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The low-carbon steel industry - Interactions between the hydrogen direct reduction of steel and the electricity system [Elektronisk resurs]
No full textThe European steel industry must achieve deep reductions in CO2 emissions to meet the targets set out in the Paris Agreement. Options for reducing CO2 emissions include electrification, carbon capture and storage (CCS) and the use of biomass. The rapid decline in the cost of renewable electricity makes expanded electrification an attractive option for eliminating the dependence of the steel industry on coal. This work investigates how electrification of the steel industry via the use of a hydrogen direct reduction steel-making process can interact with the electricity system towards achieving zero CO2 emissions from both the steel industry and electricity sector. In this work, the concept of techno-economic pathways is used to investigate the potential implementation of CO2 abatement measures over time towards zero-emissions steel production in Sweden. Two different techno-economic optimisation models are used. The first model is used to investigate the impacts of electricity price variations on investments and the operation of steel production. The second model is applied to study the interaction between an electrified steel industry and the future electricity system of northern Europe. The results show that in Sweden, it will be feasible to reach close-to-zero CO2 emissions from steel production by Year 2045 with electrification via a hydrogen direct reduction process. We also show that increased production of hot briquetted iron (HBI) pellets could lead to the decarbonisation of the steel industry outside Sweden, assuming that the exported HBI will be converted via electric arc furnace (EAF) and that the receiving country has a decarbonised electricity generation system. The results also indicate that the cost-optimal design of the steel-making process is strongly dependent upon the electricity system composition. It is found to be cost-efficient to invest in overcapacity in steel production units (electrolyser, direct reduction shaft (DR shaft) furnace and EAF) and in storage units for hydrogen and HBI, to allow operation of the steel production capacity to follow the variations in electricity price. The modelling shows that an electrified steel industry could increase the electricity demand of northern Europe by 11% (by 183 TWh), and that the spatial allocation of the electrified steel production capacity could differ from the current allocation of steel plants. It is found that certain factors, such as the availability of low-cost electricity generation and access to iron ore, significantly influence the allocation of electrified steel plants. The modelling results show that the additional electricity demand from an electrified steel industry is met mainly by increasing outputs from wind and solar power, whereas natural gas-based electricity production is reduced, as compared to an electricity system in Year 2050 without an electrified steel industr
Electrification of the basic materials industry – Implications for the electricity system
Get PDFThe European energy-intensive basic materials industry must achieve deep reductions in CO2 emissions to meet the targets set out in the Paris Agreement. The rapid decline in the cost of renewable electricity makes expanded electrification an attractive option for eliminating the dependence of the industry on fossil fuels. This work applies techno-economic optimisation modelling to investigate how electrification of the basic material intensive industry in EU can interact with the electricity system. In particular, this work examines the ability of basic material industry to take advantage of flexibility options in the production processes to avoid high-cost electricity and facilitate the integration of wind and solar power. The thesis considers flexibility options which can meet an uneven distribution of electricity in time and space, including options to invest in overcapacity in electrolysers for hydrogen production and storage (flexibility in time) and the ability to export commodities (flexibility in location) for the industries included (ammonia, cement, plastics, and steel). For the electrified process of plastics production, flexibility in terms of CO2 utilisation is used to describe the ability of industrial units to vary their CO2 utilisation modes, i.e., through carbon capture and utilisation and carbon capture and storage.The modelling results show that an energy-intensive basic materials industry that has flexibility in relation to time, location, and CO2 utilisation provides lower production costs compared to a non-flexible industry. This is despite the lower capacity utilisation rate (60%) of the electrolysers used for hydrogen production, i.e., it is cost-efficient with investment in over-capacity in electrolysers. The modelling results also show that availability of low-cost electricity generation is the main determining parameter for geographical location of new industries with high operational flexibility and high hydrogen intensity (in this work presented by ammonia industry). With present-day locations of the industry, a hydrogen pipelines network allows for moving the electrolyser capacity from industry-intensive regions to regions with access to low-cost electricity which reduces hydrogen production costs by 3%. With the modelled optimal geographical location of new industries, hydrogen production is in the same region as the hydrogen-consuming units and, thus, a hydrogen pipeline has no significant impact on the hydrogen production cost.It was found that the electrification of the energy-intensive basic materials industry in the EU increases the electricity demand by around 44% (by 1,200 TWh). The future EU electricity demand with the present-day locations of the industrial plants is primarily met by solar, wind and nuclear power. If changes in annual production volumes and relocation of industries are allowed, more commodities are produced in regions that have both existing industries and access to low-cost electricity, thereby increasing the levels of electricity generation from wind and solar power. All the modelled scenarios require a substantial and rapid increases in renewable electricity capacity
Long-term load forecasting in high resolution for all countries globally
Get PDFElectricity demand modelling is the central and integral issue for the planning and operation of electric utilities, energy suppliers, system operators and other market participants. Load forecasting provides important information for electricity network planning, and it is essential for the electricity system development. The increase of interest in these issues has occurred as a result of liberalization of power markets, the aging infrastructure and high penetration rate of renewables.
In this research, a methodology is proposed for modelling and forecasting electricity demand. The major advantage of the proposed approach is that it enables the possibility of making short-and long-term hourly load forecasting within a single framework for all countries. The method is constructed and verified using 56-real load data of diverse countries. The accuracy of proposed model function is represented in terms of R-squared error.
The model estimates the amplitude of demand fluctuations for certain significant frequencies and generates the total hourly demand curve for a given year, based on a superposition of sine functions. The initial step was to construct the database including socio-economic and meteorological data for all countries. The world socio-economic scenario is projected from historical values using logistic growth functions. Based on this socio-economic scenario, the annual total demand and peak demand were obtained for all countries, for a period from 2017 to 2100. Finally, the sum of various sine functions can be used to calibrate and forecast hourly electricity demand for any country with available input data for any year in the addressed period.
A key result found is that specific economic, technical and climate characteristics, such as high shares of marginal cost generation, air conditioning, impact of tourism and industrial consumption, local temperature and seasonal effects have significant influence on the quality of results. The obtained results could have a significant impact and support in energy transition studies towards sustainability
The low-carbon steel industry - Interactions between the hydrogen direct reduction of steel and the electricity system
Get PDFThe European steel industry must achieve deep reductions in CO2 emissions to meet the targets set out in the Paris Agreement. Options for reducing CO2 emissions include electrification, carbon capture and storage (CCS) and the use of biomass. The rapid decline in the cost of renewable electricity makes expanded electrification an attractive option for eliminating the dependence of the steel industry on coal. This work investigates how electrification of the steel industry via the use of a hydrogen direct reduction steel-making process can interact with the electricity system towards achieving zero CO2 emissions from both the steel industry and electricity sector.In this work, the concept of techno-economic pathways is used to investigate the potential implementation of CO2 abatement measures over time towards zero-emissions steel production in Sweden. Two different techno-economic optimisation models are used. The first model is used to investigate the impacts of electricity price variations on investments and the operation of steel production. The second model is applied to study the interaction between an electrified steel industry and the future electricity system of northern Europe. The results show that in Sweden, it will be feasible to reach close-to-zero CO2 emissions from steel production by Year 2045 with electrification via a hydrogen direct reduction process. We also show that increased production of hot briquetted iron (HBI) pellets could lead to the decarbonisation of the steel industry outside Sweden, assuming that the exported HBI will be converted via electric arc furnace (EAF) and that the receiving country has a decarbonised electricity generation system.The results also indicate that the cost-optimal design of the steel-making process is strongly dependent upon the electricity system composition. It is found to be cost-efficient to invest in overcapacity in steel production units (electrolyser, direct reduction shaft (DR shaft) furnace and EAF) and in storage units for hydrogen and HBI, to allow operation of the steel production capacity to follow the variations in electricity price.The modelling shows that an electrified steel industry could increase the electricity demand of northern Europe by 11% (by 183 TWh), and that the spatial allocation of the electrified steel production capacity could differ from the current allocation of steel plants. It is found that certain factors, such as the availability of low-cost electricity generation and access to iron ore, significantly influence the allocation of electrified steel plants. The modelling results show that the additional electricity demand from an electrified steel industry is met mainly by increasing outputs from wind and solar power, whereas natural gas-based electricity production is reduced, as compared to an electricity system in Year 2050 without an electrified steel industr
Mapping the transition of the EU steel industry to carbon neutrality
Get PDFThis factsheet provides an overview of sectoral emission sources, emissions breakdowns, decarbonisation trajectories, and estimated technology-specific CO₂ abatement costs. It further examines the evolution of decarbonisation technology maturity (from research and innovation to demonstration and deployment) in the timeline from 2025 to 2050 and evaluates the extent to which this evolution aligns with relevant policy targets and objectives.JRC.C.7 - Energy Transition Insights for Polic
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Get PDFThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
Get PDF“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Get PDFWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts
Get PDFWe conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued
use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation
counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more
sophisticated methods
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