23 research outputs found
Essays in macroeconomics : a DSGE approach
No full textThesis (Ph.D. (Economics))--National Institute of Development Administration, 2021This dissertation consists of two independent essays in macroeconomics. The first essay examined environmental policy and convexity of climate change damage functions while the second one analyzed the impact of Covid-19 pandemic on the Thai economy.
Environmental Policy and Convexity of Climate Change Damage Functions: An Experiment with New Keynesian DSGE model. The paper seeks out to investigate how varying degree of convexity of climate change damage function affect economic output and the dynamic response of macroeconomic variables to shocks under different environmental policy regimes. In an economy featuring nominal rigidities and monopolistically competitive firms together with climate change mitigation policy and firm abatement effort, the results show that the choice of damage function affects long term growth of the economy and the performance of climate mitigation policy. A highly convex climate damage function has a significant contractionary effect on economic output and by extension consumption and private investment. This result stands irrespective of the environmental policy put in place. The impact of exogenous shocks on the macroeconomic variables is higher the higher the degree of convexity of the damage function. Cap-and-trade policy compresses the response of macroeconomic variables to these shocks, irrespective of curvature of the damage function. The results are robust to different calibration of the climate damage functions.
Impact of Covid-19 On the Thai Economy and The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy: A Bayesian DSGE Model Approach. This study estimates a medium scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for the Thai economy to evaluate the impact of the Covid-19 containment policy on the key macroeconomic aggregates. Shock to labor supply is considered the main transmission channel. We discuss the role of monetary policy in the economic recovery and also identify dominant shocks driving the business cycle. Thai quarterly series from 2011Q1 to 2021Q2 is used for the Bayesian estimation of the model. Though the pandemic shock caused sharp decline in output, consumption and investment, the results suggest a fast recovery in growth rates of the variables in about 2.5 years. At the same time, the dominant shocks that account for output variation in the medium to long term are investment, labor supply, productivity and monetary policy shocks. This revealed the important role of monetary policy in the economic growth of Thailand. The key drivers of Thai household consumption in the long run are investment, labor supply, productivity and monetary policy shocks. On average, investment shock appears to be the key driver of the business cycle at all horizons
Firm-Level Innovations in an Emerging Economy: Do Perceived Policy Instability and Legal Institutional Conditions Matter?
No full textInnovation has become a key factor of production, driving and sustaining firms’ productivity and competitiveness. Despite the growing importance attached to innovations, existing studies have produced different results on the factors driving firm-level innovations. This study investigates the factors driving innovations in the service and manufacturing sector firms in Thailand. The study tests proposed hypotheses using cross-sectional data on a sample of 613 firms from the World Bank enterprise survey of 2016. Our empirical results show that specific aspects of the business environment, such as policy instability, legal institutions, corruption, and informal competition, negatively influence non-technological innovations. Contrarily, we find that formal training, foreign technology licenses, research and development have marginal and additionality effects that positively enhance both technological and non-technological innovations. We provide practical implications for firm managers and policymakers in Thailand on adaptive measures to improve the business environment to make it conducive for firm-level innovations
The Impact of Internet on Economic Growth in Africa
No full textThe objective of this study is to estimate the effect of internet on economic growth in Africa as this region has recently been a rapidly growing number of internet usersas well as high economic growth. Using the constructed panel data set of 19 African countries from 2003 to 2014 and employing the Fixed Effect-Iterated Generalized Least Square (FE-IGLS) estimation to correct for autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity, the results show no spurious regression problem. It indicated that internet hasan impact on economic growth when it is complementary with physical capital and technology. Our main finding suggests that African governments should support their children toenter in education higher than secondary level and encourage labor using internet to boost up their knowledge
Comparative evaluation of three new tools for diagnosis of bancroftian filariasis based on detection of specific circulating antigens
No full textRandomised trial of chloroquine/sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine in Gambian children with malaria: impact against multidrug-resistant P. falciparum.
No full textOBJECTIVES: In the Gambia, the combination of chloroquine (CQ) and sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) has replaced CQ monotherapy for treatment of malaria caused by Plasmodium falciparum. We measured the efficacy of the combination CQ/SP, and the prevalence of parasites carrying alleles associated with resistance to CQ or SP. DESIGN: We conducted a single-blind, randomised, controlled trial to compare the efficacy of CQ/SP to that of SP or CQ alone. SETTING: The study took place in the town of Farafenni and surrounding villages in the Gambia. PARTICIPANTS: Participants were children aged 12 mo to 10 y presenting as outpatients with uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria. INTERVENTIONS: 500 children were randomised to receive CQ, SP, or CQ/SP as supervised treatment and actively followed over 28 d. OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome was parasitaemia at any time during follow-up. Secondary outcomes were PCR-confirmed recrudescent infections among treatment failures, and clinical failure requiring rescue medication by day 28. Pretreatment parasite isolates from 161 patients were tested for the presence of resistance-associated genetic markers. RESULTS: The prevalence of parasitological failure by day 28 for the CQ group was 60.3%, compared to 17.6% for SP (odds ratio [OR], 0.106; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.057-0.194; p < 0.001) and 13.9% for CQ/SP (OR versus CQ, 0.140; 95% CI, 0.078-0.250; p < 0.001). There was no difference between the SP and CQ/SP groups (OR, 1.324; 95% CI, 0.705-2.50). The projected prevalence of PCR-corrected treatment failure was 30.2, 6.06, and 3.94% in the CQ, SP, and CQ/SP groups, respectively. The pfdhfr-triple mutant and pfdhps-437G mutation were common, with prevalences of 67.4 and 51.2%, respectively. Pretreatment carriage of pfdhps-437G and of multidrug-resistant parasite genotypes was associated with treatment failure in the SP group, but not in the CQ or CQ/SP groups. CONCLUSIONS: The combination of CQ/SP was an efficacious treatment for uncomplicated malaria in Gambian children in this study, but the frequent occurrence of multidrug-resistant parasites suggests that this observed efficacy is not sustainable
Research and development, economic growth, CO2 emissions and environmental Kuznets curve
No full textThe conflict between attaining economic growth and lowering carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is a significant barrier to sustainable development. While the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis predicts that emissions ultimately drop with economic maturity, the timing and direction of this turning point remain inconsistent across countries. Drawing on insights from the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), this study examines the relationship between economic growth and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions while considering the contingent effect of investment in research and development (R&D) and how it affects the trajectory and the turning point of CO2 emissions over time. Using panel data from a sample of about 525 observations from 25 emerging markets for the period 2000–2020 and fixed effects, and the difference and system generalised method of moments (GMM) method, we find that R&D investments positively moderate the relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions at the initial stage and negatively at the later stage of development. The analysis also revealed that investment in research activities reduce the turning point of the EKC, supporting the idea that technological progress can decouple economic growth from environmental degradation. We further find that increasing expenditure on R&D activities does not invalidate the EKC, though it changes the trajectory of pollution over time with economic growth. Energy consumption and FDI increase pollution, while renewable energy use reduces it in the emerging economies analysed. Our findings are robust and consistent with different estimation approaches. Policymakers should prioritise funding for R&D for environmental innovation to alleviate the environmental impact of economic growth, especially in the early stages of development
Fazliddin Muhammadiev’s Journey to the “Other World”: The History of a Cold War <i>Ḥajjnāma</i>
No full textFazliddin Muhammadiev’s Dar on dunyo (“In the other world”), first published in Tajik in 1965 and later translated to Russian, Uzbek, and many other languages, is the only known fictionalized account of the ḥajj produced in the Soviet Union. Based on a trip made by the author in 1963, the novel provided the Soviet reader a rare glimpse into this sacred rite. Drawing on archival sources, contemporary responses, and the text itself, this article traces the origins and publication history of the novel, situates it within Soviet domestic and foreign policy goals, and analyzes the text to see how the author tried to reconcile competing ideological priorities
Chloroquine/sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine for gambian children with malaria: transmission to mosquitoes of multidrug-resistant Plasmodium falciparum.
No full textOBJECTIVES: In the Gambia, chloroquine (CQ) plus sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) is the first-line antimalarial treatment. Plasmodium falciparum parasites carrying mutations associated with resistance to each of these drugs were present in 2001 but did not cause a significant loss of therapeutic efficacy among children receiving the combination CQ/SP. We measured their effect on parasite transmission to Anopheles gambiae mosquitoes. DESIGN: We conducted a single-blind, randomised, controlled trial with follow-up over 28 d. Mosquito feeding experiments were carried out 7, 10, or 14 d after treatment. SETTING: The study took place in the town of Farafenni and surrounding villages in the Gambia. PARTICIPANTS: Participants were 500 children aged 6 mo to 10 y with uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria. INTERVENTIONS: Children were randomised to receive CQ, SP, or CQ/SP. OUTCOME MEASURES: Outcomes related to transmission were determined, including posttreatment gametocyte prevalence and density. Infectiousness was assessed by membrane-feeding A. gambiae mosquitoes with blood from 70 gametocyte-positive patients. Mutations at seven loci in four genes associated with drug resistance were measured pre- and posttreatment and in the midguts of infected mosquitoes. RESULTS: After SP treatment, the infectiousness of gametocytes was delayed, compared to the other two treatment groups, despite comparable gametocyte densities. Among bloodmeal gametocytes and the midguts of infected mosquitoes, the presence of the four-locus multidrug-resistant haplotype TYRG (consisting of mutations pfcrt-76T, pfmdr1-86Y, pfdhfr-59R, and pfdhps-437G) was associated with significantly higher oocyst burdens after treatment with the combination CQ/SP. CONCLUSIONS: Parasites with a multidrug-resistant genotype had a substantial transmission advantage after CQ/SP treatment but did not have a significant impact on in vivo efficacy of this drug combination. Protocols that include measuring transmission endpoints as well as therapeutic outcomes may be a useful strategy when monitoring the evolution of drug resistance in malaria parasites in vivo
Gametocytaemia after drug treatment of asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum
No full textOBJECTIVES: Treatment of Plasmodium falciparum malaria with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) is followed by a sharp rise in the prevalence and density of gametocytes. We did a randomized trial to determine the effect of treatment of asymptomatic infections with SP or SP plus one dose of artesunate (SP+AS) on gametocyte carriage. DESIGN: The study was a three-arm open-label randomized trial. We randomized asymptomatic carriers of P. falciparum to receive antimalarial treatment or placebo, and recorded the prevalence and density of gametocytes over the next 2 mo. SETTING: The trial was conducted during the dry (low malaria transmission) season in four rural villages in Gambia. PARTICIPANTS: Participants were adults and children aged over 6 mo with asexual P. falciparum infection and confirmed free of clinical symptoms of malaria over a 2-d screening period. INTERVENTIONS: Participants were randomized to receive a single dose of SP or SP+AS or placebo. OUTCOME MEASURES: The outcome measures were the presence of gametocytes 7 and 56 d after treatment, and the duration and density of gametocytaemia over 2 mo. RESULTS: In total, 372 asymptomatic carriers were randomized. Gametocyte prevalence on day 7 was 10.5% in the placebo group, 11.2% in the SP group (risk difference to placebo 0.7%, 95% confidence interval -7.4% to 8.7%, p = 0.87), and 7.1% in the SP+AS group (risk difference to placebo 4.1%, 95% confidence interval -3.3% to 12%, p = 0.28). By day 56, gametocyte prevalence was 13% in the placebo group and 2% in both drug-treated groups. Gametocyte carriage (the area under the curve of gametocyte density versus time), was reduced by 71% in the SP group, and by 74% in the SP+AS group, compared to placebo. Gametocyte carriage varied with age and was greater among children under 15 than among adults. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment of asymptomatic carriers of P. falciparum with SP does not increase gametocyte carriage or density. Effective treatment of asexual parasitaemia in the dry season reduces gametocyte carriage to very low levels after 4 wk
Fever and its treatment among the more and less poor in Sub-Saharan Africa
No full textThe author empirically explores the relationship between household poverty and the incidence and treatment of fever--as an indicator of malaria--among children in Sub-Saharan Africa. He uses household Demographic and Health Survey data collected in the 1990s from 22 countriesin which malaria is prevalent. The analysis reveals a positive, but weak, association between reported fever and poverty. The geographic association becomes insignificant, however, after controlling for the mother's education. There is some evidence that higher levels of wealth in other households in the cluster in which the household lives are associated with lower levels of reported fever in Eastern and Southern Africa. Poverty and the type of care sought for an episode of fever are significantly associated: wealthier households are substantially more likely to seek care in the modern health sector. In Central and Western Africa those from richer households are more likely to seek care from all types of sources: government hospitals, lower-level public facilities such as health clinics, as well as private sources. In Eastern and Southern Africa the rich are primarily more likely to seek care from private facilities. In both regions there is substantial use of private facilities--use that increases with wealth. Like the incidence of fever, treatment-seeking behavior is strongly associated with the level of wealth in the cluster in which the child lives.Disease Control&Prevention,Health Systems Development&Reform,Public Health Promotion,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Early Child and Children's Health,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Poverty Assessment,Communicable Diseases,Statistical&Mathematical Sciences,Health Indicators
