study allows us to consider whether the patterns we observe differ for younger and older children
Future market design options for electricity markets with high RES-E: Lessons from the Irish Single Electricity Market. ESRI Working Paper No. 702 May 2021.
Full text linkVariable renewable electricity generation presents challenges for traditional power markets. The island of Ireland has high levels of renewable generation by international standards with even higher levels envisaged and so must address these challenges. Market design is informed and constrained by EU policy and progress to date has been mixed. A qualitative review finds that market redesign is advised to address price cannibalisation, reveal consumer preferences for security and protect vulnerable
households. Options for market design are presented and recommendations for short and medium term policy action are made
A comparative assessment of minimum wage employment in Europe. ESRI Research Series 123 April 2021.
Full text linkUsing data for 2017 and 2018, this report provides a comparative analysis of minimum wage employment in Ireland, relative to a selection of other European countries with a statutory minimum wage. We estimate that just under 10 per cent of employees in Ireland were on the minimum wage during this time. This compares to an average incidence of 10.5 per cent among the countries studied, ranging from a high of almost 16 per cent in Portugal, to just 2 per cent in Belgium
Optimal climate policy with fat-tailed uncertainty: What the models can tell us. ESRI Working Paper 697 March 2021.
Full text linkWe present a modification of the most commonly used integrated assessment model (IAM) of climate change (DICE-2016), AD-DICE2016, which is designed to address three key aspects of climate economy models: treatment of uncertainty, the use of more appropriate utility functions, and including adaptation policies to climate change. These modifications ensure that two of the key difficulties identified with IAMs, the choice of the risk aversion parameter and the underestimation of damages, are also directly addressed. The use of a bounded (Burr) utility function ensures that the model is able to appropriately assess the effects of parameters whose distributions have “fat tails”. Uncertainty is accommodated via the state-contingent approach enabling us to include more state (seven) and control variables (four) than recursive derivatives of DICE. Our approach to uncertainty ensures that the optimal climate policies account for outcomes in every possible state, unlike the Monte Carlo approach. Our treatment of uncertainty is extensive: eight parameters are allowed to be random, with distributions –many “fat tailed”– identified using current knowledge. Our model suggests that uncertainty regarding damages and climate sensitivity are key drivers of climate policy. We also find that uncertainty leads to increases in both optimal mitigation and adaptation, with adaptation and mitigation reacting differently to uncertainty over different parameters. Finally, our estimates of the social cost of carbon are larger when uncertainty is allowed for and significantly affected by adaptation
Social Activity Measure - Wave 2. ESRI Report February 2021.
Full text linkThe Social Activity Measure (SAM) is a behavioural study that records the public response to the risk of Covid-19 infection over time. Designed by the ESRI’s Behavioural Research Unit (BRU), SAM is an anonymous, interactive, online study that surveys people about their recent activity. The study offers insight into where and how risks of transmission arise. SAM aims to inform policy regarding the opening of parts of the economy and society, while keeping Covid-19 under control. The research was designed by the BRU in consultation with the Department of the Taoiseach, and is funded by them/Government of Ireland
COVID-19 hospital utilisation planning model: Description and parameters. ESRI Technical Paper February 2021.
Full text linkThis technical note summarises the current version of the hospital service demand model that is used by the Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group (IEMAG) reporting to the National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET). The model is continually updated, so this note supersedes previous versions, and will be superseded by future updates
Microsimulation modelling of the National Childcare Scheme: Updated cost estimates using SWITCH. ESRI Working Paper 695 January 2021.
Full text linkWe use SWITCH, the ESRI’s tax-benefit model to simulate the scale, cost and distributive impact of the National Childcare Scheme. The paper provides updates to such estimates these authors produced in 2017, when the scheme was in its naissance. We estimate, that under the current parameters, the scheme will cost just under €180 million and will offer reduced childcare costs to 144,000 children. This cash transfer will be of most benefit to families in the bottom third of the income distribution, with the poorest families seeing income rises of 0.7 per cent. This largely progressive profile is attributable to the means-tested nature of the scheme. We bound our estimates by also allowing informal childminders avail of the scheme- this increases the cost and scale of the scheme noticeably. We also highlight, that as is the case with any subsidy, the incidence may not fully be felt by households. Future research ought to examine how the price structure of childcare facilities adapted in response to this new streamlined scheme