1,720,953 research outputs found
Prediksjon av strømpriser i Trondheim ved bruk av maskinlæring og statistisk modellering
Full text linkFormålet med denne oppgaven er å bruke modeller for sekvensiell data til å utføre prediksjoner av norske strømpriser. Ved å ta en grundig undersøkelse av det nordiske energimarkedet får vi et innblikk i relevante faktorer som er med på å påvirke de norske strømprisene. Datasettet som benyttes er bestående av forklaringsvariabler som anses som relevante for fluktuasjonene i kraftmarkedet. Det innebærer meteorologiske faktorer, energiutveksling og makroøkonomiske forhold. Den avhengige variabelen, som representerer fenomenet vi ønsker å prognostisere, er gjennomsnittlig daglig spotpris for prisområdet
NO3 - Trøndelag de siste seks årene.
For å predikere strømprisen i Trøndelag har vi utviklet tre modeller som følger en statistikk tilnærming, samt to modeller ved hjelp av kunstige nevrale nettverk. Den statistiske tilnærmingen består av tre ulike ARIMA modeller, der vi gradvis har inkludert eksogene variabler og sesongmessige svingninger i modelleringen. De kunstige nevrale nettverkene er basert på LSTM nettverk, der antall dager inkludert i predikeringen skiller de to ulike versjonene.
Våre undersøkelser har vist at ingen av modellene presenterer nøyaktige og tilfredsstillende prediksjoner, da samtlige modeller viser begrenset evne til å fange opp de sentrale nyansene i datasettet. Dette påvirkes trolig av lav korrelasjon med forklaringsvariabler vi har identifisert, samt store svingninger i prisene de siste årene. Den fullverdige SARMAX er av høyest kvalitet blant de statistiske modellene. Blant maskinlæringsmodellene er det LSTM modellen som kun inkluderer data fra foregående dag som presterer best. Gjennom en visuell analyse av resultatene, observerer vi at dyplæringsmodellen i større fanger opp variasjonen i svingningene. På den andre siden presterer de statistiske modellene bedre basert på bruk av vurderingsverktøy.The purpose of this thesis is to utilize models for sequential data to forecast Norwegian electricity prices. Through a comprehensive examination of the nordic power market, we got an insight of relevant factors which influence the Norwegian electricity prices. The dataset used consists of explanatory variables deemed relevant for the fluctuations in the power market. That implies meteorological factors, energy exchange and macroeconomic conditions. The dependent variable, which represents the phenomenon we aim to forecast, is the average daily spot price for the price area NO3 - Trøndelag for the last six years.
We have developed three models with a statistical approach, as well as two models by artificial neural network. The statistical approach consists of three ARIMA models, where we have gradually included exogenous variables and seasonality in the modeling. The artificial neural networks are built as LSTM networks, where the amount of days included in the predictions distinguish the different versions from each other.
Our examinations have shown that neither of the models presents accurate and satisfactory predictions, as all models demonstrate limited capability to capture central nuances in the dataset. This is probably due to low correlation with the influence factors we have identified, as well as large fluctuations in price the last couple years. The SARMAX is of the highest quality among the statistical models. The LSTM model which only includes data from the previous day performs the best amid the machine learning models. Through a visual analysis of the results, we observe that the deep learning model more efficiently captures the variation in the fluctuations. Nevertheless, the statistical models perform better based on use of assessment tools
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Full text linkThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
Full text link“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Full text linkWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts
Full text linkWe conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued
use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation
counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more
sophisticated methods
koamabayili/VECTRON-author-checklist: VECTRON author checklist
No full textWe have done our best to complete the author checklist relating to the use of animals in the hut study. Note that the objective for the hut study was to evaluate the IRS treatment applications for residual efficacy against Anopheles mosquitoes, including the local An. coluzzii mosquito population. Cows were only used to attract mosquitoes into the huts and no tests were carried out directly on the cows. The author checklist is intended for use with studies where experiments are carried out on animals, which is why we have had such difficulty in completing this for the hut study, as many of the questions do not relate to how the cows were used
Author-wise bibliometric analysis based on entropy.
No full textAuthor-wise bibliometric analysis based on entropy.</p
Author Under Sail The Imagination of Jack London, 1893-1902
No full textIn Author Under Sail, Jay Williams offers the first complete literary biography of Jack London as a professional writer engaged in the labor of writing. It examines the authorial imagination in London's work, the use of imagination in both his fiction and nonfiction, and the ways he defined imagination in the creative process in his business dealings with his publishers, editors, and agents. In this first volume of a two-volume biography, Williams traverses the years 1893 to 1902, from London's "Story of a Typhoon" to The People of the Abyss. The Jack London who emerges in the pages of Author Under Sail is a writer whose partnership with publishers, most notably his productive alliance with George Brett of Macmillan, was one of the most formative in American literary history. London pioneered many author models during the heyday of realism and naturalism, blurring the boundaries of these popular genres by focusing on absorption and theatricality and the representation of the seen and unseen. London created an impassioned, sincere, and extremely personal realism unlike that of other American writers of the time. Author Under Sail is a literary tour de force that reveals the full range of London as writer, creative citizen, and entrepreneur at the same time it sheds light on the maverick side of machine-age literature.Intro -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Dedication -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Introduction -- 1. Spirit Truth -- 2. From Absorption to Theatricality and Back Again -- 3. "I Will Build a New Present" -- 4. Sons as Authors -- 5. Fathers as Publishers -- 6. The Daughter as Author -- 7. Lovers as Authors -- 8. At Sea with the Family -- 9. Yellow News, Yellow Stories -- 10. The Return Home -- Notes -- Bibliography -- Index -- About Jay WilliamsIn Author Under Sail, Jay Williams offers the first complete literary biography of Jack London as a professional writer engaged in the labor of writing. It examines the authorial imagination in London's work, the use of imagination in both his fiction and nonfiction, and the ways he defined imagination in the creative process in his business dealings with his publishers, editors, and agents. In this first volume of a two-volume biography, Williams traverses the years 1893 to 1902, from London's "Story of a Typhoon" to The People of the Abyss. The Jack London who emerges in the pages of Author Under Sail is a writer whose partnership with publishers, most notably his productive alliance with George Brett of Macmillan, was one of the most formative in American literary history. London pioneered many author models during the heyday of realism and naturalism, blurring the boundaries of these popular genres by focusing on absorption and theatricality and the representation of the seen and unseen. London created an impassioned, sincere, and extremely personal realism unlike that of other American writers of the time. Author Under Sail is a literary tour de force that reveals the full range of London as writer, creative citizen, and entrepreneur at the same time it sheds light on the maverick side of machine-age literature.Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources.Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, YYYY. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries
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