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    Kremlin’s quest for mare nostrum: Enhancing Black Sea security to stop Russian encroachment. EPS Commentary June 2021.

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    NATO must look for new ways to push back against Russia’s military build-up and hybrid activity in and around the Black Sea. It should establish a Black Sea Strategy and a unified deterrence and defence posture for its eastern flank. The Black Sea is a strategic crossroads between Europe and Asia of enduring geopolitical and geo-economic relevance. It connects energy routes from the Caspian Sea and Central Asia to Europe. It is also a meeting point of four great forces: democracy to the West, Russian military aggression to the north, growing Chinese financial influence to the east, and Middle Eastern instability to the south. More recently, the Black Sea has become the maritime frontline between the West and Russia. As the importance of the Black Sea grows and Russia expands and reinforces its militarisation of the region, it is high time for NATO to buttress its presence, including developing a comprehensive regional strategy. Based on peaceful measures, the strategy would improve the land, air and maritime defence of NATO’s three littoral allies – Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey – and decrease regional insecurity and the potential for unintentional conflicts

    Balkan youth speaks up about digital issues: Lessons for the Conference on the Future of Europe. EPC Discussion Paper May 2021.

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    The Balkan countries have the know-how to contribute substance and methods as part of the upcoming Conference on the Future of Europe (CoFoE). “Make Future Together: EU and the Western Balkans from the Youth Perspective” is one recent experiment in participatory democracy that speaks of the potential of the Balkan countries to add value to the CoFoE. Its methods and results offer the EU best practices and lessons learned, as the project implemented a standardised method in a region-wide exercise. In this sense, it demonstrated that the Balkans can operate as a microcosm or testing ground for EU initiatives: a model applied successfully in all the countries of the region, which share little in the way of political structures, can be scaled up to a Union of 27 member states. The project also provides insights into a subject that is crucial for the EU: the impact of the internet and social media on young people’s lives and their socio-political engagement. The input of the young people who joined these consultations suggests not only that the Balkan countries share many of the same views and priorities as the EU. The region can also handle – and, indeed, wants to speak up on – contemporary issues of concern. From this perspective, this project helps to underscore that the EU should allow the Balkan aspiring member states to join the Conference process, even if only on a consultative basis. By welcoming the Balkans aboard the CoFoE train, the EU would help build a future of solid and beneficial partnerships. And, like all great powers, it would demonstrate that it does not only preach, but can also learn from other countries

    Options for raising tax revenue in Ireland. Budget Perspectives 2022 Paper 1 May 2021.

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    Even before the pandemic, an ageing population, a potential over-reliance on corporation tax receipts and an inevitable decline in motor tax revenues combined to make the need for future tax rises likely. This paper examines a range of options that a government seeking to raise or replace tax revenues might consider, assessing what is known about how much they would raise, who would bear the burden and what economic effects they might have

    COVID-19 hospital utilisation planning model: updated description and parameters. ESRI Report April 2021.

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    This technical note summarises the current version of the hospital service demand model that is used by the Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group (IEMAG) reporting to the National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET)

    Work-life conflict in Europe. ESRI Research Bulletin 202101 February 2021.

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    This bulletin summarises key findings on factors associated with work-life conflict in Europe from a body of research, mainly using large representative surveys, over the past 20 years

    The Strategic Compass: Entering the Fray. Egmont Security Policy Brief No. 149 September 2021.

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    The Strategic Compass for the EU’s security and defence policy, to be adopted in 2022, must generate immediate action. The best way of ensuring that is to prepare new capability initiatives and, potentially, new operational engagements now, so that they can be launched simultaneously with the Strategic Compass. In that light, “the development of an initial-entry force as a pool of Member State forces that train and exercise together and are made available to the EU” (as summarised in an EEAS working paper), is one of the most promising ideas on the table. How to make it work

    Afghanistan: The End of a Strategic Distraction. Egmont Commentary 20 August 2021.

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    he military intervention in Afghanistan was a near complete success. Or it would have been, had the US pulled out as soon as it was satisfied that its initial objective had been achieved: the destruction of al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. That did not require occupying and taking over the country – a targeted punitive expedition (to use the jargon of past empires that got embroiled there) would have sufficed. But occupying and taking over Afghanistan was what the US did, eventually calling on NATO and other allies for assistance in what became a state-building project. After twenty years, that add-on objective ended in total failure

    Biden’s Visit: Five Must-Do’s in Brussels. Egmont Commentary 11 June 2021.

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    Trump’s approach to international organisations reminded one of Groucho Marx: “I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member”. It was wise, therefore, to postpone the major strategic debate in NATO while he was president. Better to delay than to risk the unravelling of the Alliance. But there are real strategic questions to be addressed. Questions that Europeans see differently than Americans, but on which they also don’t agree among themselves. If Biden’s participation in the NATO and EU-US Summits in Brussels on 14-15 June becomes just another good news show (which both NATO and the EU are expert at putting on), that would actually be bad news. Better to have some initial differences if that is the consequence of a real willingness to see things through and make tough strategic decisions

    The European Parliament flexes its muscles on the EU–UK trade deal. Egmont Commentary 5 March 2021.

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    The European Parliament has postponed its decision to ratify the Trade and Cooperation Agreement in reaction to the UK’s newest violation of the Withdrawal Agreement. It remains unlikely that the Parliament will torpedo the Agreement, but it should use this occasion to secure a more prominent role in its implementation – and those of future EU trade agreements

    The new EU screening mechanism for foreign direct investments - When the EU takes back control. Bruges Political Research Papers 84/2021.

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    The recent years showed a sudden rise in foreign direct investments (FDI) in the European Union, especially from China. This fact could be anecdotical, but globalisation has created unequal positions of power on the international stage. Targeted investments in dual use technologies or strategic sectors can then give a decisive position to a state towards others and hence weaponize interdependence. By adopting the Regulation 2019/452 establishing a framework for FDI screening, the European Union gives an answer to this phenomenon and stands to protect its strategic and critical assets, even if the framework remains solely about cooperation and without giving the European Commission a veto power. Through deterrence and political action, the EU takes back control

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