135,613 research outputs found
Trade, gravity, and sudden stops: on how commercial trade can increase the stability of capital flows
No full textThe author uses gravity estimates as instrumental variables for trade to test the proposition that countries that trade less with the rest of the world are more vulnerable to sudden stops in capital flows. The author finds that, all else equal, a 10 percentage point increase in the trade-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio reduces the probability of a sudden stop by approximately 32 percent. ; The estimation is motivated by a model that introduces balance sheet effects to a standard small open economy. In the model, the probability of sudden stops is directly related to the temptation of the borrowers to default in the aftermath of real depreciations. Countries that trade less with the rest of the world are more vulnerable to large real depreciations and, consequently, are always more tempted to default and are more prone to sudden stops ; The policy implications of the results presented here are unambiguous: Trade protectionism does not shield countries from external shocks to their capital accounts. On the contrary, anything that increases the tradable component of a country’s GDP will, ceteris paribus, reduce the vulnerability of that country to sudden stops in capital flows. Without large quantities of trade, capital account openness that leads to indebtedness in foreign currencies is risky and should probably be avoided.
Sudden Stops: Determinants and Output Effects in the First Era of Globalization, 1880-1913
No full textUsing a sample of 20 emerging countries from 1880 to 1913, we study the determinants and output effects of sudden stops in capital inflows during an era of intensified globalization. We find that higher levels of original sin (hard currency debt to total debt) and large current account deficits associated with reliance on foreign capital greatly increased the likelihood of experiencing a sudden stop. Trade openness and stronger commitment to the gold standard had the opposite effect. These results are robust for many sudden stop definitions used in the literature. Finally, we use a treatment effects model to show that after controlling for endogeneity sudden stops have a strong negative association with growth in per capita output. We also show that banking, currency and debt crises that were preceded by a sudden stop have much greater negative relation with growth than in the absence of a sudden stop.
Sudden stops and financial frictions : evidence from industry level data
No full textThe nature of the microeconomic frictions that transform sudden stops in output collapses is not only of academic interest, but also crucial for the correct design of policy responses to prevent and address these episodes and the lack of evidence on this regard is an important shortcoming. This paper uses industry-level data in a sample of 45 developed and emerging countries and a differences-in-differences methodology to provide evidence of the role of financial frictions for the consequences of sudden stops. The results show that, consistently with financial frictions being important, industries that are more dependent on external finance decline significantly more during a sudden stop, especially in less financially developed countries. The results are robust to controlling for other possible mechanisms, including labor market frictions. The paper also provides results on the role of comparative advantage during sudden stops and on the usefulness of various policy responses to attenuate the consequences of these shocks.Debt Markets,Emerging Markets,Access to Finance,Currencies and Exchange Rates,Economic Theory&Research
How do voiced retroflex stops evolve? Evidence from typology and an articulatory study
No full textThe present article illustrates that the specific articulatory and aerodynamic requirements for voiced but not voiceless alveolar or dental stops can cause tongue tip retraction and tongue mid lowering and thus retroflexion of front coronals. This retroflexion is shown to have occurred diachronically in the three typologically unrelated languages Dhao (Malayo-Polynesian), Thulung (Sino-Tibetan), and Afar (East-Cushitic). In addition to the diachronic cases, we provide synchronic data for retroflexion from an articulatory study with four speakers of German, a language usually described as having alveolar stops. With these combined data we supply evidence that voiced retroflex stops (as the only retroflex segments in a language) did not necessarily emerge from implosives, as argued by Haudricourt (1950), Greenberg (1970), Bhat (1973), and Ohala (1983). Instead, we propose that the voiced front coronal plosive /d/ is generally articulated in a way that favours retroflexion, that is, with a smaller and more retracted place of articulation and a lower tongue and jaw position than /t/
Sudden Stops, Financial Crises, and Original Sin in Emerging Countries: Déjà vu?
No full textThe current pattern of sudden stops and financial crises in emerging markets has great resonance to events in the first era of globalization, from 1870-1913. In this paper I present descriptive statistics on capital flows, current account reversals and financial crises during the period 1870-1913 and compare them with the recent experience. I analyze the incidence of crises and measure their effects on real output losses. Furthermore, I consider the influence of openness to trade, original sin and currency mismatches on the pattern of sudden stops and financial crises. I find strikingly similar patterns across both eras of globalization. The pre-1914 sudden stops were associated with significant output losses comparable with the recent events, and their effects differed considerably depending on a country%u2019s economic circumstances, just as they do today.
The phonological status of English oral stops after tautosyllabic /s/ : evidence from speakers' classificatory behaviour
No full textThe classification of oral stops after tautosyllabic /s/ in English is an old phonological problem to which different solutions have been proposed. In an attempt to provide experimental evidence on the classification of oral bilabial stops after tautosyllabic /s/ by native speakers of English, a concept formation experiment was conducted. The results showed that out of the four main phonological theoretical views on the classification of oral stops after tautosyllabic /s/, the solution which treats those speech segments as allophones of the phonemes /p, t, k/ is the most plausible from the point of view of language users' classificatory behaviour
Surges and Sudden Stops of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets
No full textA characteristic of many of the recent emerging market currency crises is a preceding surge in capital inflows and their reversals or ‘sudden stops’ during the crises. The empirical investigation of 38 emerging market economies between 1990 and 2003 reveals that a surge in capital inflows significantly increases the probability of a sudden stop. In addition, a surge accompanied by a high current account deficit or an appreciated real exchange rate is more likely to be associated with a sudden stop. The paper also finds that a surge that is dominated by private loans and portfolio flows rather than direct investment has a higher probability to end with a sudden stop.Capital flows; Sudden stops; Surges in capital flows; Emerging Markets; private loans; portfolio flows; foreign direct investment
Does Openness to Trade Make Countries More Vulnerable to Sudden Stops, or Less? Using Gravity to Establish Causality
No full textOpenness to trade is one factor that has been identified as determining whether a country is prone to sudden stops in capital inflows, crashes in currencies, or severe recessions. Some believe that openness raises vulnerability to foreign shocks, while others believe that it makes adjustment to crises less painful. Several authors have offered empirical evidence that having a large tradable sector reduces the contraction necessary to adjust to a given cut-off in funding. This would help explain lower vulnerability to crises in Asia than in Latin America. Such studies may, however, be subject to the problem that trade is endogenous. Using the gravity instrument for trade openness, which is constructed from geographical determinants of bilateral trade, this paper finds that openness indeed makes countries less vulnerable, both to severe sudden stops and currency crashes, and that the relationship is even stronger when correcting for the endogeneity of trade.
On the Acoustic Characterization of Ejective Stops in Waima’a
No full textWe examine some acoustic properties of ejective stops in Waima’a (an Austronesian language spoken in East Timor), and compare them with other voiceless stop types that occur in the language. Previous studies of ejectives in other languages have suggested that they may fall into two classes, strong and weak. We compare our Waima’a results with some existing findings in the literature, and suggest that while Waima’a ejectives might appear to be more appropriately characterized as strong on some criteria, they do not sit squarely in either category
Acoustic characteristics of velar stops and velar softening in German, Polish and Catalan
No full textTwo hypotheses have been proposed in order to account for velar softening, i.e., a process through which /k/ changes to an affricate. Whereas one hypothesis states that for the process to apply the velar stop has to be realized as an (alveolo) palatal stop (articulation-based hypothesis), the other claims that velar softening is triggered by acoustic similarity between the input and output segments (acoustic equivalence hypothesis). The present paper investigates the acoustic equivalence hypothesis by comparing several acoustic properties of /k/ in various vowel contexts with those of /ts , ts , tc / for three languages differing in stop burst aspiration, i.e., German, Polish and Catalan. Results suggest that the acoustic equivalence hypothesis could account for velar softening in aspirated velar stops but not in unaspirated velar stops. The results also provide an explanation as to why aspirated velar stops are prone to undergo softening more easily when followed by front vocalic segments than in other contexts and position
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