1,720,996 research outputs found
Social Security and the Equity Premium Puzzle [Elektronisk resurs]
No full textThis paper shows that social security may be an important factor in explaining the equity premium puzzle. In the absence of shortselling constraints, the young shortsell bonds to the middle-aged and buy equity. Social security reduces the bond demand of the middle-aged, thereby restricting the possibilities of the young to finance their equity purchases. Their equity demand increases as does the average return to equity. Social security also increases the covariance between future consumption and the equity income of the young. The effect on the equity premium is substantial. In fact, a model with social security and borrowing constraints can generate a fairly realistic equity premium.</p
The Welfare Gains of Improving Risk Sharing in Social Security
Full text linkThis paper shows that improved intergenerational risk sharing in social security may imply very large welfare gains, amounting to up to 15 percent of the per-period consumption relative to the current U.S. consumption. Improved risk sharing raises welfare through a direct effect, i.e., by correcting an initially inefficient allocation of risk, and through a general equilibrium (GE) effect. The GE effect is due to the fact that the allocation of risk in the pay-as-you-go system influences the demand for capital. As a result, with an efficient risk sharing arrangement, the crowding out effect associated with an unfunded system can actually be completely eliminated. Efficient risk sharing in social security implies highly volatile and pro-cyclical benefits, i.e., that retirees' exposure to productivity risk is increased. Consequently, a policy involving completely safe benefits will unambiguously be welfare reducing.Social security; Risk sharing
Optimal taxation with home production
Full text linkOptimal taxes for Europe and the U.S. are derived in a realistically calibrated model in which agents buy consumption goods and services and use home capital and labor to produce household services. The optimal tax rate on services is substantially lower than the tax rate on goods. Specifically, the planner cannot tax home production directly and instead lowers the tax rate on market services to increase the relative price of home production. The optimal tax rate on the return to home capital is strictly positive and the welfare gains from switching to optimal taxes are large
Quantifying the risk-sharing welfare gains of social security
No full textThe welfare effects of intergenerational risk sharing through a pay-as-you-go social security system that is efficiently indexed to wages or interest rates are quantified. Comparing steady states, there are large welfare gains of being born into an economy with efficient risk sharing as compared to the current U.S. system. Efficient policy involves an increasingly risky net of tax income over the life cycle. When adjustment to steady state is taken into account, the welfare gains largely turn negative. The results are also compared and contrasted to the first best allocation.</p
How does a pay-as-you-go system affect asset returns and the equity premium?
No full textWhen applying a differences-in-differences approach, equity returns and the equity premium are both estimated to be more than four percentage points higher after the introduction of a pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) system. In a realistically calibrated model, the PAYGO system is also found to increase the returns and the premium, although the effects are smaller than in the data. Intuitively, the system lowers asset prices, which in turn increases the importance of dividend risk. Since only equity is subject to dividend risk, equity returns become more volatile relative to bond returns.</p
Social Security and the Equity Premium Puzzle
No full textThis paper shows that social security may be an important factor in explaining the equity premium puzzle. In the absence of shortselling constraints, the young shortsell bonds to the middle-aged and buy equity. Social security reduces the bond demand of the middle-aged, thereby restricting the possibilities of the young to finance their equity purchases. Their equity demand increases as does the average return to equity. Social security also increases the covariance between future consumption and the equity income of the young. The effect on the equity premium is substantial. In fact, a model with social security and borrowing constraints can generate a fairly realistic equity premium
Oil prices in a real-business-cycle model with precautionary demand for oil
No full textThis paper analyzes the interaction between oil prices and macroeconomic outcomes by incorporating oil as an input in production alongside a precautionary motive for holding oil in a real-business-cycle model. The driving forces are factor-specific technology shocks and supply shocks that can be imprecisely forecasted by noisy news shock. These shocks explain most of the U.S. business cycle as well as the empirical distribution of oil prices. Oil shocks are mainly driven by increasing precautionary/smoothing demand, but supply shocks contribute substantially to both the oil-price volatility and the magnitude of oil shocks mainly through their effect on oil reserves
The CO2 market failure: it’s free to emit but has costly consequences
No full textThere is now scientific consensus that humans affect the climate by emitting greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, and that this contributes to global warming. The most important greenhouse gas resulting from human activity is carbon dioxide (CO2), and it is generated as a by-product when fossil fuel is burnt. Even though it is clear that CO2 emissions contribute to global [...
Social Security and the Equity Premium Puzzle
Full text linkThis paper shows that social security may be an important factor in explaining the equity premium puzzle. In the absence of shortselling constraints, the young shortsell bonds to the middle-aged and buy equity. Social security reduces the bond demand of the middle-aged, thereby restricting the possibilities of the young to finance their equity purchases. They demand less equity and the return to equity goes up. Social security also increases the covariance between future consumption and the equity income of the young. The efect on the equity premium is substantial. In fact, a model with social security and borrowing constraints can generate a fairly realistic equity premium.Asset prices; the equity premium puzzle; social security
Why do Europeans Work so Little? [Elektronisk resurs]
No full textMarket work per person is roughly 10 percent higher in the U.S. than in Sweden. However, if we include the work carried out in home production, the total amount of work only differs by 1 percent. I set up a model with home production, and show that differences in policy – mainly taxes – can account for the discrepancy in labor supply between Sweden and the U.S. Moreover, even though the elasticity of labor supply is rather low for individual households, labor taxes are estimated to be associated with considerable output losses. I also show that policy can account for the falling trend in market work in Sweden since 1960. The largest reduction occurs from 1960 until around d1980. both in the model and the data. After the early 1980s, the trends for both taxes and actual hours worked are basically flat. This is also true for hours worked in the model.</p
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