1,720,996 research outputs found
Geopolitical fragmentation and trade
No full textWhat are the economic consequences of geopolitical fragmentation on trade? We answer this question by using a canonical general equilibrium trade model to quantify the trade and welfare effects stemming from world trade fragmentation along geopolitical borders. To calibrate the size of the increase in trade costs, we use a new aggregate measure of trade restrictions that spans over the last 70 years and includes up to 157 countries and estimate the impact on trade of very broad trade policy restrictions in a theory-consistent structural gravity framework. We estimate that a fragmentation into three different trade blocs (Western, Eastern, Neutral)-defined according to how countries voted on the suspension of the rights of membership of the Russian Federation in the United Nations Human Rights Council because of the invasion of Ukraine- would have important effects on trade between them, reducing trade flows by 22%-57%, in the most extreme scenarios. Welfare losses would be the largest in the Eastern bloc, where the median country would experience a welfare loss of up to 3.4%
The drivers of Italian exports and product market entry: 1862-1913 (Versión actualizada. Agosto 2020)
No full textEntre su Unificación y la Primera Guerra Mundial, la cambiante composición de las exportaciones de Italia reflejó su transformación económica. En este artículo, descompongo el crecimiento de las exportaciones italianas en sus márgenes y luego analizo los determinantes de las exportaciones italianas y la entrada (y salida) de los productos en los mercados. Para ello, utilizo dos bases de datos diferentes (datos comerciales bilaterales agregados y a nivel de producto) y metodologías (modelos de gravedad y logit). Además de confirmar algunos hechos empíricos e históricos bien conocidos para el caso italiano (las variables de gravedad se mantienen; el comercio sigue un patrón de Heckscher-Olhin), los resultados de la regresión ofrecen una nueva perspectiva sobre dos rasgos distintivos de su historia: la política comercial y la emigración. Estos dos factores están asociados positivamente con las exportaciones italianas y la entrada de los productos en los mercados. Estos hallazgos también tienen implicaciones adicionales para el papel de la emigración en el curso de la economía italiana: teniendo en cuenta el canal comercial, su efecto podría ser mayor de lo estimado anteriormente.Between its Unification and WWI, Italy’s changing export composition echoed its economic transformation. In this paper I decompose Italian export growth in its margins, and then analyse the determinants of Italian exports and product market entry (and exit). To do so, I use two different databases (aggregate and product-level bilateral trade data) and methodologies (gravity and logit models). Besides confirming some well-known empirical and historical facts for the Italian case (gravity variables hold; trade follows a Heckscher-Olhin pattern), the regression results offer a new perspective on two distinctive features of its history: trade policy and emigration. These two factors are positively associated with Italian exports and product market entry. These findings also have additional implications for the role of emigration on the course of the Italian economy: accounting for the trade channel, its overall effect may be larger than previously thought
Marc Flandreau, Anthropologists in the stock exchange: A financial history of Victorian science, Chicago, Chicago University Press, 2016, 416 pp.
Full text linkStaying dry on Spanish wine: the rejection of the 1905 Spanish-Italian trade agreement (Versión actualizada mayo 2020)
No full textDespués de un largo debate sobre los aranceles a la importación de vino, el 17 de diciembre de 1905 el Parlamento italiano no ratificó el acuerdo comercial entre España e Italia. Esta decisión, un episodio inusual para un país con un nivel relativamente bajo de protección, dejó a España y a Italia sin un acuerdo comercial bilateral durante toda una década. En la literatura, cuestiones políticas más amplias e intereses locales se indican alternativamente como los principales impulsores del rechazo. Utilizando una base de datos construida manualmente que recopila variables económicas y políticas, incluidas las características personales de los parlamentarios, y basándose en un modelo probit, este documento proporciona un análisis cuantitativo del voto. Los resultados muestran que los intereses locales desempeñaron un papel en la determinación del resultado de la votación del tratado comercial. Además, los intereses de la circunscripción también fueron importantes para los «cambiadores de voto», es decir, aquellos parlamentarios que apoyaron la postura general de la política gubernamental en la primera ronda, pero se opusieron al acuerdo comercial español-italiano en la segunda.After a long debate on wine import tariffs, the Italian Parliament failed to ratify the Spanish- Italian trade agreement on December 17th, 1905. This decision - an unusual episode for a country with relatively low level of protection - left Spain and Italy without a bilateral trade treaty for an entire decade. In the literature, broader political issues and local interests are alternatively indicated as the main drivers of the rejection. Based on a manually assembled database which collects economic and political variables, including MPs personal features, and using a probit model, this paper provides a quantitative analysis of the vote. Results show that constituency interests had a role in determining the result of the vote on the trade treaty. Moreover, constituency interests were also important for the 'vote switchers', i.e. those MPs that supported the overall government policy stance in the first round, but opposed the Spanish-Italian trade agreement in the second.Versión actualizada mayo 202
Revisiting the 'Cobden-Chevalier network' trade and welfare effects
Full text linkEste estudio revisa los efectos sobre el comercio y el bienestar del bilateralismo del siglo XIX aprovechando los últimos avances en los modelos de gravedad estructural, incluida la consideración del comercio doméstico. Utilizando datos de comercio bilateral entre 1855 y 1875, muestro que la red Cobden-Chevalier, es decir, un sistema de acuerdos comerciales bilaterales que también incluye la cláusula de la nación más favorecida, tuvo efectos importantes, positivos y significativos en el comercio entre sus miembros. Sin embargo, estos eran heterogéneos en cuanto a tratados. A continuación, calculo sus efectos de equilibrio general sobre el comercio total y el bienestar. Estos son considerables, mientras que los efectos de desviación del comercio son limitados. Los resultados modifican la comprensión de la red Cobden-Chevalier, lo que ayuda a racionalizar aún más la «epidemia del libre comercio» de las décadas de 1860 y 1870.This study revisits the trade and welfare effects of 19th century bilateralism exploiting the latest developments in structural gravity models, including the consideration of domestic trade. Using bilateral trade data between 1855 and 1875, I show that the Cobden-Chevalier network, i.e. a system of bilateral trade agreements including the Most Favored Nation clause, had large, positive and significant effects on members’ trade. These, however, were heterogeneous at the treaty-level. I then calculate its general equilibrium effects on total trade and welfare. They are considerable, while trade diversion effects are negligible. These results reshape the understanding of the Cobden-Chevalier network, helping in further rationalizing the “free trade epidemic” of the 1860s and 1870s
Los desequilibrios económicos de China y el papel del sector financiero
Full text linkArtículo de revistaEl éxito económico de China en las últimas décadas ha estado asociado a un singular patrón de crecimiento, basado en un peso elevado de la inversión, que ha generado un elevado endeudamiento en el sector privado no financiero. Las autoridades chinas, conscientes del agotamiento de este modelo, han situado el «reequilibrio» del patrón de crecimiento como uno de sus principales objetivos de política económica. Uno de los aspectos de este reequilibrio consiste en promover un desapalancamiento ordenado, que evite un ajuste brusco de la economía. En este contexto, este artículo discute los retos a los que se enfrentan las autoridades chinas para reducir el nivel de endeudamiento de los sectores no financieros y para mitigar los riesgos asociados al crecimiento excesivo del sistema financiero y, en particular, del sector bancario en la sombr
Essays on monetary integration and the political economy of international trade, 1860-1913
Full text linkMención Internacional en el título de doctorTo understand how international agreements – being these free trade agreements, currency unions or treaties of other characteristics – shape the course of trade, how trade per se evolves and expands over time, and how these agreements are formed, accepted or rejected are therefore fundamental questions to be asked.I wish to acknowledge funding from the People Programme (Marie-Curie Actions) of the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013 under REA grant agreement no. 608129Programa Oficial de Doctorado en Historia EconómicaPresidente: Giovanni Federico; Secretario: Brian A'Hearn; Vocal: Michael Huberma
China's economic imbalances and the role of the financial sector
Full text linkArtículo de revistaChina’s economic success in recent decades has been associated with a distinctive, highly investment dependent, pattern of growth, which has led to a high level of non-financial private sector debt. The Chinese authorities, recognising that this model has reached its limits, have made “rebalancing” the pattern of growth one of their key economic policy objectives. One feature of this rebalancing is that of promoting an orderly deleveraging process to avoid a sharp adjustment of the economy. In this context, this article discusses the challenges being faced by the Chinese authorities as they seek to reduce non-financial sector debt levels and mitigate the risks associated with the excessive growth of the financial system, and of the shadow banking sector in particula
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Full text linkThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
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