93 research outputs found
Development of nano-encapsulation systems for the food antifungal natamycin: Formulation, characterization and post-processing
No full textFood spoilage has become in the last decades one of the biggest challenges faced by the food industry, with a significant amount of products thrown away at every step of the supply chain. Microbial contamination is listed as one of the major causes of food spoilage and can be at a large extent prevented by application of antimicrobial compounds. Recent trends on the market such as an increasing demand of consumers for natural preservatives and their application in reduced quantities, coupled with the difficulty for industrials to get new antimicrobials approved by health authorities, lead the food industry to a process of reformulation and improvement of functionality and efficiency of already approved ingredients. Natamycin, a naturally-occurring food preservative widely used for the protection of food surfaces, is one of the most popular antifungal agents currently used. This molecule presents several advantages linked to its natural origin, long history of safe use, efficiency at low concentrations and limited modification of food products when applied. Current formulations of the preservative offer however limited specificity or tunability towards applications and little possibilities of controlled/triggered release. This compound also presents a relatively poor aqueous solubility detrimental for its antifungal action and is very sensitive to early-stage degradation by environmental factors such as extreme pH, oxidation and UV exposure. The main goal of this PhD thesis was to determine if the incorporation of this molecule within nano-encapsulation systems could provide benefits for availability, tunability and degradation issues. As a first step, formulation, optimization and characterization of two model nano-encapsulation systems (biodegradable polymeric nanospheres and nano-liposomes) were performed and compared in terms of relative benefit for the encapsulation, delivery, antifungal performance and stability of the antimicrobial. Post-processing of the most promising nano-encapsulation systems in order to obtain commercial products was further evaluated by purification/concentration (tangential flow filtration) or by transformation into redispersible dry products by lyophilization.Nano-liposomes were found overall superior to polymeric nanospheres for the encapsulation and delivery of our molecule and offer higher possible levels of tunability in terms of release rates and antifungal performance. Lyophilization in presence of carbohydrates turned out to be a valuable method for the preparation of dried products with enhanced long-term stability of the antifungal, compared to concentrates prepared by tangential flow filtration, a tedious process that impacted negatively the stability of the preservative
Profil Epidémiologique des cancers colorectaux dans la région Est et Sud-Est de l’Algérie
No full textIntroduction. Colorectal cancer is the third leading cause of cancer death in the world
and its incidence continues to increase in developing countries adopting the Western
way of life. Objective. The purpose of this regional study covering 19 wilayas of the
country is to provide data on the incidence of colorectal cancer, to study its
geographical distribution and its evolution. Material and Methods. This is a
multicenter descriptive epidemiological study from January 1, 2014 to December 31,
2018 on all cases of colorectal cancer diagnosed in the Eastern region and Southeastern of Algeria. The regional incidence of cancers is estimated from validated
registries. Results. The gender distribution of colorectal cancer between 2014 – 2018
shows that: In men, the crude incidence rate was 14,6 per 100 000 inhabitants, which
corresponds to a standardized rate of 19.3 per 100 000 inhabitants and it represents
15.9% of all male cancers. In women, the gross incidence rate was 14.0 per 100 000
inhabitants, which corresponds to a standardized rate of 18.2 per 100 000 inhabitants
and represents 11.2% of all female cancers. The incidence rates of these cancers
increase with age from 40 years in both sexes, they are higher in Annaba in both sexes.
Conclusion. the frequency of colorectal cancer will not stop growing in this region if
no preventive measures are taken such as a decrease in the prevalence of the main
risk factors, namely smoking and obesity. However, recent advances in screening,
early detection and treatment options will reduce mortality even in the face of
increasing incidence
Dynamics of disease characteristics and clinical management of critically ill COVID-19 patients over the time course of the pandemic: an analysis of the prospective, international, multicentre RISC-19-ICU registry.
No full textBACKGROUND
It remains elusive how the characteristics, the course of disease, the clinical management and the outcomes of critically ill COVID-19 patients admitted to intensive care units (ICU) worldwide have changed over the course of the pandemic.
METHODS
Prospective, observational registry constituted by 90 ICUs across 22 countries worldwide including patients with a laboratory-confirmed, critical presentation of COVID-19 requiring advanced organ support. Hierarchical, generalized linear mixed-effect models accounting for hospital and country variability were employed to analyse the continuous evolution of the studied variables over the pandemic.
RESULTS
Four thousand forty-one patients were included from March 2020 to September 2021. Over this period, the age of the admitted patients (62 [95% CI 60-63] years vs 64 [62-66] years, p < 0.001) and the severity of organ dysfunction at ICU admission decreased (Sequential Organ Failure Assessment 8.2 [7.6-9.0] vs 5.8 [5.3-6.4], p < 0.001) and increased, while more female patients (26 [23-29]% vs 41 [35-48]%, p < 0.001) were admitted. The time span between symptom onset and hospitalization as well as ICU admission became longer later in the pandemic (6.7 [6.2-7.2| days vs 9.7 [8.9-10.5] days, p < 0.001). The PaO2/FiO2 at admission was lower (132 [123-141] mmHg vs 101 [91-113] mmHg, p < 0.001) but showed faster improvements over the initial 5 days of ICU stay in late 2021 compared to early 2020 (34 [20-48] mmHg vs 70 [41-100] mmHg, p = 0.05). The number of patients treated with steroids and tocilizumab increased, while the use of therapeutic anticoagulation presented an inverse U-shaped behaviour over the course of the pandemic. The proportion of patients treated with high-flow oxygen (5 [4-7]% vs 20 [14-29], p < 0.001) and non-invasive mechanical ventilation (14 [11-18]% vs 24 [17-33]%, p < 0.001) throughout the pandemic increased concomitant to a decrease in invasive mechanical ventilation (82 [76-86]% vs 74 [64-82]%, p < 0.001). The ICU mortality (23 [19-26]% vs 17 [12-25]%, p < 0.001) and length of stay (14 [13-16] days vs 11 [10-13] days, p < 0.001) decreased over 19 months of the pandemic.
CONCLUSION
Characteristics and disease course of critically ill COVID-19 patients have continuously evolved, concomitant to the clinical management, throughout the pandemic leading to a younger, less severely ill ICU population with distinctly different clinical, pulmonary and inflammatory presentations than at the onset of the pandemic
Adolescent transport and unintentional injuries: a systematic analysis using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
No full textSummaryBackgroundGlobally, transport and unintentional injuries persist as leading preventable causes of mortality and morbidity for adolescents. We sought to report comprehensive trends in injury-related mortality and morbidity for adolescents aged 10–24 years during the past three decades. MethodsUsing the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2019 Study, we analysed mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributed to transport and unintentional injuries for adolescents in 204 countries. Burden is reported in absolute numbers and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population by sex, age group (10–14, 15–19, and 20–24 years), and sociodemographic index (SDI) with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We report percentage changes in deaths and DALYs between 1990 and 2019. FindingsIn 2019, 369 061 deaths (of which 214 337 [58%] were transport related) and 31·1 million DALYs (of which 16·2 million [52%] were transport related) among adolescents aged 10–24 years were caused by transport and unintentional injuries combined. If compared with other causes, transport and unintentional injuries combined accounted for 25% of deaths and 14% of DALYs in 2019, and showed little improvement from 1990 when such injuries accounted for 26% of adolescent deaths and 17% of adolescent DALYs. Throughout adolescence, transport and unintentional injury fatality rates increased by age group. The unintentional injury burden was higher among males than females for all injury types, except for injuries related to fire, heat, and hot substances, or to adverse effects of medical treatment. From 1990 to 2019, global mortality rates declined by 34·4% (from 17·5 to 11·5 per 100 000) for transport injuries, and by 47·7% (from 15·9 to 8·3 per 100 000) for unintentional injuries. However, in low-SDI nations the absolute number of deaths increased (by 80·5% to 42 774 for transport injuries and by 39·4% to 31 961 for unintentional injuries). In the high-SDI quintile in 2010–19, the rate per 100 000 of transport injury DALYs was reduced by 16·7%, from 838 in 2010 to 699 in 2019. This was a substantially slower pace of reduction compared with the 48·5% reduction between 1990 and 2010, from 1626 per 100 000 in 1990 to 838 per 100 000 in 2010. Between 2010 and 2019, the rate of unintentional injury DALYs per 100 000 also remained largely unchanged in high-SDI countries (555 in 2010 vs 554 in 2019 0·2% reduction). The number and rate of adolescent deaths and DALYs owing to environmental heat and cold exposure increased for the high-SDI quintile during 2010–19. InterpretationAs other causes of mortality are addressed, inadequate progress in reducing transport and unintentional injury mortality as a proportion of adolescent deaths becomes apparent. The relative shift in the burden of injury from high-SDI countries to low and low–middle-SDI countries necessitates focused action, including global donor, government, and industry investment in injury prevention. The persisting burden of DALYs related to transport and unintentional injuries indicates a need to prioritise innovative measures for the primary prevention of adolescent injury. Funding -Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. *Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 30 including Federation University Australia affiliate “Muhammad Aziz Rahman" is provided in this record*
Epidemiology of surgery associated acute kidney injury (EPIS-AKI): a prospective international observational multi-center clinical study
No full textEpidemiology of surgery associated acute kidney injury (EPIS-AKI): a prospective international observational multi-center clinical study
No full textPurpose: The incidence, patient features, risk factors and outcomes of surgery-associated postoperative acute kidney injury (PO-AKI) across different countries and health care systems is unclear. Methods: We conducted an international prospective, observational, multi-center study in 30 countries in patients undergoing major surgery (> 2-h duration and postoperative intensive care unit (ICU) or high dependency unit admission). The primary endpoint was the occurrence of PO-AKI within 72 h of surgery defined by the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) criteria. Secondary endpoints included PO-AKI severity and duration, use of renal replacement therapy (RRT), mortality, and ICU and hospital length of stay. Results: We studied 10,568 patients and 1945 (18.4%) developed PO-AKI (1236 (63.5%) KDIGO stage 1500 (25.7%) KDIGO stage 2209 (10.7%) KDIGO stage 3). In 33.8% PO-AKI was persistent, and 170/1945 (8.7%) of patients with PO-AKI received RRT in the ICU. Patients with PO-AKI had greater ICU (6.3% vs. 0.7%) and hospital (8.6% vs. 1.4%) mortality, and longer ICU (median 2 (Q1-Q3, 1-3) days vs. 3 (Q1-Q3, 1-6) days) and hospital length of stay (median 14 (Q1-Q3, 9-24) days vs. 10 (Q1-Q3, 7-17) days). Risk factors for PO-AKI included older age, comorbidities (hypertension, diabetes, chronic kidney disease), type, duration and urgency of surgery as well as intraoperative vasopressors, and aminoglycosides administration. Conclusion: In a comprehensive multinational study, approximately one in five patients develop PO-AKI after major surgery. Increasing severity of PO-AKI is associated with a progressive increase in adverse outcomes. Our findings indicate that PO-AKI represents a significant burden for health care worldwide
Trends in the global, regional, and national burden of oral conditions from 1990 to 2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
No full textBackground
The WHO Global Oral Health Action Plan has set an overarching global target of achieving a 10% reduction in the prevalence of oral conditions by 2030. Robust and up-to-date information on the global burden of oral conditions is paramount to monitor progress towards this target. The aim of this systematic data analysis was to produce global, WHO region, and country-level estimates of the prevalence of, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributed to, untreated caries, severe periodontitis, edentulism, other oral disorders, lip and oral cavity cancer, and orofacial clefts from 1990 to 2021.
Methods
This report is based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021. Input data were extracted from epidemiological surveys, population-based registries, and vital statistics. Data were modelled with DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, to ensure consistency between prevalence, incidence, remission, and mortality estimates for oral conditions. DALYs were estimated as the aggregation of the years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLDs were calculated by multiplying prevalence estimates, the severity of the oral condition's sequelae (disability weight) and duration of the sequelae. Although all oral conditions lead to YLDs, only lip and oral cavity cancer and orofacial clefts lead to YLLs as well. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric with the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution.
Findings
The combined global age-standardised prevalence of the main oral conditions (untreated caries, severe periodontitis, edentulism, and other oral disorders) was 45 900 (95% UI 42 300 to 49 800) per 100 000 population in 2021, with 3·69 billion (3·40 to 4·00) people affected globally. Untreated dental caries of permanent teeth and severe periodontitis were the most common oral conditions, with a global age-standardised prevalence of 27 500 (24 000 to 32 000) per 100 000 population and 12 500 (10 500 to 14 500) per 100 000 population, respectively. Edentulism, severe periodontitis, and lip and oral cavity cancer caused the highest burden as demonstrated by their counts of DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates. Existing trends for 1990–2021 reveal relatively small changes (upward or downward) in prevalence and burden. Increasing counts of prevalent cases and DALYs were noted for all oral conditions but untreated caries of deciduous teeth (no percentage change in prevalence or DALYs) and orofacial clefts (–68·3% [–79·3 to –46·5] decrease in DALYs). There were decreases in both age-standardised prevalence and DALY rate for untreated caries of permanent teeth and edentulism, no change in both for untreated caries of deciduous teeth and severe periodontitis, an increase in the prevalence but no change in the DALY rate for lip and oral cavity cancer, and no change in the prevalence but a decrease in the DALY rate for orofacial clefts. By WHO region, the African and Eastern Mediterranean regions showed the largest increases in prevalent cases and DALYs for most oral conditions, while the European region showed the smallest increases or no change. The European region was the only region with decreasing age-standardised prevalence of untreated caries in both deciduous (–9·88%; –12·6 to –6·71) and permanent teeth (–5·94% (–8·38 to –3·62). The prevalence and DALY rate of severe periodontitis decreased in the African region, while the prevalence and DALY rate of edentulism decreased in the African region, South-East Asia region, and Western Pacific region. Furthermore, DALY rates of lip and oral cavity cancer decreased in the European region and the region of the Americas, while DALY rates of orofacial clefts decreased in all regions.
Interpretation
The minor changes in the burden of oral conditions over the past 30 years demonstrate that past and current efforts to control oral conditions have not been successful and that different approaches are needed. Many countries now face the double challenge of controlling the occurrence of new cases of oral conditions and addressing the huge unmet need for oral health care
Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
No full textFunding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.Peer ReviewedArticle signat per 1420 autors/es. Membres del GBD 2021 Forecasting Collaborators:
Stein Emil Vollset*, Hazim S Ababneh, Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abate, Cristiana Abbafati, Rouzbeh Abbasgholizadeh, Mohammadreza Abbasian, Hedayat Abbastabar, Abdallah H A Abd Al Magied, Samar Abd ElHafeez, Atef Abdelkader, Michael Abdelmasseh, Sherief Abd-Elsalam, Parsa Abdi, Mohammad Abdollahi, Meriem Abdoun, Auwal Abdullahi, Mesfin Abebe, Olumide Abiodun, Richard Gyan Aboagye, Hassan Abolhassani, Mohamed Abouzid, Girma Beressa Aboye, Lucas Guimarães Abreu, Abdorrahim Absalan, Hasan Abualruz, Bilyaminu Abubakar, Hana Jihad Jihad Abukhadijah, Giovanni Addolorato, Victor Adekanmbi, Charles Oluwaseun Adetunji, Juliana Bunmi Adetunji, Temitayo Esther Adeyeoluwa, Rishan Adha, Ripon Kumar Adhikary, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani, Leticia Akua Adzigbli, Fatemeh Afrashteh, Muhammad Sohail Afzal, Saira Afzal, Faith Agbozo, Antonella Agodi, Anurag Agrawal, Williams Agyemang-Duah, Bright Opoku Ahinkorah, Austin J Ahlstrom, Aqeel Ahmad, Firdos Ahmad, Muayyad M Ahmad, Sajjad Ahmad, Shahzaib Ahmad, Anisuddin Ahmed, Ayman Ahmed, Haroon Ahmed, Safoora Ahmed, Syed Anees Ahmed, Karolina Akinosoglou, Mohammed Ahmed Akkaif, Ashley E Akrami, Ema Akter, Salah Al Awaidy, Syed Mahfuz Al Hasan, Amjad S Al Mosa, Omar Al Ta’ani, Omar Ali Mohammed Al Zaabi, Fares Alahdab, Muaaz M Alajlani, Yazan Al-Ajlouni, Samer O Alalalmeh, Ziyad Al-Aly, Khurshid Alam, Noore Alam, Tahiya Alam, Zufishan Alam, Rasmieh Mustafa Al-amer, Fahad Mashhour Alanezi, Turki M Alanzi, Almaza Albakri, Wafa A Aldhaleei, Robert W Aldridge, Seyedeh Yasaman Alemohammad, Yihun Mulugeta Alemu, Adel Ali Saeed Al-Gheethi, Mohammed Khaled Al-Hanawi, Abid Ali, Amjad Ali, Iman Ali, Mohammed Usman Ali, Rafat Ali, Syed Shujait Shujait Ali, Victor Ekoche Ali, Waad Ali, Akram Al-Ibraheem, Gianfranco Alicandro, Sheikh Mohammad Alif, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, François Alla, Joseph Uy Almazan, Hesham M Al-Mekhlafi, Ahmed Yaseen Alqutaibi, Ahmad Alrawashdeh, Sahel Majed Alrousan, Salman Khalifah Al-Sabah, Mohammed A Alsabri, Zaid Altaany, Ala’a B Al-Tammemi, Jaffar A Al-Tawfiq, Khalid A Altirkawi, Deborah Oyine Aluh, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Mohammad Sami Al-Wardat, Yaser Mohammed Al-Worafi, Hany Aly, Mohammad Sharif Alyahya, Karem H Alzoubi, Walid Al-Zyoud, Reza Amani, Edward Kwabena Ameyaw, Tarek Tawfik Amin, Alireza Amindarolzarbi, Sohrab Amiri, Mohammad Hosein Amirzade-Iranaq, Hubert Amu, Dickson A Amugsi, Robert Ancuceanu, Deanna Anderlini, David B Anderson, Pedro Prata Andrade, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Tudorel Andrei, Erick Adrian Andrews, Abhishek Anil, Sneha Anil, Amir Anoushiravani, Catherine M Antony, Ernoiz Antriyandarti, Boluwatife Stephen Anuoluwa, Saeid Anvari, Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor, Francis Appiah, Michele Aquilano, Juan Pablo Arab, Jalal Arabloo, Elshaimaa A Arafa, Mosab Arafat, Aleksandr Y Aravkin, Ali Ardekani, Demelash Areda, Brhane Berhe Aregawi, Abdulfatai Aremu, Hany Ariffin, Mesay Arkew, Keivan Armani, Anton A Artamonov, Ashokan Arumugam, Mohammad Asghari-Jafarabadi, Charlie Ashbaugh, Thomas Astell-Burt, Seyyed Shamsadin Athari, Prince Atorkey, Maha Moh’d Wahbi Atout, Avinash Aujayeb, Marcel Ausloos, Hamzeh Awad, Adedapo Wasiu Awotidebe, Haleh Ayatollahi, Jose L Ayuso-Mateos, Sina Azadnajafabad, Fahad Khan Azeez, Rui M S Azevedo, Muhammad Badar, Soroush Baghdadi, Mahboube Bagheri, Nasser Bagheri, Ruhai Bai, Jennifer L Baker, Abdulaziz T Bako, Senthilkumar Balakrishnan, Wondu Feyisa Balcha, Ovidiu Constantin Baltatu, Martina Barchitta, Erfan Bardideh, Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo, Till Winfried Bärnighausen, Hiba Jawdat Barqawi, Sandra Barteit, Afisu Basiru, João Diogo Basso, Mohammad-Mahdi Bastan, Sanjay Basu, Matteo Bauckneht, Bernhard T Baune, Mohsen Bayati, Nebiyou Simegnew Bayileyegn, Amir Hossein Behnoush, Payam Behzadi, Maryam Beiranvand, Olorunjuwon Omolaja Bello, Luis Belo, Apostolos Beloukas, Maryam Bemanalizadeh, Isabela M Bensenor, Habib Benzian, Azizullah Beran, Zombor Berezvai, Robert S Bernstein, Paulo J G Bettencourt, Kebede A Beyene, Melak Gedamu Beyene, Devidas S Bhagat, Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula, Neeraj Bhala, Dinesh Bhandari, Ravi Bharadwaj, Nikha Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Ashish Bhargava, Sonu Bhaskar, Vivek Bhat, Natalia V Bhattacharjee, Gurjit Kaur Bhatti, Jasvinder Singh Bhatti, Manpreet S Bhatti, Mohiuddin Ahmed Bhuiyan, Catherine Bisignano, Bijit Biswas, Tone Bjørge, Virginia Bodolica, Aadam Olalekan Bodunrin, Milad Bonakdar Hashemi, Berrak Bora Basara, Hamed Borhany, Samuel Adolf Bosoka, Alejandro Botero Carvajal, Souad Bouaoud, Soufiane Boufous, Christopher Boxe, Edward J Boyko, Oliver J Brady, Dejana Braithwaite, Michael Brauer, Javier Brazo-Sayavera, Hermann Brenner, Colin Stewart Brown, Annie J Browne, Traolach Brugha, Dana Bryazka, Norma B Bulamu, Danilo Buonsenso, Katrin Burkart, Richard A Burns, Reinhard Busse, Yasser Bustanji, Zahid A Butt, Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos, Mehtap Çakmak Barsbay, Daniela Calina, Luciana Aparecida Campos, Shujin Cao, Angelo Capodici, Rosario Cárdenas, Giulia Carreras, Andrea Carugno, Márcia Carvalho, Joao Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia, Giulio Castelpietra, Maria Sofia Cattaruzza, Arthur Caye, Luca Cegolon, Francieli Cembranel, Edina Cenko, Ester Cerin, Steven J Chadban, Joshua Chadwick, Chiranjib Chakraborty, Sandip Chakraborty, Julian Chalek, Jeffrey Shi Kai Chan, Rama Mohan Chandika, Sara Chandy, Jaykaran Charan, Anis Ahmad Chaudhary, Akhilanand Chaurasia, An-Tian Chen, Haowei Chen, Meng Xuan Chen, Simiao Chen, Nicolas Cherbuin, Gerald Chi, Fatemeh Chichagi, Odgerel Chimed-Ochir, Ritesh Chimoriya, Patrick R Ching, Jesus Lorenzo Chirinos-Caceres, Abdulaal Chitheer, Daniel Youngwhan Cho, William C S Cho, Dong-Woo Choi, Bryan Chong, Chean Lin Chong, Hitesh Chopra, Dinh-Toi Chu, Eric Chung, Muhammad Chutiyami, Justin T Clayton, Rebecca M Cogen, Aaron J Cohen, Alyssa Columbus, Haley Comfort, Joao Conde, Jon T Connolly, Ezra E K Cooper, Samuele Cortese, Natália Cruz-Martins, Alanna Gomes da Silva, Omid Dadras, Xiaochen Dai, Zhaoli Dai, Bronte E Dalton, Giovanni Damiani, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Jai K Das, Saswati Das, Subasish Das, Nihar Ranjan Dash, Kairat Davletov, Fernando Pio De la Hoz, Diego De Leo, Shayom Debopadhaya, Ivan Delgado-Enciso, Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez, Nikolaos Dervenis, Hardik Dineshbhai Desai, Vinoth Gnana Chellaiyan Devanbu, Syed Masudur Rahman Dewan, Kuldeep Dhama, Amol S Dhane, Sameer Dhingra, Diana Dias da Silva, Daniel Diaz, Luis Antonio Diaz, Michael J Diaz, Adriana Dima, Delaney D Ding, Thao Huynh Phuong Do, Camila Bruneli do Prado, Masoud Dodangeh, Milad Dodangeh, Phidelia Theresa Doegah, Sushil Dohare, Wanyue Dong, Mario D’Oria, Rajkumar Doshi, Robert Kokou Dowou, Haneil Larson Dsouza, Viola Dsouza, John Dube, Samuel C Dumith, Bruce B Duncan, Andre Rodrigues Duraes, Senbagam Duraisamy, Oyewole Christopher Durojaiye, Anar Dushpanova, Sulagna Dutta, Paulina Agnieszka Dzianach, Arkadiusz Marian Dziedzic, Ejemai Eboreime, Alireza Ebrahimi, Mohammad Ebrahimi Kalan, Hisham Atan Edinur, Ferry Efendi, Terje Andreas Eikemo, Ebrahim Eini, Temitope Cyrus Ekundayo, Rabie Adel El Arab, Iman El Sayed, Osman Elamin, Noha Mousaad Elemam, Ghada Metwally Tawfik ElGohary, Muhammed Elhadi, Omar Abdelsadek Abdou Elmeligy, Adel B Elmoselhi, Mohammed Elshaer, Ibrahim Elsohaby, Mohd. Elmagzoub Eltahir, Theophilus I Emeto, Babak Eshrati, Majid Eslami, Zahra Esmaeili, Natalia Fabin, Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe, Omotayo Francis Fagbule, Luca Falzone, Mohammad Fareed, Carla Sofia e Sá Farinha, MoezAlIslam Ezzat Mahmoud Faris, Andre Faro, Kiana Fasihi, Ali Fatehizadeh, Nelsensius Klau Fauk, Timur Fazylov, Valery L Feigin, Ginenus Fekadu, Xiaoqi Feng, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Pietro Ferrara, Nuno Ferreira, Belete Sewasew Firew, Florian Fischer, Ida Fitriana, Joanne Flavel, Luisa S Flor, Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan, Kristen Marie Foley, Marco Fonzo, Lisa M Force, Matteo Foschi, Alberto Freitas, Ni Kadek Yuni Fridayani, Kai Glenn Fukutaki, João M Furtado, Blima Fux, Peter Andras Gaal, Muktar A Gadanya, Silvano Gallus, Balasankar Ganesan, Mohammad Arfat Ganiyani, Rupesh K Gautam, Tilaye Gebru Gebi, Miglas W Gebregergis, Mesfin Gebrehiwot, Lemma Getacher, Genanew K A Getahun, Peter W Gething, Delaram J Ghadimi, Fataneh Ghadirian, Sadegh Ghafarian, Khalid Yaser Ghailan, MohammadReza Ghasemi, Ghazal Ghasempour Dabaghi, Ramy Mohamed Ghazy, Sama Ghoba, Ehsan Gholami, Ali Gholamrezanezhad, Nasim Gholizadeh, Mahsa Ghorbani, Pooyan Ghorbani Vajargah, Elena Ghotbi, Artyom Urievich Gil, Tiffany K Gill, Alem Girmay, James C Glasbey, Ekaterina Vladimirovna Glushkova, Elena V Gnedovskaya, Laszlo Göbölös, Mohamad Goldust, Pouya Goleij, Davide Golinelli, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Alessandra C Goulart, Mahdi Gouravani, Anmol Goyal, Michal Grivna, Giuseppe Grosso, Giovanni Guarducci, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari, Stefano Guicciardi, Rafael Alves Guimarães, Snigdha Gulati, David Gulisashvili, Damitha Asanga Gunawardane, Cui Guo, Anish Kumar Gupta, Rahul Gupta, Rajeev Gupta, Renu Gupta, Sapna Gupta, Vijai Kumar Gupta, Annie Haakenstad, Najah R Hadi, Nils Haep, Abdul Hafiz, Dariush Haghmorad, Demewoz Haile, Adel Hajj Ali, Ali Hajj Ali, Arvin Haj-Mirzaian, Esam S Halboub, Sebastian Haller, Rabih Halwani, Kanaan Hamagharib Abdullah, Nadia M Hamdy, Rifat Hamoudi, Nasrin Hanifi, Graeme J Hankey, Zaim Anan Haq, Md Rabiul Haque, Harapan Harapan, Arief Hargono, Josep Maria Haro, Ahmed I Hasaballah, S. M. Mahmudul Hasan, Mohammad Hasanian, Md Saquib Hasnain, Amr Hassan, Johannes Haubold, Simon I Hay, Jeffrey J Hebert, Omar E Hegazi, Mohammad Heidari, Mehdi Hemmati, Claire A Henson, Brenda Yuliana Herrera-Serna, Claudiu Herteliu, Majid Heydari, Kamal Hezam, Irma Hidayana, Yuta Hiraike, Nguyen Quoc Hoan, Ramesh Holla, Praveen Hoogar, Nobuyuki Horita, Md Mahbub Hossain, Hassan Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Mihaela Hostiuc, Sorin Hostiuc, Chengxi Hu, Junjie Huang, Michael Hultström, Tsegaye Gebreyes Hundie, Aliza J Hunt, Kiavash Hushmandi, Javid Hussain, M. Azhar Hussain, Nawfal R Hussein, Hong-Han Huynh, Bing-Fang Hwang, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Pulwasha Maria Iftikhar, Adalia I Ikiroma, Paul Chukwudi Ikwegbue, Irena M Ilic, Milena D Ilic, Mustapha Immurana, Mustafa Alhaji Isa, Md. 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Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
No full textRegular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.Research reported in this publication was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; Queensland Department of Health, Australia; UK Department of Health and Social Care; the Norwegian Institute of Public Health; St Jude Children’s Research Hospital; and the New Zealand Ministry of Health. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the funders. The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics granted the researchers access to relevant data in accordance with license number SLN2014-3-170, after subjecting data to processing aiming to preserve the confidentiality of individual data in accordance with the General Statistics Law–2000. The researchers are solely responsible for the conclusions and inferences drawn upon available data. Collection of these data was made possible by USAID under the terms of cooperative agreement GPO-A-00-08-000_D3-00.Peer ReviewedArticle signat per 2000 autors/es: Mohsen Naghavi , Kanyin Liane Ong , Amirali Aali , Hazim S Ababneh , Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abate , Cristiana Abbafati , Rouzbeh Abbasgholizadeh , Mohammadreza Abbasian , Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari , Hedayat Abbastabar , Samar Abd ElHafeez , Michael Abdelmasseh , Sherief Abd-Elsalam , Ahmed Abdelwahab , Mohammad Abdollahi , Mohammad-Amin Abdollahifar , Meriem Abdoun , Deldar Morad Abdulah , Auwal Abdullahi , Mesfin Abebe , Samrawit Shawel Abebe , Aidin Abedi , Kedir Hussein Abegaz , E S Abhilash , Hassan Abidi , Olumide Abiodun , Richard Gyan Aboagye , Hassan Abolhassani , Meysam Abolmaali , Mohamed Abouzid , Girma Beressa Aboye , Lucas Guimarães Abreu , Woldu Aberhe Abrha , Dariush Abtahi , Samir Abu Rumeileh , Hasan Abualruz , Bilyaminu Abubakar , Eman Abu-Gharbieh , Niveen ME Abu-Rmeileh , Salahdein Aburuz , Ahmed Abu-Zaid , Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi , Tadele Girum Adal , Abdu A Adamu , Isaac Yeboah Addo , Giovanni Addolorato , Akindele Olupelumi Adebiyi , Victor Adekanmbi , Abiola Victor Adepoju , Charles Oluwaseun Adetunji , Juliana Bunmi Adetunji , Temitayo Esther Adeyeoluwa , Daniel Adedayo Adeyinka , Olorunsola Israel Adeyomoye , Biruk Adie Adie Admass , Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani , Saryia Adra , Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi , Muhammad Sohail Afzal , Saira Afzal , Suneth Buddhika Agampodi , Pradyumna Agasthi , Manik Aggarwal , Shahin Aghamiri , Feleke Doyore Agide , Antonella Agodi , Anurag Agrawal , Williams Agyemang-Duah , Bright Opoku Ahinkorah , Aqeel Ahmad , Danish Ahmad , Firdos Ahmad , Muayyad M Ahmad , Sajjad Ahmad , Shahzaib Ahmad , Tauseef Ahmad , Keivan Ahmadi , Amir Mahmoud Ahmadzade , Ali Ahmed , Ayman Ahmed , Haroon Ahmed , Luai A Ahmed , Mehrunnisha Sharif Ahmed , Meqdad Saleh Ahmed , Muktar Beshir Ahmed , Syed Anees Ahmed , Marjan Ajami , Budi Aji , Essona Matatom Akara , Hossein Akbarialiabad , Karolina Akinosoglou , Tomi Akinyemiju , Mohammed Ahmed Akkaif , Samuel Akyirem , Hanadi Al Hamad , Syed Mahfuz Al Hasan , Fares Alahdab , Samer O Alalalmeh , Tariq A Alalwan , Ziyad Al-Aly , Khurshid Alam , Manjurul Alam , Noore Alam , Rasmieh Mustafa Al-amer , Fahad Mashhour Alanezi , Turki M Alanzi , Sayer Al-Azzam , Almaza Albakri , Mohammed Albashtawy , Mohammad T AlBataineh , Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde-Rabanal , Khalifah A Aldawsari , Wafa A Aldhaleei , Robert W Aldridge , Haileselasie Berhane Alema , Mulubirhan Assefa Alemayohu , Sharifullah Alemi , Yihun Mulugeta Alemu , Adel Ali Saeed Al-Gheethi , Khalid F Alhabib , Fadwa Alhalaiqa Naji Alhalaiqa , Mohammed Khaled Al-Hanawi , Abid Ali , Amjad Ali , Liaqat Ali , Mohammed Usman Ali , Rafat Ali , Shahid Ali , Syed Shujait Shujait Ali , Gianfranco Alicandro , Sheikh Mohammad Alif , Reyhaneh Alikhani , Yousef Alimohamadi , Ahmednur Adem Aliyi , Mohammad A M Aljasir , Syed Mohamed Aljunid , François Alla , Peter Allebeck , Sabah Al-Marwani , Sadeq Ali Ali Al-Maweri , Joseph Uy Almazan , Hesham M Al-Mekhlafi , Louay Almidani , Omar Almidani , Mahmoud A Alomari , Basem Al-Omari , Jordi Alonso , Jaber S Alqahtani , Shehabaldin Alqalyoobi , Ahmed Yaseen Alqutaibi , Salman Khalifah Al-Sabah , Zaid Altaany , Awais Altaf , Jaffar A Al-Tawfiq , Khalid A Altirkawi , Deborah Oyine Aluh , Nelson Alvis-Guzman , Hassan Alwafi , Yaser Mohammed Al-Worafi , Hany Aly , Safwat Aly , Karem H Alzoubi , Reza Amani , Azmeraw T Amare , Prince M Amegbor , Edward Kwabena Ameyaw , Tarek Tawfik Amin , Alireza Amindarolzarbi , Sohrab Amiri , Mohammad Hosein Amirzade-Iranaq , Hubert Amu , Dickson A Amugsi , Ganiyu Adeniyi Amusa , Robert Ancuceanu , Deanna Anderlini , David B Anderson , Pedro Prata Andrade , Catalina Liliana Andrei , Tudorel Andrei , Colin Angus , Abhishek Anil , Sneha Anil , Amir Anoushiravani , Hossein Ansari , Ansariadi Ansariadi , Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam , Catherine M Antony , Ernoiz Antriyandarti , Davood Anvari , Saeid Anvari , Saleha Anwar , Sumadi Lukman Anwar , Razique Anwer , Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor , Muhammad Aqeel , Juan Pablo Arab , Jalal Arabloo , Mosab Arafat , Aleksandr Y Aravkin , Demelash Areda , Abdulfatai Aremu , Olatunde Aremu , Hany Ariffin , Mesay Arkew , Benedetta Armocida , Michael Benjamin Arndt , Johan Ärnlöv , Mahwish Arooj , Anton A Artamonov , Judie Arulappan , Raphael Taiwo Aruleba , Ashokan Arumugam , Malke Asaad , Mohsen Asadi-Lari , Akeza Awealom Asgedom , Mona Asghariahmadabad , Mohammad Asghari-Jafarabadi , Muhammad Ashraf , Armin Aslani , Thomas Astell-Burt , Mohammad Athar , Seyyed Shamsadin Athari , Bantalem Tilaye Tilaye Atinafu , Habtamu Wondmagegn Atlaw , Prince Atorkey , Maha Moh'd Wahbi Atout , Alok Atreya , Avinash Aujayeb , Marcel Ausloos , Abolfazl Avan , Atalel Fentahun Awedew , Amlaku Mulat Aweke , Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla , Haleh Ayatollahi , Jose L Ayuso-Mateos , Seyed Mohammad Ayyoubzadeh , Sina Azadnajafabad , Rui M S Azevedo , Ahmed Y Azzam , Darshan B B , Abraham Samuel Babu , Muhammad Badar , Ashish D Badiye , Soroush Baghdadi , Nasser Bagheri , Sara Bagherieh , Sulaiman Bah , Saeed Bahadorikhalili , Najmeh Bahmanziari , Ruhai Bai , Atif Amin Baig , Jennifer L Baker , Abdulaziz T Bako , Ravleen Kaur Bakshi , Senthilkumar Balakrishnan , Madhan Balasubramanian , Ovidiu Constantin Baltatu , Kiran Bam , Maciej Banach , Soham Bandyopadhyay , Palash Chandra Banik , Hansi Bansal , Kannu Bansal , Franca Barbic , Martina Barchitta , Mainak Bardhan , Erfan Bardideh , Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo , Till Winfried Bärnighausen , Francesco Barone-Adesi , Hiba Jawdat Barqawi , Lope H Barrero , Amadou Barrow , Sandra Barteit , Lingkan Barua , Zarrin Basharat , Azadeh Bashiri , Afisu Basiru , Pritish Baskaran , Buddha Basnyat , Quique Bassat , João Diogo Basso , Ann V L Basting , Sanjay Basu , Kavita Batra , Bernhard T Baune , Mohsen Bayati , Nebiyou Simegnew Bayileyegn , Thomas Beaney , Neeraj Bedi , Massimiliano Beghi , Emad Behboudi , Priyamadhaba Behera , Amir Hossein Behnoush , Masoud Behzadifar , Maryam Beiranvand , Diana Fernanda Bejarano Ramirez , Yannick Béjot , Sefealem Assefa Belay , Chalie Mulu Belete , Michelle L Bell , Muhammad Bashir Bello , Olorunjuwon Omolaja Bello , Luis Belo , Apostolos Beloukas , Rose Grace Bender , Isabela M Bensenor , Azizullah Beran , Zombor Berezvai , Alemshet Yirga Berhie , Betyna N Berice , Robert S Bernstein , Gregory J Bertolacci , Paulo J G Bettencourt , Kebede A Beyene , Devidas S Bhagat , Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula , Neeraj Bhala , Ashish Bhalla , Dinesh Bhandari , Kayleigh Bhangdia , Nikha Bhardwaj , Pankaj Bhardwaj , Prarthna V Bhardwaj , Ashish Bhargava , Sonu Bhaskar , Vivek Bhat , Gurjit Kaur Bhatti , Jasvinder Singh Bhatti , Manpreet S Bhatti , Rajbir Bhatti , Zulfiqar A Bhutta , Boris Bikbov , Jessica Devin Bishai , Catherine Bisignano , Francesca Bisulli , Atanu Biswas , Bijit Biswas , Saeid Bitaraf , Bikes Destaw Bitew , Veera R Bitra , Tone Bjørge , Micheal Kofi Boachie , Mary Sefa Boampong , Anca Vasilica Bobirca , Virginia Bodolica , Aadam Olalekan Bodunrin , Eyob Ketema Bogale , Kassawmar Angaw Bogale , Somayeh Bohlouli , Obasanjo Afolabi Bolarinwa , Archith Boloor , Milad Bonakdar Hashemi , Aime Bonny , Kaustubh Bora , Berrak Bora Basara , Hamed Borhany , Arturo Borzutzky , Souad Bouaoud , Antoine Boustany , Christopher Boxe , Edward J Boyko , Oliver J Brady , Dejana Braithwaite , Luisa C Brant , Michael Brauer , Alexandra Brazinova , Javier Brazo-Sayavera , Nicholas J K Breitborde , Susanne Breitner , Hermann Brenner , Andrey Nikolaevich Briko , Nikolay Ivanovich Briko , Gabrielle Britton , Julie Brown , Traolach Brugha , Norma B Bulamu , Lemma N Bulto , Danilo Buonsenso , Richard A Burns , Reinhard Busse , Yasser Bustanji , Nadeem Shafique Butt , Zahid A Butt , Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos , Daniela Calina , Luis Alberto Cámera , Luciana Aparecida Campos , Ismael R Campos-Nonato , Chao Cao , Yin Cao , Angelo Capodici , Rosario Cárdenas , Sinclair Carr , Giulia Carreras , Juan J Carrero , Andrea Carugno , Cristina G Carvalheiro , Felix Carvalho , Márcia Carvalho , Joao Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia , Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela , Giulio Castelpietra , Ferrán Catalá-López , Alberico L Catapano , Maria Sofia Cattaruzza , Christopher R Cederroth , Luca Cegolon , Francieli Cembranel , Muthia Cenderadewi , Kelly M Cercy , Ester Cerin , Muge Cevik , Joshua Chadwick , Yaacoub Chahine , Chiranjib Chakraborty , Promit Ananyo Chakraborty , Jeffrey Shi Kai Chan , Raymond N C Chan , Rama Mohan Chandika , Eeshwar K Chandrasekar , Chin-Kuo Chang , Jung-Chen Chang , Gashaw Sisay Chanie , Periklis Charalampous , Vijay Kumar Chattu , Pankaj Chaturvedi , Victoria Chatzimavridou-Grigoriadou , Akhilanand Chaurasia , Angela W Chen , An-Tian Chen , Catherine S Chen , Haowei Chen , Meng Xuan Chen , Simiao Chen , Ching-Yu Cheng , Esther T W Cheng , Nicolas Cherbuin , Wondimye Ashenafi Cheru , Ju-Huei Chien , Odgerel Chimed-Ochir , Ritesh Chimoriya , Patrick R Ching , Jesus Lorenzo Chirinos-Caceres , Abdulaal Chitheer , William C S Cho , Bryan Chong , Hitesh Chopra , Sonali Gajanan Choudhari , Rajiv Chowdhury , Devasahayam J Christopher , Isaac Sunday Chukwu , Eric Chung , Erin Chung , Eunice Chung , Sheng-Chia Chung , Muhammad Chutiyami , Zinhle Cindi , Iolanda Cioffi , Mareli M Claassens , Rafael M Claro , Kaleb Coberly , Rebecca M Cogen , Alyssa Columbus , Haley Comfort , Joao Conde , Samuele Cortese , Paolo Angelo Cortesi , Vera Marisa Costa , Simona Costanzo , Ewerton Cousin , Rosa A S Couto , Richard G Cowden , Kenneth Michael Cramer , Michael H Criqui , Natália Cruz-Martins , Silvia Magali Cuadra-Hernández , Garland T Culbreth , Patricia Cullen , Matthew Cunningham , Maria paula Curado , Sriharsha Dadana , Omid Dadras , Siyu Dai , Xiaochen Dai , Zhaoli Dai , Lachlan L Dalli , Giovanni Damiani , Jiregna Darega Gela , Jai K Das , Saswati Das , Subasish Das , Ana Maria Dascalu , Nihar Ranjan Dash , Mohsen Dashti , Anna Dastiridou , Gail Davey , Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes , Nicole Davis Weaver , Kairat Davletov , Diego De Leo , Katie de Luca , Aklilu Tamire Debele , Shayom Debopadhaya , Louisa Degenhardt , Azizallah Dehghan , Lee Deitesfeld , Cristian Del Bo' , Ivan Delgado-Enciso , Berecha Hundessa Demessa , Andreas K Demetriades , Ke Deng , Xinlei Deng , Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez , Niloofar Deravi , Nebiyu Dereje , Nikolaos Dervenis , Emina Dervišević , Don C Des Jarlais , Hardik Dineshbhai Desai , Rupak Desai , Vinoth Gnana Chellaiyan Devanbu , Syed Masudur Rahman Dewan , Arkadeep Dhali , Kuldeep Dhama , Meghnath Dhimal , Sameer Dhingra , Vishal R Dhulipala , Diana Dias da Silva , Daniel Diaz , Michael J Diaz , Adriana Dima , Delaney D Ding , Huanghe Ding , Ricardo Jorge Dinis-Oliveira , M Ashworth Dirac , Shirin Djalalinia , Thao Huynh Phuong Do , Camila Bruneli do Prado , Saeid Doaei , Masoud Dodangeh , Milad Dodangeh , Sushil Dohare , Klara Georgieva Dokova , Christiane Dolecek , Regina-Mae Villanueva Dominguez , Wanyue Dong , Deepa Dongarwar , Mario D'Oria , Fariba Dorostkar , E Ray Dorsey , Wendel Mombaque dos Santos , Rajkumar Doshi , Leila Doshmangir , Robert Kokou Dowou , Tim Robert Driscoll , Haneil Larson Dsouza , Viola Dsouza , Mi Du , John Dube , Bruce B Duncan , Andre Rodrigues Duraes , Senbagam Duraisamy , Oyewole Christopher Durojaiye , Laura Dwyer-Lindgren , Paulina Agnieszka Dzianach , Arkadiusz Marian Dziedzic , Abdel Rahman E'mar , Ejemai Eboreime , Alireza Ebrahimi , Chidiebere Peter Echieh , Hisham Atan Edinur , David Edvardsson , Kristina Edvardsson , Defi Efendi , Ferry Efendi , Diyan Ermawan Effendi , Terje Andreas Eikemo , Ebrahim Eini , Michael Ekholuenetale , Temitope Cyrus Ekundayo , Iman El Sayed , Iffat Elbarazi , Teshome Bekele Elema , Noha Mousaad Elemam , Frank J Elgar , Islam Y Elgendy , Ghada Metwally Tawfik ElGohary , Hala Rashad Elhabashy , Muhammed Elhadi , Waseem El-Huneidi , Legesse Tesfaye Elilo , Omar Abdelsadek Abdou Elmeligy , Mohamed A Elmonem , Mohammed Elshaer , Ibrahim Elsohaby , Theophilus I Emeto , Luchuo Engelbert Bain , Ryenchindorj Erkhembayar , Christopher Imokhuede Esezobor , Babak Eshrati , Sharareh Eskandarieh , Juan Espinosa-Montero , Habtamu Esubalew , Farshid Etaee , Natalia Fabin , Adewale Oluwaseun Fadaka , Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe , Ayesha Fahim , Saman Fahimi , Aliasghar Fakhri-Demeshghieh , Luca Falzone , Mohammad Fareed , Carla Sofia e Sá Farinha , MoezAlIslam Ezzat Mahmoud Faris , Pawan Sirwan Faris , Andre Faro , Abidemi Omolara Fasanmi , Ali Fatehizadeh , Hamed Fattahi , Nelsensius Klau Fauk , Pooria Fazeli , Valery L Feigin , Alireza Feizkhah , Ginenus Fekadu , Xiaoru Feng , Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad , Abdullah Hamid Feroze , Daniela Ferrante , Alize J Ferrari , Nuno Ferreira , Getahun Fetensa , Bikila Regassa Feyisa , Irina Filip , Florian Fischer , Joanne Flavel , David Flood , Bobirca Teodor Florin , Nataliya A Foigt , Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan , Artem Alekseevich Fomenkov , Behzad Foroutan , Masoud Foroutan , Ingeborg Forthun , Daniela Fortuna , Matteo Foschi , Kayode Raphael Fowobaje , Kate Louise Francis , Richard Charles Franklin , Alberto Freitas , Joseph Friedman , Sara D Friedman , Takeshi Fukumoto , John E Fuller , Blima Fux , Peter Andras Gaal , Muktar A Gadanya , Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane , Santosh Gaihre , Emmanuela Gakidou , Yaseen Galali , Natalie C Galles , Silvano Gallus , Mandukhai Ganbat , Aravind P Gandhi , Balasankar Ganesan , Mohammad Arfat Ganiyani , MA Garcia-Gordillo , William M Gardner , Jalaj Garg , Naval Garg , Rupesh K Gautam , Semiu Olatunde Gbadamosi , Tilaye Gebru Gebi , Miglas W Gebregergis , Mesfin Gebrehiwot , Teferi Gebru Gebremeskel , Simona Roxana Georgescu , Tamirat Getachew , Peter W Gething , Molla Getie , Keyghobad Ghadiri , Sulmaz Ghahramani , Khalid Yaser Ghailan , Mohammad-Reza Ghasemi , Ghazal Ghasempour Dabaghi , Afsaneh Ghasemzadeh , Ahmad Ghashghaee , Fariba Ghassemi , Ramy Mohamed Ghazy , Ajnish Ghimire , Sama Ghoba , Maryam Gholamalizadeh , Asadollah Gholamian , Ali Gholamrezanezhad , Nasim Gholizadeh , Mahsa Ghorbani , Pooyan Ghorbani Vajargah , Aloke Gopal Ghoshal , Paramjit Singh Gill , Tiffany K Gill , Richard F Gillum , Themba G Ginindza , Alem Girmay , James C Glasbey , Elena V Gnedovskaya , Laszlo Göbölös , Myron Anthony Godinho , Amit Goel , Ali Golchin , Mohamad Goldust , Mahaveer Golechha , Pouya Goleij , Nelson G M Gomes , Philimon N Gona , Sameer Vali Gopalani , Giuseppe Gorini , Houman Goudarzi , Alessandra C Goulart , Bárbara Niegia Garcia Goulart , Anmol Goyal , Ayman Grada , Simon Matthew Graham , Michal Grivna , Giuseppe Grosso , Shi-Yang Guan , Giovanni Guarducci , Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari , Mesay Dechasa Gudeta , Avirup Guha , Stefano Guicciardi , Rafael Alves Guimarães , Snigdha Gulati , Damitha Asanga Gunawardane , Sasidhar Gunturu , Cui Guo , Anish Kumar Gupta , Bhawna Gupta , Manoj Kumar Gupta , Mohak Gupta , Rajat Das Gupta , Rajeev Gupta , Sapna Gupta , Veer Bala Gupta , Vijai Kumar Gupta , Vivek Kumar Gupta , Lami Gurmessa , Reyna Alma Gutiérrez , Farrokh Habibzadeh , Parham Habibzadeh , Rasool Haddadi , Mostafa Hadei , Najah R Hadi , Nils Haep , Nima Hafezi-Nejad , Alemayehu Hailu , Arvin Haj-Mirzaian , Esam S Halboub , Brian J Hall , Sebastian Haller , Rabih Halwani , Randah R Hamadeh , Sajid Hameed , Samer Hamidi , Erin B Hamilton , Chieh Han , Qiuxia Han , Asif Hanif , Nasrin Hanifi , Graeme J Hankey , Fahad Hanna , Md Abdul Hannan , Md Nuruzzaman Haque , Harapan Harapan , Arief Hargono , Josep Maria Haro , Ahmed I Hasaballah , Ikramul Hasan , M Tasdik Hasan , Hamidreza Hasani , Mohammad Hasanian , Abdiwahab Hashi , Md Saquib Hasnain , Ikrama Hassan , Soheil Hassanipour , Hadi Hassankhani , Johannes Haubold , Rasmus J Havmoeller , Simon I Hay , Jiawei He , Jeffrey J Hebert , Omar E Hegazi , Golnaz Heidari , Mohammad Heidari , Mahsa Heidari-Foroozan , Bartosz Helfer , Delia Hendrie , Brenda Yuliana Herrera-Serna , Claudiu Herteliu , Hamed Hesami , Kamal Hezam , Catherine L Hill , Yuta Hiraike , Ramesh Holla , Nobuyuki Horita , Md Mahbub Hossain , Sahadat Hossain , Mohammad-Salar Hosseini , Hassan Hosseinzadeh , Mehdi Hosseinzadeh , Ahmad Hosseinzadeh Adli , Mihaela Hostiuc , Sorin Hostiuc , Mohamed Hsairi , Vivian Chia-rong Hsieh , Rebecca L Hsu , Chengxi Hu , Junjie Huang , Michael Hultström , Ayesha Humayun , Tsegaye Gebreyes Hundie , Javid Hussain , M Azhar Hussain , Nawfal R Hussein , Foziya Mohammed Hussien , Hong-Han Huynh , Bing-Fang Hwang , Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye , Khalid S Ibrahim , Pulwasha Maria Iftikhar , Desta Ijo , Adalia I Ikiroma , Kevin S Ikuta , Paul Chukwudi Ikwegbue , Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi , Irena M Ilic , Milena D Ilic , Mohammad Tarique Imam , Mustapha Immurana , Sumant Inamdar , Endang Indriasih , Muhammad Iqhrammullah , Arnaud Iradukunda , Kenneth Chukwuemeka Iregbu , Md Rabiul Islam , Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam , Farhad Islami , Faisal Ismail , Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail , Hiroyasu Iso , Gaetano Isola , Masao Iwagami , Chidozie C D Iwu , Ihoghosa Osamuyi Iyamu , Mahalaxmi Iyer , Linda Merin J , Jalil Jaafari , Louis Jacob , Kathryn H Jacobsen , Farhad Jadidi-Niaragh , Morteza Jafarinia , Abdollah Jafarzadeh , Khushleen Jaggi , Kasra Jahankhani , Nader Jahanmehr , Haitham Jahrami , Nityanand Jain , Ammar Abdulrahman Jairoun , Abhishek Jaiswal , Elham Jamshidi , Mark M Janko , Abubakar Ibrahim Jatau , Sabzali Javadov , Tahereh Javaheri , Sathish Kumar Jayapal , Shubha Jayaram , Rime Jebai , Sun Ha Jee , Jayakumar Jeganathan , Anil K Jha , Ravi Prakash Jha , Heng Jiang , Yingzhao Jin , Olatunji Johnson , Mohammad Jokar , Jost B Jonas , Tamas Joo , Abel Joseph , Nitin Joseph , Charity Ehimwenma Joshua , Grace Joshy , Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak , Mikk Jürisson , Vaishali K , Billingsley Kaambwa , Ali Kabir , Zubair Kabir , Vidya Kadashetti , Dler Hussein Kadir , Rizwan Kalani , Laleh R Kalankesh , Leila R Kalankesh , Feroze Kaliyadan , Sanjay Kalra , Vineet Kumar Kamal , Sivesh Kathir Kamarajah , Rajesh Kamath , Zahra Kamiab , Naser Kamyari , Thanigaivelan Kanagasabai , Tanuj Kanchan , Himal Kandel , Arun R Kanmanthareddy , Edmund Wedam Kanmiki , Kehinde Kazeem Kanmodi , Suthanthira Kannan S , Sushil Kumar Kansal , Rami S Kantar , Neeti Kapoor , Mehrdad Karajizadeh , Shama D Karanth , Reema A Karasneh , Ibraheem M Karaye , André Karch , Asima Karim , Salah Eddin Karimi , Arman Karimi Behnagh , Faizan Zaffar Kashoo , Qalandar Hussein Abdulkarim Kasnazani , Hengameh Kasraei , Nicholas J Kassebaum , Molly B Kassel , Joonas H Kauppila , Navjot Kaur , Norito Kawakami , Gbenga A Kayode , Foad Kazemi , Sina Kazemian , Tahseen Haider Kazmi , Getu Mosisa Kebebew , Adera Debella Kebede , Fassikaw Kebede , Tibebeselassie S Keflie , Peter Njenga Keiyoro , Cathleen Keller , Jaimon Terence Kelly , John H Kempen , Jessica A Kerr , Emmanuelle Kesse-Guyot , Himanshu Khajuria , Amirmohammad Khalaji , Nauman Khalid , Anees Ahmed Khalil , Alireza Khalilian , Faham Khamesipour , Ajmal Khan , Asaduzzaman Khan , Gulfaraz Khan , Ikramullah Khan , Imteyaz A Khan , M Nuruzzaman Khan , Maseer Khan , Mohammad Jobair Khan , Moien AB Khan , Zeeshan Ali Khan , Mahammed Ziauddin Khan suheb , Shaghayegh Khanmohammadi , Khaled Khatab , Fatemeh Khatami , Haitham Khatatbeh , Moawiah Mohammad Khatatbeh , Armin Khavandegar , Hamid Reza Khayat Kashani , Feriha Fatima Khidri , Elaheh Khodadoust , Mohammad Khorgamphar , Moein Khormali , Zahra Khorrami , Ahmad Khosravi , Mohammad Ali Khosravi , Zemene Demelash Kifle , Grace Kim , Jihee Kim , Kwanghyun Kim , Min Seo Kim , Yun Jin Kim , Ruth W Kimokoti , Kasey E Kinzel , Adnan Kisa , Sezer Kisa , Desmond Klu , Ann Kristin Skrindo Knudsen , Jonathan M Kocarnik , Sonali Kochhar , Timea Kocsis , David S Q Koh , Ali-Asghar Kolahi , Kairi Kolves , Farzad Kompani , Gerbrand Koren , Soewarta Kosen , Karel Kostev , Parvaiz A Koul , Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana , Kewal Krishan , Hare Krishna , Varun Krishna , Vijay Krishnamoorthy , Yuvaraj Krishnamoorthy , Kris J Krohn , Barthelemy Kuate Defo , Burcu Kucuk Bicer , Md Abdul Kuddus , Mohammed Kuddus , Ilari Kuitunen , Mukhtar Kulimbet , Vishnutheertha Kulkarni , Akshay Kumar , Ashish Kumar , Harish Kumar , Manasi Kumar , Rakesh Kumar , Madhulata Kumari , Fantahun Tarekegn Kumie , Satyajit Kundu , Om P Kurmi , Asep Kusnali , Dian
Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
No full textBackground Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods 22¿223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30¿763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31¿642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.Research reported in this publication was supported by the Gates Foundation, UK Department of Health and Social Care, the Norwegian Institute of Public Health, and the New Zealand Ministry of Health. The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics granted the researchers access to relevant data in accordance with license no. SLN2019-8-64 and SLN2014-3-170, after subjecting data to processing aiming to preserve the confidentiality of individual data in accordance with the General Statistics Law-2000.Peer ReviewedArticle signat per 1836 autors/es: Austin E Schumacher, Hmwe Hmwe Kyu, Amirali Aali, Cristiana Abbafati, Jaffar Abbas, Rouzbeh Abbasgholizadeh, Madineh Akram Abbasi, Mohammadreza Abbasian, Samar Abd ElHafeez, Michael Abdelmasseh, Sherief Abd-Elsalam, Ahmed Abdelwahab, Mohammad Abdollahi, Meriem Abdoun, Auwal Abdullahi, Ame Mehadi Abdurehman, Mesfin Abebe, Aidin Abedi, Armita Abedi, Tadesse M Abegaz, Roberto Ariel Abeldaño Zuñiga, E S Abhilash, Olugbenga Olusola Abiodun, Richard Gyan Aboagye, Hassan Abolhassani, Mohamed Abouzid, Lucas Guimarães Abreu, Woldu Aberhe Abrha, Michael R M Abrigo, Dariush Abtahi, Samir Abu Rumeileh, Niveen ME Abu-Rmeileh, Salahdein Aburuz, Ahmed Abu-Zaid, Juan Manuel Acuna, Tim Adair, Isaac Yeboah Addo, Oladimeji M Adebayo, Oyelola A Adegboye, Victor Adekanmbi, Bashir Aden, Abiola Victor Adepoju, Charles Oluwaseun Adetunji, Temitayo Esther Adeyeoluwa, Olorunsola Israel Adeyomoye, Rishan Adha, Amin Adibi, Wirawan Adikusuma, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani, Saryia Adra, Abel Afework, Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi, Ali Afraz, Shadi Afyouni, Saira Afzal, Pradyumna Agasthi, Shahin Aghamiri, Antonella Agodi, Williams Agyemang-Duah, Bright Opoku Ahinkorah, Aqeel Ahmad, Danish Ahmad, Firdos Ahmad, Muayyad M Ahmad, Tauseef Ahmad, Keivan Ahmadi, Amir Mahmoud Ahmadzade, Mohadese Ahmadzade, Ayman Ahmed, Haroon Ahmed, Luai A Ahmed, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Syed Anees Ahmed, Marjan Ajami, Budi Aji, Olufemi Ajumobi, Gizachew Taddesse Akalu, Essona Matatom Akara, Karolina Akinosoglou, Sreelatha Akkala, Samuel Akyirem, Hanadi Al Hamad, Syed Mahfuz Al Hasan, Ammar Al Homsi, Mohammad Al Qadire, Moein Ala, Timothy Olukunle Aladelusi, Tareq Mohammed Ali AL-Ahdal, Samer O Alalalmeh, Ziyad Al-Aly, Khurshid Alam, Manjurul Alam, Zufishan Alam, Rasmieh Mustafa Al-amer, Fahad Mashhour Alanezi, Turki M Alanzi, Mohammed Albashtawy, Mohammad T AlBataineh, Robert W Aldridge, Sharifullah Alemi, Ayman Al-Eyadhy, Adel Ali Saeed Al-Gheethi, Khalid F Alhabib, Fadwa Alhalaiqa Naji Alhalaiqa, Mohammed Khaled Al-Hanawi, Abid Ali, Akhtar Ali, Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali, Hassam Ali, Mohammed Usman Ali, Rafat Ali, Syed Shujait Shujait Ali, Zahid Ali, Shohreh Alian Samakkhah, Gianfranco Alicandro, Sheikh Mohammad Alif, Mohammad Aligol, Rasoul Alimi, Ahmednur Adem Aliyi, Adel Al-Jumaily, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Wael Almahmeed, Sabah Al-Marwani, Sadeq Ali Ali Al-Maweri, Joseph Uy Almazan, Hesham M Al-Mekhlafi, Omar Almidani, Mahmoud A Alomari, Nivaldo Alonso, Jaber S Alqahtani, Ahmed Yaseen Alqutaibi, Salman Khalifah Al-Sabah, Awais Altaf, Jaffar A Al-Tawfiq, Khalid A Altirkawi, Farrukh Jawad Alvi, Hassan Alwafi, Yaser Mohammed Al-Worafi, Hany Aly, Karem H Alzoubi, Azmeraw T Amare, Edward Kwabena Ameyaw, Abebe Feyissa Amhare, Tarek Tawfik Amin, Alireza Amindarolzarbi, Javad Aminian Dehkordi, Sohrab Amiri, Hubert Amu, Dickson A Amugsi, Jimoh Amzat, Robert Ancuceanu, Deanna Anderlini, Pedro Prata Andrade, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Tudorel Andrei, Dhanalakshmi Angappan, Abhishek Anil, Afifa Anjum, Catherine M Antony, Ernoiz Antriyandarti, Iyadunni Adesola Anuoluwa, Sumadi Lukman Anwar, Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor, Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah, Muhammad Aqeel, Jalal Arabloo, Razman Arabzadeh Bahri, Morteza Arab-Zozani, Mosab Arafat, Ana Margarida Araújo, Aleksandr Y Aravkin, Abdulfatai Aremu, Hany Ariffin, Timur Aripov, Benedetta Armocida, Mahwish Arooj, Anton A Artamonov, Kurnia Dwi Artanti, Judie Arulappan, Idowu Thomas Aruleba, Raphael Taiwo Aruleba, Ashokan Arumugam, Malke Asaad, Saeed Asgary, Mubarek Yesse Ashemo, Muhammad Ashraf, Marvellous O Asika, Seyyed Shamsadin Athari, Maha Moh’d Wahbi Atout, Alok Atreya, Sameh Attia, Avinash Aujayeb, Abolfazl Avan, Adedapo Wasiu Awotidebe, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Martin Amogre Ayanore, Getnet Melaku 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Khan, Moien AB Khan, Taimoor Khan, Mahammed Ziauddin Khan suheb, Shaghayegh Khanmohammadi, Khaled Khatab, Fatemeh Khatami, Armin Khavandegar, Hamid Reza Khayat Kashani, Khalid A Kheirallah, Feriha Fatima Khidri, Elaheh Khodadoust, Moein Khormali, Mahmood Khosrowjerdi, Jagdish Khubchandani, Helda Khusun, Zemene Demelash Kifle, Grace Kim, Jihee Kim, Ruth W Kimokoti, Kasey E Kinzel, Girmay Tsegay Kiross, Adnan Kisa, Sezer Kisa, Juniper Boroka Kiss, Mika Kivimäki, Desmond Klu, Ann Kristin Skrindo Knudsen, Ali-Asghar Kolahi, Farzad Kompani, Gerbrand Koren, Soewarta Kosen, Karel Kostev, Ashwin Laxmikant Kotnis, Parvaiz A Koul, Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana, Ai Koyanagi, Michael A Kravchenko, Kewal Krishan, Hare Krishna, Vijay Krishnamoorthy, Yuvaraj Krishnamoorthy, Kris J Krohn, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, Connor M Kubeisy, Burcu Kucuk Bicer, Md Abdul Kuddus, Mohammed Kuddus, Ilari Kuitunen, Omar Kujan, Mukhtar Kulimbet, Vishnutheertha Kulkarni, Ashish Kumar, Harish Kumar, Nithin Kumar, 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Lin, Vasileios-Arsenios Lioutas, Stefan Listl, Jue Liu, Simin Liu, Xiaofeng Liu, Katherine M Livingstone, Erand Llanaj, Chun-Han Lo, Arianna Maever Loreche, László Lorenzovici, Mojgan Lotfi, Masoud Lotfizadeh, Rafael Lozano, Jailos Lubinda, Giancarlo Lucchetti, Alessandra Lugo, Raimundas Lunevicius, Jianing Ma, Stefan Ma, Zheng Feei Ma, Mahmoud Mabrok, Nikolaos Machairas, Monika Machoy, Christian Madsen, Javier A Magaña Gómez, Azzam A Maghazachi, Sandeep B Maharaj, Preeti Maharjan, Soleiman Mahjoub, Mansour Adam Mahmoud, Elham Mahmoudi, Morteza Mahmoudi, Omar Mohamed Makram, Jeadran N Malagón-Rojas, Elaheh Malakan Rad, Reza Malekzadeh, Armaan K Malhotra, Kashish Malho
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