136 research outputs found
The Value of children : a cross-national study. Vol. 2 Philippines
No full textFor more about the East-West Center, see http://www.eastwestcenter.org/Contents: v. 1. Arnold, F., et al. Introduction and comparative analysis.--v. 2. Bulatao, R. A. Philippines.--v. 3. Arnold, F. and Fawcett, J. T. Hawaii.--v. 4. Buripakdi, C. Thailand.--v. 5. Wu, T. S. Taiwan.--v. 6. Iritani, T. Japan.--v. 7. Lee, S. J. and Kim, J.-O. Korea
Global estimates and projections of mortality by cause, 1970-2015
No full textThe authors report estimates and projections of deaths by cause for major world regions, based on data from country reports to the World Health Organization and regression models. They report mortality rates for seven major causes: infectious and parasitic diseases, neoplasms, circulatory system diseases, complications of pregnancy, certain perinatal conditions, injury and poisoning, and other causes. Some more specific causes are reported on. They give estimates for six age groups by sex for four years (1970, 1985, 2000, and 2015) and six country groups: industrial market economies, industrial nonmarket economies, Latin America and the Caribbean, sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, and Asia and the Pacific. Among their findings: The population over 45 in developing countries is projected to more than double between 1985 and 2015, rising from 17 to 24 percent of the population. Causes of death, which are closely related to age at death, must change accordingly. Infant mortality in developing countries is projected to fall from 78 per thousand in 1985 to 43 per thousand in 2015 and life expectancy at birth in developing countries is projected to rise by five years. The leading causes of death for the world as a whole for both 1970 and 1985 were infectious and parasitic diseases and circulatory system diseases - with the first more important in developing countries, and the second more important in developed countries. Certain perinatal conditions were also more important for developing countries, but accounted for only a fourth or a fifth as many deaths in 1985. Neoplasms were more important in developed than in developing countries. Deaths from infectious diseases are expected to decline as a percentage of deaths; proportionate deaths from diseases of the circulatory system are expected to rise. The greatest number of deaths will continue to be in Asia, where almost half of all deaths in the world take place. This proportion is not projected to change. Better data on causes of death are essential. The World Health Organization is working with countries to strengthen their cause-of-death information systems as an essential support for health monitoring.Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Health Indicators,Early Child and Children's Health,Adolescent Health,Demographics
Latin America and the Caribbean region population projections : 1990-91
No full textThis paper provides population projections for each country, economy, or territory in one World Bank region, as well as for nonborrower countries in the same geographic area. The Latin American and the Caribbean region is demographically at an intermediate stage. Fertility has declined to between 3 and 4 children per woman in all subregions as contraceptive use has continued to broaden. Life expectancy has risen to between 65 and 69, or about 10 years below countries with the most favorable mortality conditions. Some countries in the region have advanced to replacement level fertility; a few others are just starting the fertility transition. The projections show all countries in the region completing the transition by 2030 - the earliest of all regions. In this 1990-91 edition, projects are provided in a new format to permit the inclusion of data on recent demographic trends. Projection methods have changed only marginally since the previous edition. Essentially, recent country-specific data about levels and trends in fertility, mortality, and international migration are applied to available age-sex distributions in order to obtain short-run projections. Long-run projections, up to 2150, are also made under the assumptions that fertility and mortality eventually become stable and net international migration declines to zero.Demographics,Health Indicators,Health Information&Communications Technologies,,Country Population Profiles
Asia region population projections : 1990-91 edition
No full textAlmost half the worlds population lives in Asia. This proportion is expected to decline to 40 percent by the end of the next century, mainly because of slowing growth in China. Other countries will continue to grow rapidly, and India, which adds more people every year than any other country, is project to surpass China in total population. Recent contraceptive prevalence surveys in several countries in the region show increasing proportions of couples using birth control. Fertility in these countries, mostly in Southeast Asia, has consequently declined rapidly. Population growth rates started to drop in many countries in the region in the past decade, but the momentum built in to the age structures of the populations will ensure continued population growth for many decades. Other countries in the region are lagging in fertility decline, and their populations will continue to grow at high rates. Infant and child mortality are the lowest in countries where fertility has declined.Earth Sciences&GIS,Demographics,Health Indicators,Health Information&Communications Technologies,
Projecting the demographic impact of AIDS
No full textA simple model that simulates the spread of AIDS is used to generate estimates of deaths from AIDS, which are incorporated into population projections covering 20 years. Preliminary results for one country are shown - not firm estimates, as the model has several arbitrarily set parameters. The results suggest that the number of infectionsand deaths could be extremely large, even if transmission of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is substantially reduced. In five years, deaths in a single country will be in the tens of thousands, and after 20 years could be hundreds of thousands and still rising. Nevertheless, the impact on population size appears small. The authors discuss why these results should not be entirely trusted, and what work remains to be done. Where HIV is relatively widespread, changes in sexual behavior, particulary increases in condom use, are essential to reduce the scale of the epidemic. Earlier changes are more effective than later changes. But across countries with different levels of prevalence and sexual activity, changes in sexual behavior produce similar effects.Health Indicators,,HIV AIDS,Adolescent Health,Health Monitoring&Evaluation
Is the discount on the secondary market a case for LDC debt relief?
No full textIn 1988, the prices on the secondary market of LDC debt averaged 50 cents per dollar of face value. From the observation of such discount, this paper goes one step further and argues thatthe debt should be written down in order to account for the discrepancy between the face and market value of the debt. The paper is structured as follows. Section 1 spells out the model, section 2 calculates the socially efficient and the post-default growth rates of the economy. Section 3 shows that the lenders, if they were to monitor the investment and the consumption strategy of the borrower, would choose a lower investment strategy than the socially efficient one. Section 4 shows how an optimum rescheduling can achieve the equilibrium described in section 3. Section 5 shows the dynamic inconsistency of the optimal strategy spelled out in section 4, and shows the link with the"debt overhang"literature. Section 6 investigates the empirical relevance of the"debt overhang".Economic Theory&Research,Banks&Banking Reform,Environmental Economics&Policies,Strategic Debt Management,Financial Intermediation
Making noisy data sing : a micro approach to measuring industrial efficiency
No full textTechnical, scale and allocative inefficiency are widely believed to plague the industrial sectors of developing countries. This paper presents a way to measure this inefficiency with imperfect data. There is great interest in documenting the patterns and magnitudes of inefficiency, so that appropriate corrective policies can be designed. This paper presents a new approach to analyzing plant efficiency that recognizes and deals with such data imperfections as measurement error, missing observations and selectivity bias. The author has developed full-information maximum-likelihood (FIML) estimators of production technologies that deal with missing data and measurement errors, making alternative assumptions about the missing data patterns and the timing of employment and decisions. These estimators yield indices of the returns to scale, means square deviation from the efficient frontier and - when labor is treated as endogenous - mean square deviation from efficient factor mixes. To gauge the performance of the alternative estimators, the author applies them to census data on Chilean industry, and compares the results with naive estimators that do not recognize data imperfections.Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Statistical&Mathematical Sciences,Information Technology,Banks&Banking Reform
Reflections on demographic, evolutionary, and genetic approaches to the study of human reproductive behavior
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