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Schutz gefährdeter Brutvögel des Offenlandes - Großes, nährstoffarmes und heterogenes Grünland ist von entscheidender Bedeutung
No full textAlthough the value of biodiversity is mostly beyond debate, it is declining on a global scale and at rates unprecedented in human history. Consequently, loss of biodiversity is one of the most fundamental challenges facing humankind. Habitat loss and degradation through land-use change were identified as the most important drivers of species decline in terrestrial ecosystems. Particularly species associated with low-intensity land use and nutrient-poor conditions suffered huge population declines. Additionally, climate change puts further pressure on the remaining habitats and thus becomes another crucial driver of biodiversity loss. Addressing these challenges requires detailed knowledge of species’ ecological demands and how these might change in response to future environmental changes. Therefore, this thesis seeks to gain insights into habitat requirements, breeding, and migration ecology of threatened species. Three grassland bird species of conservation concern were studied as model organisms in natural grassland refuges, the East Frisian Islands (Northwest Germany). In detail the Wheatear (Oenanthe Oenanthe) was treated as a songbird feeding on small insects and larvae, the European Curlew (Numenius arquata) as a representative of grassland breeding waders feeding on vertebrates and earthworms and the Short-eared owl (Asio flammeus) as a raptor species feeding on voles (Mircotus spec.).
The studies highlight the importance of open dune grasslands as habitats for the threatened species. The Wheatear preferred highly disturbed habitats characterised by huge amounts of open soil and very short and sparse vegetation. Because such habitats were almost exclusively provided by European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) the study revealed that rabbits act as ecosystem engineers providing holes for nesting and early successional stages with sparse and short vegetation for foraging. Curlews preferred heterogenous vegetation structures providing areas of open soil and short vegetation for feeding and chick rearing but also areas of intermediate vegetation height for breeding and hiding of chicks. In contrast, Short-eared owls preferred high and dense vegetation for nest building surrounded by intermediate vegetation for foraging. Moreover, litter turned out to be a crucial habitat requisite that provide concealment and shelter from extreme weather and facilitates fledglings’ survival and food availability. All investigated species avoided late successional stages like shrubs and woodlots. In this way, despite differences in nest-site preferences, all species profited from nutrient-poor conditions and relatively high dynamic due to the influence of tides and wind. Both result in sparse, open, and heterogenous vegetation structures and extensive areas of early successional stages which are crucial for feeding. Nevertheless, intermediate stages of succession such as rough grassland, which provide high cover of litter for hiding and improving food availability, also proved important, especially for raptors feeding on voles. In contrast to the East Frisian Islands, the above-mentioned conditions are rare in the intensively used agricultural landscape on the mainland, which makes the discrepancy of breeding densities of threatened species on the islands and the mainland comprehensible. Therefore, the consequent protection of the refuge habitats on the islands but also along the migration routes and wintering areas is crucial for the preservation of the threatened species and should be of high priority for their conservation. As almost 30 % of the curlews recorded with GPS used France as a resting or wintering area, this applies in particular to the wintering areas of the curlew in France, where the introduction of hunting is currently being discussed. At the same time, the restoration of degraded habitats based on the example of the habitats preferred in the refuges is urgently needed to enhance habitat availability and suitability on the mainland.
Based on the findings of this thesis, large-scale measures providing heterogenous grasslands are considered the key to the conservation of threatened ground-breeding species. Corresponding habitats might be created through low-intensity land use applying agri-environmental schemes that should encompass rotating fallows (high and dense vegetation rich in litter and voles) and areas of higher land-use intensity featuring disturbance like mowing or grazing (open-soil, short and sparse vegetation). The presented studies indicate that climate change might affect the investigated species through an increasing frequency of extreme weather events with negative impacts on fledglings’ survival and through changes in migration ecology such as wintering areas. Prospective conservation measures should therefore include strategies that anticipate future environmental changes like climate change. At the same time, this highlights the need for consequent political action to counter climate change and (by that) biodiversity loss
Cyberwar Methods and Practice
Get PDFCyberwar (Cyber war, Cyber Warfare) is the military confrontation with the means of information technology. This paper presents the current state and deals with the theoretical and practical problems. In practice, cyberwar is an integral part of military action, but cannot be completely separated from espionage, since the intrusion into and reconnaissance of target systems is essential for further action. After an overview of attack methods, attackers (Advanced Persistent Threats), espionage tools, cyber weapons and cyber defense, a particular focus is on the attribution of cyber-attacks and the Smart Industry (Industry 4.0). Afterwards, the cyberwar strategies of the US, China, Russia, and further leading actors will be discussed. Further chapters present the Artificial Intelligence with Large Language Models and Generative AI, Smart Industry, smart devices, and biological applications
Die Geopolitik der BRICS plus
Get PDFDieses Arbeitspapier analysiert die Geopolitik der erweiterten BRICS plus-Gruppe. Die BRICS plus ist eine zwischenstaatliche Organisation mit den Mitgliedsstaaten Brasilien, Russland, Indien, China, Südafrika, Ägypten, Äthiopien, Iran und den Vereinigten Arabischen Emiraten. BRICS ist eine Abkürzung für Brasilien, Russland, Indien, China und Südafrika, die im Jahr 2020 den Anteil der westlichen G7 am globalen Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) gemessen an der Kaufkraftparität übertrafen. Ägypten, Äthiopien, Iran und die Vereinigten Arabischen Emirate traten am 1. Januar 2024 bei und erweiterten die Gruppe zu den BRICS-Plus-Staaten. Saudi-Arabien ist den BRICS noch nicht beigetreten, hat aber bisher an allen BRICS-Treffen im Jahr 2024 teilgenommen. Waren die BRICS ursprünglich eine ökonomische Alternative zu den etablierten westlich dominierten Finanzorganisationen (Weltbank und Internationaler Währungsfonds IWF), so gelten die BRICS mittlerweile als politische Stimme des „Globalen Südens“ (“Global South”). Die BRICS bzw. BRICS plus haben keine Charta oder ein gemeinsames Sekretariat, was einerseits den Mitgliedstaaten Flexibilität bietet und ihre politische Handlungsfreiheit ohne die Zwänge und Anforderungen einer Blockbildung erhöht, aber andererseits die organisatorische Macht begrenzt. Das Fehlen einer gemeinsamen Ideologie oder zumindest einer klar definierten Agenda blockiert die Formierung der BRICS plus als hegemonialer Konkurrenz oder eines Systems internationaler Normen, das den westlichen Institutionen und Normen ähnlich wäre. Doch eine Wertedefinition oder eine Charta könnte der erste Schritt zum Aufbau von Machtstrukturen durch die führenden Akteure sein, was die BRICS plus-Mitglieder vermeiden wollen. Als ständige BRICS-Institutionen wurden 2015 die in Shanghai ansässige New Development Bank (NDB) mit einem Kapital von 100 Milliarden US-Dollar (USD) und ein contingent reserve arrangement (CRA) mit 100 Milliarden US-Dollar als Notkredit bei Liquiditätskrisen aktiviert. Zusätzlich zu den jährlichen Treffen der Staatsoberhäupter und den BRICS-Outreach-Gipfeltreffen mit Staaten außerhalb der Organisation wurden eine Vielzahl multilateraler Vereinbarungen, Räte, Foren, Aktionspläne und Grundsatzdokumente eingerichtet, darunter Veranstaltungen für parlamentarischen Austausch, Arbeitsgruppen, Seminare/Konferenzen usw. Es gibt Überschneidungen mit der Shanghaier Organisation für Zusammenarbeit SOZ (engl. Shanghai Cooperation Organization SCO). Während es sich bei der SOZ explizit um ein eurasisches Projekt handelt, konzentriert sich BRICS plus auf den globalen Süden. Es gibt keine offizielle Verbindung zwischen SOZ und BRICS plus, aber das Dreieck China-Russland-Indien ist in beiden Organisationen präsent und kann Streitigkeiten vermeiden. Es wurde argumentiert, dass die BRICS-Erweiterung im Jahr 2024 neue Konflikte in die Gruppe bringt und die Heterogenität verstärkt. Aber die Einbeziehung des Iran, der Vereinigten Arabischen Emirate und möglicherweise Saudi-Arabiens macht die BRICS plus zu einem wichtigen Akteur auf dem Öl- und Energiemarkt, während die (fehlgeschlagene) Einbeziehung Argentiniens die BRICS plus auch zu einem bedeutenden Akteur im Ernährungssektor gemacht hätte. Die Einbeziehung der größten ostafrikanischen Mächte Ägypten und Äthiopien sichert (trotz der kritischen Beziehungen zwischen beiden Mächten) eine herausragende Rolle der BRICS plus in Ostafrika und insgesamt nehmen die Beziehungen zum und der Einfluss auf dem afrikanischen Kontinent stetig zu, während der westliche Einfluss allmählich zurückgeht
Functional Coupling of Janus Kinases with Cytokine Receptors at the Plasma Membrane
Get PDFCytokines and their corresponding receptors play crucial roles in regulating processes such as hematopoiesis, immunity, and inflammation. While being promising targets for therapeutic intervention, the high plasticity and pleiotropy of cellular responses to cytokines are currently obstructing medical applications. Class I and class II cytokine receptor (CR) signaling is propagated through Janus family tyrosine kinases (JAK), which bind non-covalently to specific motifs on the receptors' intracellular domains proximal to the plasma membrane (PM). These "Box" motifs, although exhibiting low conservation among different receptors, are essential for ensuring proper JAK activity. However, the precise understanding of mechanistic principles determining functional coupling of JAKs with CRs remain elusive.
This thesis aimed to provide a molecular view on how JAKs bind class I and class II CRs in the context of the PM and to explore how the specificity and promiscuity of JAK recruitment contribute to the pleiotropy of CR signaling. We further sought to uncover the principles of membrane interaction and its impact on JAK association with CRs, downstream signal activation, and the significance of receptor juxtamembrane domain (JMD) in fine-tuning orientation and activity.
Using live cell micropatterning, we obtained quantitative insights into the specificity and promiscuity of JAK family members in binding CRs. Our findings revealed that competitive JAK association with CRs enhances regulation of signaling activity. Moreover, we observed that the localization and stability of receptors on the cell surface depended strongly on the specific JAK involved, despite similar binding affinities. These results elucidated how different functional coupling in receptor-JAK complexes lead to distinct signaling patterns, contributing to their wide range of functions. Furthermore, we identified a membrane binding site of the JAK FERM-SH2 domains comprising conserved hydrophobic and positively charged residues, which controls receptor binding and formation of active signaling complexes at the PM. Interestingly, we find cooperation of the JAK membrane binding site with an amphipathic membrane-proximal helix of CRs. Correlation of binding and activity suggests that this cooperative membrane binding is required for productive orientations of JAKs to form active signaling complexes. Collectively, our results challenge the traditional understanding of JAK-receptor interactions and highlight the significance of PM interactions for effective signaling
Künstliche Intelligenz und Atomwaffen
Get PDFKünstliche Intelligenz (KI) hat ein großes Potenzial für militärische Anwendungen und wird von den Atommächten als unverzichtbar und wesentlich angesehen. KI und Big Data könnten zur Kontrolle der Nichtverbreitung von Atomwaffen eingesetzt werden, könnten Zeit und Kosten bei der Erforschung, Designoptimierung, Herstellung, Prüfung und Zertifizierung, Wartung und Überwachung von Atomwaffen sparen und Ressourcen effizienter verwalten. Militärische KI könnte die Frühwarn-, Überwachungs- und Aufklärungsfähigkeiten (Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance ISR) sowie die Zuverlässigkeit der Kommunikation verbessern und die Entscheidungsfindung beschleunigen.
Die Integration von KI in die nuklearen Kommando-, Kontroll- und Kommunikationssysteme (NC3) könnte auch Informationen zwischen nuklearen und nichtnuklearen Kommando- und Kontrollsystemen synchronisieren. Bei autonomen Kernwaffensystemen kann KI die Erkennung und Manövrierfähigkeit von Hindernissen, die automatisierte Zielidentifizierung sowie die Fähigkeiten für Langstrecken- und Patrouillenflüge (loitering) unterstützen. Die Debatte über den Einsatz von KI für Atomwaffen umfasst drei Bereiche: die Autonomie, die Stabilität militärischer KI-Systeme und die strategische Stabilität. Eine mögliche Autonomie von Atomwaffen ist Teil der breiteren Debatte über letale autonome Waffensysteme (LAWS). Automatisierte und teilautonome nukleare Einsatzentscheidungen wurden bereits während des Kalten Krieges in Betracht gezogen (SAGE; Perimeter). Ein spezifisches militärisches KI-Problem ist die Missionsstabilität, da den KI-Systemen das Kontextwissen fehlt und sie möglicherweise zu schnell entscheiden. Die Intransparenz der Systeme führt zu Erklärbarkeits- oder Interpretierbarkeitsproblemen, weitere Probleme können sich aus data poisoning, manipulierten Bildern, Automatisierungs-Bias und künstlicher Eskalation ergeben. Kriegs-Simulationen mit aktuellen generativer KI, den Large Language-Modellen (LLMs) von OpenAI, Anthropic und Meta, zeigten, dass die Systeme zur Eskalation bis hin zu nuklearen Angriffen neigen. Als Softwaresystem ist KI anfällig für Cyberangriffe, generative KI auch für prompt injections. Ein Hauptanliegen aller Beteiligten ist die strategische Stabilität, also alles zu vermeiden, was Anlass zu einem nuklearen Erstschlag gibt. Ein solcher Grund könnte die Unsicherheit über die Fähigkeiten des Gegners sein, denn wenn nicht bekannt ist, was die Gegenseite in einer bestimmten Situation tun kann, besteht die einzige Chance in einem nuklearen Konflikt darin, zuerst zuzuschlagen. KI kann die strategische Stabilität auch dadurch untergraben, dass die Entscheidungszeit verkürzt wird, was zu einer Eskalation oder einem unbeabsichtigten Einsatz von Atomwaffen führen kann, Missverständnisse und Fehleinschätzungen während einer Krise verstärkt und einen vorzeitigen Einsatz unzureichend getesteter KI fördert. Darüber hinaus erleichtern KI-Systeme den Einsatz von „Dead-Hand“-Systemen und autonomen Atomwaffen. Der Aufstieg von Hyperschallwaffen und die zunehmende Geschwindigkeit der Kriegsführung untergraben ebenfalls die strategische Stabilität. Derzeit gilt die KI noch als noch nicht ausgereift für den Einsatz in strategischen Hochrisikosituationen; es besteht ein erhebliches Risiko technischer Ausfälle und durch verzerrte, unvollständige oder ungenaue Daten. Die Atommächte sind sich einig, dass die KI in der Führung und Kontrolle auf strategischer Ebene nur unterstützend eingesetzt werden sollte. Die USA, China und Russland haben Dialoge über KI-Risiken aufgenommen. Der vorliegende Beitrag stellt kurz den aktuellen Stand der Debatte und die Hintergründe dar
Graphene and Carbon Nanotube Field Effect Transistors: Advancements in Label-Free Biosensing of Membrane Proteins
Get PDFIn dieser Arbeit präsentiere ich erfolgreiches Biosensing von Membranproteinen. Die Rauschspektroskopiemessungen
ergaben eine stabile Reaktion mit hoher Empfindlichkeit. Während bestimmter
Immobilisierungsschritte erreichte die Gesamtänderung des Gesamtrauschpegels mehrere Größenordnungen.
Darüber hinaus zeigte die Einführung des Rab GTPase Ypt7 Proteins eine Generation-Rekombinations-
Rauschkomponente (GR), die Aufschluss über die Zeitskala des Aktivierungsprozesses von Ypt7 gibt.
Die Biosensorexperimente wurden mit Flüssig-Gate-Graphen-Feldeffekttransistoren (GFETs) durchgeführt,
die durch maskenlose Photolithographie hergestellt wurden. Die Charakterisierung der GFETs
ergab einen durchschnittlichen Kontaktwiderstand von 76,9±48 Ω und einen durchschnittlichen
Schichtwiderstand von 19,3 ± 2,6 Ω, zusammen mit einem Spezifischen Kontaktwiderstand von etwa
384,4 Ω-μm. Diese Werte übertreffen die Werte der meisten Geräte mit ähnlicher Konformation.
Die Ergebnisse der reversiblen Immobilisierung des monomeren grün fluoreszierenden Proteins
(mEGFP) bilden eine wiederverwendbare Biosensorplattform zur Untersuchung von Prozessen auf
Lipidmonolayern.
Sowohl die Herstellungsmethode der GFETs als auch deren Wiederverwendbarkeit tragen zur
Entwicklung nachhaltiger und kosteneffizienter Biosensoren bei.
Im Gegensatz zu biologischen Methoden ermöglicht die elektrische Biosensorik die Untersuchung
der Integrität von Lipid-Monolagen. Während mit optischen Methoden keine Veränderungen bei
der Einführung von Metallionen festgestellt werden können, liefern elektrische Biosensoren eine
eindeutige Reaktion, die, wenn sie auf Einzelmolekülebene herunter skaliert werden, eine quantitative
Analyse ermöglicht. Eine solche Analyse, einschließlich Protein-Protein-Wechselwirkungen
(PPIs) auf Einzelmolekülebene, könnte mit Kohlenstoffnanoröhren-Feldeffekttransistoren (CNTFETs)
weiter erforscht werden.
Traditionell erfordert die Herstellung von CNTFETs teure Ionenstrahl-Photolithographie. In
dieser Arbeit habe ich die Methoden entwickelt um erfolgreich CNTFETs mit einer Laserdirektschreibmaschine
(DLW) auf kosteneffizienteWeise herzustellen, was den Weg für zukünftige Studien
ebnet
Pattern transitions in diary data of MDD patients: a mixed-methods multiple case study of psychotherapy dynamics
Get PDFAim: Mixed-methods approaches promise a deep understanding of psychotherapeutic processes. This study uses qualitative and quantitative data from daily diary entries and daily self-assessments during inpatient treatment. The aim of the study is to get an insight into the similarities and differences between both types of data and how they represent self-organized pattern transitions in psychotherapy. While a complete correlation of results is not expected, we anticipate observing amplifying and subsidiary patterns from both perspectives.
Materials and methods: Daily, five MDD patients wrote diaries and completed self-assessments using the Therapy Process Questionnaire, a questionnaire for monitoring the change dynamics of psychotherapy. The data were collected using the Synergetic Navigation System, an online tool for real-time monitoring. Diary entries of the patients described their experiences in everyday life. The qualitative text analysis was conducted using Mixed Grounded Theory, which provided categories representing the patients’ ongoing experiences of transformation and stagnation. The time series data was analyzed using the dynamic complexity algorithm and the pattern transition detection algorithm. Results from qualitative and quantitative analyses were combined and compared. Following the process of data triangulation, the leading perspective came from the theory of self-organization. In addition to presenting the overall results for all five patients, we delve into two specific case examples in greater detail.
Results: Specific and highly diversified diary entries of 5 patients were classified into the categories of perceived pattern stability, noticing improvement, broadening the perspective, critical instability, and experiencing moments of Kairos. Patients reported problems not only related to their disorder (e.g., lack of energy and hopelessness) but also to phases and steps of change, which could be related to the theory of self-organization (e.g., problem attractors, critical fluctuations, pattern transitions, and Kairos). Qualitative and quantitative analysis provide important supplementary results without being redundant or identical.
Conclusion: Data triangulation allows for a comprehensive and multi-perspective understanding of therapeutic change dynamics. The different topics expressed in the diary entries especially help to follow micro-psychological processes, which are far from being a simple reaction to interventions. The way patients experience themselves being in stability or instability and stagnation or transformation is surprisingly close to the general features of self-organizing processes in complex systems
Is my body better than yours? Validation of the German version of the Upward and Downward Physical Appearance Comparison Scales in individuals with and without eating disorders
Get PDFIntroduction: This study examines the psychometric properties of a German version of the Upward and Downward Physical Appearance Comparison Scales (UPACS and DACS).
Methods: A total of 2,114 participants, consisting of 1,360 women without eating disorders (Mage = 25.73, SDage = 6.84), 304 men without eating disorders (Mage = 24.48, SDage = 6.34), and 450 women with eating disorders (Mage = 27.11, SDage = 7.21), completed the UPACS and DACS as well as further questionnaires on appearance comparisons, eating disorder pathology, and self-esteem.
Results: Structural equation modeling confirmed the proposed one-factor structure of the original English-language version of the DACS but not of the UPACS. Both scales showed good internal consistency and test–retest reliability. The UPACS and DACS showed the expected correlations with related constructs, indicating acceptable construct validity, with some limitations for women with eating disorders.
Discussion: Overall, this study indicates that the German versions of the UPACS and DACS are psychometrically suitable for assessing upward and downward physical appearance comparisons in women and men without eating disorders and women with eating disorders in research and clinical practice
Combined transcriptome and proteome profiling reveal cell-type-specific functions of Drosophila garland and pericardial nephrocytes
Get PDFDrosophila nephrocytes are specialised cells that share critical functional, morphological, and molecular features with mammalian podocytes. Accordingly, nephrocytes represent a preferred invertebrate model for human glomerular disease. Here, we established a method for cell-specific isolation of the two types of Drosophila nephrocytes, garland and pericardial cells, from animals of different developmental stages and ages. Mass spectrometry-based proteomics and RNA-Seq-based transcriptomics were applied to characterise the proteome and transcriptome of the respective cells in an integrated and complementary manner. We observed characteristic changes in the proteome and transcriptome due to cellular ageing. Furthermore, functional enrichment analyses suggested that larval and adult nephrocytes, as well as garland and pericardial nephrocytes, fulfil distinct physiological functions. In addition, the pericardial nephrocytes were characterised by transcriptomic and proteomic profiles suggesting an atypical energy metabolism with very low oxidative phosphorylation rates. Moreover, the nephrocytes displayed typical signatures of extensive immune signalling and showed an active antimicrobial response to an infection. Factor-specific comparisons identified novel candidate proteins either expressed and secreted by the nephrocytes or sequestered by them. The data generated in this study represent a valuable basis for a more specific application of the Drosophila model in analysing renal cell function in health and disease
Geography-referenced modeling of pharmaceuticals and fecal bacteria for risk assessment in river catchments
No full textWater is the essential resource of all life. Humans, wildlife and entire ecosystems depend on a good quality of water resources. Therefore, the preservation and restoration of a good water quality in the world’s environment is indispensable. However, humans are largely responsible for increasing contamination of this resource. It is generally accepted that this contamination needs to be reduced. Thus, the protection of surface waters and groundwater is regulated in various guidelines and directives like the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD). The required assessment of the status of the waterbodies includes knowledge about the various types of contamination. In this thesis, two different pollutants negatively affecting surface water quality are studied, namely residues of pharmaceutics and fecal contamination by bacteria.
Worldwide, the well-being of millions of people depends on pharmaceuticals to prevent and treat a variety of diseases. With greater accessibility and increased application frequency, more and more pharmaceutical residues are entering the water cycle, where they may cause adverse effects on aquatic wildlife. Fecal contamination of surface waters poses a specific threat to humans, for example, through contamination of rivers used for wild swimming. This type of contamination is usually assessed by the concentration of fecal indicator bacteria. In this thesis, fecal indicator bacteria were investigated with a special focus on antibiotic-resistant bacteria, as they are particularly risky for humans. Infections caused by antibiotic-resistant bacteria might be difficult to treat or not curable at all.
In this work, concentrations of pharmaceuticals and (antibiotic-resistant) fecal bacteria in surface waters of whole catchments were simulated to provide a basis for risk assessment. Concentrations were simulated using the geography-referenced regional exposure assessment tool for European rivers (GREAT-ER). Four research articles are included to (i) present the current publicly available version of the GREAT-ER model, (ii) conduct an extensive risk assessment of human-use pharmaceuticals in a cross-border catchment, (iii) apply the GREAT-ER model for the first time to simulate the fate of (antibiotic-resistant) Escherichia coli (E. coli) bacteria (as an indicator bacterium for fecal contamination) in surface waters in deterministic and (iv) stochastic simulations.
In the cross-border study area, investigation of pharmaceutical residues shows that safe ecological concentration limits are likely to be exceeded at least temporarily for diclofenac, carbamazepine, and 17α-ethinylestradiol, which are not regulated by the WFD. Likewise, the study highlights the importance to investigate (sub-)catchments across national boundaries. The application of the GREAT-ER model to predict (antibiotic-resistant) E. coli concentrations in river catchments demonstrates opportunities and limitations of the model with respect to its originally not intended application to bacteria. Model results can serve as a basis to assess river catchments in terms of fecal contamination. These results suggest that swimming in waters influenced by wastewater treatment plant effluents is not advisable year-round and that the uptake of antibiotic-resistant bacteria cannot be ruled out when swimming in these waters. Under average conditions, measured concentrations are well represented by the model, while it reaches its limits under extreme conditions. Extending the model for a stochastic simulation routine using the Monte Carlo approach, allows for adequate predictions of the range of measured E. coli concentrations. With this approach, also key drivers of the spread of predicted concentrations could be identified.
Overall, the presented research highlights the strengths of predictive models in general and of GREAT-ER in particular for exposure assessment of contaminants in river basins and the advantage of the complementary approach of modeling in combination with monitoring