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Modelling the role of nitrogen in acidification of Swedish lakes: future scenarios of acid deposition, climate change and forestry practices
No full textThere are three major drivers that can cause future changes in lake water chemisty: air pollution, land use and climate change. In this report we used an extensive set of Swedish lakes sampled in 1995, 2000 and in 2005 to model future lake water chemistry under 5 different scenarios. The base case scenario represented deposition of air pollutants under current legislation (CLE); that is assuming that emissions of sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) will be reduced as currently agreed by the Gothenburg protocol, NEC directive and other legislation. After the agreed emission reductions were achieved, no further reduction in deposition was assumed and deposition was maintained constant up to year 2100. The base scenario assumed no change in current forestry practices and no climate change. A second other deposition scenario was based on maximum (technically) feasible emission reduction (MFR). The MFR scenario also did not assume change of either forestry practices or climate. A maximum biomass harvest was modelled (land use, LU, scenario), which entailed harvest of tree stems, slash and stumps. A scenario of climate change (CC) followed the IPCC A2 scenario downscaled to Sweden by SMHI. Finally climate change and land use were combined (CCLU scenario). The CC, LU and CCLU scenarios were driven by the 'current legislation' (CLE) deposition scenario for S and N deposition. The biogeochemical model MAGIC was used in this project, and scenarios were evaluated up to year 2100. Special attention was paid to the impact of the future scenarios on N leaching.There are three major drivers that can cause future changes in lake water chemisty: air pollution, land use and climate change. In this report we used an extensive set of Swedish lakes sampled in 1995, 2000 and in 2005 to model future lake water chemistry under 5 different scenarios. The base case scenario represented deposition of air pollutants under current legislation (CLE); that is assuming that emissions of sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) will be reduced as currently agreed by the Gothenburg protocol, NEC directive and other legislation. After the agreed emission reductions were achieved, no further reduction in deposition was assumed and deposition was maintained constant up to year 2100. The base scenario assumed no change in current forestry practices and no climate change. A second other deposition scenario was based on maximum (technically) feasible emission reduction (MFR). The MFR scenario also did not assume change of either forestry practices or climate. A maximum biomass harvest was modelled (land use, LU, scenario), which entailed harvest of tree stems, slash and stumps. A scenario of climate change (CC) followed the IPCC A2 scenario downscaled to Sweden by SMHI. Finally climate change and land use were combined (CCLU scenario). The CC, LU and CCLU scenarios were driven by the 'current legislation' (CLE) deposition scenario for S and N deposition. The biogeochemical model MAGIC was used in this project, and scenarios were evaluated up to year 2100. Special attention was paid to the impact of the future scenarios on N leaching
Sediment studies in the Stockholm archipelago 2008
No full textA clear indication of improved benthic conditions was found when sediment investigations from the 1990s were repeated in the inner Stockholm archipelago during 2008. In a majority of the investigated areas the surface sediments were oxidized and signs of bioturbation were observed. In the 1990s these areas were dominated by black and laminated surface sediments. When comparing the interpretation of sediment status versus macrozoobenthos data a clear congruence was found. The magnitude of sediment phosphorus (P) turnover in the Stockholm archipelago was closely linked to the sediment accumulation rate. Improvement of the oxygen status in the surface sediment layer have resulted in a temporary accumulation of iron (Fe) bound P. This P might reach high concentrations, and represents a withdrawal of P that otherwise would support primary production. Whether this Fe-P mainly did precipitate in the water column and did settle to the sediment, or if it formed in the oxygenated surface sediment layer due to diffusion of dissolved P and Fe from deeper sediment layers remains uncertain.A clear indication of improved benthic conditions was found when sediment investigations from the 1990s were repeated in the inner Stockholm archipelago during 2008. In a majority of the investigated areas the surface sediments were oxidized and signs of bioturbation were observed. In the 1990s these areas were dominated by black and laminated surface sediments. When comparing the interpretation of sediment status versus macrozoobenthos data a clear congruence was found. The magnitude of sediment phosphorus (P) turnover in the Stockholm archipelago was closely linked to the sediment accumulation rate. Improvement of the oxygen status in the surface sediment layer have resulted in a temporary accumulation of iron (Fe) bound P. This P might reach high concentrations, and represents a withdrawal of P that otherwise would support primary production. Whether this Fe-P mainly did precipitate in the water column and did settle to the sediment, or if it formed in the oxygenated surface sediment layer due to diffusion of dissolved P and Fe from deeper sediment layers remains uncertain
Using ForSAFE-Veg to investigate the feasibility and requirements of setting critical loads for N based on vegetation change - pilot study at Gårdsjön
No full textThe dynamic integrated ecosystem model ForSAFE-Veg was applied at the intensively monitored experimental catchment Gårdsjön, with the aim to investigate the performance of the model and the feasibility of using the composition of the ground vegetation community as an indicator of potential change due to N deposition. The quality, long term, and integrity of the measured data provided an ideal testing opportunity for evaluating the performance of the model, which proved satisfactory. The study shows that it is feasible to use the composition of the ground vegetation community as a biological indicator of ecosystem change. Yet, to be used in estimating critical loads of nitrogen (N) deposition, the biological indicator has to be simplified into a single-dimensional variable referred to as the average yearly exceedance (of change in the composition of the ground vegetation). The study shows that setting conditions to protect the dominant segment of the plant community, and thereby protecting ecosystem services, will also result in protecting the marginal plants proportion at the site. However, the choice of the segment of the plant community to be protected and the acceptable level of change remain bound to social preferencesThe dynamic integrated ecosystem model ForSAFE-Veg was applied at the intensively monitored experimental catchment Gårdsjön, with the aim to investigate the performance of the model and the feasibility of using the composition of the ground vegetation community as an indicator of potential change due to N deposition. The quality, long term, and integrity of the measured data provided an ideal testing opportunity for evaluating the performance of the model, which proved satisfactory. The study shows that it is feasible to use the composition of the ground vegetation community as a biological indicator of ecosystem change. Yet, to be used in estimating critical loads of nitrogen (N) deposition, the biological indicator has to be simplified into a single-dimensional variable referred to as the average yearly exceedance (of change in the composition of the ground vegetation). The study shows that setting conditions to protect the dominant segment of the plant community, and thereby protecting ecosystem services, will also result in protecting the marginal plants proportion at the site. However, the choice of the segment of the plant community to be protected and the acceptable level of change remain bound to social preference
Småskalig pelleteringsanläggning för lantbruket
No full textSyftet med dessa projekt var att utveckla samt bygga en anläggning för småskalig gårdsbaserad produktion av pellets. Därtill var syftet att i samarbete med lantbrukare testa och anpassa anläggningen för småskalig produktion av pellets från olika stråbränslen. I syftet ingick också att undersöka och sammanställa tänkbara system och lösningar för sönderdelning av stråbränslebalar, såsom halm och rörflen, innan lagring i pelletsmodulen.Syftet med dessa projekt var att utveckla samt bygga en anläggning för småskalig gårdsbaserad produktion av pellets. Därtill var syftet att i samarbete med lantbrukare testa och anpassa anläggningen för småskalig produktion av pellets från olika stråbränslen. I syftet ingick också att undersöka och sammanställa tänkbara system och lösningar för sönderdelning av stråbränslebalar, såsom halm och rörflen, innan lagring i pelletsmodulen
För Västmanlands läns Luftvårdsförbund. Övervakning av luftföroreningar i Västmanlands län - mätningar och modellering. Hydrologiskt år: resultat t.o.m. september 2008. Kalenderår: resultat t.o.m. 2007
No full textPå uppdrag av Västmanlands läns Luftvårdsförbund mäter IVL nedfall av luftföroreningar och markvattenkvalitet på fem platser i länet för närvarande. Krondroppsnätet har sedan starten 1985 löpt i perioder och 2007 initierades ett nytt fyraårigt samarbetsprojekt. Grundtanken med Program 2007 är att utifrån depositions-, markvatten- samt lufthaltsmätningar ge kunskap om belastningen av luftföroreningar och deras effekter på vegetation, mark och vatten. Mätningarna kompletteras med fördjupade modellberäkningar på regional nivå som baseras på modellberäkningar på nationell nivå med hög geografisk upplösning. Denna rapport fokuserar på redovisning av mätresultat. Den modellansats som ingår rör kommunvis deposition. De halter av luftföroreningar som uppmätts i länet var, liksom i resten av mellersta Sverige var under det hydrologiska året 2007/08 relativt låga. Nederbörden var drygt 900 mm under mätperioden vid länets mätstation på öppet fält i Kvisterhult, vilket är en av de högre noteringarna under den 15-årsperiod som mätningar utförts. Trots detta var nedfallet av svavel förhållandevis lågt. Ca. 1 kg svavel deponerades till vardera av de två krondroppsytorna i länet, vilket är lägre än vad som tidigare uppmätts. Svaveldepositionen har minskat kraftigt på skogsytan i Kvisterhult under den 15-åriga mätserien. Kvävenedfallet till öppet fält i Kvisterhult uppgick till 7,9 kg/ha, vilket är nivå med eller lägre än de tre föregående åren, men högre än tidigare år i mätserien. Framför allt nedfallet av ammoniumkväve har varit förhöjt under senare år, ett mönster som syns även på ytor i angränsande län. Orsaken till det ökade nedfallet är oklar och kommer att utredas. Markvattnet i länet uppvisar varierande surhetsgrad, med surast markvatten i den nästan 90-åriga granskogen i Kvisterhult (pH 4,6 i oktober 2008) och minst surt markvatten i den 50-åriga granskogen i Hyttskogen (pH mellan 6,0 och 6,3 i april-oktober 2008). Halten sulfatsvavel har minskat signifikant i Kvisterhult, i takt med det minskade svavelnedfallet, och detta återspeglas även genom signifikant minskade halter av baskatjonerna kalcium, magnesium och kalium. I övrigt är tecknen på återhämtning svaga i den 15-åriga tidsserien i Kvisterhult. För pH finns en svag men signifikant ökning medan ANC (den syraneutraliserande förmågan) och oorganiskt aluminium inte förändrats. Nitratkvävehalten har generellt varit mycket låg vilket tyder på att skogen tar upp allt tillgängligt kväve.På uppdrag av Västmanlands läns Luftvårdsförbund mäter IVL nedfall av luftföroreningar och markvattenkvalitet på fem platser i länet för närvarande. Krondroppsnätet har sedan starten 1985 löpt i perioder och 2007 initierades ett nytt fyraårigt samarbetsprojekt. Grundtanken med Program 2007 är att utifrån depositions-, markvatten- samt lufthaltsmätningar ge kunskap om belastningen av luftföroreningar och deras effekter på vegetation, mark och vatten. Mätningarna kompletteras med fördjupade modellberäkningar på regional nivå som baseras på modellberäkningar på nationell nivå med hög geografisk upplösning. Denna rapport fokuserar på redovisning av mätresultat. Den modellansats som ingår rör kommunvis deposition. De halter av luftföroreningar som uppmätts i länet var, liksom i resten av mellersta Sverige var under det hydrologiska året 2007/08 relativt låga. Nederbörden var drygt 900 mm under mätperioden vid länets mätstation på öppet fält i Kvisterhult, vilket är en av de högre noteringarna under den 15-årsperiod som mätningar utförts. Trots detta var nedfallet av svavel förhållandevis lågt. Ca. 1 kg svavel deponerades till vardera av de två krondroppsytorna i länet, vilket är lägre än vad som tidigare uppmätts. Svaveldepositionen har minskat kraftigt på skogsytan i Kvisterhult under den 15-åriga mätserien. Kvävenedfallet till öppet fält i Kvisterhult uppgick till 7,9 kg/ha, vilket är nivå med eller lägre än de tre föregående åren, men högre än tidigare år i mätserien. Framför allt nedfallet av ammoniumkväve har varit förhöjt under senare år, ett mönster som syns även på ytor i angränsande län. Orsaken till det ökade nedfallet är oklar och kommer att utredas. Markvattnet i länet uppvisar varierande surhetsgrad, med surast markvatten i den nästan 90-åriga granskogen i Kvisterhult (pH 4,6 i oktober 2008) och minst surt markvatten i den 50-åriga granskogen i Hyttskogen (pH mellan 6,0 och 6,3 i april-oktober 2008). Halten sulfatsvavel har minskat signifikant i Kvisterhult, i takt med det minskade svavelnedfallet, och detta återspeglas även genom signifikant minskade halter av baskatjonerna kalcium, magnesium och kalium. I övrigt är tecknen på återhämtning svaga i den 15-åriga tidsserien i Kvisterhult. För pH finns en svag men signifikant ökning medan ANC (den syraneutraliserande förmågan) och oorganiskt aluminium inte förändrats. Nitratkvävehalten har generellt varit mycket låg vilket tyder på att skogen tar upp allt tillgängligt kväve
Upprätthållandet av tre askförsök i södra Sverige samt en redovisning över bäckvattenkemiska effekter 1991-2008. Slutrapport till Energimyndigheten Projektnummer P13138-3 'Nationell resursbank med långsiktiga försök inom ämnesområdet helträdsuttag och askkompensation för uppföljning av miljöeffekter'
No full textIVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet har, tillsammans med SLU Sveriges Lantbruksuniversitet och SkogForsk, bedrivit ett samverkansprojekt med det övergripande syftet att utreda de långsiktiga effekterna av biobränsleuttag och näringskompensation. Projektet startade 2000 inom ramen för Energimyndighetens Energiforskningsprogram och har genomförts i 3 etapper. Målet är att identifiera försök av hög vetenskaplig kvalité inom ämnesområdet helträdsuttag och askåterföring och bibehålla dem som kan användas som underlag för att studera de långsiktiga effekterna av ett skogsbruk inriktat mot bränsleproduktion. I den första etappen identifierades 72 fältförsök varav 3 (Fröslida, Nyårsåsen och Tågabo) drivs i regi av IVL. Vidare har det varit viktigt att vidmakthålla försöken genom olika skötselinsatser, att dokumentera störningar eller andra förändringar samt att upprätthålla mätverksamheten på en extensiv nivå. Det har också varit viktigt att exponera försöken och göra dem lättillgängliga för forskare, myndigheter, finansiärer och andra avnämare i en gemensam försöksdatabas. Utvecklandet av databasen skedde under etapp 1 och 2 och uppdaterad information om de olika försöken finns tillgänglig på www.silvaboreal.com. Viktiga moment under etapp 3 har varit att vidmakthålla befintliga försök (3 st), genomföra provtagning och analyser på en extensiv nivå, dokumentera resultaten i den gemensamma försöksdatabasen samt slutrapportera resultaten.IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet har, tillsammans med SLU Sveriges Lantbruksuniversitet och SkogForsk, bedrivit ett samverkansprojekt med det övergripande syftet att utreda de långsiktiga effekterna av biobränsleuttag och näringskompensation. Projektet startade 2000 inom ramen för Energimyndighetens Energiforskningsprogram och har genomförts i 3 etapper. Målet är att identifiera försök av hög vetenskaplig kvalité inom ämnesområdet helträdsuttag och askåterföring och bibehålla dem som kan användas som underlag för att studera de långsiktiga effekterna av ett skogsbruk inriktat mot bränsleproduktion. I den första etappen identifierades 72 fältförsök varav 3 (Fröslida, Nyårsåsen och Tågabo) drivs i regi av IVL. Vidare har det varit viktigt att vidmakthålla försöken genom olika skötselinsatser, att dokumentera störningar eller andra förändringar samt att upprätthålla mätverksamheten på en extensiv nivå. Det har också varit viktigt att exponera försöken och göra dem lättillgängliga för forskare, myndigheter, finansiärer och andra avnämare i en gemensam försöksdatabas. Utvecklandet av databasen skedde under etapp 1 och 2 och uppdaterad information om de olika försöken finns tillgänglig på www.silvaboreal.com. Viktiga moment under etapp 3 har varit att vidmakthålla befintliga försök (3 st), genomföra provtagning och analyser på en extensiv nivå, dokumentera resultaten i den gemensamma försöksdatabasen samt slutrapportera resultaten
Testing the Biotic Ligand Model for Swedish surface water conditions - a pilot study to investigate the applicability of BLM in Sweden
No full textBiotic Ligand Models (BLMs) have been developed for a number of metals (e.g. Cu, Zn, Ni), in order to account for bioavailability in metal risk assessment. The BLMs predict the bioavailable fraction of a metal in the water, based on water chemistry, and calculate site-specific PNEC-values, to which measured dissolved concentrations can be compared. Concerns have been raised that these models may not apply in the Swedish environment, due to the large difference in Swedish water chemistry compared to those European waters, for which the models have mainly been validated. IVL has, in close collaboration with industrial partners undertaken a pilot study, with the aim of testing the applicability of Biotic Ligand Models for assessing metal toxicity in Swedish waters. The study concerned the metals copper (Cu), zinc (Zn) and nickel (Ni), cadmium (Cd) and chromium (Cr). The overall conclusions of the project are that a) BLM-models can and should be applied as a natural element when assessing metal risks in Swedish waters, preferably as a sub-step in a tiered approach; b) The chemical conditions of Swedish water bodies are generally in agreement with the BLM requirements concerning the two key parameters pH and DOC, when it concerns the metals Cu, Zn, and Ni; c) Swedish national monitoring programmes should focus on routine measurements of dissolved metal concentrations, and also on measurements of DOC. If the currently used method is regarded as equivalent to filtration through a 0.45 µm filter, this should be clearly stated in the national monitoring databases; d) Models are available for Cu, Zn, and will soon be available for Ni. The BLMs are regularly improved and updated; e) Concerning chromium, BLMs are currently not available. It is therefore considered that all soluble chromium (III) is bioavailable and thus contributes to toxicity ; f) Cadmium is assessed using a hardness correction and the proposed Cd-EQSs are to be compared with dissolved monitoring data. In order to assess the model results, a validation exercise should be performed for soft waters regarding Zn, in particular for soft waters with a high pH-valueBiotic Ligand Models (BLMs) have been developed for a number of metals (e.g. Cu, Zn, Ni), in order to account for bioavailability in metal risk assessment. The BLMs predict the bioavailable fraction of a metal in the water, based on water chemistry, and calculate site-specific PNEC-values, to which measured dissolved concentrations can be compared. Concerns have been raised that these models may not apply in the Swedish environment, due to the large difference in Swedish water chemistry compared to those European waters, for which the models have mainly been validated. IVL has, in close collaboration with industrial partners undertaken a pilot study, with the aim of testing the applicability of Biotic Ligand Models for assessing metal toxicity in Swedish waters. The study concerned the metals copper (Cu), zinc (Zn) and nickel (Ni), cadmium (Cd) and chromium (Cr). The overall conclusions of the project are that a) BLM-models can and should be applied as a natural element when assessing metal risks in Swedish waters, preferably as a sub-step in a tiered approach; b) The chemical conditions of Swedish water bodies are generally in agreement with the BLM requirements concerning the two key parameters pH and DOC, when it concerns the metals Cu, Zn, and Ni; c) Swedish national monitoring programmes should focus on routine measurements of dissolved metal concentrations, and also on measurements of DOC. If the currently used method is regarded as equivalent to filtration through a 0.45 µm filter, this should be clearly stated in the national monitoring databases; d) Models are available for Cu, Zn, and will soon be available for Ni. The BLMs are regularly improved and updated; e) Concerning chromium, BLMs are currently not available. It is therefore considered that all soluble chromium (III) is bioavailable and thus contributes to toxicity ; f) Cadmium is assessed using a hardness correction and the proposed Cd-EQSs are to be compared with dissolved monitoring data. In order to assess the model results, a validation exercise should be performed for soft waters regarding Zn, in particular for soft waters with a high pH-valu
Production optimisation in the petrochemical industry by hierarchical multivariate modelling. Phase 2: On-line implementation
No full textIVL, together with Emerson Process Management, has developed a decision support system (DSS) based on multivariate statistical process models. The system was implemented at Nynas AB's refinery in order to provide real-time TBP curves and to enable the operator to optimise the process with regards to product quality and energy consumption. The project resulted in the following proven benefits at the industrial reference site, Nynas Refinery in Gothenburg: o Increased yield with up to 14 % (relative terms) for the most valuable product o Decreased energy consumption of 8 % Validation of model predictions compared to the laboratory analysis showed that the prediction error lay within 1°C throughout the whole test period.IVL, together with Emerson Process Management, has developed a decision support system (DSS) based on multivariate statistical process models. The system was implemented at Nynas AB's refinery in order to provide real-time TBP curves and to enable the operator to optimise the process with regards to product quality and energy consumption. The project resulted in the following proven benefits at the industrial reference site, Nynas Refinery in Gothenburg: o Increased yield with up to 14 % (relative terms) for the most valuable product o Decreased energy consumption of 8 % Validation of model predictions compared to the laboratory analysis showed that the prediction error lay within 1°C throughout the whole test period
Sectoral agreements and competitive distortions - a Swedish perspective
No full textThe objectives of this study are to: 1. Give an overview of the current discussion concerning competition distortion in relation to climate policy, 2. Describe results from some studies estimating the actual competition situation for selected activities, 3. Describe what sector agreement models are suggested/ discussed by EU, 4. Describe what sectors are most interesting to target with a sector agreement from a Swedish point of view, 5. Analyse what parameters are important for reducing competition distortion for Swedish Industry. Two studies, for the United Kingdom (Hourcade et al 2008) and Germany (Graichen et al 2008), have recently assessed the potential cost impact for different industrial sectors of CO2-prices due to the EU ETS. Maximum value at stake was used as metrics. The sectors with high potential impact, with a maximum value at stake larger than 10%, are in the United Kingdom Lime and cement, Basic iron and steel, Starches, Refined petroleum, Fertilizers and Nitrogen compounds and Aluminium. In Germany, the sectors with a maximum value at stake larger than 10% are: Cement and lime, Fertilizers and nitrogen compounds, Basic iron and steel, Aluminium, Paper and board, Other basic inorganic compounds and Coke, refined petroleum and nuclear fuels. Ex-ante studies of the impacts of competitiveness and carbon leakage due to the EU ETS fail to find actual impacts. However, that does not mean that there will be no impact in the future, which hold changes both in the EU ETS (method for allowance allocation, allowance prices etc) and possibly also other important circumstances (global demand for certain products and global product prices). In this study, based on official Swedish statistics, the maximum value a stake has been calculated for 52 Swedish sectors. Seven sectors have a maximum value a stake of more than 4%: Coke and refined petroleum (21%), Pulp and paper (11%), Basic metals (10%), Non-metallic mineral (9%), Metal ore mines (6%), Air transport (5%) and Electricity, gas and heat (4%). If Air transport and Electricity, gas and heat are omitted, the five remaining sectors account for 22% of Sweden's carbon emissions. In the Swedish Non-metallic mineral sector (including Cement and lime) the maximum value at stake is considerably lower than for Cement and lime in the UK and Germany. This is most likely due differences in system boundaries. In the Swedish statistics, the Cement and lime industry is a minor part (in terms of value added) of the Non-metallic mineral sector, a sector that also includes Stone, sand and soil industry. The calculated maximum value at stake for Non-metallic mineral is therefore a poor proxy for the Cement and lime sector since other sub sectors may 'dilute' the maximum value at stake. Differences in system boundaries may also explain the significant difference in maximum value at stake between the Swedish steel industry and UK and German steel industries. Other possible explanations may be a higher value added per unit, differences in how value added is calculated, different years applied for the analysis and lower CO2-intensity for Swedish products. In late 2008, the EU proposed three types of sector approaches to be discussed under the Ad-hoc Working Group on future commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP): i) Sector CDM - a CDM crediting mechanism with a previously established baseline ii) Sectoral no-lose mechanism - Sectoral crediting against a previously established no-lose target iii) Sectoral emission trading based on a sector emissions cap Based on these three sectoral models, we have analysed what parameters are important for reducing competition distortion for Swedish industry. We have assumed that these sector agreements are implemented in a developing country (DC). We conclude that if sector agreements are to reduce distortions on competition, it is important that the sector agreements create a real carbon price in the DC, i.e. that emissions of carbon dioxide are associated with a cost for the emitter. All three sector agreement-models suggested by the EU can potentially create a carbon price. The driver for emission reductions are in all three cases the international demand for offsets. As a potentially large buyer of off-sets, the EU demand for off-sets is likely to increase the carbon price in the DC sector. The choice of EU policy with respect to imports of off-set will therefore have great importance. Other buyers, such as other countries, emission trading systems or the voluntary credit market will of course also be important. Moreover, imports of off-sets may reduce the price on EU ETS allowances, thus further narrowing the carbon price gap between the two markets. If an important objective of a sectoral agreement is to reduce competition distortion it should be implemented in sectors where the corresponding Swedish industry has significant carbon related costs and where there is significant trade intensity between Sweden and regions outside the EU. Our preliminary analysis indicates that Swedish sectors with potentially high maximum value at stake (direct carbon and indirect electricity cost) are Refineries; Pulp and Paper; Iron and Steel;Cement and Lime; and Metal ore mining. The sectors Aluminium and Fertilizers may be important, but have not been assessed explicitly in this study. In addition, electricity production can be important to include in a sectoral agreement since the electricity price may be a significant cost for certain sectors exposed to international competition. Pass-through of costs - consumer incentives. If a sectoral agreement is to reduce competition distortion it is important that the sector participating in the sectoral agreement can pass through the additional carbon costs on the commodity so the carbon intensive products become more expensive for the consumer. A full pass through of the carbon cost could be compromised in countries with centrally regulated prices on carbon intensive commodities or other measures that shield the true price of carbon from the consumer. Target setting - producer incentives. The rules for setting the targets in the DC sector are crucial from a producer incentive point of view. There are two main options here: 1) absolute targets and 2) intensity targets. Absolute targets create high incentives for carbon reductions as long as the targets are not re-negotiated. The disadvantage is that they might be difficult to negotiate due to difficulties in finding an appropriate emission level, risk for hot air and the inflexibility to future adjustments. Intensity targets are based on output times an intensity factor (called benchmarking). But benchmarking leads to reduced incentives: i) as a production subsidy it encourages overproduction and ii) dis-incentivises the substitution to carbon efficient products. A third, theoretical, option would be absolute targets that are updated according to historic emissions. This model would, however, seriously undermine the incentives for emission reductions. In this study, we have argued that from a competition point of view, it's important to create a carbon price in the developing country. A different issue relates to how different sector agreement models influence the compliance costs of participating firms. We describe a situation where a DC industry sector is linked to the EU ETS, and where the EU industry pays for allowances (no free allocation). For a Sector emission trading system where the DC industry has to pay for allowances, the compliance costs could be compatible in the two regions. For Sector CDM and Sector no-lose mechanism, if the government implements a domestic carbon tax, the compliance costs may also be compatible in the two regions. However, if allowances are allocated freely to the DC industry and no tax is implemented, the DC industry would have no costs associated with the carbon emissions below the compliance level. There could here be a significant difference in compliance costs between the industries in the two regions. We have, however, not analysed if significant asymmetries in compliance costs can lead to competitive distortions between regions.The objectives of this study are to: 1. Give an overview of the current discussion concerning competition distortion in relation to climate policy, 2. Describe results from some studies estimating the actual competition situation for selected activities, 3. Describe what sector agreement models are suggested/ discussed by EU, 4. Describe what sectors are most interesting to target with a sector agreement from a Swedish point of view, 5. Analyse what parameters are important for reducing competition distortion for Swedish Industry. Two studies, for the United Kingdom (Hourcade et al 2008) and Germany (Graichen et al 2008), have recently assessed the potential cost impact for different industrial sectors of CO2-prices due to the EU ETS. Maximum value at stake was used as metrics. The sectors with high potential impact, with a maximum value at stake larger than 10%, are in the United Kingdom Lime and cement, Basic iron and steel, Starches, Refined petroleum, Fertilizers and Nitrogen compounds and Aluminium. In Germany, the sectors with a maximum value at stake larger than 10% are: Cement and lime, Fertilizers and nitrogen compounds, Basic iron and steel, Aluminium, Paper and board, Other basic inorganic compounds and Coke, refined petroleum and nuclear fuels. Ex-ante studies of the impacts of competitiveness and carbon leakage due to the EU ETS fail to find actual impacts. However, that does not mean that there will be no impact in the future, which hold changes both in the EU ETS (method for allowance allocation, allowance prices etc) and possibly also other important circumstances (global demand for certain products and global product prices). In this study, based on official Swedish statistics, the maximum value a stake has been calculated for 52 Swedish sectors. Seven sectors have a maximum value a stake of more than 4%: Coke and refined petroleum (21%), Pulp and paper (11%), Basic metals (10%), Non-metallic mineral (9%), Metal ore mines (6%), Air transport (5%) and Electricity, gas and heat (4%). If Air transport and Electricity, gas and heat are omitted, the five remaining sectors account for 22% of Sweden's carbon emissions. In the Swedish Non-metallic mineral sector (including Cement and lime) the maximum value at stake is considerably lower than for Cement and lime in the UK and Germany. This is most likely due differences in system boundaries. In the Swedish statistics, the Cement and lime industry is a minor part (in terms of value added) of the Non-metallic mineral sector, a sector that also includes Stone, sand and soil industry. The calculated maximum value at stake for Non-metallic mineral is therefore a poor proxy for the Cement and lime sector since other sub sectors may 'dilute' the maximum value at stake. Differences in system boundaries may also explain the significant difference in maximum value at stake between the Swedish steel industry and UK and German steel industries. Other possible explanations may be a higher value added per unit, differences in how value added is calculated, different years applied for the analysis and lower CO2-intensity for Swedish products. In late 2008, the EU proposed three types of sector approaches to be discussed under the Ad-hoc Working Group on future commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP): i) Sector CDM - a CDM crediting mechanism with a previously established baseline ii) Sectoral no-lose mechanism - Sectoral crediting against a previously established no-lose target iii) Sectoral emission trading based on a sector emissions cap Based on these three sectoral models, we have analysed what parameters are important for reducing competition distortion for Swedish industry. We have assumed that these sector agreements are implemented in a developing country (DC). We conclude that if sector agreements are to reduce distortions on competition, it is important that the sector agreements create a real carbon price in the DC, i.e. that emissions of carbon dioxide are associated with a cost for the emitter. All three sector agreement-models suggested by the EU can potentially create a carbon price. The driver for emission reductions are in all three cases the international demand for offsets. As a potentially large buyer of off-sets, the EU demand for off-sets is likely to increase the carbon price in the DC sector. The choice of EU policy with respect to imports of off-set will therefore have great importance. Other buyers, such as other countries, emission trading systems or the voluntary credit market will of course also be important. Moreover, imports of off-sets may reduce the price on EU ETS allowances, thus further narrowing the carbon price gap between the two markets. If an important objective of a sectoral agreement is to reduce competition distortion it should be implemented in sectors where the corresponding Swedish industry has significant carbon related costs and where there is significant trade intensity between Sweden and regions outside the EU. Our preliminary analysis indicates that Swedish sectors with potentially high maximum value at stake (direct carbon and indirect electricity cost) are Refineries; Pulp and Paper; Iron and Steel;Cement and Lime; and Metal ore mining. The sectors Aluminium and Fertilizers may be important, but have not been assessed explicitly in this study. In addition, electricity production can be important to include in a sectoral agreement since the electricity price may be a significant cost for certain sectors exposed to international competition. Pass-through of costs - consumer incentives. If a sectoral agreement is to reduce competition distortion it is important that the sector participating in the sectoral agreement can pass through the additional carbon costs on the commodity so the carbon intensive products become more expensive for the consumer. A full pass through of the carbon cost could be compromised in countries with centrally regulated prices on carbon intensive commodities or other measures that shield the true price of carbon from the consumer. Target setting - producer incentives. The rules for setting the targets in the DC sector are crucial from a producer incentive point of view. There are two main options here: 1) absolute targets and 2) intensity targets. Absolute targets create high incentives for carbon reductions as long as the targets are not re-negotiated. The disadvantage is that they might be difficult to negotiate due to difficulties in finding an appropriate emission level, risk for hot air and the inflexibility to future adjustments. Intensity targets are based on output times an intensity factor (called benchmarking). But benchmarking leads to reduced incentives: i) as a production subsidy it encourages overproduction and ii) dis-incentivises the substitution to carbon efficient products. A third, theoretical, option would be absolute targets that are updated according to historic emissions. This model would, however, seriously undermine the incentives for emission reductions. In this study, we have argued that from a competition point of view, it's important to create a carbon price in the developing country. A different issue relates to how different sector agreement models influence the compliance costs of participating firms. We describe a situation where a DC industry sector is linked to the EU ETS, and where the EU industry pays for allowances (no free allocation). For a Sector emission trading system where the DC industry has to pay for allowances, the compliance costs could be compatible in the two regions. For Sector CDM and Sector no-lose mechanism, if the government implements a domestic carbon tax, the compliance costs may also be compatible in the two regions. However, if allowances are allocated freely to the DC industry and no tax is implemented, the DC industry would have no costs associated with the carbon emissions below the compliance level. There could here be a significant difference in compliance costs between the industries in the two regions. We have, however, not analysed if significant asymmetries in compliance costs can lead to competitive distortions between regions
För Blekinge Luftvårdsförbund. Övervakning av luftföroreningar i Blekinge län - mätningar och modellering. Hydrologiskt år: resultat t.o.m. september 2008. Kalenderår: resultat t.o.m. 2007
No full textPå uppdrag av Blekinge Luftvårdsförbund mäter IVL nedfall av luftföroreningar och markvattenkvalitet på fem platser i länet. Krondroppsnätet har sedan starten 1985 löpt i perioder och 2007 initierades ett nytt fyraårigt samarbetsprojekt. Grundtanken med Program 2007 är att utifrån depositions-, markvattens- samt lufthaltsmätningar ge kunskap om belastningen av luftföroreningar och deras effekter på vegetation, mark och vatten. Mätningarna kompletteras med fördjupade modellberäkningar som ursprungligen utvecklats på en nationell nivå men som skalas upp till regionala nivåer. Den regionala fördjupningen inom Program 2007 omfattar miljökvalitetsmålen Bara naturlig försurning, Ingen övergödning och Frisk luft. Årets rapport är en utpräglad resultatredovisning. Den modellansats som ingår rör endast kommunvis deposition. Det har skett en kraftig minskning av nedfallet av försurande ämnen till skogsekosystemen i Blekinge län under de senaste 20 åren, från en ursprungligen mycket hög belastning. Det har även skett en nedgång av kvävenedfallet, men i mindre omfattning och det återstår sannolikt ett årligt kvävenedfall till skogen som ligger över 10 kg kväve per hektar. Det minskande sura nedfallet har medfört en avsevärd förbättring av markvattnets kvalitet i växande skog. Nedfallet av framför allt kväve har emellertid lagrats upp i skogsmarken under årens lopp och vid störningar, såsom avverkning eller stormfällen, kan det uppstå en avsevärd försämring av markvattenkvaliteten vad gäller kvävehalter under en övergångsperiod.På uppdrag av Blekinge Luftvårdsförbund mäter IVL nedfall av luftföroreningar och markvattenkvalitet på fem platser i länet. Krondroppsnätet har sedan starten 1985 löpt i perioder och 2007 initierades ett nytt fyraårigt samarbetsprojekt. Grundtanken med Program 2007 är att utifrån depositions-, markvattens- samt lufthaltsmätningar ge kunskap om belastningen av luftföroreningar och deras effekter på vegetation, mark och vatten. Mätningarna kompletteras med fördjupade modellberäkningar som ursprungligen utvecklats på en nationell nivå men som skalas upp till regionala nivåer. Den regionala fördjupningen inom Program 2007 omfattar miljökvalitetsmålen Bara naturlig försurning, Ingen övergödning och Frisk luft. Årets rapport är en utpräglad resultatredovisning. Den modellansats som ingår rör endast kommunvis deposition. Det har skett en kraftig minskning av nedfallet av försurande ämnen till skogsekosystemen i Blekinge län under de senaste 20 åren, från en ursprungligen mycket hög belastning. Det har även skett en nedgång av kvävenedfallet, men i mindre omfattning och det återstår sannolikt ett årligt kvävenedfall till skogen som ligger över 10 kg kväve per hektar. Det minskande sura nedfallet har medfört en avsevärd förbättring av markvattnets kvalitet i växande skog. Nedfallet av framför allt kväve har emellertid lagrats upp i skogsmarken under årens lopp och vid störningar, såsom avverkning eller stormfällen, kan det uppstå en avsevärd försämring av markvattenkvaliteten vad gäller kvävehalter under en övergångsperiod