NUPI Research Online (Norwegian Institute of International Affairs)
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The Sahel crisis and the need for international support
Get PDFThe crisis in the Sahel is serious and multidimensional, and if it continues unabated it could have consequences far beyond the region. As the states of the region are too poor and weak to deal with this on their own, international support is needed. It is therefore a positive sign that the region of Sahel is higher on the international agenda than it has ever been. The challenge, however, is that current international approaches and interventions in the Sahel are more in line with short-term external priorities, such as stopping irregular migration to Europe and fighting insurgencies that have been defined as part of a global complex of jihadist terrorism. There is no doubt that there is a migration crisis in the Sahel and we do need a military approach to several of the insurgencies. However, it must be part of a much broader agenda of humanitarian assistance and development support that is context and conflict sensitive. This policy dialogue addresses the root causes of the Sahel crisis and shows how the situation has evolved over time. The current crisis is deeply rooted in historical circumstances that external stakeholders cannot ignore. The main area of focus for the report is the epicentre of the current conflict, which is located in and around Mali, but which may have several important ramifications for the neighbouring G5 Sahel countries of Burkina Faso, Mauritania and Niger.publishedVersio
EU-Supported Reforms in the EU Neighbourhood as Organized Anarchies: The Case of Post-Maidan Ukraine
No full textThis publication is funded under the EU-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/693337/EU/Good intentions, mixed results – A conflict sensitive unpacking of the EU comprehensive approach to conflict and crisis mechanisms/EUNPACK/How does the EU and its member states organize their support for reforms in the countries of the EU Neighbourhood? Building on organization theory research on reforms as sets of loosely coupled ‘garbage can’ processes, we conceptualize the ENP induced reform processes as an organized framework connecting the reform capacities of not only the EU institutions but also EU member-state governments. We apply this approach to Ukraine in the post-Maidan period. We focus on the interplay between EU-level reform capacities and the capacities of two member states highly active in Ukraine, namely Germany and Sweden. As this case illustrates, the current approach provides a complementary perspective to mainstream approaches to the study of the EU’s external governance as it offers partial explanations of how organizational processes may impact on the efficiency of reforms promoted by the EU and its member states in the neighbouring countries.EU-Supported Reforms in the EU Neighbourhood as Organized Anarchies: The Case of Post-Maidan UkraineEUNPACKacceptedVersio
Local Drivers of Violent Extremism in Central Mali
No full textCette note d’orientation a pour objet d’étudier les processus de radicalisation et d’engagement dans l’extrémisme violent à Mopti, au centre du Mali. Plus particulièrement, elle examine les stratégies utilisées par la Katiba Macina, l’un des plus important groupe djihadiste violent présent dans la région. Elle vise également à répondre aux questions suivantes : 1) Dans la mesure où l’engagement dans l’extrémisme violent n’a pas pris racine de façon uniforme dans l’ensemble des régions du Mali, souvent parce les caractéristiques des dynamiques locales sont endogènes, comment la région de Mopti est-elle devenue un terrain favorable aux djihadistes du Katiba Macina ? 2) Comment des groupes tels que celui du Katiba Macina parviennent à mobiliser les soutiens au niveau local et à s’intégrer au sein des communautés ? 3) Pourquoi les individus décident d’adhérer ou de rejoindre la Katiba Macina ?This policy brief examines the processes of violent extremist mobilisation and radicalisation in Mopti, Central Mali. Specifically, it looks at the strategies employed by one of the most salient radical jihadist groups in the region, the Katiba Macina. It seeks to answer the following questions: 1) Given that violent extremist mobilisation has not taken root uniformly across regions in Mali, and because it is often endogenous to local dynamics, how has Mopti as a region become an enabling environment for jihadist actors like the Katiba Macina? 2) How do groups like the Katiba Macina mobilise local support and integrate themselves among communities? 3) Why do individuals join, adhere to or accept the Katiba Macina?publishedVersio
Comparing Cyber Security. Critical Infrastructure protection in Norway, the UK and Finland.
No full textCyber security and protecting critical infrastructures from digital harm are of increasing importance for governments around the globe. Tackling this issue is challenged by two distinct features of cyber security in Western states: Firstly, the transnational nature of digital risks and threats necessitates cooperation and engagements beyond the state, through international and regional organizations and institutions. Secondly, the considerable extent of private ownership forces states to rely on and engage with private companies, through regulation or public–private partnerships (PPP). Through comparative analysis of the approaches taken to PPP and European cooperation for energy and telecommunication in Finland, Norway and the UK, this report examines how states engage with these issues. The greatest difference is found to lie between the two Nordic states and the UK. This is not the result of divergent national perceptions and understandings, but of the more centralized and intelligence-centred approach taken by the UK in contrast to the whole-of-society trust-based approach of the Nordic states. Both approaches entail distinct benefits and drawbacks. The major concern in the Nordic states is the lack of public resources and capacity, as well as the fragmentation of responsibility and capabilities. Realizing the importance of culture, context and history in shaping how public authorities respond to cyber-security concerns is of vital importance for enabling better policies. This report concludes by presenting a set of best practices identified in the three case countries.Comparing Cyber Security. Critical Infrastructure protection in Norway, the UK and Finland.publishedVersio
Assessing the Effectiveness of the United Nations Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)
No full textpublishedVersio
The Arctic Council and US domestic policymaking
Get PDFOne widely recognized achievement of the Arctic Council and its various working groups has been the production of collectively generated assessments on Arctic problems. Assessment reports such as the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) provide an important baseline of shared knowledge for making collective circumpolar policy recommendations. But how does the knowledge produced through Arctic Council working groups figure into the policymaking of the Arctic states? This is an important question for understanding Arctic politics and the relationship between national decisionmaking and international relations more generally. Much of what the Arctic Council produces is in the form of recommendations, declarations of intent, and commitments to "best practices" in areas of shared interest and activity. While in recent years the Council has produced three binding agreements covering specific functional areas—search and rescue (2011), oil pollution preparedness and response (2013),and science cooperation (2017)—much ongoing Arctic collaborative work falls outside of these areas. This policy brief explores how science/policy outputs of and discussions at the Arctic Council fit into the Arctic political discourse of the USA, with an emphasis on key actors within the executive branch: the White House, the Department of the Interior, and the Environmental Protection Agency.The Arctic Council and US domestic policymakingpublishedVersio
Assessing the Effectiveness of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS)
No full textThe report focuses on the most recent period of UNMISS’ mandate (2014-18), aiming to provide a “snapshot” of the mission’s work across its four main mandate areas: the protection of civilians (PoC), facilitation of humanitarian delivery, promotion of human rights, and support to the peace process. As a large, multidimensional peacekeeping operation – with 17,000 troops, 2,000 police and 2,000 civilians – UNMISS has been provided with significant resources and an extraordinarily ambitious mandate. Assessing the match between resources and mandate, and the ways the Mission has adapted its approaches to be effective in extremely challenging circumstances is a key objective of this report. Throughout its existence, UNMISS has been part of a much broader regional and international constellation of actors working to stabilise the country and encourage conflict parties to enter into a meaningful peace process. In many cases, UNMISS has played a limited supportive, coordinating, or otherwise indirect role in the overall trajectory of the country; in others, it is a central actor in the eyes of the people of South Sudan. This presents a challenge to any assessment of the Mission because, at most, UNMISS can be considered one contributor among many working together to end the civil war and lay the foundations for durable peace. Causality in these settings is difficult to establish. Nevertheless, drawing on the substantial data and analyses available, and interviews with more than 260 people in South Sudan and the region over several weeks, this study presents a set of evidence-based findings about the impact of the Mission and the factors that have enabled and inhibited the fulfilment of its mandate.publishedVersio
Lebanese Sunni Islamism: A Post-Election Review
Get PDFThis research note analyses the internal and external factors that led to Al-Jama‘a al-Islamiyya‘s loss of its only parliamentary seat in 2018. Al-Jama‘a al-Islamiyya is the Lebanese branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. Through this case, the author assesses the status of Lebanon’s Sunni community and the electoral fortunes of regional Muslim Brotherhood organizations more generally. The main external factors leading to Al-Jama‘a al-Islamiyya’s electoral decline included the abandonment by the Future Movement, the law on proportional representation, potential regional involvement in the Lebanese elections and the rise of pro-Hezbollah Sunni MPs like those belonging to al-Ahbash. The internal challenges faced by Al-Jama‘a al-Islamiyya, on the other hand, include its strategic dilemma on how to position itself in the sectarianized 'New Middle East' after the Arab uprisings, as well as its organizational structure and its inability to properly convince its supporters of the last-minute alliance with the Christian Free Patriotic Movement (FPM). This note also analyses the fate of Lebanon’s Salafis and their absence from the elections, a result of the security pressures they face following their political support of the Islamist armed opposition in neighboring Syria. Furthermore, the research note explores the trajectory of the Al Masharee’ Association known as Al-Ahbash which, by returning to parliament in 2018, presented a fatal blow to the electoral hopes of Lebanon’s Sunni Islamists.Lebanese Sunni Islamism: A Post-Election ReviewpublishedVersio