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    Cross hedge entre etanol e açúcar no Brasil: Uma análise de razão ótima e efetividade

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    The objective of this dissertation was to estimate the effectiveness of the cross hedge between the hydrous ethanol and sugar futures quotations with the hydrous ethanol futures contracts at the BM &FBovespa and the Sugar 11 at ICE Futures. The daily price series of hydrated ethanol and crystal sugar provided by the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics - CEPEA/ESALQ-USP, were used to calculate the future hydrous ethanol contract with financial settlement, BM&FBovespa's Information Retrieval System and the data provided by ICE Futures US for the sugar contract No. 11, in a total of 753 observations per series, divided into two periods: the first, from 03/13/2013 to 09/24/2015 and the second, from 09/25/2015 to 10/10/2016. In the first model of this dissertation, the estimation was based on the minimum variance hedge, using ordinary least squares. In the second, the estimation was performed by a autoregression vector model, and in order to achieve the general objective of this work, the methodological approach used was based on the multivariate model with conditional heteroscedasticity, GARCH-BEKK, justified by the need to consider modeling dynamically through the matrix of variances and conditional covariance of the series. A Granger causality was identified in the series analyzed, except for the hedge between the demanded sugar prices and the sugar futures contracts, which contributed to the hedge inefficiency in this model. Among the models analyzed in the first period, the one that resulted in a greater possibility in mitigating the variance of the hedger's income was the cross between the Brazilian sugar prices and the sugar futures contracts with the OLS model, which estimated an effectiveness of approximately 95%, with the model of minimum variance. Then, the same relationship was the one that presented better effectiveness, only with the GARCH-BEKK model, with 92%. For the second period, the results by the minimum variance model, as well as in Period 1, were the one that presented a greater effectiveness of hedge, with a highlight of a complete coverage in the hedge between the Brazilian sugar quotations and the American futures contract. In the application of GARCH-BEKK, the results pointed out that, when the volatility dynamics between the end of September 2015 and the beginning of October 2016 is considered, the results do not reach 50%, deducing that the hedge in this period was not effective and would not allow hedgers to reduce their risk.Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPESO objetivo desta dissertação foi o de estimar a efetividade do cross hedge entre as cotações à vista do etanol hidratado e do açúcar com os contratos futuros de etanol hidratado na BM&FBovespa e do açúcar nº 11 na ICE Futures. Para a realização desta pesquisa, foram utilizadas as séries de preços diários do etanol hidratado e do açúcar cristal disponibilizados pelo Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada – CEPEA/ESALQ-USP, das cotações do contrato futuro de etanol hidratado com liquidação financeira, disponibilizado no Sistema de Recuperação de Informações da BM&FBovespa e dos dados disponibilizados pela ICE Futures U.S. referentes ao contrato de açúcar nº 11, em um total de 753 observações por série, dividida em dois períodos: o primeiro, de 13/03/2013 a 24/09/2015 e o segundo, de 25/09/2015 a 10/10/2016. No primeiro modelo desta dissertação, a estimação se deu pelo hedge de variância mínima, através de mínimos quadrados ordinários. No segundo, a estimação foi realizada por um modelo por vetores autorregressvivos, e com a finalidade de alcançar o objetivo geral deste trabalho, a abordagem metodológica utilizada baseou-se no modelo multivariado com heterocedasticidade condicional, o GARCH-BEKK, justificado pela necessidade de se considerar a modelagem de forma dinâmica através da matriz de variâncias e covariâncias condicionais das séries. Identificou-se uma causalidade Granger nas séries analisadas, exceto no hedge entre os preços do açúcar cristal à vista e dos contratos futuros do açúcar nº 11, fato que contribuiu para a ineficiência de hedge neste modelo. Dentre os modelos analisados no primeiro período, a que resultou em uma maior possibilidade na mitigação na variância da receita do hedger foi a do cruzamento entre os preços do açúcar brasileiro com os contratos futuros de açúcar com o modelo por MQO que estimou uma efetividade de aproximados 95%, com o modelo de variância mínima. Em seguida, a mesma relação foi a que apresentou uma melhor efetividade, só que com o modelo GARCH-BEKK, com 92%. Para o segundo período, os resultados pelo modelo de variância mínima, assim como no Período 1, foram o que apresentaram uma maior efetividade de hedge, com um destaque de uma cobertura completa no hedge entre as cotações do açúcar brasileiro e do contrato futuro americano. Na aplicação do GARCH-BEKK, os resultados destacaram que, quando considerada a dinâmica da volatilidade entre o final de setembro de 2015 e o início de outubro de 2016, os resultados não chegam aos 50%, deduzindo que o hedge neste período não foi efetivo e que não possibilitaria uma diminuição do risco aos hedgers

    Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis

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    The present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed

    Variations on the Author

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    “Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship

    Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis

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    We provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis

    Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts

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    We conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more sophisticated methods

    Author Index

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    koamabayili/VECTRON-author-checklist: VECTRON author checklist

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    We have done our best to complete the author checklist relating to the use of animals in the hut study. Note that the objective for the hut study was to evaluate the IRS treatment applications for residual efficacy against Anopheles mosquitoes, including the local An. coluzzii mosquito population. Cows were only used to attract mosquitoes into the huts and no tests were carried out directly on the cows. The author checklist is intended for use with studies where experiments are carried out on animals, which is why we have had such difficulty in completing this for the hut study, as many of the questions do not relate to how the cows were used

    Author Under Sail The Imagination of Jack London, 1893-1902

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    In Author Under Sail, Jay Williams offers the first complete literary biography of Jack London as a professional writer engaged in the labor of writing. It examines the authorial imagination in London's work, the use of imagination in both his fiction and nonfiction, and the ways he defined imagination in the creative process in his business dealings with his publishers, editors, and agents. In this first volume of a two-volume biography, Williams traverses the years 1893 to 1902, from London's "Story of a Typhoon" to The People of the Abyss. The Jack London who emerges in the pages of Author Under Sail is a writer whose partnership with publishers, most notably his productive alliance with George Brett of Macmillan, was one of the most formative in American literary history. London pioneered many author models during the heyday of realism and naturalism, blurring the boundaries of these popular genres by focusing on absorption and theatricality and the representation of the seen and unseen. London created an impassioned, sincere, and extremely personal realism unlike that of other American writers of the time. Author Under Sail is a literary tour de force that reveals the full range of London as writer, creative citizen, and entrepreneur at the same time it sheds light on the maverick side of machine-age literature.Intro -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Dedication -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Introduction -- 1. Spirit Truth -- 2. From Absorption to Theatricality and Back Again -- 3. "I Will Build a New Present" -- 4. Sons as Authors -- 5. Fathers as Publishers -- 6. The Daughter as Author -- 7. Lovers as Authors -- 8. At Sea with the Family -- 9. Yellow News, Yellow Stories -- 10. The Return Home -- Notes -- Bibliography -- Index -- About Jay WilliamsIn Author Under Sail, Jay Williams offers the first complete literary biography of Jack London as a professional writer engaged in the labor of writing. It examines the authorial imagination in London's work, the use of imagination in both his fiction and nonfiction, and the ways he defined imagination in the creative process in his business dealings with his publishers, editors, and agents. In this first volume of a two-volume biography, Williams traverses the years 1893 to 1902, from London's "Story of a Typhoon" to The People of the Abyss. The Jack London who emerges in the pages of Author Under Sail is a writer whose partnership with publishers, most notably his productive alliance with George Brett of Macmillan, was one of the most formative in American literary history. London pioneered many author models during the heyday of realism and naturalism, blurring the boundaries of these popular genres by focusing on absorption and theatricality and the representation of the seen and unseen. London created an impassioned, sincere, and extremely personal realism unlike that of other American writers of the time. Author Under Sail is a literary tour de force that reveals the full range of London as writer, creative citizen, and entrepreneur at the same time it sheds light on the maverick side of machine-age literature.Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources.Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, YYYY. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries
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