10 research outputs found
The Potential Applications of Commercial Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Fungal Inoculants and Their Ecological Consequences
No full textArbuscular mycorrhizal fungal (AMF) inoculants are sustainable biological materials that can provide several benefits to plants, especially in disturbed agroecosystems and in the context of phytomanagement interventions. However, it is difficult to predict the effectiveness of AMF inoculants and their impacts on indigenous AMF communities under field conditions. In this review, we examined the literature on the possible outcomes following the introduction of AMF-based inoculants in the field, including their establishment in soil and plant roots, persistence, and effects on the indigenous AMF community. Most studies indicate that introduced AMF can persist in the target field from a few months to several years but with declining abundance (60%) or complete exclusion (30%). Further analysis shows that AMF inoculation exerts both positive and negative impacts on native AMF species, including suppression (33%), stimulation (38%), exclusion (19%), and neutral impacts (10% of examined cases). The factors influencing the ecological fates of AMF inoculants, such as the inherent properties of the inoculum, dosage and frequency of inoculation, and soil physical and biological factors, are further discussed. While it is important to monitor the success and downstream impacts of commercial inoculants in the field, the sampling method and the molecular tools employed to resolve and quantify AMF taxa need to be improved and standardized to eliminate bias towards certain AMF strains and reduce discrepancies among studies. Lastly, inoculant producers must focus on selecting strains with a higher chance of success in the field, and having little or negligible downstream impacts
Does Commercial Inoculation Promote Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Fungi Invasion?
No full textInterventions with commercial inoculants have the potential to reduce the environmental footprint of agriculture, but their indiscriminate deployment has raised questions on the unintended consequences of microbial invasion. In the absence of explicit empirical reports on arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) invasion, we examine the present framework used to define AMF invasion and offer perspectives on the steps needed to avoid the negative impacts of AMF invasion. Although commercial AMF isolates are potential invaders, invasions do not always constitute negative impacts on native community diversity and functions. Instead, the fates of the invading and resident communities are determined by ecological processes such as selection, drift, dispersal, and speciation. Nevertheless, we recommend strategies that reduce overdependence on introduced inoculants, such as adoption management practices that promote the diversity and richness of indigenous AMF communities, and the development of native propagules as a supplement to commercial AMF in applicable areas. Policies and regulations that monitor inoculant value chains from production to application must be put in place to check inoculant quality and composition, as well as the transport of inoculants between geographically distant regions
Al-Akhdarī in Mandinka Ajami
No full textThe entire manuscript is available for download as a PDF file(s). Higher-resolution images may be available upon request. For technical assistance, please contact [email protected]. Fieldwork Team: Dr. Fallou Ngom (Pricipal Investigator; Director, African Studies Center), Ablaye Diakité (Local Project Manager), Mr. Ibrahima Yaffa (General Field Facilitator), and Ibrahima Ngom (photographer). Technical Team: Professor Fallou Ngom (Principle Investigator, Project Director and former Director of the African Studies Center at Boston University), and Eleni Castro (Technical Lead, BU Libraries). This collection of Mandinka Ajami materials is copied as part of the African Studies Center’s African Ajami Library. This is a joint project between BU and the West African Research Center (WARC), funded by the British Library/Arcadia Endangered Archives Programme. Access Condition and Copyright: These materials are subject to copyright and are distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 License, which permits non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are fully cited using the information below. For use, distribution or reproduction beyond these terms, contact Professor Fallou Ngom ([email protected]). Citation: Materials in this web edition should be cited as: Ngom, Fallou., Castro, Eleni, & Diakité, Ablaye. (2018). African Ajami Library: EAP 1042. Digital Preservation of Mandinka Ajami Materials of Casamance, Senegal. Boston: Boston University Libraries: http://hdl.handle.net/2144/27112. For Inquiries: please contact Professor Fallou Ngom ([email protected]). For technical assistance, please contact [email protected] / Custodial history: The manuscript's owner inherited it from his father (Imam Keba Dabo Cisse) after his death. His father was born in the region of Sedhiou. He had an advanced Islamic education and served as Imam and a religious leader in Ziguinchor until his death. Al-Haji Basiru Darboh, the author of Al-Akhdarī in Mandinka Ajami was from Daru Salaam, Badibu, The Gambia.The manuscript is a Mandinka Ajami exegesis of the popular Mālikī jurisprudence text known as Al-Akhdarī, which is used across Muslim West Africa. Al-Akhdarī, is based on the name of the Algerian scholar, Abū Yazīd ʿAbd al-Raḥmān bin Muḥammad al-Ṣaghīr bin Muḥammad bin ʿĀmir, who authored the original text in Arabic. He is regarded as one of the greatest Muslim scholars of Algeria. Similar interpretations and commentaries of Al-Akhdarī in Ajami exist in West Africa, including among the Fuuta Jalon Fula. Al-Akhdarī is one of the key texts of Islamic jurisprudence studied in Islamic schools in West Africa. The author of the Mandinka exegesis of Al-Akhdarī, like many other Muslims in the region, used Mandinka Ajami in order to broadly disseminate the ethos and traditions of Islam among his people, which is based on the Malikī School of jurisprudence. His intention was to ensure that Mandinka readers understand Islamic jurisprudence in their own language so that they can practice their religion without any confusion. On page 2, the author provides a list of Mandinka Ajami letters he used throughout the text. The manuscript was digitized in the home of the owner (Abdou Khadre Cisse) in the neighborhood of Kandialang in Ziguinchor, Senegal
Analysis of Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Fungal Inoculant Benchmarks
No full textGrowing evidence showed that efficient acquisition and use of nutrients by crops is controlled by root-associated microbiomes. Efficient management of this system is essential to improving crop yield, while reducing the environmental footprint of crop production. Both endophytic and rhizospheric microorganisms can directly promote crop growth, increasing crop yield per unit of soil nutrients. A variety of plant symbionts, most notably the arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF), nitrogen-fixing bacteria, and phosphate-potassium-solubilizing microorganisms entered the era of large-scale applications in agriculture, horticulture, and forestry. The purpose of this study is to compile data to give a complete and comprehensive assessment and an update of mycorrhizal-based inoculant uses in agriculture in the past, present, and future. Based on available data, 68 mycorrhizal products from 28 manufacturers across Europe, America, and Asia were examined on varying properties such as physical forms, arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal composition, number of active ingredients, claims of purpose served, mode of application, and recommendation. Results show that 90% of the products studied are in solid formula—powder (65%) and granular (25%), while only 10% occur in liquid formula. We found that 100% of the products are based on the Glomeraceae of which three species dominate among all the products in the order of Rhizophagus irregularis (39%), Funneliformis mosseae (21%), Claroideoglomus etunicatum (16%). Rhizophagus clarus is the least common among all the benchmark products. One third of the products is single species AMF and only 19% include other beneficial microbes. Of the sampled products, 44% contain AMF only while the rest are combined with varying active ingredients. Most of the products (84%) claimed to provide plant nutrient benefits. Soil application dominates agricultural practices of the products and represents 47%. A substantial amount of the inoculants were applied in cereal production. Recommended application doses varied extensively per plant, seed and hectare. AMF inoculant seed coating accounted for 26% of the products’ application and has great potential for increased inoculation efficiency over large-scale production due to minimum inoculum use. More applied research should also be conducted on the possible combination of AMF with other beneficial microbes
Phylogenetic clustering and ecological interactions of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi and their associated microbiome of a spontaneous plant across Moroccan drylands
No full textArbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) are ubiquitous in arid ecosystems, yet their distribution and community structure along spatial and ecological gradients remains insufficiently explored at regional scales. Here, we employed Malva sylvestris L., a native spontaneous plant species, to investigate the distribution patterns, phylogenetic structure, and community interactions of AMF and the associated root microbiome in dryland ecosystems. Sampling was conducted along a 700 km transect extending from the Atlantic coast to inland Morocco, encompassing predominantly semi-arid ecosystems. Amplicon sequencing of the LSU rDNA region of roots and soil samples revealed a highly diverse AMF assemblage spanning ten families, including Domikaceae, Diversisporaceae, Entrophosporaceae, Sclerocystaceae, and Septoglomeraceae, while the most frequent taxa belonged to the genera Dominikia, Entrophospora, Funneliformis, and Rhizophagus. Phylogenetic alpha diversity declined with increasing soil phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) but increased with soil potassium, precipitation, and distance from the coastline. AMF community dissimilarity in the rhizosphere was primarily explained by distance from the coastline, MAT, and precipitation together with soil P, N, whereas AMF communities in roots were mainly structured by soil P, N, and carbon. Community assembly processes among root-associated AMF were mainly shaped by total soil N and P: total N drove local AMF community structure (positive Nearest Taxon Index) while variation in soil P increased community turnover among locations (positive beta Nearest Taxon Index). Consequently, network topology was negatively correlated with soil P, and temperature, but positively with precipitation. Specialized AMF taxa, particularly Septoglomus and Funneliformis, acted as hubs in the root fungal network, whereas generalists such as Rhizophagus and Entrophospora drove cross-kingdom associations, interacting strongly with Rhizobium, Sphingomonas, and Caulobacter. Overall, this study advances our understanding of AMF ecology in dryland ecosystems and introduces an innovative bioinformatic workflow that provides new opportunities for exploring mycorrhizal diversity and functions.
© 2025. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature
Enhancing chickpea growth via arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal inoculation : facilitating nutrient uptake and shifting potential pathogenic fungal communities
No full textThe plant mycobiome makes essential contributions to the host life cycle in both healthy and diseased states. Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) are the most widespread plant symbionts associated with plant roots, and they perform numerous functions that contribute to plants’ health and physiology. However, there exist many knowledge gaps in how the interactions between AMF and host plants’ root mycobiomes influence the performance of host plants. To this end, we inoculated a local chickpea cultivar grown in an agricultural soil under semi-controlled conditions with Rhizophagus irregularis. The plants were subjected to low or normal levels of phosphorus (P) fertilization. In addition to examining mycorrhizal colonization, plant biomass, and mineral nutrition, we sequenced the ITS region of the rDNA to assess the chickpea mycobiome and identify key fungal taxa potentially responding to AMF inoculation. Our results showed that AMF inoculation had a stronger effect on chickpea aboveground biomass, in addition to mineral nutrition; whereas P fertilization had a more profound effect on belowground traits. Specifically, AMF promoted shoot (p = 0.06), root (p = 0.001), and total aboveground biomass (p = 0.01), while P fertilization enhanced root biomass (p = 0.02), in addition to root diameter (p = 0.007), root volume (p = 0.01), and root length (p = 0.08). Furthermore, the total P (p = 0.05) and Na contents (p = 0.09) were enhanced in the aboveground biomass by AMF inoculation. ITS metabarcoding revealed Ascomycota as the dominant phylum in both roots and soil biotopes, followed by Basidiomycota, Chytridiomycota, Glomeromycota, Monoblepharomycota, Mucoromycota, and Rozellomycota. Ten ASVs were significantly impacted by AMF inoculation in chickpea roots, including important plant pathogens belonging to Didymella, Fusarium, Neocosmospora, and Stagonosporopsis. Surprisingly, a correlation was established between shoot biomass and some fungal taxa that were differentially abundant in roots. This study confirms the significance of AMF inoculation not for only improving chickpeas’ growth and mineral nutrition in semi-arid conditions but also for shaping plants’ fungal community composition, thereby promoting resilience against both biotic and abiotic stressors
Nilai-nilai Pendidikan Islam Bagi Anak dalam Tradisi Basiru pada Kegiatan Khitanan
No full textThis study aims to describe the values ??of Islamic education for children in the local culture that still exists as an educational process in preserving the local culture of the Sekongkang community of West Sumbawa. The urgency of the basic tradition is carried out as a binding value in the Sekongkang community of West Sumbawa, where when another person provides help, that person must provide similar help without having to pay a wage. This is the case with circumcision activities carried out by the people of West Sumbawa in general. The author uses an interpretive approach with an ethnographic writing model. Ethnographic studies describe and interpret cultures, social groups, or systems. Several findings related to the value of education for children such as; Aqidah Educational Values, Character Education Values, Health Education Values??, and Sesks Educational Values. These values ??are instilled by parents to be understood and implemented by the child
Systematic review and meta-analysis of tuberculosis in animals in Nigeria
No full textAnimal tuberculosis (TB) is a contagious and chronic disease caused by mycobacteria belonging to theMycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) in domestic and wild animals. MTBC strains infection has been confirmed in many animal species in Nigeria, including captive wildlife, cattle, dromedary camels, goats, and pigs. Despite widespread infection and the potential impact of the disease on public health, active surveillance and control strategies are absent in Nigeria. This study aimed to conduct the first comprehensive meta-analysis to assess the distribution of tuberculosis and analyze the potential moderators of infection in animals in Nigeria. Eligible studies (sixty-one (Cadmus et al., 2014) [61] prevalence and seven (Menzies and Neill, 2000) [7] case reports) were retrieved and included in the analysis. The analyses showed an overall pooled TB prevalence of 7.0% (95% CI: 6.0-8.0) comprising of infection distributed in cattle (8.0%, 95% CI: 7.0-8.0), goats (0.47%, 95% CI: 0-1.2), sheep (0.27%, 95% CI: 0.14-0.46), camels (13.0%, 95% CI: 0-47), and wildlife (13.0%, 95% CI: 9-16) respectively. The occurrence of infection was significantly moderated by the publication periods, geographical location, sample size, and detection methods. TB prevalence was heterogeneous across several predictors, with the year of publication exhibiting a higher rate (46%) of the detected heterogeneity. These findings should provide policy-relevant information to guide the design and establishment of prevention and control measures amenable to the local situations in Nigeria. © 2023 The Author(s
Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
No full textBackground: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens
Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
No full textBackground: Accurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. Methods: To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline. Findings: During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction. Interpretation: Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens
