NUPI Research Online (Norwegian Institute of International Affairs)
Not a member yet
1579 research outputs found
Sort by
Blikket i glasskulen: NATO de neste 70 år
Get PDFHvordan vil det gå med NATO? Vil alliansen overleve de neste 70 år? Hvilke utfordringer vil alliansen i så fall måtte håndtere? Artikkelen spekulerer på fremtiden og forsøker å se inn i glasskulen og peke på noen mulige utviklingstrekk. Jeg argumenterer at NATO trolig vil bestå, men dens relevans vil avhenge av hvor tilpasningsdyktig den er i forhold til nye utfordringer. I tillegg må verdifellesskapet og solidariteten bestå om alliansen skal være noe mer enn en papirtiger. På kort sikt er det de transatlantiske relasjonene som bekymrer mest, mens klimaendringer og migrasjon, samt den raske digitaliseringen av samfunnene våre, er trender som vil utfordre NATO på sikt.publishedVersio
Does peacekeeping work? Key findings from recent research in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Mali
Get PDFsubmittedVersio
Desinformasjon virker
Get PDFHvordan skal vi bekjempe desinformasjon? I USA har ulike forskergrupper arbeidet med å systematisere og kartlegge omfanget av desinformasjon rundt presidentvalget. De har nylig lagt frem sine rapporter til Senatet. Disse hjelper oss å forstå omfanget og strategien bak. For det første, viser forskerne at omfanget av desinformasjon er større enn mange hadde trodd, kanalene som benyttes er også flere enn mange først trodde. Facebook er velkjent, men også You Tube, Instagram, Twitter og andre sosiale medier brukes. Annen forskning viser at «fake news» retweetes oftere enn andre nyheter, og at rundt en av fire nyheter som ble retweetet i den amerikanske valgkampen var falske. For det andre, er det nå mer klarhet rundt den overordnede strategien bak desinformasjonskampanjen, som de knytter til den russiske Internett Research Agency (IRA). Byrået hadde tydelig definerte målgrupper: Afroamerikanske velgere, samt ytterpunktene på den politiske høyre- eller venstresiden. Og det hadde en klar strategi. I første fase forsøkte man å forsterke identiteten og lojaliteten innad i de ulike gruppene. Deretter forsøkte man å sette de ulike gruppene opp mot hverandre, for eksempel sorte mot hvite, med sikte på å øke splittelse og frustrasjon i samfunnet. Som et tredje ledd forsøkte man samtidig å bryte ned tilliten til etablerte medier og ledere, ved å spre konspirasjonsteorier, falske mistanker og rykter. Det var ikke ett konsistent bilde, eller én fortelling, som ble fortalt, men det er altså mange ulike, og ofte konkurrerende, falske fortellinger som ble spredt for å undergrave hele samfunnssystemet. Målet var ikke å få oppslutning om ett budskap, eller én politikk, men å undergrave borgeres tillit til hverandre og til samfunn og myndigheter, utnytte og forsterke sosiale spenninger, spre mistillit til informasjonssystemet, skape uklarheter mellom sannhet og fiksjon, samt undergrave troverdigheten til det demokratiske system. Forskerne fant at målene ble nådd med stor kompetanse og presisjon. Den nye teknologien og sosiale medier gjorde også at man kunne treffe målgruppene bedre, spre informasjon lettere, billigere og mer effektivt, og det var samtidig lettere å skjule sine spor. Det mest bekymringsfulle er kanskje likevel at desinformasjon synes å virke, på individ og på samfunn. Spørsmålet er derfor hvordan vi best kan beskytte oss.(se full tekst)Desinformasjon virkersubmittedVersio
How can Peace Operations Help to Prevent Conflict and Contribute to Achieving the SDGs? Lessons Learned from the OSCE Mission in Ukraine
No full textsubmittedVersio
Generation Putin.Values, orientations and political participation
No full textIn spring 2017, many young Russians took to the streets of major cities like Moscow and St Petersburg in protest against the authorities. Since then, the generation that has grown up after the fall of the Soviet Union has captured the imagination of the general public, within the country and abroad. Researchers and journalists have been drawn to ‘Generation Putin,’ the generation that has grown up and come of age during Putin’s rule and now is gaining the right to vote and entering the political landscape. The Levada Center, an independent research organization based in Moscow, has conducted quantitative and qualitative sociological studies aimed at finding whether and how young Russians differ from the other generations. This paper presents the most significant differences according to data available from regular surveys and focus-group materials produced by the Levada Center.publishedVersio
Et ambisiøst fagmilitært råd
Get PDFEn diskusjon av det siste Fagmilitære rådet (FMR) fra ForsvarssjefenEt ambisiøst fagmilitært rådpublishedVersio
Should I stay or should I go? Security considerations for members leaving al-Shabaab in Somalia
Get PDFThe Somali jihadi organization al-Shabaab, yet again featured in the news internationally when they attacked a business and hotel complex in Nairobi 15 January this year. This is not the first time the group carries out largescale attacks outside the Somali boarders. Other examples are the Garissa University College attack in 2015, the mass shooting at Westgate shopping mall in Nairobi in 2013 and the Kampala attacks in 2010. However, the majority of the atrocities committed by al-Shabaab take place in South Central Somalia. The Global Terrorism Index 2018 ranked Somalia as number 6 on its list of countries most impacted by terrorism in 2017.1 Al-Shabaab was behind the deadliest terrorist attack in 2017 worldwide, when a suicide bomber detonated an explosives-laden truck, killing 587 people in Mogadishu. Although al-Shabaab has had several military setbacks the last few years, the group still poses a significant threat to security and stability in the region. As the name al-Shabaab (‘the youth’) indicates, young people predominate in the group. This means that thousands of individuals spend parts of their youth in al- Shabaab. The question then arises: how to best assist the ones who want to leave the group?publishedVersio
Women and the Katiba Macina in Central Mali
Get PDFThis policy brief examines the local rule of the Katiba Macina from a gender perspective and addresses the question of women’s participation in the insurgency. The key findings can be summarised as follows. First,controlling gender relations is an important element of the Katiba Macina’s rule, allowing the insurgency to demonstrate its authority over the community. Second, its rule has also had a gendered impact, which has restricted livelihoods in ways that threaten not only women’s socio-economic security, but also their way of life and identity. Third, women, like in most other jihadist insurgencies, are not recruited as combatants, but have multi-faceted supporting roles as wives of ‘men of the bush’ and as informants in informal surveillance mechanisms that pass on information and contribute to maintaining law and order. Moreover, women are more likely to actively participate when they are bonded to the insurgency through familial ties.Women and the Katiba Macina in Central MalipublishedVersio
Sunnism, Salafism, Sheikism: Urban Pathways of Resistance in Sidon, Lebanon
Get PDFThis brief analyses Salafism as an urban phenomenon, with an emphasis on the contentious period following the Syrian uprising turned civil war (2011–present). To understand Salafism’s popular appeal, it is necessary to examine the pathways of resistance in specific urban contexts. In Lebanon, Salafism expanded from its Tripoli centre to secondary towns and cities such as Sidon, where Sheikh Ahmad Assir’s neo-Salafism became a political force and can be classified as a “new social movement”. Neo-Salafism, is not built on religious credentials and authority, but combines populism with sectarianism. This also accounts for its popular appeal, especially after 2011, when the Syrian conflict stoked Sunni-Shia tensions and anti-Hizbollah rhetoric. The erosion of Sunni political pre-eminence (“Sunnism”) and the crises in the Sunni religious (Dar al-Fatwa) and political establishment (Future Movement), prompted a temporary shift from “Harirism” to “Sheikism” that transferred the moral leadership of the Sunni community from the political elite to the lay town preacher; Sheikh Ahmad al-Assir. This also involved a shift in the locus of contentious politics from the capital Beirut to secondary cities such as Sidon and a strategic shift from electoral politics to grassroots’ protests, sit-ins and rallies. Ultimately this led to an armed confrontation that crushed the Assir-movement, eroded its popular support and was followed by an electoral defeat that made political elites reassert control. HYRES – Hybrid Pathways to Resistance in the Islamic World HYRES studies the interaction between Islamist movements and the state in the cases of Iraq, Lebanon, Libya and Mali, and is designed to answer the following question: Why do some Islamist groups pursue their political and religious project within the state to which they belong – while other Islamist groups refuse to accept these borders, seeking instead to establish new polities, such as restoring the Islamic Caliphate? HYRES is funded by the Norwegian Research Council. For further information about HYRES see https://www.nupi.no/nupi_eng/About-NUPI/Projects-centres-and-programmes/Hybrid-paths-to-resistance-in-the-Muslim-world-Iraq-Lebanon-Libya-and-Mali.Sunnism, Salafism, Sheikism: Urban Pathways of Resistance in Sidon, LebanonpublishedVersio