1,720,983 research outputs found
Models on the Wrong Track: Model-Based Electricity Supply Scenarios in Switzerland are not Aligned with the Perspectives of Energy Experts and the Public
No full textModel-based scenarios have become the key method to explore uncertainties and alternatives in environmental decision-making. While retrospective scenario studies show that multi-organization, multi-model scenario ensembles increase the diversity of considered uncertainties, it remains unclear whether such ensembles also align with the stakeholder perspectives, including the wider public. This study compares a multi-organization, multi-model ensemble of 82 Swiss electricity supply scenarios for 2035 from a review of 19 studies between 2011-2018 with preferred scenarios from three samples of stakeholders: citizens from an online survey (N=61), informed citizens from participatory workshops (N=46), and energy experts from another online survey (N=60). For all samples of participants, preferred scenarios were elicited using an interactive web-tool Riskmeter. The results show that most informed citizens and experts preferred an almost 100% domestic renewable electricity supply in Switzerland in 2035. On the contrary, most model-based scenarios relied significantly on fossil fuel-based generation and net electricity imports. Possible reasons for this misalignment include the lack of broad stakeholder participation in the development of such scenarios and the modeling choices such as cost-optimization models that are known to underrepresent renewable electricity. For the Swiss electricity supply transition, the results indicate that a large-scale deployment of renewable electricity before 2035 is preferred by the expert and citizen samples and, therefore, such scenarios should be modeled more in the future. For both scenario developers and users, this study offers a word of caution that even a rich scenario ensemble could focus on alternatives that are not preferred by stakeholders. Additionally, this study demonstrates that diverse stakeholder and public perspectives can enrich scenario ensembles and that interactive web-tools could be a powerful solution for eliciting these perspectives
An empirical study of the desirability and usability of model-based scenarios for informing energy and low-carbon transitions
No full textModel-based scenario analysis is a key method for informing strategies of energy and low-carbon transitions. However, it remains unclear whether analyzed scenarios align with prominent perspectives from the wider public and whether scenario results are usable. In response, this thesis assessed the representation of citizen preferences in large scenario ensembles and the performance of various formats for scenario visualization in terms of supporting user understanding and engagement. Results showed that scenario ensembles for the 2035 electricity supply in France, Germany, Poland, Switzerland, and the European Union were only narrowly representative of citizen perspectives, underlining the need to consider informed and diverse citizen views in scenarios. Compared to most scenarios, most citizens preferred deeper decarbonization and/or denuclearization, increased electricity savings, and more renewable electricity. Among the tested visualization formats, none was consistently outperforming the rest. Nevertheless, customizing formats to user characteristics such as numeracy was shown to improve scenario usability.</p
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Full text linkThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Consensus on future EU electricity supply among citizens of France, Germany, and Poland: Implications for modeling
No full textEnergy scenarios should ideally account for societal feasibility and hence they could be informed by surveys on citizens' preferences. This study surveyed consensus among citizens of France (N = 202), Germany (N = 199), and Poland (N = 200) on their national and EU electricity supply for 2035, considering different demographics, political orientations, and attitudes towards the transition and its governance. Results showed a broad consensus among surveyed citizens who positively viewed hydro, rooftop and open field solar, onshore and offshore wind power, biomass, and electricity savings, and who negatively viewed Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and net electricity imports. Citizens on average preferred diversified national and EU scenarios with rapid decarbonization and denuclearization, limited imports from neighboring countries, and small shares of CCS. Such scenarios should be now evaluated by modelers
Variations on the Author
Full text link“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Full text linkWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
Empirical testing of the visualizations of climate change mitigation scenarios with citizens: A comparison among Germany, Poland, and France
No full textWhile scenarios are used extensively for communication about climate change mitigation, little is known about the interpretation of these scenarios by citizens. We conducted a cross-country empirical evaluation of scenario visualizations for global mitigation, using online surveys in Germany (N = 379), Poland (N = 223), and France (N = 225). Each respondent received visualizations of the required changes in global carbon dioxide emissions and composition of electricity supply (fossil fuels, nuclear, and renewable sources) for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C. We evaluated the effects of respondents' demographics, prior beliefs, numeracy, and graph literacy on the reading accuracy and knowledge gains from the visualizations. We also included an experimental between-groups design on visualization format, where four groups received different graph formats (steep or gradual graphs with depictions of uncertainty ranges or scenario ensembles) and the fifth group received a table. Results showed that higher education level, numeracy, and graph literacy increased reading accuracy in all countries, while age reduced them. Respondents with prior beliefs about climate change mitigation that matched the information in the visualizations had also higher reading accuracy and knowledge gains. While the effects of different visualization formats were comparatively minor, customizing formats according to demographic and country differences was used to reduce adverse effects from these differences. These results emphasize the need to design visualizations that match characteristics of the intended audience and could inform better communication of climate change mitigation scenarios to non-expert audience
Results of online consultation: Deliverable 2.2 on the DEEDS project
No full textOn November 2018, the High-Level Panel of the European Decarbonisation Pathways Initiative published a report that outlined a Research and Innovation (R&I) strategy for a low-carbon future in the EU, while growing the competitiveness of the EU economy. In the context of the DEEDS project, an online survey was developed to collect feedback on the report's key messages from experts, businesses, and stakeholders of the EU decarbonisation. The survey ran from March to June 2019, reaching a final sample of N=189. This report presents the results of this survey
Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts
Full text linkWe conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued
use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation
counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more
sophisticated methods
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