223 research outputs found
Single-process versus multiple-strategy models of decision making: Evidence from an information intrusion paradigm
No full textWhen decision makers are confronted with different problems and situations, do they use a uniform mechanism as assumed by single-process models (SPMs) or do they choose adaptively from a set of available decision strategies as multiple-strategy models (MSMs) imply? Both frameworks of decision making have gathered a lot of support, but only rarely have they been contrasted with each other. Employing an information intrusion paradigm for multi-attribute decisions from givens, SPM and MSM predictions on information search, decision outcomes, attention, and confidence judgments were derived and tested against each other in two experiments. The results consistently support the SPM view: Participants seemingly using a "take-the-best" (TTB) strategy do not ignore TTB-irrelevant information as MSMs would predict, but adapt the amount of information searched, choose alternative choice options, and show varying confidence judgments contingent on the quality of the "irrelevant" information. The uniformity of these findings underlines the adequacy of the novel information intrusion paradigm and comprehensively promotes the notion of a uniform decision making mechanism as assumed by single-process models. (C) 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved
Modeling Option and Strategy Choices with Connectionist Networks: Towards an Integrative Model of Automatic and Deliberate Decision Making
No full textWe claim that understanding human decisions requires that both automatic and deliberate processes be considered. First, we sketch the qualitative differences between two hypothetical processing systems, an automatic and a deliberate system. Second, we show the potential that connectionism offers for modeling processes of decision making and discuss some empirical evidence. Specifically, we posit that the integration of information and the application of a selection rule are governed by the automatic system. The deliberate system is assumed to be responsible for information search, inferences and the modification of the network that the automatic processes act on. Third, we critically evaluate the multiple-strategy approach to decision making. We introduce the basic assumption of an integrative approach stating that individuals apply an all-purpose rule for decisions but use different strategies for information search. Fourth, we develop a connectionist framework that explains the interaction between automatic and deliberate processes and is able to account for choices both at the option and at the strategy level.System 1, Intuition, Reasoning, Control, Routines, Connectionist Model, Parallel Constraint Satisfaction
Children's trust in informants in risky decisions
No full textWhen adapting to a risky world, decision makers must be capable of grasping the probabilistic nature of the environment. Developmental research on the ontogeny of the ability to use probabilities thus far has used different paradigms and revealed inconsistent findings. Merging two paradigms (choices based on probabilistic inferences; trust-in-informants decisions), we tested whether procedural differences are responsible for the inconsistent findings. 6-, 9-, and 22-year olds (N = 108) learned the relative accuracy of three informants in a labelling task commonly used in trust-in-informants research. Informants differed with regard to their validity (rates of being correct=0.17; 0.34; 0.83). Subsequently, participants were presented with an information board typically used in research on probabilistic-inference choices. Prior to choosing between two options, they were allowed to inspect informants’ predictions regarding choice outcomes. After choices, participants indicated which informant they would trust in other domains (e.g., biology, arts). A large contrast effect between trust decisions and choices indicates that the
utilization of probabilities develops more slowly in probabilistic-inference choices than in trust decisions: 6-year-olds and a portion of 9-year-olds did not rely on the predictions of the high validity informant in their choices even though they trusted the informant in other domains. In adults, that pattern was reversed. We discuss our findings while considering the possibility that structural differences of the paradigms may impose different constraints on cognitive processing
Do People Make Decisions Under Risk Based on Ignorance? An Empirical Test of the Priority Heuristic against Cumulative Prospect Theory
No full textBrandstätter, Gigerenzer and Hertwig (2006) put forward the priority heuristic (PH) as a fast and frugal heuristic for decisions under risk. According to the PH, individuals do not make trade-offs between gains and probabilities, as proposed by expected utility models such as cumulative prospect theory (CPT), but use information in a non-compensatory manner and ignore information. We conducted three studies to test the PH empirically by analyzing individual choice patterns, decision times and information search parameters in diagnostic decision tasks. Results on all three dependent variables conflict with the predictions of the PH and can be better explained by the CPT. The predictive accuracy of the PH was high for decision tasks in which the predic-tions align with the predictions of the CPT but very low for decision tasks in which this was not the case. The findings indicate that earlier results supporting the PH might have been caused by the selection of decision tasks that were not diagnostic for the PH as compared to CPT.Decision Strategy, Fast and Frugal Heuristics, Bounded Rationality, Decision Latency, Process Tracing, Cumulative Prospect Theory
Coherence Shifts in Probabilistic Inference Tasks
No full textThe fast-and-frugal heuristics approach to probabilistic inference assumes that individuals often employ simple heuristics to integrate cue information that commonly function in a non-reciprocal fashion. Specifically, the subjective validity of a certain cue remains stable during the application of a heuristic and is not changed by the presence or absence of another cue. The parallel-constraint-satisfaction model, in contrast, predicts that information is processed in a reciprocal fashion. Specifically, it assumes that subjective cue validities interactively af-fect each other and are modified to coherently support the favored choice. Corresponding to the model’s simulation, we predicted the direction of such coherence shifts.Cue validities were measured before, after (Exp. 1) and during judgment (Exp. 2 & 3). Coherence shifts were found in environments involving real-world cue knowledge (weather forecasts) and in a domain for which the application of fast-and-frugal heuristics has been demonstrated (city-size tasks). The results indicate that subjective cue validities are not fixed parameters, but that they are interactively changed to form coherent representations of the task.Judgment, Connectionism, Parallel Constraint Satisfaction, Fast-and-Frugal Heuristics, Adaptive Decision Making, Bounded Rationality
Institutions for Intuitive Man
No full textBy its critics, the rational choice model is routinely accused of being unrealistic. One key objection has it that, for all nontrivial problems, calculating the best response is cognitively way too taxing, given the severe cognitive limitations of the human mind. If one confines the analysis to consciously controlled decision-making, this criticism is certainly warranted. But it ignores a second mental apparatus. Unlike conscious deliberation, this apparatus does not work serially but in parallel. It handles huge amounts of information in almost no time. It only is not consciously accessible. Only the end result is propelled back to consciousness as an intuition. It is too early to decide whether the rational choice model is ultimately even descriptively correct. But at any rate institutional analysts and institutional designers are well advised to take this powerful mechanisms seriously. In appropriate contexts, institutions should see to it that decision-makers trust their intuitions. This frequently creates a dilemma. For better performance is often not the only goal pursued by institutional intervention. Accountability, predictability and regulability are also desired. Sometimes, clever interventions are able to get them both. Arguably, the obligation to write an explicit set of reasons for a court decision is a case in point. The judge is not obliged to report the mental processes by which she has taken her decision. Justification is only ex post control. Intuitive decision-making is even more desirable if the underlying social problem is excessively complex (NP hard, to be specific), or ill-defined. Sometimes, it is enough for society to give room for intuitive decision-making. For instance, in simple social dilemmas, a combination of cheater detection and punishing sentiments does the trick. However, intuition can be misled. For instance, punishing sentiments are triggered by a hurt sense of fairness. Now in more complex social dilemmas, there are competing fairness norms, and people intuitively choose with a self-serving bias. In such contexts, institutions must step in so that clashing intuitions do not lead to social unrest.intuition, consciousness, rational choice, heuristics, ill-defined social problems, institutions
The pursuit of consistency during decision making - An analysis of influencing factors
No full textDas Ziel der vorliegenden Arbeit bestand darin, das Verständnis des Konsistenzmaximierungsprozesses in probabilistischen Inferenzentscheidungen durch die gezielte Untersuchung potentieller Einflussfaktoren zu vertiefen. Das Streben nach Konsistenz und seine Untersuchung wurden im theoretischen Teil der Arbeit zunächst allgemein betrachtet. Hierbei wurde die historische Entwicklung von der Gestaltpsychologie zu den Parallel Constraint Satisfaction (PCS)-Ansätzen aufgezeigt. Daraufhin wurde das Thema Konsistenz spezifisch für den Kontext der Entscheidungspsychologie, auf den in dieser Arbeit fokussiert wurde, betrachtet. Es wurden Theorien und Modelle vorgestellt, in denen der Aspekt der Erhöhung von Konsistenz zentral ist. Besondere Aufmerksamkeit wurde dem PCS-Modell für probabilistische Inferenzentscheidungen von Glöckner und Betsch (2008b) gewidmet, in dem der Prozess der Konsistenzmaximierung den Kernmechanismus eines jeden Entscheidungsprozesses darstellt. Anschließend wurden Befunde empirischer Arbeiten, in denen die Maximierung von Konsistenz als systematische Reevaluation von Informationen im Entscheidungsprozess erfasst wurde, vorgestellt. Anhand dieser Befunde wurde dargelegt, dass die Erhöhung von Konsistenz als wichtiger Bestandteil des Informationsverarbeitungs-prozesses verstanden werden kann und die Suche nach Faktoren, die einen Einfluss auf die Stärke prädezisionaler Informationsumwertungen haben, erforderlich ist. Im Anschluss an diese theoretischen Ausführungen wurde zum empirischen Teil der Arbeit übergeleitet: Auf Basis des PCS-Modells für probabilistische Inferenzentscheidungen wurden Charakteristika der Situation und der Person, die einen Einfluss auf die Stärke der prädezisionalen Umwertung von Cue-Validitäten haben können, untersucht. Hierfür wurden insgesamt sieben Experimente und drei Simulationsstudien durchgeführt. Im ersten Experiment konnte unter Verwendung eines Solomon-Viergruppenplans der wichtige Nachweis erbracht werden, dass prädezisionale Reevaluationen in probabilistischen Inferenzentscheidungen auf die Reflexion über eine Entscheidungsaufgabe zurückgeführt werden können. Im folgenden zweiten Experiment wurde untersucht, ob systematische Reevaluationen von Cue-Validitäten auch bei einer ausgeglichenen Informationslage auftreten und welchen Einfluss die wiederholte Darbietung einer Entscheidungsaufgabe hat. Das erwartungskonträre Ergebnis, dass keine Umwertungen bei einer ausgeglichenen Informationslage aufgetreten sind, gab Anlass zu einer systematischen Untersuchung des Einflusses der Informationslage. In den Experimenten 3 und 4 konnte übereinstimmend gefunden werden, dass systematische Reevaluationen lediglich bei einer unausgeglichenen Informationslage auftreten. Neben dem Einfluss der Informationslage wurden auch personale Faktoren hinsichtlich ihres Einflusses auf die Stärke prädezisionaler Informationsumwertungen untersucht. In den Experimenten 4 und 5 wurden verschiedene personale Faktoren berücksichtigt. Allerdings fand sich für keinen der Faktoren ein überzeugender Zusammenhang. Drei Simulationsstudien sollten zur Klärung der Frage, wie gut das PCS-Modell die empirischen Ergebnisse vorhersagen kann, beitragen. Hierfür wurden Simulationen auf individueller Ebene durchgeführt. Ein wichtiger Befund war, dass bei ausgeglichenen im Gegensatz zu unausgeglichenen Informationslagen die Simulationsergebnisse keinen signifikanten Beitrag zur Vorhersage der Posttest-Validitäten machten, wenn für den Einfluss der Pretest-Validitäten kontrolliert wurde. In zwei weiteren Experimenten wurde erneut der Einfluss der Wiederholung untersucht. Während eine reine Wiederholung einer identisch konzipierten Entscheidungssituation in einer überwiegenden Abwertung von Cues resultierte, führte der Erhalt einer zusätzlichen entscheidenden Information eher zu einer systematischen Umwertung von Cues. Zusammenfassend war festzuhalten, dass die Annahme bidirektionaler Prozesse in der Entscheidungsfindung gestützt werden konnte. Allerdings waren weder die größtenteils moderate Evidenz für systematische Umwertungen noch das Ausbleiben selbiger bei ausgeglichenen Informationslagen nach dem PCS-Modell zu erwarten gewesen. Vor dem Hintergrund bereits bestehender sowie in dieser Arbeit erzielter Befunde wurde die Vermutung aufgestellt, dass es gewisser Mindestvoraussetzungen für das erfolgreiche Wirken des Konsistenzmaximierungsprozesses bedarf.The aim of this thesis was to gain a deeper understanding of the consistency maximizing process in probabilistic inference tasks by analyzing potential influencing factors. Concerning the theoretical background the striving for consistency and its analysis were first considered in general. The development from Gestalt Psychology to parallel constraint satisfaction (pcs) models was demonstrated. After that the question of consistency was considered specifically for the domain of decision making on which a focus was put in this thesis. Theories and models were presented in which the increase of consistency is central. Special attention was paid to the pcs model of Glöckner and Betsch (2008b) in which the process of consistency maximizing is regarded as the core mechanism of decision making. Subsequently results of empirical studies in which the maximization of consistency was measured as a systematic reevaluation of information during decision making were presented. On the basis of these results it was argued that the increase of consistency can be regarded as a central part of information processing and that the search for factors which could influence the strength of the predecisional reevaluation is necessary. Following the theoretical considerations the empirical studies were presented: On the basis of the pcs model for probabilistic inferences characteristics of the situation and of the person which might influence the strength of predecisional reevaluation of cue validities were analysed. Seven experiments and three simulation studies were therefore conducted. Using a Solomon four group design it was shown in the first experiment that predecisional information distortion is due to the reflection on a decision task. In the following second experiment it was analysed if the systematic reevaluation of cue validities also occurs using a balanced information pattern and which influence the repetition of a decision task has. The unexpected result that no reevaluation occured using a balanced information pattern gave reason to a systematic analysis of the influence of the information pattern. In experiments 3 and 4 it was shown that systematic reevaluation only occurs using an unbalanced information pattern. Besides the influence of the information pattern also personal factors were examined concerning their influence on the strength of predecision information distortion. In experiments 3 and 4 several personal factors were considered but for none a convincing relation was found. Three simulation studies were conducted to clarify whether the pcs model can predict the empirical results. Therefore simulation studies on an individual level were conducted. An important result was that with balanced in contrast to unbalanced information patterns the simulation results contribute to the prediction of the posttest validities when controlling for the influence of pretest validities. In two further experiments the influence of repetition was again examined. While the mere repetition of an identically designed decision task resulted in a predominant devaluation of cues, the receipt of a further important information lead to a more systematic reevaluation of cues. In summary, the assumption of bidirectional processing in decision making was supported. However, neither the mostly weak evidence for systematic reevaluation nor their absence in balanced information patterns was expected according to the pcs model. Against the background of existing and of the results achieved in the presented studies it was argued that some minimum conditions are necessary for the consistency maximizing process to be successful
1. Vorlesung (01.04.2017) Sozialpsychologie
No full text- Grundlegende Theorien und Forschungen zursozialen Kognition, z.B. Einstellungen, Stereotypen, Attribution, Selbstkonzept; - Grundlegende Theorien und Forschungen zur sozialen Interaktion, z.B. Gruppeneinfluss, soziale Diskriminierung, soziale Motive (Altruismus, Aggression, Affiliation); - Klassische und aktuelle Forschungsarbeiten zum Wirkzusammenhang zwischen sozialem Kontext und Lern-/Lehrprozessen, wie z.B. Leistung im sozialen Kontext, Medieneinfluss auf das Lernen, Persuasionstechniken, Führungsstil, Entwicklung sozialer Umwelten in betrieblichen Kontexten. Qualifikationsziele: Neben grundlegenden Fähigkeiten, Theorien/Forschungsinhalte zu verstehen und diese methodisch zu reflektieren, sollen die Studierenden einen Überblick wie punktuell vertiefte Kenntnisse über Theorien, Forschungsverfahren und empirische Befunde der Sozialpsychologie gewinnen
Personality in Economic Decision Making - An Interdisciplinary Approach
No full textErgebnisse experimenteller Studien widersprechen häufig den Vorhersagen ökonomischer Standardtheorie. Anstelle sich uneingeschränkt rational im Sinne eines homo oeconomicus zu verhalten und sich ausschließlich an der Maximierung des eigenen Nutzens zu orientieren, zeigen sich Personen anderen gegenüber kooperativ und teilen. Diese Befunde gelten selbst dann, wenn die Interaktionen anonym verlaufen und die Begegnungen einmalig sind, so dass eine Bildung von Reputationseffekten nicht möglich ist (für eine ausführliche Zusammenfassung (siehe Fehr & Schmidt, 2006).
Vertreter der verhaltensorientierten Wirtschaftsforschung erweitern aus diesem Grund die Annahme strikter Rationalität und berücksichtigen den Einfluss psychologischer Faktoren wie z.B. sozialer Präferenzen und Reziprozität. Obwohl die Analyse von Entscheidungsverhalten sowohl Gegenstand ökonomischer als auch psychologischer Forschung ist, ist die Kooperation zwischen diesen beiden Disziplinen überraschend gering. Die psychologische Forschung akkumulierte innerhalb der vergangenen Dekaden ein umfassendes Wissen über die Messung von Persönlichkeitsunterschieden und über deren Einfluss auf Verhalten. Dennoch findet dieses Wissen bis zum heutigen Zeitpunkt sehr wenig Verwendung in ökonomischen Studien.
Die vorliegende Dissertationsschrift hilft, dieses Loch in der vorhandenen Literatur zu füllen. In einem bislang neuen interdisziplinären Ansatz wird die Expertise psychologischer und ökonomischer Wissenschaftler vereint. Kapitel 1 und Kapitel 2 zeigen, dass die Berücksichtigung von individuellen Persönlichkeitsunterschieden zum Verständnis von in ökonomischen Kontexten getroffenen Entscheidungen beitragen kann. Kapitel 3 bietet experimentelle Evidenz für die Notwendigkeit, psychologische Faktoren wie z.B. unterschiedliche Entscheidungsstile bereits während des Entscheidungsprozesses zu beachten. Kapitel 4 beschäftigt sich mit der Frage, wie Personen motiviert werden können, sich in einer sozialen Dilemmata Situation kooperativ zu verhalten.
Insgesamt erweist sich die Kombination von ökonomischen und psychologischen Methoden als vielversprechend, um Entscheidungsverhalten zu untersuchen. Die Berücksichtigung individueller Unterschiede und zugrunde liegender intrapsychischer Prozesse kann helfen zu erklären, weshalb sich Personen nicht als klassische homines oeconomici verhalten und bietet Ansätze, wie individuell und kollektiv getroffene Entscheidungen verbessert werden können.Experimental findings on economic decision making are often at odds with predictions made by standard economic theory. Instead of behaving rationally in terms of the homo oeconomicus and being exclusively concerned with the maximization of own payoff, e.g., people give away substantial amounts of money to unknown others, even if interactions are anonymous and only once (for a comprehensive overview see Fehr & Schmidt, 2006).
Behavioral economists therefore relax the assumption of rationality and acknowledge the impact of psychological factors such as social preferences and reciprocity on decision making. Although decision making processes are intensely studied both by economic and psychological researchers, the collaboration between the two disciplines is surprisingly scarce. During the past decades psychologists acquired profound knowledge on the assessment of personality differences and on the influence of these differences on behavior. However, this knowledge is hardly applied to economic studies yet.
The present thesis helps filling this gap in the existing literature. Following a hitherto new interdisciplinary approach, economists’ and psychologists’ expertise is combined. Chapter 1 and Chapter 2 show that the consideration of individual predispositions in personality can contribute to understand how economic decisions are made. Chapter 3 provides evidence for the importance of paying attention to psychological variables such as the applied decision style during the process of decision making. Chapter 4 is concerned with the question how to motivate people to cooperate in a social dilemma situation.
Overall, the combination of economic and psychological research methods seems to be a promising way to study decision making. The consideration of individual differences and underlying intra-psychic processes can help explaining why people do not behave as homines oeconomici and provides hints for the improvement of individually and collectively made decisions
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