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Portfolio selection and risk sharing via risk budgeting
Get PDFRisk budgeting is an effective risk management tool that a decision-maker uses to create a risk portfolio with a pre-determined risk profile. This paper provides a rich discussion about the theory and practice on how to construct risk budgeting portfolios in a variety of settings. We revisit the usual portfolio selection setting with and without clustered risk budgeting targets, and we then provide an approach on how to extend the usual setting to situations in which a non-hedgeable risk is present or fixed sub-portfolios are aimed by the decision-maker. Another study of this paper is how to include risk budgeting targets in risk sharing, which has not been discussed in the literature. Implementation issues are also discussed, and some bespoke algorithms are provided to identify such risk budgeting portfolios. Numerical experiments are performed for real-life financial data, and we explain the risk mitigation effect of our proposed portfolio. Specifically, financial risk budgeting portfolios with social responsibility targets are constructed
Ethics in manufacturing: a decision-making perspective
Get PDFThe integration of ethical considerations in manufacturing systems has become increasingly an issue of concern for industries over the last decade. This paper proposes a comprehensive systematic framework for ethical decision-making in manufacturing systems, addressing the gap between theory and practical implementation. Following an extensive literature review and analysis by the CIRP Collaborative Working Group on Ethics in Manufacturing, a survey was conducted of CIRP members in February 2024. The study revealed that while practitioners demonstrate awareness of ethical considerations, there remains a significant disconnect between recognition and systematic implementation. The research identifies fragmented approaches across different areas such as environmental responsibilities, labour practices, and AI and automation; this highlights the need for a holistic and systematic framework for ethics in manufacturing. In response, this study proposes a dynamic ethical decision-making framework that develops along three main phases: problem definition, problem resolution, and evaluation. The framework is designed to provide consistent ethical support across all manufacturing areas while addressing cultural disparities that often lead to differences in ethical considerations across regions. While preliminary validation against existing literature shows promising results, ongoing case studies are being conducted to further verify the framework's applicability across various manufacturing sectors. This research contributes to the field by offering a systematic approach that is both comprehensive and adaptable to evolving manufacturing challenges
Exploring modifiable lifestyle risk-talk in mild cognitive impairment diagnosis consultations: a conversation analytic approach
Get PDFObjectives
Approximately 20 % of the UK population aged ≥ 65 have Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI), with 1 in 10 progressing to dementia. Fourteen modifiable risk factors, encompassing: less education, hearing loss, high LDL cholesterol, depression, traumatic brain injury, physical inactivity, diabetes, smoking, hypertension, obesity, excessive alcohol consumption, social isolation, air pollution, and visual loss account for around 45 % of worldwide dementias. There is growing consensus that interventions targeting risk behaviours may prevent or delay dementia and reduce the likelihood that MCI will progress to dementia. Healthcare professionals, especially in memory assessment services, play a crucial role in communicating dementia risk. This study explores the placement, form, and function of discussions about modifiable lifestyle dementia risks during consultations in which individuals are being diagnosed with MCI.
Methods
The data were 43 MCI diagnostic feedback consultations, video-recorded in nine UK-based memory assessment services from 2014 to 2015. All data are British English. Conversation analytic methods were used to identify recurrent interactional practices related to lifestyle risk-talk.
Results
Clinicians lead risk-talk discussions throughout the consultations. Three activities of risk-talk were identified: (1) risk identification - clinicians elicit the nature of patient’s risk behaviors; (2) risk categorisation – informing patients about the risks of dementia; and (3) risk management – clinicians recommend strategies for dementia risk reduction. Clinicians tailor these discussions to each patient, focusing on their specific risk factors, or provide generic advice in the absence of identifiable risks.
Conclusions
This study broadens the understanding of risk-talk activities and how they are delivered interactionally. It demonstrates how healthcare professionals skillfully integrate risk-talk throughout consultations while managing the inherent uncertainty surrounding health risks. It highlights the moral, interactional, and social delicacy of these exchanges.
Practical implications
Tailored messaging about lifestyle risks and modifications can be delicately incorporated throughout healthcare consultations, providing strategies for dementia risk reduction
Polygenic Risk Score Impact on Visual Function in Older Individuals with Healthy Macula: The Northern Ireland Sensory Ageing Study
Get PDFBackground/objectives: Although polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have been developed for age-related macular degeneration (AMD), it is not known whether these scores are associated with impairment of visual functions in older individuals with healthy macula. We evaluated age-related changes in visual function in people aged 55 years or above with healthy macula and determined the associations of age-related visual function changes with AMD PRS in people with healthy macula.
Subjects/Methods: Participants aged 55 years or above with healthy macula and a comparative group of people with early or intermediate AMD from the Northern Ireland Sensory Ageing study were included. 45 SNPs were included for PRS calculation.
Results: A total of 470 participants with healthy macula were included (Beckman grade 0 or 1). The comparator group consisted of participants with early AMD (n = 87) or intermediate AMD (n = 48). All visual functions except metrics of central visual field assessment showed a significant decline with age in adjusted linear regression models. Rod intercept time (RIT) was the only visual function significantly associated with PRS with Beta = 0.12 (95% confidence interval: 0.01–0.23), P = 0.03. A PRS integrated model achieved the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.803 (0.732 to 0.874) to distinguish between normal or increased RIT.
Conclusions and relevance: We observed a significant decline in multiple visual functions with increasing age. However, PRS was significantly associated with RIT only, highlighting the genetic association of age-related decline in rod function
Molecularly imprinted optical fibre sensor for detection of nitroglycerin
Get PDFIn this study, a nitroglycerin (NG) sensor has been developed, utilizing indium tin oxide (ITO) coated optical fibres, molecularly imprinted polymer (MIP) and xerogel technologies. Nitroglycerin detection remains of great importance in the defense and security industry and therefore, steps towards sensitive and specific detection technology are important to be explored. Experimental methods reported focus on the removal of NG from the MIP, evidenced by a change in wavelength shift, (38.62 nm), indicating that NG was fully removed, before exploring the rebinding and subsequent quantification of NG uptake in follow-up analysis. A non-imprinted polymer (NIP) has been developed in parallel and measurements made, to compare the performance and behaviour of the MIP. The chemical sensor scheme developed here shows promise for detecting NG using the technologies discussed, and while most relevant to the defense and security applications, they also have side applicability to different targets for other industries
Energy Commodities and Calendar Spread Options
Get PDFWe present a unified framework for pricing calendar spread options on energy commodities under affine models featuring stochastic volatility, jumps, and Samuelson effects. Expressions for the joint characteristic function of log-futures prices are derived, enabling efficient calibration and valuation. An empirical analysis, across WTI crude oil, Henry Hub natural gas, and ULSD heating oil shows that stochastic volatility models consistently outperform others. Jumps enhance short-term fit, while volatility dynamics matter more at longer maturities. The Black model remains competitive for short- and mid-term contracts
Interventions to improve parental mental health and psychological well-being in parents of adolescents with a diagnosis of ASD and/or ADHD: A systematic review
Get PDFParents of children with neurodevelopmental conditions, such as autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), report higher stress levels and mental health difficulties compared to parents of typically developing children. The adolescent period can present particular challenges and there is a need to better understand how best to support parents’ mental health during this time. This systematic review examines the effectiveness of interventions focused on improving the mental health of parents of adolescents with neurodevelopmental conditions and synthesises details about the intervention characteristics. We included 31 peer-reviewed papers describing 19 unique mental health interventions for parents of children aged between 10 and 19 years and diagnosed with neurodevelopmental conditions. Studies were retrieved from nine databases and their quality was appraised using Joanna Briggs Institute quality assessment. Results are reported using narrative synthesis. Mindfulness-based interventions (MBI), examined in 23 studies, reported significant reductions in stress levels and improved trait mindfulness, whilst reductions of depressive symptoms and anxiety were mixed. Psychoeducation-based interventions (PEBI), reported in 5 studies, showed significant increases in self-efficacy and reduction of depressive symptoms, but not in stress. Therapeutic-based interventions (e.g., CBT, ACT) were the focus of 4 studies and findings among them were inconclusive. Most interventions were implemented in the format of psychoeducational lectures (17 studies), and mindfulness-based techniques (22 studies) in group settings (25 studies), with eight to nine 90-minute sessions. Whereas research in interventions supporting parental mental health is in its infancy, there is some support that mindfulness-based intervention and psychoeducation can be helpful
Social rejection sensitivity and its role in anorexia nervosa: a systematic review of experimental literature
Get PDFObjective
Social rejection sensitivity (SRS) is characterised by anxious expectations of rejection, and the increased tendency to readily perceive and react intensely to rejection-based cues. It has been suggested SRS may play a role in anorexia nervosa (AN). Our review investigates whether SRS is exhibited in AN, and the cognitive mechanisms that underly this disposition.
Method
We included experimental studies if they used social threat or rejection-based stimuli, reported on measures related to either cognitive, emotional, and/or behavioural responses, and compared patients with a diagnosis of AN and/or those who have recovered from the illness with healthy controls.
Results
This article identified 47 eligible studies, with risk of bias assessment indicating the research was of good quality. Main findings showed patients with AN exhibit attentional bias towards social rejection cues, negative interpretation bias during ambiguous social scenarios, and heightened negative affect during and following rejection-based experiences. Physiological blunting during and following rejection-based experiences was observed in AN with some evidence to suggest this remediates during the process of weight-restoration. demonstrating an incongruence between affective and somatic experience in active illness.
Discussion
Our results suggest females with AN display a cognitive profile that could lead to a tendency to expect rejection, readily perceive rejection and react with more intense negative affect to rejection-based cues, with limited evidence to suggest this cognitive profile persists in recovery. Our results can be interpreted through theoretical models that postulate drive for thinness may partially function to cope with anticipated or experienced rejection
Online Self-Exclusion – Recommended Code of Practice
Get PDFVoluntary self-exclusion is one of the oldest and most prevalent tool that jurisdictions with regulated gambling almost uniformly expect to be available to players either through national self-exclusion registers and / or through gambling operators’ schemes. As an element of their overall social responsibility toolbox, it is an important measure to minimise harm and to allow players to take an effective break from gambling that may cause harm.
However, the relative uniformity of the expectation that self-exclusion should be available ends here. Each jurisdiction sets their own specific rules relating to the duration of self-exclusion, initiation and termination, and what responsibilities accrue to players and operators following such self-exclusion. Furthermore, no best practice has yet been identified that could be applied internationally and current evaluation of effectiveness of existing schemes is limited. As such significant variations continue to exist across different states and very limited evidence is available as to what is indeed effective with helping players avoid gambling-related harm.
This voluntary self-exclusion Code has been devised by a group of passionate, international experts in order to support regulators, operators and other stakeholders in being able to identify best practices that are capable of being applied globally within many different jurisdictions. The project is a culmination of extensive work carried out in three phases – (1) international literature review, (2) task and finish working group composed of all stakeholders’ representatives covering three different continents and (3) wide ranging international consultation on the draft recommendations
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