1,721,024 research outputs found
An Energy-Environment-Macro Model for the Italian economy: 2E- MeMo-It
No full textIn this paper we illustrate the empirical strategy to extend the macro-econometric model of the italian
economy to the energy sector and we show a first set of preliminary estimation results. We build an
energy block in MeMo-It that interacts with the demand side of the economy. In particular, we model
the demand of energy products and the dynamic of their relative prices in order to be able to evaluate
the impact of energy policy measures on the Italian econom
Professionals Inflation Forecasts: The Two Dimensions of Forecaster Inattentiveness
Full text linkThis article explores professionals’ inflation forecasts, specifically the structure of their forecast error. Recent papers considering professionals’ inflation forecast have focused on the role of forecaster inattentiveness. We consider a new additional dimension of inattentiveness which is observed when forecasters form multi-period forecasts, and implicitly their perceived momentum of inflation. The present analysis introduces a novel model that is investigated empirically using survey-based data for the US. It establishes a new structure for the professionals’ forecast error accounting for both dimensions of inattentiveness, which relates respectively to forecast updating and multi-period forecasting in each period
Modelling public and private investment in innovation
No full textIn this paper we assess the contribution of investment in innovation
to GDP growth in a macroeconometric model for the Italian economy.
The analysis adopts the model for medium term forecasts (MeMo-It)
developed by the Italian Statistical Institute (Istat), where investment
is modeled by asset and institutional sector. Adopting this framework,
we provide empirical evidence about the complementary relationship
between private and public investment in R&D and software. Compared to the existing macroeconometric models, MeMo-It provides a
novel framework for policy evaluation that makes possible the generation of alternative scenarios to assess the growth effect of specific
policy measures tailored to sustain innovative investment. Our findings support the growth promoting effect of expansionary fiscal policy
measures aimed at fostering public investment in innovation
: A New Web Search‐based Uncertainty Index
Full text linkMeasuring economic uncertainty is extremely important for evaluating its role in economic activity.
Nevertheless, measuring uncertainty is a difficult task since we do not know when economic agents
perceive uncertainty and which type of uncertainty affects them. This paper introduces the economic
uncertainty-related queries (EURQ) index, computed for both the USA and Italy, which measures
economic, political, and normative uncertainty through large-scale searches on the Internet. We show
that the EURQ captures economic agents’ need for information in response to uncertainty shocks.
Moreover, we show that this need for information is not just curiosity triggered by press coverage but
rather captures individuals’ genuine interest, particularly in specific topics subject to uncertainty.
Hence, the EURQ can be fruitfully exploited to measure the level of uncertainty perceived by
economic agents and to assess the role of specific types of uncertainty in economic activity
Why demand uncertainty curbs investment: Evidence froma a panel of Italian manufacturing firms
Full text linkFrom a theoretical point of view, uncertainty over the demand for a firmÂ’s product may not have clear effects on investments, because of the influence of a number of factors, such as the production technology and the amount of competition in the product market.Until now, a deeper investigation of the interplay of different factors in the temporal dimension has not been possible because the empirical research has been based on cross-section analysis. This omission makes biased estimates of the investment-uncertainty relationship likely.The aim of this paper is to extend the findings of the empirical literature by using a panel of Italian firms over the period 1996-2004, covering a complete business cycle. The availability of a panel of survey data on companiesÂ’ investment plans, expected future sales and demand uncertainty allows us to account for unobservable individual firm differences, macroeconomic shocks and the temporal evolution of the investment-uncertainty relationship. A key finding of our paper concerns the role of the competition faced by Italian firms in 1996-2004. The gradual loss of market power experienced by Italian manufacturing firms along with the increasing flexibility of labour input may have weakened the negative effect of uncertainty on investment decisions. We show that, in repeated cross-section estimates, the omission of firm-specific effects together with the dynamic interplay described above, would have lead to misleading conclusions about the relevance of demand uncertainty in explaining investment decisions.planned investments, demand uncertainty, survey data, panel estimation.
Dynamic corporate capital structure behavior: empirical assessment in the light of heterogeneity and non stationarity
Full text linkUnderstanding the dynamics of the leverage ratio is at the heart of the empirical research about firms' capital structure, as they can be very different under alternative theoretical models. The pillars of almost all empirical applications are the maintained assumptions of poolability and stationarity, which are motivated by the need of model’s
simplicity and treatability, rather than being based on an empirical ground. In this paper we provide robust evidence of non-stationarity for a significantly large share of US
firms' debt ratios and of strong heterogeneity in the speeds at which firms adjust towards their targets. These results stimulate new directions of the empirical research on
debt ratio dynamics by relying more on the concept of heterogeneous degree of leverage persistence
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Full text linkThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
Full text link“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
- …
