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Improving forecasting on the example of Streetbrand OÜ
No full textNõudluse prognoosimise eesmärk on kogemuslikult või arvutusmeetodite abil kindlaks teha tulevase perioodi jooksul toodete müügimahu või teenuste tarbimise tase, arvestades nõudlust mõjutavate tegurite ulatust ja kestust. See protsess hõlmab eelnevate müügiperioodide andmete kasutamist, samuti turgu mõjutavate tegurite tundmist ja mõistmist.
Käesoleva lõputöö eesmärgiks oli ettevõtte prognoosimismeetodi sidumine kategooria juhtimisega ning pakkuda välja parandusvõimalused järgnevateks hooaegadeks.
Eesmärgi saavutamiseks kasutas autor kvalitatiivset uurimismeetodit, kaasates kvantitatiivset meetodit. Rakendades nelja erinevat prognoosimismeetodit, leidis autor ettevõttele kõige sobilikuma ning pakkus välja järgnevateks hooaegadeks parendusettepanekuid. Töös kasutati ettevõtte andmebaasidest saadud kategooriate müüke alates september 2021 - november 2023.
Uurimistöö autor leidis töö alguses püstitatud ülesannetele vastused. Viis püsitatud uurimisülesannet olid järgnevad:
• Selgitada nõudluse prognoosimise meetodite olemust;
• Selgitada kategoriseerimise ja varude juhtimise olemust ning nende tähtsust jaekaubanduses;
• Kaardistada ettevõte olemasolevad kategooriad;
• Leida ettevõte kõige olulisem kategooria, rakendada erinevaid prognoosimise meetodeid ning leida kõige sobilikum;
• Analüüsida saadud vastuseid ning tuua välja soovitused prognoosimismeetodi parandamiseks.
Teoreetilises osas selgitas autor ära nõudluse prognoosimise olemuse ja sellega seonduva, mis on üldse kategoriseerimine ja varude juhtimine kategooriate taga lisaks nende mõlema tähtsus jaekaubanduses. Autor tõi välja, milline on kategoriseerimise protsess ettevõttes hetkel, millised kategooriad on praegu olemas ja kuidas need jagunevad ning viis läbi analüüsi, kus leidis 2022 aasta suurima kategooria ja alamkategooria, millel rakendas valituid prognoosimis meetodeid ning leidis, milline sobiks ettevõttele. Antud kategooriale rakendati nelja prognoosimis meetodit, et leida sobilik meetod ettevõttele.
Jaekaubanduses on kasutusel mitmed erinevaid meetodeid nõudluse prognoosimiseks. Autor võttis töös kasutusele neli enim kasutatavat meetodit, milleks on:
• naiivne meetod,
• libisev keskmine,
• kaalutud libisev keskmine,
• eksponentsiaalne silumine.
Rakendades neid meetodeid sai autor kinnitust, et ettevõttes hetkel kasutuses olev meetod sobib, kuna see on sarnane lihtsa keskmise meetodiga, mis arvutuste käigus, kõige väiksema prognoosiveaga välja tuli. Antud meetod sobib ideaalselt kategooria põhitoodetele kuna nendele toodetele on olemas pidev nõudlus ja need tooted on liikuv kaup. Samal ajal tuleks arvesse võtta hooajalisi tooteid ning seisvat kaupa, mille puhul peaks ettevõtte tulevikus kasutama nõudluse prognoosimiseks kombineeritud prognoosimismeetodit, mille käigus on võimalik muuta ettetellimine efektiivsemaks.
Elame hetkel pidevalt muutuvas nõudluse keskkonnas ja inimeste tarbimist mõjutavaid tegureid on mitmeid, alustades väljas valitsevast ilmast kuni riigi ja majandusliku olukorrani, seda kõik tuleb arvesse võtta prognooside koostamisel. Selleks, et ettevõtte saaks tulevikus muuta prognoosimisprotsessi efektiivsemaks muuta, tõi autor välja enda poolsed parendusettepanekud, mille rakendamisel on see kõik võimalik.
Autori poolt on välja toodud ka mõned mõtted ja ettepanekud kuidas, olla kursis hetkel valdkonnas toimuvaga ning teha pidevaid turu-uuringuid aktuaalsete trendide kohta. Muuta ettetellimisprotsess mitmekülgsemaks, kaasates sinna välistegureid ning erinevaid oma ala spetsialiste, et oleks mitmeid arvamusi. Arvestada hooajaliste toodetega ning uute toodete tellimisel neile kampaania loomisega, et tooted jõuaksid võimalikult paljude klientideni. Tulevikus ettetellimise efektiivsuse tõstmiseks on võimalus erinevatele kategooriatele sobiva prognoosimeetodi leidmine ja rakendamine – selle kaudu on võimalik muuta ettetellimise töö korraldus paremaks ning tekib võimalus rahaliste vahendite kokkuhoiuks.
Lõputöö täitis enda eesmärki, andes ülevaate milline on kategoriseerimine ettevõttes, kaardistades olemasolevad kategooriad ning leides ettevõtetele sobilik prognoosimismeetod.The purpose of thesis Improving forecasting on the example of Streetbrand OÜ is to integrate the company's forecasting method with category management and propose improvement opportunities for the upcoming seasons.
To achieve this goal, the author employed a qualitative research method, complemented by a quantitative method. By applying four different forecasting methods, the author identified the most suitable one for the company and proposed improvement suggestions for the upcoming seasons. The study utilized sales data from the company's databases spanning from September 2021 to November 2023 for various categories.
The author of this research found answers to the five research questions posed at the beginning of the study. These five research questions were as follows:
● To explain the nature of demand forecasting methods;
● To explain the nature of categorization and inventory management and their importance in retail;
● To map the existing categories within the company;
● To identify the most crucial category for the company, apply various forecasting methods, and find the most suitable one;
● To analyse the obtained results and provide recommendations for improving the forecasting method.
In the theoretical section the author explained the essence of demand forecasting and its related aspects, including categorization and inventory management behind categories, in addition to their significance in retail. The author elucidated the current categorization process within the company, outlined the existing categories, their distribution, and conducted an analysis to identify the largest category and subcategory in 2022. The author applied selected forecasting methods to these categories and determined the most suitable one for the company. Four forecasting methods were employed for this category to find the appropriate method tailored to the company's needs.
In retail, various methods are employed for demand forecasting. The author utilized four of the most commonly used methods in the study:
● naive method,
● moving average,
● weighted moving average,
● exponential smoothing.
By applying these methods, the author confirmed that the current method used in the company is suitable, as it resembles the simple average method, which yielded the smallest forecast error during calculations. This method is ideal for the main category products as they have consistent demand and are fast-moving consumer goods. Simultaneously, seasonal products and stagnant inventory should be considered. For these, the company should consider using a combined forecasting method in the future, enabling more efficient order placement by incorporating different demand patterns.
We currently live in a constantly changing demand environment, and there are many factors that affect people's consumption, ranging from prevailing weather conditions to the country's economic situation, all must be considered when making forecasts. To enhance the efficiency of the forecasting process in the future, the author proposed improvement suggestions aimed at enabling the company to adapt to these dynamics effectively.
The author also presented thoughts and suggestions on how to stay updated with current developments in the field by conducting continuous market research on prevailing trends. The author recommended diversifying the ordering process by involving external factors and various industry specialists to gather multiple opinions. It was suggested to consider seasonal products and creation of marketing campaigns for new product orders to reach as many customers as possible.
The thesis fulfilled its objective by providing an overview of categorization within the company, mapping out existing categories, and identifying a suitable forecasting method for the company's needs
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Get PDFThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
Get PDF“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Get PDFWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts
Get PDFWe conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued
use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation
counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more
sophisticated methods
koamabayili/VECTRON-author-checklist: VECTRON author checklist
No full textWe have done our best to complete the author checklist relating to the use of animals in the hut study. Note that the objective for the hut study was to evaluate the IRS treatment applications for residual efficacy against Anopheles mosquitoes, including the local An. coluzzii mosquito population. Cows were only used to attract mosquitoes into the huts and no tests were carried out directly on the cows. The author checklist is intended for use with studies where experiments are carried out on animals, which is why we have had such difficulty in completing this for the hut study, as many of the questions do not relate to how the cows were used
Author-wise bibliometric analysis based on entropy.
No full textAuthor-wise bibliometric analysis based on entropy.</p
Author Under Sail The Imagination of Jack London, 1893-1902
No full textIn Author Under Sail, Jay Williams offers the first complete literary biography of Jack London as a professional writer engaged in the labor of writing. It examines the authorial imagination in London's work, the use of imagination in both his fiction and nonfiction, and the ways he defined imagination in the creative process in his business dealings with his publishers, editors, and agents. In this first volume of a two-volume biography, Williams traverses the years 1893 to 1902, from London's "Story of a Typhoon" to The People of the Abyss. The Jack London who emerges in the pages of Author Under Sail is a writer whose partnership with publishers, most notably his productive alliance with George Brett of Macmillan, was one of the most formative in American literary history. London pioneered many author models during the heyday of realism and naturalism, blurring the boundaries of these popular genres by focusing on absorption and theatricality and the representation of the seen and unseen. London created an impassioned, sincere, and extremely personal realism unlike that of other American writers of the time. Author Under Sail is a literary tour de force that reveals the full range of London as writer, creative citizen, and entrepreneur at the same time it sheds light on the maverick side of machine-age literature.Intro -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Dedication -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Introduction -- 1. Spirit Truth -- 2. From Absorption to Theatricality and Back Again -- 3. "I Will Build a New Present" -- 4. Sons as Authors -- 5. Fathers as Publishers -- 6. The Daughter as Author -- 7. Lovers as Authors -- 8. At Sea with the Family -- 9. Yellow News, Yellow Stories -- 10. The Return Home -- Notes -- Bibliography -- Index -- About Jay WilliamsIn Author Under Sail, Jay Williams offers the first complete literary biography of Jack London as a professional writer engaged in the labor of writing. It examines the authorial imagination in London's work, the use of imagination in both his fiction and nonfiction, and the ways he defined imagination in the creative process in his business dealings with his publishers, editors, and agents. In this first volume of a two-volume biography, Williams traverses the years 1893 to 1902, from London's "Story of a Typhoon" to The People of the Abyss. The Jack London who emerges in the pages of Author Under Sail is a writer whose partnership with publishers, most notably his productive alliance with George Brett of Macmillan, was one of the most formative in American literary history. London pioneered many author models during the heyday of realism and naturalism, blurring the boundaries of these popular genres by focusing on absorption and theatricality and the representation of the seen and unseen. London created an impassioned, sincere, and extremely personal realism unlike that of other American writers of the time. Author Under Sail is a literary tour de force that reveals the full range of London as writer, creative citizen, and entrepreneur at the same time it sheds light on the maverick side of machine-age literature.Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources.Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, YYYY. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries
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