12 research outputs found
PRÉ-DIMENSIONAMENTO DE UM TERMINAL RODOVIÁRIO PARA A CIDADE DE CAÇADOR – SC
Get PDFEste artigo trata a respeito do pré-dimensionamento de um novo terminal rodoviário para a cidade de Caçador – SC. A presente pesquisa tem como objetivo geral a elaboração do pré-dimensionamento, o qual deverá contribuir significativamente para a melhoria do serviço de viação rodoviária no município diminuindo o fluxo de trânsito na zona central. A metodologia adotada nesta monografia foi por meio de referencial bibliográfico, estudo preliminar, levantamento de dados, programa de necessidades, pré-dimensionamento e montagem do funcionograma. Como resultados, obteve-se uma consulta de viabilidade na prefeitura do munícipio de Caçador – SC, a partir do qual foi realizada a escolha do local da edificação, bem como uma pesquisa em uma das empresas que atuam no terminal, apresentando a situação atual do terminal, para finalmente através desses parâmetros realizar o pré-dimensionamento necessário.Palavras-Chave: Pré-dimensionamento. Terminal rodoviário. Programa de necessidades. Funcionograma.ABSTRACTThis article deals with the pre-dimensioning of a new bus terminal for a city of Caçador - SC. The present research has as general objective the elaboration of the pre-dimensioning, which is a significant contribution to an improvement of the highway road service in the city, reducing the flow of traffic in the central zone. The methodology adopted in a monograph was by means of a bibliographic reference, preliminary study, data collection, needs program, pre-dimensioning and assembly of the program. As a result, a feasibility study was carried out at the municipality of Caçador - SC, from which a choice was made of the building site, such as a research in a company that operates in the terminal, presenting a current Terminal situation, To finally achieve these standards perform the necessary pre-sizing.Keywords: Preliminary design. Bus Station. Needs program. Diagram
Desenvolvimento de soluções analíticas e numéricas para chamas difusivas
Get PDFNeste trabalho apresenta-se um estudo analítico e numérico de uma chama difusiva turbulenta de metano. Sob a hipótese de baixo número de Mach, desenvolve-se as equações de balanço das espécies químicas (oxigênio, combustível, dióxido de carbono, vapor d'água), fração de mistura, temperatura e quantidade de movimento. Usa-se o modelo Flamelet para desenvolver o trabalho com uma chama difusiva turbulenta. Soluções analíticas são desenvolvidas pela autora, de modo a compreender os mecanismos não lineares existentes e validar a solução numérica. A Simulação em Grandes Escalas (LES) é requisitada para representar o uxo turbulento. Na simulação numérica adota-se o método de diferenças nitas com um sistema não oscilatório do tipo TVD (Total Variational Diminishing), considerando um domínio tridimensional do tipo paralelepípedo, com condições de contorno de Dirichlet e Neumann. Os resultados analítico e numérico da temperatura, fração de mistura e fração de massa das espécies são comparados com dados experimentais encontrados na literatura.This work presents an analytical-numerical study of a turbulent di usion ame of methane. The low Mach number ow hypothesis is assumed, to develop the balance equation of the chemical species (oxygen, fuel, carbon dioxide, water vapour), mixture fraction, temperature and momentum. The Flamelet model is employed to model the turbulent di usive ame. Analytical solutions are developed by the author, to understand the mechanisms of the nonlinear e ects and to validate the numerical solution. The Large Eddy Simulation (LES) is used to capture the turbulent ow. In the numerical simulation, the nite di erence method based on a non oscillatory TVD, Total Variational Diminishing scheme, assuming a three-dimensional parallelopiped domain, with Dirichlet and Neumann boundary conditions, is adopted. The analytical and numerical results for the temperature, mass fraction and mixture fraction are compared with experimental data in the literature
Conversações e contágios: o que se passa em uma escrita coletiva atravessada pelos encontros “sábados com Deleuze”?
Get PDFThis essay results from the meetings of a study group called “Saturdays with Deleuze” and held from 2015 to 2019 at Universidade Federal de Santa Maria - RS/Brazil, aiming to problematize the conversations and the contamination triggered by the works studied in the encounter with artistic practices and research in education. Some images populate the text, giving expression to the experiments that took place in this regard during the study meetings. In a biographematic move (BARTHES, 2003), this work was produced by eight hands, that is by four singularities inhabited by polyphony that resonates and is signaled in this writing as: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th sets of hands. Each author wove his or her own writing and sent the text to the next pair of hands, exploring regions not yet imagined. The textual zones resulting from this writing-reading procedure (CORAZZA, 2008) intend to invite the reader to explore ways of seeing, reading, writing, living in the academy in interrelationship with art and philosophy as fields of creation.Este ensayo es el resultado de las reuniones del grupo de estudio “Sábados con Deleuze”, realizados de 2015 a 2019, la Universidade Federal de Santa Maria - RS/Brasil, con el objetivo de problematizar las conversaciones y contagios que desencadenaron los trabajos estudiados en el encuentro con las prácticas artísticas y la investigación en educación. Algunas imágenes componen el texto, dando expresión a los experimentos que se realizaron al respecto durante las reuniones de estudio. En un movimiento biografemático (BARTHES, 2003), esta obra fue producida por ocho manos, es decir, por cuatro singularidades pobladas por una polifonía de voces que resuenan y se señalan en este escrito como: 1º, 2º, 3º y 4º par de manos. Cada autor/a tejió su escritura y la envió a la persona siguiente, explorando regiones aún no imaginadas. Las zonas textuales resultantes de este procedimiento de escritura-lectura (CORAZZA, 2008) pretenden invitar al lector/a a explorar modos de ver, leer, escribir, vivir en la academia en interrelación con el arte y la filosofía como campos de creación.Este ensaio é fruto dos encontros do grupo de estudos “Sábados com Deleuze”, ocorridos de 2015 a 2019, na Universidade Federal de Santa Maria – RS/Brasil, com o objetivo de problematizar as conversações e os contágios que as obras estudadas dispararam no encontro com práticas artísticas e a pesquisa em educação. Algumas imagens compõem o texto, dando expressão às experimentações que ocorreram nesse sentido ao longo dos encontros de estudos. Em uma movimentação biografemática (BARTHES, 2003), este trabalho foi produzido a oito mãos, isto é, por quatro singularidades povoadas por uma polifonia de vozes que ressoam e são sinalizadas nesta escrita como: 1º, 2º, 3º e 4º par de mãos. Cada autor/a tecia sua escrita e enviava para o par subsequente, explorando regiões ainda não imaginadas. As zonas textuais resultantes desse procedimento de escrileitura (CORAZZA, 2008) intentam convidar o/a leitor/a a explorar modos de ver, ler, escrever, viver na academia em inter-relação com arte e filosofia enquanto campos de criação
Methods for selecting authors for co-citation studies : how to define a cutoff point
Get PDFTrata da análise de cocitação de autores –ACA, mais especificamente apresenta uma proposta para definir a seleçãode autores. Objetivos: a) comparar dados de citação total, citação por documento citante e cocitação de autor com ele mesmo, para definir o indicador mais apropriado para a seleção; e b) propor uma forma para estabelecer um ponto de corte para a criação das matrizes. Dois conjuntos de dados, recuperados na Web of Science, foram utilizados: conjunto A, composto de 17.992 referências de 421 artigos, Conjunto B. composto de 5.771 referências de 151 artigos. Acitação por documento citante é mais apropriada para classificar os autores do que as citações totais e a cocitação do autor comele mesmo. Incluir autores cujas citações por documentos citantes somadas atingem aproximadamente 20% mostrou-se apropriado, mas autores citados uma única vez não devem fazer parte dos cálculos. Nos dados do Conjunto A, foram definidos 180 autores (20,6% da soma das citações)e 72 autores (20,1% da soma das citações), considerando as todas as posições de autoria das referências e as primeiras posições, respectivamente.Conclui-se pela validade da proposta por contextualizar os dados analisados diante do todo e considerar a melhor distribuição dos autores citados no corpus.The paper focuses on author co-citation analysis -ACA, particularly presenting a proposal to define the selection of authors. Objectives: a) to compare total citation, citation per citing document and author‟s co-citation with himself, to define the most appropriate indicator for inclusion of authors; and b) to propose a way to establish a cut-offpoint for creating of the matrices. Two data sets, retrieved from the Web of Science, were used: set A, composed of 17,992 references from 421 articles; Set B,composed of 5,771 references from 151 articles. The citation per citing document is more appropriate to classify authors than the total number of citations and author's co-citation with himself. To include authors whose citations by citing documents reach approximately 20% proved to be appropriate, but authors cited only once, which constitute absolute dispersion data, should not be included in the calculations. Regarding the data in Set A, 180 authors (20.6% of the sum of citations) and 72 authors (20.1% of the sum of citations) were defined, considering all the positions of the references and the first positions, respectively. It concludes by the validity of the proposal for contextualizing the data analyzed and considering the best distribution of cited authors mentioned in the corpus
Conversaciones y contagios : ¿Qué ocurre en una escritura colectiva cruzada por los encuentros "sábados con Deleuze"?
No full textEste ensaio é fruto dos encontros do grupo de estudos “Sábados com Deleuze”, ocorridos de 2015 a 2019, na Universidade Federal de Santa Maria – RS/Brasil, com o objetivo de problematizar as conversações e os contágios que as obras estudadas dispararam no encontro com práticas artísticas e a pesquisa em educação. Algumas imagens compõem o texto, dando expressão às experimentações que ocorreram nesse sentido ao longo dos encontros de estudos. Em uma movimentação biografemática (BARTHES, 2003), este trabalho foi produzido a oito mãos, isto é, por quatro singularidades povoadas por uma polifonia de vozes que ressoam e são sinalizadas nesta escrita como: 1º, 2º, 3º e 4º par de mãos. Cada autor/a tecia sua escrita e enviava para o par subsequente, explorando regiões ainda não imaginadas. As zonas textuais resultantes desse procedimento de escrileitura (CORAZZA, 2008) intentam convidar o/a leitor/a a explorar modos de ver, ler, escrever, viver na academia em inter-relação com arte e filosofia enquanto campos de criação.This essay results from the meetings of a study group called “Saturdays with Deleuze” and held from 2015 to 2019 at Universidade Federal de Santa Maria - RS/Brazil, aiming to problematize the conversations and the contamination triggered by the works studied in the encounter with artistic practices and research in education. Some images populate the text, giving expression to the experiments that took place in this regard during the study meetings. In a biographematic move (BARTHES, 2003), this work was produced by eight hands, that is by four singularities inhabited by polyphony that resonates and is signaled in this writing as: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th sets of hands. Each author wove his or her own writing and sent the text to the next pair of hands, exploring regions not yet imagined. The textual zones resulting from this writing-reading procedure (CORAZZA, 2008) intend to invite the reader to explore ways of seeing, reading, writing, living in the academy in interrelationship with art and philosophy as fields of creation.Este ensayo es el resultado de las reuniones del grupo de estudio “Sábados con Deleuze”, realizados de 2015 a 2019, la Universidade Federal de Santa Maria - RS/Brasil, con el objetivo de problematizar las conversaciones y contagios que desencadenaron los trabajos estudiados en el encuentro con las prácticas artísticas y la investigación en educación. Algunas imágenes componen el texto, dando expresión a los experimentos que se realizaron al respecto durante las reuniones de estudio. En un movimiento biografemático (BARTHES, 2003), esta obra fue producida por ocho manos, es decir, por cuatro singularidades pobladas por una polifonía de voces que resuenan y se señalan en este escrito como: 1º, 2º, 3º y 4º par de manos. Cada autor/a tejió su escritura y la envió a la persona siguiente, explorando regiones aún no imaginadas. Las zonas textuales resultantes de este procedimiento de escritura-lectura (CORAZZA, 2008) pretenden invitar al lector/a a explorar modos de ver, leer, escribir, vivir en la academia en interrelación con el arte y la filosofía como campos de creación
Métodos de seleção de autores para estudos de cocitação: como definir um ponto de corte
No full textThe paper focuses on author co-citation analysis - ACA, particularly presenting a proposal to define the selection of authors. Objectives: a) to compare total citation, citation per citing document and author's co-citation with himself, to define the most appropriate indicator for inclusion of authors; and b) to propose a way to establish a cut-off point for creating of the matrices. Two data sets, retrieved from the Web of Science, were used: set A, composed of 17,992 references from 421 articles; Set B,composed of 5,771 references from 151 articles. The citation per citing document is more appropriate to classify authors than the total number of citations and author's co-citation with himself. To include authors whose citations by citing documents reach approximately 20% proved to be appropriate, but authors cited only once, which constitute absolute dispersion data, should not be included in the calculations. Regarding the data in Set A, 180 authors (20.6% of the sum of citations) and 72 authors (20.1% of the sum of citations) were defined, considering all the positions of the references and the first positions, respectively. It concludes by the validity of the proposal for contextualizing the data analyzed and considering the best distribution of cited authors mentioned in the corpus.Trata da análise de cocitação de autores - ACA, mais especificamente apresenta uma proposta para definir a seleção de autores. Objetivos: a) comparar dados de citação total, citação por documento citante e cocitação de autor com ele mesmo, para definir o indicador mais apropriado para a seleção; e b) propor uma forma para estabelecer um ponto de corte para a criação das matrizes. Dois conjuntos de dados, recuperados na Web of Science, foram utilizados: conjunto A, composto de 17.992 referências de 421 artigos, Conjunto B. composto de 5.771 referências de 151 artigos. A citação por documento citante é mais apropriada para classificar os autores do que as citações totais e a cocitação do autor com ele mesmo. Incluir autores cujas citações por documentos citantes somadas atingem aproximadamente 20% mostrou-se apropriado, mas autores citados uma única vez não devem fazer parte dos cálculos. Nos dados do Conjunto A, foram definidos 180 autores (20,6% da soma das citações) e 72 autores (20,1% da soma das citações), considerando as todas as posições de autoria das referências e as primeiras posições, respectivamente. Conclui-se pela validade da proposta por contextualizar os dados analisados diante do todo e considerar a melhor distribuição dos autores citados no corpus
Desenvolvimento das habilidades sociais em crianças por meio da educação assistida por animais
No full textAnimal-Assisted Education (AAE) is an approach that uses animals as part of teaching strategies and can be applied to various groups, including children with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). Children with ASD often show difficulties in social skills, a central aspect of this study, which aimed to investigate the benefits of AAE for four children—two aged two years and two aged three—who were in the process of being investigated for social difficulties, in a municipality in the West of Paraná. The AAE sessions were planned collaboratively betweeneducation professionals and the project team, and conducted in a municipal school with an approximate duration of 50 minutes per session. The students, identified as A, B, C, and D, were assessed in stages, with and without the presence of a beta fish, referred to as the co-therapist. The qualitative research used field diary records and a structured interview guide focusing on social skills, developed by the author. The results showed improvements in the children’s concentration, focus, self-esteem, communication, and reduction in anxiety.A educação assistida por animais (EAA) é uma abordagem que utiliza animais como parte de estratégias de ensino, podendo ser aplicada a diversos públicos, incluindo crianças com Transtorno do Espectro Autista (TEA). Crianças com TEA frequentemente apresentam fragilidades nas habilidades sociais, um aspecto central neste estudo, que teve como objetivo investigar os benefícios da EAA em quatro crianças, duas de dois anos e duas de três anos, que estavam em processo de investigação quanto a esses indicadores dedificuldades sociais, em um município do Oeste do Paraná. As sessões de EAA foram planejadas de forma colaborativa entre profissionais da educação e a equipe do projeto, e realizadas em uma escola municipal com duração aproximada de 50 minutos cada. Os alunos, identificados como A, B, C e D, foram avaliados em etapas, com e sem a presença de um peixe beta, denominado co-terapeuta. A pesquisa, de caráter qualitativo, utilizou registros de diário de campo e um roteiro de entrevista estruturada focado nas habilidades sociais, elaborado pela autora.La educación asistida por animales (AAS) es un enfoque que utiliza animales como parte de las estrategias de enseñanza y se puede aplicar a diferentes públicos, incluidos los niños con trastorno del espectro autista (TEA). Los niños con TEA a menudo presentan debilidades en las habilidades sociales, un aspecto central de este estudio, que tuvo como objetivo investigar los beneficios de la EAA en cuatro niños, dos de dos años y dos de tres años,que estaban siendo sometidos a investigación sobre estos indicadores de difi-cultades sociales. en un municipio del oeste de Paraná. Las sesiones de EAA se planifica-ron en colaboración entre profesionales de la educación y el equipo del proyecto, y se llevaron a cabo en una escuela municipal, con una duración aproximada de 50 minutos cada una. Los estudiantes, identificados como A, B, C y D, fueron evaluados por etapas, con y sin la presencia de un pez beta, llamado coterapeuta. La investigación, de carácter cualitativo, utilizó registros de diario de campo y un guión de entrevista estructurado cen-trado en habilidades sociales, elaborado por el autor. Los resultados indicaron que los niños mostraron mejoras en la concentración, enfoque, autoestima, comunicación y re-ducción de la ansiedad. Se concluye que la EAA puede ser una intervención eficaz en el entorno escolar, ofreciendo beneficios significativos para los niños con TEA, especial-mente en la promoción de las habilidades sociales
The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010–19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
No full text© 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licenseBackground: Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods: The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk–outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings: Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01–4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0–116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3–48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1–45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60–3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8–54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36–1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5–41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6–28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8–25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9–42·8] and 33·3% [25·8–42·0]). Interpretation: The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
National-level and state-level prevalence of overweight and obesity among children, adolescents, and adults in the USA, 1990–2021, and forecasts up to 2050
No full textBackground: Over the past several decades, the overweight and obesity epidemic in the USA has resulted in a significant health and economic burden. Understanding current trends and future trajectories at both national and state levels is crucial for assessing the success of existing interventions and informing future health policy changes. We estimated the prevalence of overweight and obesity from 1990 to 2021 with forecasts to 2050 for children and adolescents (aged 5–24 years) and adults (aged ≥25 years) at the national level. Additionally, we derived state-specific estimates and projections for older adolescents (aged 15–24 years) and adults for all 50 states and Washington, DC. Methods: In this analysis, self-reported and measured anthropometric data were extracted from 134 unique sources, which included all major national surveillance survey data. Adjustments were made to correct for self-reporting bias. For individuals older than 18 years, overweight was defined as having a BMI of 25 kg/m2 to less than 30 kg/m2 and obesity was defined as a BMI of 30 kg/m2 or higher, and for individuals younger than 18 years definitions were based on International Obesity Task Force criteria. Historical trends of overweight and obesity prevalence from 1990 to 2021 were estimated using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. A generalised ensemble modelling approach was then used to derive projected estimates up to 2050, assuming continuation of past trends and patterns. All estimates were calculated by age and sex at the national level, with estimates for older adolescents (aged 15–24 years) and adults aged (≥25 years) also calculated for 50 states and Washington, DC. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of the posterior distributions of the respective estimates. Findings: In 2021, an estimated 15·1 million (95% UI 13·5–16·8) children and young adolescents (aged 5–14 years), 21·4 million (20·2–22·6) older adolescents (aged 15–24 years), and 172 million (169–174) adults (aged ≥25 years) had overweight or obesity in the USA. Texas had the highest age-standardised prevalence of overweight or obesity for male adolescents (aged 15–24 years), at 52·4% (47·4–57·6), whereas Mississippi had the highest for female adolescents (aged 15–24 years), at 63·0% (57·0–68·5). Among adults, the prevalence of overweight or obesity was highest in North Dakota for males, estimated at 80·6% (78·5–82·6), and in Mississippi for females at 79·9% (77·8–81·8). The prevalence of obesity has outpaced the increase in overweight over time, especially among adolescents. Between 1990 and 2021, the percentage change in the age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased by 158·4% (123·9–197·4) among male adolescents and 185·9% (139·4–237·1) among female adolescents (15–24 years). For adults, the percentage change in prevalence of obesity was 123·6% (112·4–136·4) in males and 99·9% (88·8–111·1) in females. Forecast results suggest that if past trends and patterns continue, an additional 3·33 million children and young adolescents (aged 5–14 years), 3·41 million older adolescents (aged 15–24 years), and 41·4 million adults (aged ≥25 years) will have overweight or obesity by 2050. By 2050, the total number of children and adolescents with overweight and obesity will reach 43·1 million (37·2–47·4) and the total number of adults with overweight and obesity will reach 213 million (202–221). In 2050, in most states, a projected one in three adolescents (aged 15–24 years) and two in three adults (≥25 years) will have obesity. Although southern states, such as Oklahoma, Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, West Virginia, and Kentucky, are forecast to continue to have a high prevalence of obesity, the highest percentage changes from 2021 are projected in states such as Utah for adolescents and Colorado for adults. Interpretation: Existing policies have failed to address overweight and obesity. Without major reform, the forecasted trends will be devastating at the individual and population level, and the associated disease burden and economic costs will continue to escalate. Stronger governance is needed to support and implement a multifaceted whole-system approach to disrupt the structural drivers of overweight and obesity at both national and local levels. Although clinical innovations should be leveraged to treat and manage existing obesity equitably, population-level prevention remains central to any intervention strategies, particularly for children and adolescents. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens
Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
No full textBackground: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens
