84 research outputs found
Treuhandanstalt and investment acquisitions: How to ensure that contracts are kept?
No full textThe process of selling a state-owned company in former centrally planned economies (CPEs) differs greatly from that of buying a private company in western market economies. While a private seller is normally interested in selling his portfolio expensively, a privatizing agency in CPEs has additional goals: she intends to ensure, e.g., that the purchaser continues the company, makes certain investments or maintains a certain number of jobs. Consequently, these concerns are a potential source of conflict. This paper gives an overview of how the German Treuhandanstalt (THA) copes with the problem. It investigates o first what the THA has done in establishing a contractual framework reflecting her social goals and - second how effective this framework has been in realizing them. The results are mixed: the THA has been very successful in putting an investor on the chain. However, she has invested a lot of money. Time must tell whether the results make all these efforts worthwhile.
Research in medical education - chances and challenges : international conference, 20th - 22nd May 2009, Heidelberg ; congress abstracts
No full textDevID: Blockchain-based Portfolios for Software Developers
No full textDecentralized applications, also known as dApps, are the new paradigm for writing business-critical software. Recruiting developers with appropriate qualifications and skills for this activity is key, yet challenging. The main problem is that the portfolio of developers is usually scattered across centralized platforms like GitHub and LinkedIn, and vendor locked. This can result in an incomplete impression of their capabilities.We address this problem and introduce DevID, a blockchain-based portfolio for developers. Over time, this portfolio enables developers to build up a trustworthy collection of records that showcase their capabilities and expertise. They can import data assets from third parties into a unified DevID portfolio, add projects and skills, and receive endorsements. All portfolio records are stored on a scalable distributed ledger and owned by developers themselves. The essential idea is to exploit the tamper-proof property of the blockchain while providing durable storage.To demonstrate the practical value of DevID, we build the competition-based platform, dAppCoder, for the development of decentralized applications. On dAppCoder clients are able to submit their ideas and developers can find work. dAppCoder utilizes DevID portfolios to match these clients and developers. We fully implement our ideas and conduct a deployment trial. Our trial demonstrates that DevID is efficient at storing portfolio records.Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.Data-Intensive SystemsSoftware Engineerin
Crossing Mountains: The Challenges of Doing Environmental History
No full textThis issue of RCC Perspectives uses mountains as a common denominator around which to discuss overarching challenges of environmental history: challenges relating not only to mountain landscapes, but also to broader questions of sources, methods, cross-cultural research, project scale, and audience. Each author discusses some of their most intriguing discoveries, resulting in a brief and diverse collection of environmental history snapshots. At the same time, authors reflect on the process of doing environmental history, relating specific setbacks and opportunities they have faced. The volume thus offers a sort of handbook of advice and encouragement to other scholars. Portraying both a demanding project and a trove of fascinating results, this volume uses mountain landscapes to trigger wide-ranging reflections upon the pursuit of environmental history
Potential Risks to Stable Long-term Outcome of Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation for Children With Cerebral X-linked Adrenoleukodystrophy
No full textActs of vandalism on the infrastructure of Estonian Railways, possible reasons and solutions
No full textTöö ülesehitus põhineb kahel peamisel analüüsi allikal. Nendeks on EVR-i poolt kogutud infokogum ning CPTED käsiraamat politseinikele, millest viimane keskendub suures osas psühholoogilisele lähenemisele läbi linnaruumi kujundamise. EVR-ilt saadud sisendallika põhjal koostati statistiline analüüs. Esmalt saadi üldine ülevaade regionaalsest, ajalisest ja liigilisest aspektist lähtuvalt. Seejärel võeti põhinäitajaks vandalismiaktid 1000 elaniku kohta ning alustati detailsemat analüüsi. Antud näitaja põhjal välja joonistunud skeemist võeti edasiseks käsitlemiseks kolm suurima näitajaga maakonda. Kolm maakonda olid: Lääne-Virumaa, Jõgevamaa ning Harjumaa. Edasi keskenduti kõikidele juhtumitele nendes maakondades ning selgitati välja piirkonna probleemsemad kohad ja vandalismi juhtumite tüübid. Kõigis kolmes maakonnas esines kindel asustusüksus, mis teiste hulgast silmnähtavalt esile tõusis. Lääne-Virumaal oli selleks Tapa, kus toimus 2016. a ligikaudu 48,3% kogu regiooni juhtumitest. Jõgevamaal eristust teistest mõneti ootamatult Tabivere. Tabiveres toimus 58,3% Jõgevamaa aktidest. Harjumaal seevastu üllatust ei esinenud ning ülekaalukalt enim akte toimus Tallinnas – 58,7%. Ratsionaalsuse huvides (raudtee territoriaalne osakaal linnas võrreldes teistega on oluliselt suurem) analüüsis autor eraldi ka Tallinnat. Tallinna linnas toimus enim vandaalitsemist Tondil. Tondile järgnesid Balti jaam ja Kopli jaam. Juhtumeid vastavalt 24, 19 ning 10. Ajaliselt ilmnes, et kevadel ja sügisel on suurem tõenäosus vandaalitsemiseks kui suvel. Talvel toimub keskmiselt 20 juhtumit vähem, kui ülejäänud aastaaegadel. Kahel viimasel aastal on aprill olnud juhtumiterohkeim kuu. Liigilisest analüüsist selgus, et enim valmistab muret ja probleeme lõhkumine. Lõhkumine moodustas üle poole juhtumite koguarvust – 55,3%. Kõrvaliste esemete ja isikute teele sattumine moodustas järgmisena koguarvust 22,7%. Sodimist esines 9,6%-il juhtumitest. Eeltoodud vastuste alusel on võimalik vastata sissejuhatuses seatud kahele esimesele uurimisküsimusele. Küsimusteks olid: • Kus toimuvad vandalismi aktid? • Millised on enamelvinud vandalismi liigid? Politseinike käsiraamatu CPTED põhjal keskenduti võimalike põhjuste ning lahenduste otsimisele. Selleks kaasati ka PPA ametnik Varmo Rein, kellega korraldati kohtumine, kus arutleti linnaruumist tulenevat mõju vandalismile. Autor sai kinnitust oma väidetele. Hooldamata ja korrastamata ümbruskond kutsub ligi tegevuseta noori, kes sisustavad oma aega vandaalitsemisega. Suur roll on ka vabal ligipääsul, nagu näiteks Kopli jaam. Balti jaama ümbruses olev arenev Kalamaja piirkond soodustab kõrvaliste isikute ja esemete raudteele sattumist. Soodustamine väljendub eelkõige rohketes meelelahutusasutustes, siia juurde kuuluvad ka mitmed alkoholi müügile keskendunud kauplused. Juhtumite arvu ei ole võimalik viia täiesti nulli, kuid läbi linnaruumi planeerimise ja kujundamise on võimalik vähendada võimalusi vandalismiks, mis omakorda toob kaasa vähem reaalselt elluviidud akte.Conception of this thesis (Acts of vandalism on the infrastructure of Estonian Railways, possible reasons and solutions) is based on two primary analytical sources. Those two sources are: collected information by the Estonian Railways and CPTED Manual for police officers. CPTED focuses on environmental design and its influence to human psychology. Statistical analysis was made by author, based on the information which was collected by the Estonian Railways. At first main focus was on basic overview which contained the data of place, time and type of vandalism. After that author of this work concentrated on one main indicator – acts of vandalism per 1000 people. This type of approach shows more accurate results because then there is no influence of highly populated regions. Analyses showed that top three of incident occurances were Lääne-Virumaa, Jõgevamaa and Harjumaa. From here on an author of this thesis focused on those three counties to find out the most problematic regions and the most occurred types of vandalism acts. In each of those three districts there was one place which differed from others. The city of Tapa was a place which differed in Lääne-Virumaa county. 48,3% of all Lääne-Virumaa incidents happened in Tapa. 58,3% of all Jõgevamaa incidents happened in Tabivere, which is surprising. Most cases in Harjumaa were registered in Tallinn (58,7%). Author also analysed Tallinn because of its size (In Tallinn railway territory is way bigger than other regions). Top three of most cases in Tallinn were: Tondi (24 acts of vandalism), Kopli station (19 incidents) and Balti station (10 cases). Probability of vandalism rises rapidly in spring and lasts to autumn. Probability decreases in winter. The most cases has been recorded in April, two years in a row – 40+ cases. Concentrating to the types of incidents there was one major category what differed from others – breaking something. Over 55% of all cases included breaking something (safety barriers, infrastructure buildings, platforms and other properties of infrastructure). Next category was unauthorized persons and items on railway – over 22% of all incidents. Painting (graffiti) was registered 9,6% of cases and others (non-classified acts) was registered 12,4% of all. Based on previous answers it is possible to answer author’s thesis questions, which were: • Where does acts of vandalism take place? • What are the most common acts of vandalism? Based on CPTED, author focused on finding reasons of vandalism and solutions for reducing number of vandalism cases. There was arranged a meeting with Varmo Rein, officer of Police and Board Guard. Meeting comprised a discussion over vandalism and environmental design – connection between those two aspects. This meeting confirmed author’s statements about Tapa, Kopli and Balti station - untended and disordered environment attracts bored youth gangs to vandalize. For example Kopli station, there is absolutely free access to cargo station which has a big impact. Balti station has a major problem with unauthorized persons and items getting on railway. This station is located near Kalamaja district which is developing rapidly. It means that there are many entertainment businesses such as bars, pubs, restaurants, alcohol shops, etc. It is impossible to lose all kind of vandalism acts, but it is possible to reduce the chances for incidents through environmental design. Reducing chances means less actually committed acts
On robust and efficient designs for risk estimation in epidemiologic studies
No full textWe consider the design problem for the estimation of several scalar measures suggested in the epidemiological literature for comparing the success rate in two samples. The designs considered so far in the literature are local in the sense that they depend on the unknown probabilities of success in the two groups and are not necessarily robust with respect to their misspecification. A maximin approach is proposed to obtain efficient and robust designs for the estimation of the relative risk, attributable risk and odds ratio, whenever a range for the success rates can be specified by the experimenter. It is demonstrated that the designs obtained by this method are usually more efficient than the uniform design, which allocates equal sample sizes to the two groups. --two by two table,odds ratio,relativ risk,attributable risk,optimal design,efficient design
A risk analysis and performance stability plan of emergency recovery performance ability of AS Eesti Raudtee
No full textRiskianalüüs ja toimepidevuse plaan on olulised instrumendid suurte ettevõttete jaoks, mis võimaldavad hinnata teenuse toimimiseks vajalikke ressursse ja koostada tegutsemisplaane juhtudeks, kui teenuse jaoks vajalikud ressursid või tegevused kas kaovad täiesti ära või nende maht ja kvaliteet järsku kukub tasemeni, mis enam ei võimalda osutada teenust täies mahus, või on risk, et teenust võib katkeda. Käesolevas töös keskendus autor avarii tagajärgede likvideerimise riskide väljaselgitamisele ja selle tegevuse ressursside olulisuse hindamisel. Olid tehtud ettepanekud ennetavate meetmete variantide kohta tegevuse katkemise vältimiseks. Riskianalüüsi alusel oli koostatud toimepidevuse plaan, kus oli kirjeldatud ettevõtte tegevused, negatiivse stsenaariumite realiseerimisel ja mõni tegevuse ressurssi ärakadumisel. Analüüsi käigus oli väljaselgitatud et avarii taastamistööde teostamiseks kõige tähtsamad ressursid on personal, seadmed, partnerid ja varustajad ning teave. Töö autori hinnangul on kõige tõenäolisemad negatiivsed stsenaariumid, mille tagajärjel võib katkeda kogu tegevuse toimimine, on tehniliste seadmete rikked, probleemid personaliga. Seadmete tehniliste rikete kõrge tõenäosus on enamasti seotud raudteekraanade tehnilise ja moraalse vananemisega. Vaatamata sellele, et on rakendatud mitmesugused ennetavad meetmed, sealhulgas kraanade õigeaegsed hooldused, remondid, koostöökokkulepped riigiasutustega, negatiivse stsenaariumi tõenäosus on ikka väga suur. Ennetavaks meetmeks, mis võimaldaks seda tõenäosust minimeerida, oleks kahe uute raudteekraanade sisseost. Personali probleemid on seotud päästerongi töötajate keskmise vanusega, mõned on juba pensionivanuses ja paljud on selle lähedal, ja töötingimustega. Päästerongis puudub järelkasvuprogramm ja töötingimuste tõttu antud ametikohad ei ole atraktiivsed raudtee väljas töötavate spetsialistide joaks. On oht, et mitmekümneaastased kogemused jäävad edasiandmata ja tänase päeva töötajate äraminekuga AS Eesti Raudtee päästerongi üksus jääb ilma personalita. Ennetavaks meetmeks oleks järelkasvuprogrammi loomine ja ametikohtade atraktiivsuse tõstmine. Kuna pidevalt muutuvas maailmas, raudtee puhul muutuvad sõidu kiirused, veeremi tüübid (Stadler Flirt rongide tulek), reisijate arvud, ohtlike kaupade nimetused, arvud ja põhilised liikumise piirkonnad, 100% riske ette näha ei ole füüsiliselt võimalik, siis riskianalüüsi teostamine on selline protsess, mida kunagi ei tohi peatada, sest just sellel hetkel, kui lõpetame seda tegevust, realiseerub just selline stsenaarium, mida ei saanud tuvastada endistes riskianalüüsides.The following thesis deal with subject of „A risk analysis and performance stability plan of emergency recovery performance ability of AS Eesti Raudtee“ A risk analysis and performance stability plan are important instruments for large companies that enable them to assess the resources necessary for the operation of the service and to draw up plans for action in cases where the resources or activities required for the service are either completely lost or their volume and quality suddenly fall to a level that no longer allows the service to be delivered in full, or there is a risk that the service may be disrupted. In this thesis, the author focused on identifying the risks of eliminating the consequences of an accident and assessing the significance of the resources of that activity. Proposals had been made for options for preventive measures to avoid interruption of activities. Based on the risk analysis, an operational plan was drawn up describing the activities for the realization of negative scenarios and some plans of the operation in case of resource loss. The analysis had established that the most important resources for performing emergency recovery work were personnel, equipment, partners and suppliers, as well as information. According to the author of the work, the most likely negative scenarios that could result in a disruption of all activities are failures of technical equipment and problems with personnel. The high probability of technical failures of equipment is mostly related to the technical and moral ageing of railway cranes. Although various preventive measures have been implemented, including timely crane maintenance, repairs, cooperation agreements with public authorities, the likelihood of a negative scenario is still very high. A proactive measure that would allow this likelihood to be minimized would be the purchase of two new railway cranes. Staff problems are related to the average age of the staff in the rescue train - some are already in the retirement age and many are close to it - and the working conditions. The rescue train does not have a personnel replacement program and the posts are not attractive to specialists working outside the railway due to working conditions. There is a risk that decades of experience will not be passed on and the AS Eesti Raudtee Rescue train unit will be left without personnel at the resignation of today's employees. A preventive measure would be the creation of a personnel replacement program and improvement of the attractiveness of posts. Since, in a constantly changing world, in the case of railways, the speed of driving, the types of rolling stock (Stadler Flirt trains arrival), passenger numbers, names of dangerous goods, numbers and main areas of movement, 100% risks cannot be foreseen. However, carrying out a risk analysis is a process that must never be stopped, because just now we stop this activity, a scenario that could not be identified in the former risk assessments, will materialize
Marginal and Dependence Uncertainty: Bounds, Optimal Transport, And Sharpness
No full textMotivated by applications in model-free finance and quantitative risk management, we consider Frechet classes of multivariate distribution functions where additional information on the joint distribution is assumed, while uncertainty in the marginals is also possible. We derive optimal transport duality results for these Frechet classes that extend previous results in the related literature. These proofs are based on representation results for convex increasing functionals and the explicit computation of the conjugates. We show that the dual transport problem admits an explicit solution for the function f = 1B, where B is a rectangular subset of Rd, and provide an intuitive geometric interpretation of this result. The improved Frechet-Hoeffding bounds provide ad hoc bounds for these Frechet classes. We show that the improved Frechet-Hoeffding bounds are pointwise sharp for these classes in the presence of uncertainty in the marginals, while a counterexample yields that they are not pointwise sharp in the absence of uncertainty in the marginals, even in dimension 2. The latter result sheds new light on the improved Frechet-Hoeffding bounds, since Tankov [J. Appl. Probab., 48 (2011), pp. 389-403] has showed that, under certain conditions, these bounds are sharp in dimension 2.Applied Probabilit
Some Aspects of Cumulative Risk
No full textThe classical treatment of stochastic models in non-life insurance is to first derive the well-known Poisson distribution by considering the question of how many claims take place during a definite period t. In deriving this distribution the following three assumptions are made: ( I) The population studied is homogeneous. ( II) The occurrence of a claim is a rare event, viz. in an infinite-simal time interval [t, t + Δt], the probability of more than one occurrence must be of the order of magnitude o(Δt). (III) The occurrence of any later claim is not influenced by previous ones (no contagion). In my purely theoretical study [5]), the consequences of discarding one or more of the above assumptions were considered. By so generalizing the Poisson distribution, a great many stochastic models can be built, although the results were not always successful. The following study concentrates on some considerations based on assumption (II). The theoretical formulation of the model will be dealt with briefly and the author would first make reference to the instructive article of Thyrion [7] which was unfortunately unknown to him when he was preparing his already mentioned paper. Ammeter [2] and Arfwedson [3] have also considered special cases of this generalization. With the help of the statistics over traffic accidents in the city of Zurich, I hope to throw some more light on the practical aspects of the problem. To the Statistics Office of this city I would express my thanks for kindly placing all documents at my disposa
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