57,825 research outputs found
Evolving Phillips trade-off
No full textWe characterise the evolution of the U.S. unemployment-inflation trade-off since the late XIX century era via a Bayesian time-varying parameters structural VAR. The Great Inflation episode appears as historically unique along several dimensions. In particular, the shape of the ‘Phillips loop’–which is defined in terms of the impulse-response functions of inflation and unemployment’s deviations from equilibrium–was, during those years, clearly out of line with respect to the rest of the sample period for all structural innovations except money demand shocks. During the Great Depression, on the other hand, the Phillips trade-off did not exhibit any peculiar qualitative feature, so that, when seen through these lenses, the 1930s only stand out because of the sheer size of the macroeconomic fluctuation. The historical evolution of the Phillips trade-off exhibits virtually no connection with the evolution of the extent of trade openness of the U.S. economy. Although, by itself, this does not rule out a possible impact of globalisation on the slope of the trade-off in recent years, it clearly suggests that, historically, the evolution of the trade-off has been dominated by factors other than trade openness. JEL Classification: E30, E32Bayesian VARs, Globalisation, Great Depression, Great Inflation, identified VARs, Lucas Critique, Phillips trade-off, stochastic volatility, time-varying parameters
A tour through the principal provinces of Spain and Portugal : performed in the year 1803 with cursory observations on the manners of the inhabitants
No full textSign.: A-K4La hoja plegada de mapa es: "Spain and Portugal. Published, March I, 1809 by R. Phillips ... London
A taxa de inflação e a utilização da capacidade instalada: a curva de Phillips para o Brasil de 2003 a 2014
No full textTCC (graduação) - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina. Centro Sócio-Econômico. Economia.Este estudo tem como objetivo a estimação de uma curva de Phillips brasileira no período 2003-2014 empregando dados relativos à inflação e à utilização da capacidade instalada. A Curva de Phillips foi estimada a partir da metodologia de Mínimos Quadrados Ordinários. A inflação foi especificada como função da expectativa inflacionária, da utilização da capacidade instalada e do repasse cambial. Os resultados demonstraram que, para o período, e com os dados utilizados, a taxa de inflação é influenciada tanto pela primeira diferença da expectativa inflacionária em t quanto pela primeira diferença da expectativa inflacionária em t-1, a utilização da capacidade instalada apresentou um relacionamento ambíguo e o repasse cambial não se mostrou significante na explicação da taxa de inflação da economia brasileira. A conclusão do trabalho foi de que a curva de Phillips, para o período examinado e com a utilização da capacidade como proxy da atividade econômica, não explica a dinâmica dos preços no Brasil (SACHSIDA; RIBEIRO; SANTOS; 2009). Chega-se a esse desfecho após a utilização da capacidade instalada não apresentar um comportamento satisfatório quando relacionada à taxa de inflação
Gibt es eine stabile Phillips-Kurve in Österreich?
No full textGibt es eine stabile Phillips-Kurve in Österreich?
The Phillips Curve. A Classical Perspective
No full textEn este artículo planteamos que la relación entre los salarios y el desempleo codificada en la Curva de Phillips original (CP) (Phillips, 1958) puede estudiarse mejor desde la perspectiva analítica postulada por la economía política clásica que en los términos expresados en la hipótesis NAIRU (Friedman, 1968, 1977). Nuestra hipótesis radica en que es posible postular una versión clásica de la CP en la que la tasa de crecimiento de la productividad afecta positivamente al salario real. Para contrastar la hipótesis realizamos un análisis econométrico con datos de Alemania, España, Estados Unidos y Francia. Los resultados empíricos sugieren que es posible encontrar una correlación como la que postulamos.It is argued in this paper that a Classical Political Economy rendition of the original Phillips Curve (PC) (Phillips, 1958) provides a better understanding of the relationship between real wages and the rate of unemployment than the NAIRU hypothesis put forth by Friedman (1968, 1977). Hence a ‘Classical’ PC is here entertained to show the positive effect of increasing productivity on real wages. Our hypothesis is empirically tested using data for Germany, Spain, the United States and France. And the econometric results show the existence of high correlation between the variables emphasized by the Classical PC.Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales (ICEI)TRUEpu
Measuring the Natural Output Gap Using Actual and Expected Output Data
No full textAn output gap measure is suggested based on a multivariate Beveridge-Nelson decomposition of output using a vector-autoregressive model that includes data on actual output and on expected output obtained from surveys. The gap is estimated using an integrated approach to identifying permanent and different types of transitory shocks to output. The gap has a statistical basis but is provided economic meaning by relating it to natural output in DSGE models. The approach is applied to quarterly US data over 1970q1-2007q4. Estimated gaps have sensible statistical properties and perform well in explaining inflation in estimates of New Keynesian Phillips curves.Trend Output, Natural Output Level, Output Gap, Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition, Survey-based Expectations, New Keynesian Phillips Curve.
La curva de phillips: una digresión.
No full textLa Curva de Phillips, desde el artículo original: "La Relación entre el Desempleo y la Tasa de Cambio de los Salarios Monetarios en el Reino Unido 1861-1957' publicado en Económica en Noviembre de 1958, ha creado una gran conmoción en la literatura macroeconómica. Tal conmoción, tal vez, se origine en que, como sostiene Mankiw: "la Curva de Phillips vino de ninguna parte; es solamente una descripción empírica que se manifestó correcta en los datos sin ninguna buena teoría especial que explique por qué mostraba esa forma particular, en qué forma podría cambiar en respuesta a acciones de política económica y bajo qué circunstancias podía volverse inestable" (Snowdon y Vane, 2005: 438)1 .Este trabajo se propone intentar la inclusión de la Curva de Phillips en el marco de la teoría macroeconómica mediante el procedimiento de derivar las variables relacionadas principalmente con la Oferta Agregada (OA). Se incluyen también algunas pruebas econométricas
Estimating the Phillips Curve in Iran, a Comparative Method
No full textNowadays, the relationship between inflation and unemployment is known as the Phillips curve. Since this curve is an important indicator of the economic relationship between the unemployment and inflation, much attention has been paid to it. Phillips showed an inverse relationship between unemployment and wage rates being paid, so that the decline in the unemployment rate leads to an increase in wage rates or prices. In this study, we estimate the Phillips curve for inflation and unemployment rates in Iran by using a time series data from 1996-2012 and by using comparative method. We conclude that this model can be either logarithmic – linear or linear- logarithmic best model to the Phillips curve in Iran
El escaso poder predictivo de simples curvas de Phillips en Chile
No full textEn este trabajo se explora la existencia, robustez y magnitud del eventual aporte que
puedan tener diversas medidas de actividad en la tarea de predecir inflación en Chile,
sobre la base de algunas versiones retrospectivas (backward-looking) de curvas de Phillips
estimadas tanto con datos revisados como con datos en tiempo real. Los principales
resultados confirman los hallazgos de la literatura reciente a nivel internacional: el aporte
predictivo de las medidas de actividad aquí consideradas es episódico, inestable y de
magnitud moderada. Este precario aporte predictivo es robusto a la utilización de datos
definitivos y en tiempo real
Measuring the Natural Output Gap using Actual and Expected Output Data
No full textAn output gap measure is suggested based on the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition of output using a vector-autoregressive model that includes data on actual output and on expected output obtained from surveys. The paper explains the advantages of using survey data in business cycle analysis and the gap is provided economic meaning by relating it to the natural level of output defined in Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models. The measure is applied to quarterly US data over the period 1970q1-2007q4 and the resultant gap estimates are shown to have sensible statistical properties and perform well in explaining inflation in estimates of New Keynesian Phillips curves.Trend Output; Natural Output Level; Output Gap; Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition; Survey-based Expectations; New Keynesian Phillips Curve
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