204 research outputs found
The New Classical Counter-Revolution: False Path or Illuminating Complement?
No full textIn this paper the author responds to Laurence Seidman’s recent article, ‘The New Classical Counter-Revolution: A False Path for Macroeconomics’. The author challenges the view that new classical macroeconomics has been a false path and provides a critique of Seidman’s arguments with respect to his interpretation of the 1970s ‘stagflation’, the relevance of new classical macroeconomics for practical policymaking, the contribution of real business cycle theory, and the new classical content of contemporary macroeconomic textbooks. The author concludes that the new classical counter-revolution has had an extremely productive influence on the current mainstream new neoclassical synthesis framework.
ROLE of inter-related population-level host traits in determining pathogen richness and zoonotic risk
No full textAbstractZoonotic diseases are an increasingly important source of human infectious diseases, and host pathogen richness of reservoir host species is a critical driver of spill-over risk. Population-level traits of hosts such as population size, host density and geographic range size have all been shown to be important determinants of host pathogen richness. However, empirically identifying the independent influences of these traits has proven difficult as many of these traits directly depend on each other. Here we develop a mechanistic, metapopulation, susceptible-infected-recovered model to identify the independent influences of these population-level traits on the ability of a newly evolved pathogen to invade and persist in host populations in the presence of an endemic pathogen. We use bats as a case study as they are highly social and an important source of zoonotic disease. We show that larger populations and group sizes had a greater influence on the chances of pathogen invasion and persistence than increased host density or the number of groups. As anthropogenic change affects these traits to different extents, this increased understanding of how traits independently determine pathogen richness will aid in predicting future zoonotic spill-over risk.</jats:p
Evaluating Bayesian spatial methods for modelling species distributions with clumped and restricted occurrence data.
No full textStatistical approaches for inferring the spatial distribution of taxa (Species Distribution Models, SDMs) commonly rely on available occurrence data, which is often clumped and geographically restricted. Although available SDM methods address some of these factors, they could be more directly and accurately modelled using a spatially-explicit approach. Software to fit models with spatial autocorrelation parameters in SDMs are now widely available, but whether such approaches for inferring SDMs aid predictions compared to other methodologies is unknown. Here, within a simulated environment using 1000 generated species' ranges, we compared the performance of two commonly used non-spatial SDM methods (Maximum Entropy Modelling, MAXENT and boosted regression trees, BRT), to a spatial Bayesian SDM method (fitted using R-INLA), when the underlying data exhibit varying combinations of clumping and geographic restriction. Finally, we tested how any recommended methodological settings designed to account for spatially non-random patterns in the data impact inference. Spatial Bayesian SDM method was the most consistently accurate method, being in the top 2 most accurate methods in 7 out of 8 data sampling scenarios. Within high-coverage sample datasets, all methods performed fairly similarly. When sampling points were randomly spread, BRT had a 1-3% greater accuracy over the other methods and when samples were clumped, the spatial Bayesian SDM method had a 4%-8% better AUC score. Alternatively, when sampling points were restricted to a small section of the true range all methods were on average 10-12% less accurate, with greater variation among the methods. Model inference under the recommended settings to account for autocorrelation was not impacted by clumping or restriction of data, except for the complexity of the spatial regression term in the spatial Bayesian model. Methods, such as those made available by R-INLA, can be successfully used to account for spatial autocorrelation in an SDM context and, by taking account of random effects, produce outputs that can better elucidate the role of covariates in predicting species occurrence. Given that it is often unclear what the drivers are behind data clumping in an empirical occurrence dataset, or indeed how geographically restricted these data are, spatially-explicit Bayesian SDMs may be the better choice when modelling the spatial distribution of target species
Monetary Policy in a World Without Money
No full textThis paper considers whether the development of electronic money' poses any threat to the ability of central banks to control the value of their national currencies through conventional monetary policy. It argues that even if the demand for base money for use in facilitating transactions is largely or even completely eliminated, monetary policy should continue to be effective. Macroeconomic stabilization depends only upon the ability of central banks to control a short-term nominal interest rate, and this would continue to be possible, in particular through the use of a channel' system for the implementation of policy, like those currently used in Canada, Australia and New Zealand.
Monetary Aggregates as Targets: Some Theoretical Aspects
No full textIn the mid-1970s the Bank of Canada, along with a number of other central banks, began to set explicit targets for monetary growth and to emphasize the long-run role of monetary aggregates in controlling the rapid upward trend of prices. There are three distinct ways of viewing and interpreting a policy of setting growth targets for monetary aggregates. The first is associated with the work of William Poole, the second is derived from the reduced-form model initially developed at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, and the third, which the author has labeled the feedback- rule approach, is related to the techniques developed within central banks to implement the policy of monetary targeting. In this paper the author sets forth the logic and examines the implications of these three methods when the principal aim of policy is reducing the rate of inflation. He also examines the question of gradualist versus "cold-shower" policies and the criteria for selecting a monetary aggregate as a policy target.
Impact of tariff reduction on exports: A quantitative assessment of Indian exports to US
No full textThis paper quantitatively assesses likely changes in market access opportunities for Indian exports owing to tariff reductions by the USA. The study identifies particular products for India at the ISIC 4-digit level of disaggregation, which could be considered tariff sensitive. Regression analysis of the relationship between MFN tariff rates and India's exports to the US was used to assess in quantitative terms the likely impact of tariff reduction that may be agreed in the Doha Round. This analysis suggests that tariff cuts are not expected to benefit India's exports to the US in a major way. With the full implementation of the Chairman's formula for tariff cuts, increase in India's exports to the US would amount to 1.2 or 0.6 depending on the value of the B coefficient in theChairman's formula. These findings are in all likelihood substantially due to the tariff diversion effect of NAFTA preferences in favour of suppliers in Mexico, which is a competing country in many traditional items. It is expected that reduction of MFN tariff would alleviate the trade diversion effect of the NAFTA.The study has also attempted to decompose changes in India's total exports due to tariff reductions in the US into the competitive and market effects. The analysis suggests that the increase in India's exports would be mainly due to the competitive effect. This leads the author to conclude that it is crucial for India to improve its competitiveness vis-a-vis its competitors in different markets.
Contact tracing is an imperfect tool for controlling COVID-19 transmission and relies on population adherence
No full textEmerging evidence suggests that contact tracing has had limited success in the UK in reducing the R number across the COVID-19 pandemic. We investigate potential pitfalls and areas for improvement by extending an existing branching process contact tracing model, adding diagnostic testing and refining parameter estimates. Our results demonstrate that reporting and adherence are the most important predictors of programme impact but tracing coverage and speed plus diagnostic sensitivity also play an important role. We conclude that well-implemented contact tracing could bring small but potentially important benefits to controlling and preventing outbreaks, providing up to a 15% reduction in R. We reaffirm that contact tracing is not currently appropriate as the sole control measure.</p
Author Correction: A multi-country test of brief reappraisal interventions on emotions during the COVID-19 pandemic
No full textCorrection to: Nature Human Behaviour https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01173-x, published online 2 August 2021.
In the version of this article initially published, the following authors were omitted from the author list and the Author contributions section for “investigation” and “writing and editing”: Nandor Hajdu (Institute of Psychology, ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary), Jordane Boudesseul (Facultad de Psicología, Instituto de Investigación Científica, Universidad de Lima, Lima, Perú), Rafał Muda (Faculty of Economics, Maria Curie-Sklodowska University, Lublin, Poland) and Sandersan Onie (Black Dog Institute, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, Australia & Emotional Health for All Foundation, Jakarta, Indonesia). In addition, Saeideh FatahModares’ name was originally misspelled as Saiedeh FatahModarres in the author list. Further, affiliations have been corrected for Maria Terskova (National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia), Susana Ruiz Fernandez (FOM University of Applied Sciences, Essen; Leibniz-Institut für Wissensmedien, Tübingen, and LEAD Research Network, Eberhard Karls University, Tübingen, Germany), Hendrik Godbersen (FOM University of Applied Sciences, Essen, Germany), Gulnaz Anjum (Department of Psychology, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, Canada, and Department of Economics & Social Sciences, Institute of Business Administration, Karachi, Pakistan). The changes have been made to the HTML and PDF versions of the article
Educação preventiva ao uso indevido de drogas no trabalho
No full textDissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Centro Tecnológico. Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia de Produção.O uso indevido de drogas nas Organizações apresenta-se como fator gerador de inquietação e desconfiança em todas as relações e níveis organizacionais. Pesquisas nacionais e internacionais indicam um vertiginoso incremento no consumo de drogas nesta última década em todos os espaços sociais e, conseqüentemente, na maioria das Organizações. Esforços no sentido de redução da oferta de drogas, apesar de intensos, não têm conseguido evitar esta escalada. Por outro lado, ações isoladas que visem à redução da demanda muito pouco têm contribuído para uma real minimização do consumo de drogas. A integração de ações visando a redução (da oferta, da demanda e de danos), além de uma 'modernização' no aparato policial e no 'Poder Judiciário', tem sido a maneira mais eficaz com que alguns países e agências internacionais têm enfrentado o problema com relativo sucesso. As Organizações, por sua vez, têm promovido inúmeras ações, objetivando não só a prevenção ao consumo de drogas (redução da demanda), como também um adequado encaminhamento de 'trabalhadores, já usuários/dependentes de drogas". Estes fatos motivaram a elaboração desta pesquisa que, em linhas gerais, pretende, a partir de uma Organização Militar de Saúde, apresentar a construção de um Programa de Educação Preventiva ao Uso lndevido de Drogas no Trabalho. Para tanto, utilizou-se de uma amostra constituída de 38 trabalhadores jovens, e os acompanhou durante um período de 12 meses, período no qual realizam o Serviço Militar Constitucional. Através de um processo sócio-interacionista a partir do construcionismo social, de Gergen e Bateson e na aprendizagem integrativa sugerida pela ciência da complexidade, e tomando como base os trabalhos do epistemiologista francês Edgar Morin, atividades em forma de oficinas foram desenvolvidas visando, a partir do resgate histórico, da convivência interativa, da valorização do ético e a sintonia com o estético, a ampliação da autonomia e do protagonismo para uma melhor qualidade de vida no trabalho e para esses trabalhadores. Através do método de simulação e resolução integrativa, nos quais o uso de drogas ou a violência estavam presentes, técnicas de resolução de conflitos, mediação e negociação pró - ativa dentre outras, foram praticadas com vistas à geração da aprendizagem solidária e da resolução participativa. Previa-se que após este aprendizado, os sujeitos da pesquisa poderiam tornar-se verdadeiramente pró - ativos, portanto, mais hábeis na resolução de problemas. Esperava-se a incorporação de estilos saudáveis de viver, preservando mais adequadamente, a própria vida e a saúde. Também, esperava-se o aprimoramento do senso -crítico, da autonomia, a aquisição de habilidades e competências individuais e coletivas na tomada de decisões e, dessa forma tomarem-se melhores pessoas e melhores cidadãos. A eficácia do Programa foi sistematicamente avaliada quer via questionários estruturados (avaliação pontual), avaliando conhecimento, atitudes, comportamentos e ações efetivas para o não uso de drogas e tomadas de decisão. Estes itens foram avaliados em três ocasiões específicas (na admissão, no 3º e no 12º mês). Outras técnicas de avaliação sistemáticas (forma circular), foram intensamente utilizadas nos encontros -Oficinas. Os resultados superaram valores preditivos de 25% iniciais e permitiu concluir que este programa preventivo, pode ser uma boa ferramenta ergonômíca capaz de prevenir o uso de drogas no trabalho e melhorar encaminhamentos, nos casos de trabalhadores já envolvidos com o uso/abuso de drogas, minimizando com isso, os inúmeros desgastes organizacionai
The diverse roles of inhibition in identified neural circuits
No full textInhibitory interneurons represent a diverse population of cell types in the central nervous system, whose general role is to suppress activity of target neurons. The timing of spikes in principal neurons has millisecond precision, and I asked what are the roles of inhibition in shaping the temporal codes that emerge from different parallel local neural circuits. First I investigated the local circuitry of melanopsin-containing ganglion cells in the mouse retina, which are intrinsically photosensitive and responsible for circadian photoentrainment. Using transsynaptic viral tracing, I identified three types of melanopsin-containing ganglion cell, and found that inhibitory (GABAergic) dopaminergic amacrine cells are presynaptic to one of these types. These results provided a direct circuitry link between the medium time scale process of light-dark adaptation, which involves dopamine, and the longer time scale of the circadian rhythm. Next I characterised a subpopulation of genetically-identified neurons in the mouse retina, in order to compare the precise timing of inhibition in different circuits at a high temporal resolution. I identified eight physiologically and morphologically distinct ganglion cell types and found that each circuit could be described by a 'motif' that represented the inhibitory-excitatory interactions that lead to cell-type-specific firing patterns. The cell would fire only when the change in excitation was faster than the change in inhibition. Therefore the role of inhibition is to detect 'irrelevance' in the visual scene, only allowing the ganglion cell to fire at specific time points relating to functions that are both parallel and complementary to the other cell types. Finally, I looked deeper within the neural circuitry of one of the genetically-identified cell types, to study the mechanism of 'fast inhibition' in detecting approaching objects. Through two-photon targeted paired recordings of postsynaptic ganglion cells and presynaptic amacrine cells, I found evidence that the AII amacrine cell - a well-characterised glycinergic inhibitory interneuron known to be involved in night vision circuits - conveys fast inhibitory information to the ganglion cell via an electrical synapse with an excitatory neuron of day vision circuitry only during non-approach motion. Therefore, it appears that the role of inhibition is to dynamically interact with direct excitatory neural pathways during 'irrelevant' stimulation, suppressing or completely blocking activity, resulting in precisely timed spikes that occur in the brief moments when excitation changes faster than inhibition
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