1,721,128 research outputs found
Default and risk premia in microfinance group lending
No full textFor a risk neutral lender and a group of borrowers facing identical revenue risks we compare individual loans and group lending. We stress the importance of group liquidity in defining the necessary risk premium. There are no welfare differences between the loan forms. However, the default rates and risk premia vary ambiguously between the loan forms. Simulations replicating empirical interest rates and default rates show that the group interest rate is lower for a larger group while the effect of group size on default risk is ambiguous. We then consider the case of identical correlated risks between borrowers. Positive correlation of projects gives a higher downward risk, so a higher group interest rate and a higher fraction of successes are required. Unlike independent group lending, the interest rate and the default risk are not lower in the larger group loan with correlated returns. Simulations using beta-binomial distributions are presente
Evaluation of individual and group lending under asymmetric information
No full textThe paper attempts to find the socially best loan contract by comparing exante welfare, interest and default rates of individual and group lending. We introduce a general framework which allows auditing policies and interest rates to be simultaneously determined by maximising the social welfare. Both variables vary with the types of risk considered: independently identically distributed and positively correlated risk. An individual project outcome is private information of its owner, but reported outcomes can be audited at a cost which then publicly reveals the true project outcome. We find that incentive compatibility in a group loan context is delicate: the conditions for truth telling vary with the borrowers’ perception of the overall solvency of the group. In addition, group loans are often made to local groups who have established local networks. This may mean that the group has cheaper policing of truthtelling, but also that the risks on projects within the group are likely to be correlated. To explore this, we numerically solve for the optimal contracts with varying audit cost differences and correlation, using a betabinomial distribution. We find that with an audit cost advantage, small group loans (typically to two borrowers) dominate individual loans even with correlation. But if audit costs are identical, the individual loan dominates. In the larger the group, the higher the audit probability is required to ensure truthtelling. Our finding provides an argument for why the number of borrowers should be limited to 2-5
Models for the analysis of consumer demand in the post war United Kingdom
No full textThe thesis involves an examination of theoretical models of consumer behaviour that are available and their empirical application to a variety of data on post-war United Kingdom consumer demand. Major theoretical results involve classification of demand systems exhibiting linear group spending functions and that are consistent with strongly separable preferences formulation of preferences which admit the introduction of exogenous parameters into the demand system in a particularly simple fashion; characterisation of the restrictions which reduce generalised separable to separable systems; conditions for linear aggregation across consumers with grouped income distribution data; conditions for aggregation across consumers with endogenous labour supply and an associated functional form for the distribution of incomes; the relationship between myopic state adjustment models and neoclassical models; conditions for the existence of Fisherian user costs in intertemporal models; the relationship between short and long run consumer choices. Major empirical exercises involve estimation of a generalised separable system exhibiting nonlinear Engel curves on a fine commodity classification (eighty seven commodities) estimation of a demand system disaggregated by consumer and consequent testing of aggregate demand theory estimation of an inter temporal model to explain purchases of durables, non durables and consumer saving.</p
A Top Dog Tale with Preference Complementarities
Full text linkThe emergence of a winner-take-all (top dog) outcome is generally due to political or institutional constraints or to specific technological features which favour the performance of just one individual. In this paper we provide a different explanation for the occurrence of a top-dog equilibrium in exchange economies. We show that once heterogeneous complementarities (i.e. Scarf’s preferences) are analysed with general endowment distributions, a variety of equilibria different from the well-known symmetric outcome with full utilisation of resources can emerge. Specifically, we show that stable corner equilibria with a winner-take-all (top dog) individual arise that are Pareto optima although the remaining individuals are no better off than with zero consumption and resources can be unused. Because of heterogenous complementarities, market mechanisms are weak and cannot overcome the top dog’s power. Voting mechanisms or taxation policies can reduce the top dog’s privileged position
Equilibrium moment restrictions on asset returns: normal and crisis periods
Full text linkEmpirically, the covariance between stock returns varies with their volatility. We seek a robust theoretical explanation of this. With minimal assumptions, we model stochastic properties of equilibrium returns which result from the interaction between inter-temporal traders and noisy, price-sensitive short-term traders. The inter-temporal traders can have arbitrary investment rules, preferences and information. In all cases we find a set of restrictions between second moments of equilibrium returns. With two assets there is also a bound on the correlation between asset returns. Estimation with second moments of global stock returns supports our theoretical framework. Higher volatility in at least one market can increase comovement among markets. With globalization, covariances between two stock markets can also affect covariances between two other stock markets. We also find that the changes in trader behavior between normal and crisis periods lead to changes in the moment restrictions between asset returns
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Full text linkThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
Full text link“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
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