119,504 research outputs found
On estimating local long-term climate trends
No full textClimate sensitivity is commonly taken to refer to the equilibrium change in the annual mean global surface temperature following a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Evaluating this variable remains of significant scientific interest, but its global nature makes it largely irrelevant to many areas of climate science, such as impact assessments, and also to policy in terms of vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning. Here, we focus on local changes and on the way observational data can be analysed to inform us about how local climate has changed since the middle of the nineteenth century. Taking the perspective of climate as a constantly changing distribution, we evaluate the relative changes between different quantiles of such distributions and between different geographical locations for the same quantiles. We show how the observational data can provide guidance on trends in local climate at the specific thresholds relevant to particular impact or policy endeavours. This also quantifies the level of detail needed from climate models if they are to be used as tools to assess climate change impact. The mathematical basis is presented for two methods of extracting these local trends from the data. The two methods are compared first using surrogate data, to clarify the methods and their uncertainties, and then using observational surface temperature time series from four locations across Europe
Numerical analysis of a 3-D printed porous trailing edge for broadband noise reduction
No full textLattice Boltzmann simulations were carried out to investigate the noise mitigation mechanisms of a 3-D printed porous trailing-edge insert, elucidating the link between noise reduction and material permeability. The porous insert is based on a unit cell resembling a lattice of diamond atoms. It replaces the last 20 % chord of a NACA 0018 at zero angle-of-attack. A partially blocked insert is considered by adding a solid partition between 84 % and 96 % of the aerofoil chord. The regular porous insert achieves a substantial noise reduction at low frequencies, although a slight noise increase is found at high frequencies. The partially blocked porous insert exhibits a lower noise reduction level, but the noise emission at mid-to-high frequency is slightly affected. The segment of the porous insert near the tip plays a dominant role in promoting noise mitigation, whereas the solid-porous junction contributes, in addition to the rough surface, towards the high-frequency excess noise. The current study demonstrates the existence of an entrance length associated with the porous material geometry, which is linked to the pressure release process that is responsible for promoting noise mitigation. This process is characterised by the aerodynamic interaction between pressure fluctuations across the porous medium, which is found at locations where the porous insert thickness is less than twice the entrance length. Present results also suggest that the noise attenuation level is related to both the chordwise extent of the porous insert and the streamwise turbulent length scale. The porous inserts also cause a slight drag increase compared to their solid counterpart. Wind Energ
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Climate nonlinearities: selection, uncertainty, projections, and damages
No full textClimate projections are uncertain; this uncertainty is costly and impedes progress on climate policy. This uncertainty is primarily parametric (what numbers do we plug into our equations?), structural (what equations do we use in the first place?), and due to internal variability (natural variability intrinsic to the climate system). The former and latter are straightforward to characterise in principle, though may be computationally intensive for complex climate models. The second is more challenging to characterise and is therefore often ignored. We developed a Bayesian approach to quantify structural uncertainty in climate projections, using the idealised energy-balance model representations of climate physics that underpin many economists' integrated assessment models (IAMs) (and therefore their policy recommendations). We define a model selection parameter, which switches on one of a suite of proposed climate nonlinearities and multidecadal climate feedbacks. We find that a model with a temperature-dependent climate feedback is most consistent with global mean surface temperature observations, but that the sign of the temperature-dependence is opposite of what Earth system models suggest. This difference of sign is likely due to the assumption tha the recent pattern effect can be represented as a temperature dependence. Moreover, models other than the most likely one contain a majority of the posterior probability, indicating that structural uncertainty is important for climate projections. Indeed, in projections using shared socioeconomic pathways similar to current emissions reductions targets, structural uncertainty dwarfs parametric uncertainty in temperature. Consequently, structural uncertainty dominates overall non-socioeconomic uncertainty in economic projections of climate change damages, as estimated from a simple temperature-to-damages calculation. These results indicate that considering structural uncertainty is crucial for IAMs in particular, and for climate projections in general
A 2 h periodic variation in the low-mass X-ray binary Ser X-1
No full textSpectroscopy of the low-mass X-ray binary Ser X-1 using the Gran Telescopio Canarias have revealed a ?2 h periodic variability that is present in the three strongest emission lines. We tentatively interpret this variability as due to orbital motion, making it the first indication of the orbital period of Ser X-1. Together with the fact that the emission lines are remarkably narrow, but still resolved, we show that a main-sequence K dwarf together with a canonical 1.4 M? neutron star gives a good description of the system. In this scenario, the most likely place for the emission lines to arise is the accretion disc, instead of a localized region in the binary (such as the irradiated surface or the stream-impact point), and their narrowness is due instead to the low inclination (?10°) of Ser X-1
Direct P-Wave Seismic Noise Interferometry for Groundwater Monitoring: A Modelling Study
No full textIn this study, we monitor the depth variation of an unconfined aquifer by applying seismic noise interferometry to synthetic data modelled with a 2D finite-difference software. We consider two models with the same subsurface geological structure, but with different water table levels representing two monitoring periods. The receivers are placed at the topographic surface and collect the seismic signals generated by a source located at the bottom of the aquifer to simulate a pumping system. First, cross-correlation of seismic traces with a reference one is used to produce interferograms (i.e., virtual surveys) for both the tested models. Then, direct P-wave arrivals identified in the two interferograms are compared through the stretching technique in order to estimate the relative velocity changes (dv/v). Finally, the estimated dv/v values are related to theoretical ones obtained using a reference subsurface model to produce the water level depth in the considered monitoring period.Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository 'You share, we take care!' - Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.Applied Geophysics and Petrophysic
MeSH term explosion and author rank improve expert recommendations
No full textInformation overload is an often-cited phenomenon that reduces the productivity, efficiency and efficacy of scientists. One challenge for scientists is to find appropriate collaborators in their research. The literature describes various solutions to the problem of expertise location, but most current approaches do not appear to be very suitable for expert recommendations in biomedical research. In this study, we present the development and initial evaluation of a vector space model-based algorithm to calculate researcher similarity using four inputs: 1) MeSH terms of publications; 2) MeSH terms and author rank; 3) exploded MeSH terms; and 4) exploded MeSH terms and author rank. We developed and evaluated the algorithm using a data set of 17,525 authors and their 22,542 papers. On average, our algorithms correctly predicted 2.5 of the top 5/10 coauthors of individual scientists. Exploded MeSH and author rank outperformed all other algorithms in accuracy, followed closely by MeSH and author rank. Our results show that the accuracy of MeSH term-based matching can be enhanced with other metadata such as author rank
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
No full textThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
The Thursday Murder Club: Launching a megabrand author - a publishing case study
No full textIn 2020, the Christmas book charts in the UK made headlines: Barack Obama’s eagerly awaited autobiography, The Promised Land, was beaten to the top spot by The Thursday Murder Club by Richard Osman, a debut cosy crime novel set in a retirement village. Not only did Osman’s book beat the former US president’s expected bestseller, it also broke records, becoming the fastest-selling debut crime novel of all time. Although Osman has a certain level of fame in the UK from his TV appearances on shows such as Pointless, his celebrity status does not entirely explain the novel’s huge sales. This article tracks the acquisition, publication, and promotion journey of The Thursday Murder Club in order to understand the industry and cultural context of its success and to interrogate the role of celebrity in the creation of author brands. The findings suggest that the unexpected scale of the success of the book owed to a number of factors, including in-depth editing by the novel’s agent, editor, and author to tighten up the plot, an extensive and strategic promotional campaign, the pandemic (which drove interest in the book’s genre and themes), and the quality of the writing. We find that the book’s success was accentuated by Osman’s celebrity status rather than being entirely reliant on it. This research adds to the growing scholarship on celebrity authorship by means of an in-depth case study and provides insight into the processes behind publishing a ‘celebrity’ book and launching a megabrand author
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