91 research outputs found
Negative Binomial Regression in Underdispersion(Case Study: Neonatal Mortality in Jambi City)
Get PDFNeonatalis is birth before 28 days of a baby. Factors that are considered to affect neonatal mortality include the number of visits in the 1st and 3 rd trimester, the number of pregnant women receiving Tetanus Diptheria Immunization, the estimated number of neonatal infants with complications, the number of infants receiving Hepatitis B Immunization for less than 24 hours, the number of infants receiving BCG Immunization and number of 1 and 3 neonatal visits. Neonatal mortality is still very rare so that the right analysis is used, namely Negative Binomial Regression. This research aim to investigate negative binomial regression in underdipersion on neonatal mortality at Jambi City. These two regression methods are specifically used for Poisson distributed data because they are rare. The stages of the research that will be carried out are the Poisson distribution test and the equidispersion assumption, parameter estimation, model feasibility test, and selection of the best model. The results obtained that the best model without the variable number of 3rd-trimester visits or without the variable number of infants who received BCG immunization with AIC was 36.3
Implementasi Metode Exponensial Smooting dalam Memprediksi Harga Logam Mulia Emas Optimasi Abadi (Eoa Gold)
No full textPrecious metals are one of the best investment choices and are currently still the prima donna in people\u27s lives. The development of the times has caused precious metals, especially bars, to appear with various brands, one of which is Eoa Gold, which has advantages over other LMs. The price of precious metals always changes from time to time and the demand for it in Indonesia is increasing, so one solution is needed, namely forecasting Gold prices in Indonesia. This aims to find out the price of precious metals that will come. The forecasting method in this study uses the Single Exponential Smoothing method which can perfect a forecasting result by smoothing past values which function to produce forecasting values. The data used is time series data from January 1 2022 to December 31 2022 for 12 months. Then, in this study, the SES analysis uses the parameters dan ,, then evaluates the error value of the forecasting results with the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The lowest MAPE results obtained were when the parameter for all Eoa Gold sizes with values of 0,44%, 0,43%, 3,74% and 0,51%. Based on the MAPE value criteria, it is concluded that the Single exponential smoothing method is very accurate in forecasting the price of Eoa Gold.Logam mulia merupakan salah satu pilihan investasi terbaik dan saat ini masih menjadi primadona dalam kehidupan masyarakat. Perkembangan zaman menyebabkan logam mulia khususnya batangan semakin marak bermunculan dengan berbagai merek salah satunya adalah Eoa Gold dengan memiliki kelebihan dibandingkan Logam Mulia lainnya. Harga logam mulia selalu mengalami perubahan dari waktu ke waktu dan permintaannya pun di Indonesia semakin meningkat maka diperlukan salah satu penyelesaian yaitu mengenai peramalan harga emas di Indonesia. Hal Ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui harga logam mulia Eoa Gold yang akan mendatang. Metode peramalan dalam penelitian ini menggunakan metode Single Exponential Smoothing yang dapat menyempurnakan suatu hasil peramalan dengan cara penghalusan pada nilai masa lalu yang berfungsi untuk menghasilkan nilai peramalan data yang digunakan adalah data time series dari bulan 1 Januari 2022 - 31 Desember 2022 selama 12 bulan. Kemudian, dalam penelitian ini analisis SES menggunakan parameter dan , selanjutnya dilakukan evaluasi nilai error terhadap hasil peramalan dengan Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Hasil MAPE terendah yang diperoleh terletak disaat parameter untuk semua ukuran Eoa Gold dengan nilai sebesar 0,44%, 0,43%, 3,74% dan 0,51%. Berdasarkan kriteria nilai MAPE maka disimpulkan metode Single exponensial smooting sangat akurat dalam peramalan pada harga Eoa Gold
The Implementasi Algoritma Djikstra untuk Menentukan Rute Terpendek Pengiriman Alat Kesehatan di Dinas Kesehatan Provinsi Jambi
No full textPengantaran alat kesehatan di Dinas Kesehatan Provinsi sering mengalami keterlambatan pengantaran, akibatnya efisiensi waktu sangat berpengaruh pada biaya distribusi. Rencana yang tepat diperlukan dengan pengoptimalan jarak agar waktu tempuh akan semakin singkat. Pengoptimalan jarak pengantaran alat kesehatan dapat dioptimalkan dengan pencariaan rute terpendek dengan menggunakan Algoritam Djikstra. Pada penelitian ini dilakukan pencarian rute terpendek untuk pengantaran alat kesehatan Dari Dinas Kesehatan Provinsi Jambi Menuju Dinas Kesehatan Kota Jambi. Jalan yang dilalui dimodelkan dalam graf untuk mencari jarak terpendek untuk sampai dengan tepat waktu pada lokasi tujuan. Akgoritma Djikstra sangat tepat untuk digunakan untuk memetakan jalan dengan pencarian linatsan yang paling pendek. Berdasarkan hasil pencarian rute terpendek dengan menggunakan Algoritma Djikstra, didaptkan jaraknya 8,0 km. Dengan jarak yang harus ditempuh yaitu Dinas Kesehatan Provinsi Jambi- Simpang Bank Indonesia – Simpang 4 Broni – Simpang Kawat – Tugu Keris Siginjai – Dinas Kesehatan Kota Jambi.
Kata Kunci: Algoritam Djikstra, Rute Terpendek, Alat Kesehatan
The impact of the newer knowledge of nutrition: nutrition science and nutrition policy, 1900-1939.
Get PDFIdeas concerning relationships between diet and health in the UK are
traced from the 1904 Comittee on Physical Deterioration to the outbreak
of World War II. Archive material is used to describe the often
conflicting views of the Medical Research Council and the Ministry of
Health and Board of Education concerning the public health applications
of nutrition science. In particular, the work of the Ministry of
Health's first Advisory Comittee on Nutrition, which was appointed in
1931, is reviewed and evaluated. The debate among public healh
practitioners over the nature, cause and extent of the 'nutrition
problem' is documented and the role in this debate of official dietary
guidelines which appeared during the 1930s, is assessed.
The Impact of the Newer Knowledge of Nutrition on welfare feeding policy
Is evaluated in the context of the official promotion of milk feeding in
schools. In particular, Corry Mann's experimental evidence which was
used to endorse this policy, is reconsidered, and it is shown that the
NRC view that the trial was proof of the presence in milk of a "growth
factor" which produced preferential growth efficiency in adequately fed
children , was in error. From a re-evaluation of the evidence it is
suggested that the experiment merely recorded catch-up growth in a group
of poorly nourished children. The view that there existed an extensive
nutritional problem due to poor quality diets is examined and
challenged.
Both dietary survey data and anthropometric evidence are used to present
the case that there was throughout the period studied a widespread
problem of underfeeding among the poor and that intervention strategies
based on the Newer Knowledge were not an appropriate method of dealing
with this problem. This casts doubts on the widely held view that there
was a need for nutrition education and suggests that the problem was one of poverty rather than Ignorance. Disaggregated anthropometric data
located by the author are analysed according to NCHS standards to assess
the prevalence of underfeeding. Significantly higher prevalences of
stunting than low weight-for-age exist in all data sets; this phenomenon
is considered in detail and low weight-for-age is proposed as the
preferred index of malnutrition in 20th Century historical studies.
Attention is drawn to the relevance of these studies for the current
nutrition and public health debate
Analisis Cluster Metode K-Means untuk Indikator Kependudukan pada Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Jambi
Get PDFKependudukan dijelaskan bahwa indikator kependudukan terdiri dari kuantitas yang meliputi jumlah, struktur dan persebaran, lalu kualitas yang meliputi kesehatan, pendudukan, agama, perekonomian dan sosial budaya. Sedangkan dalam komponen kependudukan terdiri dari kelahiran, kematian dan migrasi. Tiga ciri menonjol yang sering digunakan dalam pengelompokan dari kependudukan Indonesia adalah sangat merata, merata dan cukup merata. Metode K-Means merupakan suatu metode pembentukan cluster yang mengelompokkan data ke dalam kelompok-kelompok yang homogen berdasarkan kesamaan atribut dengan menentukan nilai k sebagai jumlah cluster yang ingin dibentuk. Pada tahun 2020 terdapat cluster 1 yang anggotanya terdiri dari 6 kabupaten/kota dan cluster 2 terdapat 5 anggota kabupaten/kota. Proyeksi tahun 2025 terdapat cluster 1 yang anggotanya terdiri dari 5 anggota kabupaten/kota dan cluster 2 terdapat 6 anggota kabupaten/kota. Proyeksi tahun 2030 terdapat cluster 1 yang anggotanya terdiri dari 5 anggota kabupaten/kota, cluster 2 terdapat 6 anggota kabupaten/kota. Anggota cluster 1 pada tahun 2020 adalah Kabupaten/Kota Kerinci, Bungo, Sarolangun, Tebo, Tanjung Jabung Barat dan Tanjung Jabung Timur yang memiliki tingkat indikator kependudukan yang rendah dibanding kabupaten/kota yang lain di Provinsi Jambi
MODELING COOKING OIL PRODUCTION WITH CRUDE PALM OIL (CPO) PRICE USING TRANSFER FUNCTION
Get PDFIndonesia is the largest palm oil producer in the world. However, Indonesia is currently experiencing a significant scarcity of cooking oil for the basic needs of the community. One of the causes of this problem is the high price of crude palm oil (CPO). The price of CPO affects the production of cooking oil produced by the cooking oil industry. CPO prices are released in the form of daily prices in the market which form a time series pattern that affects the production of cooking oil which is also produced daily in the industry. To forecast cooking oil production from CPO prices can be done with a transfer function model. The stages of analysis are forming an ARIMA model, processing input time series whitening, and output time series whitening. Checking white noise by plotting ACF αt, ACF βt. Make a CCF graph and determine the order (r,s,b). Estimate the first parameter of the disturbance series (nt) and identify the disturbance series (nt) in the ARIMA model. Next, perform a diagnostic check of the transfer function model by checking the cross-correlation between Xt & Yt and checking the autocorrelation of Xt and Yt for model feasibility testing. Then make an ACF graph of the transfer function model's residuals to test the model's suitability. The final stage is to select the best model based on the smallest AIC value, ensuring the accuracy of the selected model using MAPE value, and making predictions. As a result, the model for CPO price is an input series variable, and cooking oil production is an output series variable. However, the MAPE result was 100%, indicating that the model is not very accurate for this data. Nevertheless, by ignoring the result and continuing with the forecasting, this model shows that the forecasted values for cooking oil based on CPO price have increased from the form of the model obtained for the time data from 2013 to 2022
Model Project Based Learning pada Mata Kuliah Metode Peramalan
Get PDFPendidikan tinggi memiliki tujuan terhadap capaian kualitas lulusan mahasiswa dalam bentuk sikap, keterampilan umum, keterampilan khusus dan pengetahuan. Pencapaian kualitas lulusan direalisasikan dalam mata kuliah yang diajarkan dalam perkuliahan yang dilaksanakan. Salah satunya dengan mengembangkan capaian pembelajaran mata kuliah melalui penelitian terhadap pembelajaran. Pembelajaran yang dilakukan harus menumbuhkan skill mahasiswa, sehingga pembelajaran yang diadakan berbasis kepada proyek. Pembelajaran dilakukan dengan proyek pada mata kuliah metode peramalan. Metode Peramalan memiliki capaian mata kuliah berupa keahlian dalam analisis data. Mata kuliah ini dapat dikerjakan dalam bentuk proyek pada topik analisis regresi sederhana, regresi berganda dan regresi dummy. Pelaksanaan proyek dikerjakan oleh mahasiswa dalam skema team-based yang dilaksanakan dalam bentuk tim. Kemudian mata kuliah ini juga dilaksanakan dalam bentuk penelitian dan pengembangan yang menghasilkan produk Capaian Pembelajaran Mata Kuliah, Silabus dan Kontrak Perkuliahan, Rencana Pembelajaran Semester, Rencana Tugas Project Mahasiswa atau Lembar Kerja Project Mahasiswa, Lembar Penilaian Hasil Belajar sesuai dengan model pembelajaran berbasis proyek, soal ujian serta rubrik penilaian yang telah di-review. Kemudian hasil evaluasi melalui indikator motivasi belajar dan indikator aktivitas belajar mahasiswa diperoleh bahwa persepsi yang baik terhadap kegiatan model pembelajaran Metode Peramalan menggunakan projek. Hasil angket persepsi tersebut dianalisis dengan uji reliabilitas, didapatkan nilai cronbach’s alpha sebesar 0,799. Nilai ini mengartikan bahwa reliabilitas mata kuliah metode peramalan tinggi. Hal ini menyampaikan bahwa angket persepsi mahasiswa terhadap mata kuliah metode peramalan tinggi
Pengelompokan Provinsi di Indonesia Menggunakan Gaussian Mixture Model Berdasarkan Indikator Kemiskinan
Get PDFPoverty is a multidimensional concept that can not only be seen from an economic perspective, but can also be seen from a social, cultural and political perspective. Poverty is generally expressed as a static concept with the amount of poverty as a description of welfare conditions at a certain time. In reality, poverty has a time period that is never cut off and has a continuous pattern over time. The Indonesian government is committed to efforts to eradicate poverty in order to reduce Indonesia's poverty rate. One way that can be done is by allocating aid to the community. Grouping is carried out by cluster analysis using the Gaussian Mixture Model method with the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. The optimal number of clusters in the Gaussian Mixture Model uses the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) method. Based on the research carried out, the results of the analysis of cluster grouping using the Gaussian Mixture Model method were obtained with the smallest BIC value, namely -397.6876 with a total of 2 clusters
Regresi Data Panel Pada Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Pendapatan Asli Daerah Di Provinsi Jambi
Get PDFTingkat kemandirian daerah sangat bergantung pada potensi pendapatan yang ada di daerah. Salah satu sumber pendapatan daerah adalah pendapatan asli daerah. Rasio pendapatan asli daerah di Provinsi Jambi terhadap pendapatan daerah hanya sebesar 10,34% sementara sebesar 71,74% berasal dari dana perimbangan. Situasi ini menunjukkan bahwa pemerintah di Provinsi Jambi belum mandiri dan masih sangat bergantung kepada pemerintah pusat melalui dana perimbangan. Tahapan analisis yang dilakukan yaitu melakukan estimasi parameter dengan common effect model, fixed effect model dan random effect model. Selanjutnya, uji model regresi dengan menggunakan uji Chow dan uji Hausman. Setelah terpilih model regresinya kemudian lakukan uji asumsi. Apabila asumsi telah terpenuhi maka dilanjutkan dengan uji Goodness of fit yaitu uji kelayakan model dengan uji rasio likelihood dan uji parsial dengan uji t. Hasilnya diperoleh regresi data panel untuk Fixed Effect Model dengan tiga variabel yaitu pengeluaran pemerintah, jumlah wisatawan dan sektor petanian. Nilai koefisien determinasi sebesar 93,45% menunjukkan bahwa pengeluaran pemerintah, jumlah wisatawan dan sektor pertanian mampu menjelaskan pendapatan asli daerah sebesar 93,45% dan sisanya dijelaskan oleh faktor lain di luar model. Nilai koefisien variabel pengeluaran pemerintah bernilai positif sebesar , koefisien dari variabel jumlah wisatawan bernilai negatif yaitu sebesar  dan koefisien variabel sektor pertanian bernilai positif sebesar
Generalized Poisson Regression Type-II at Jambi City Health Office
Get PDFOne statistical analysis is regression analysis. One regression that has the assumption of poisson distribution is poisson regression which has the assumption of poisson distribution. Neonatal deaths are still very rare, so the proper analysis is used, namely Generalized Poisson Regression. This regression method is specifically used for Poissson distributed data. The stages that will be carried out in this research are Poisson distribution test and equidispersion assumption, parameter estimation, model feasibility test and best model selection. Data from the Jambi City Health Office in 2018 showed that the Generalized Poisson Regression regression alleged had a variable number of first trimester visits, the number of pregnant women getting Tetanus Diptheria immunization, the estimated number of neonatal infants with complications, the number of infants receiving Hepatitis B immunization was less than twenty-four hours, the number of infants receiving BCG immunizations
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