1,720,966 research outputs found
Tourism Facilities as a case study for Group-PAHP Consistency checks during the Covid-19 Epidemic.
No full textThe COVID-19 pandemic crisis brought to light the world's tourist systems' high suscep-tibility and defined a scenario marked by significant uncertainty, bad prospects, and per-vasive fragility. In our research, we suggest using MultiCriteria Decision Aiding (MCDA) to examine the possibility of local territorial development through the enhance-ment of the tourism infrastructure. To be more specific, we suggest applying the Parsi-monious AHP (Abastante et al. 2019) for group decisions to study a problem involving the upgrading of tourism facilities. There might be issues with judgment consistency, which would affect the consistency of the matrices as the complexity of the decision-making problem and the number of decision-makers increase (Brunelli and Cavallo 2020a). In the real world, consistency is difficult to attain
Checking consistency for Group-PAHP: a case study of tourism facilities in COVID-19 pandemic
No full textThe pandemic situation due COVID-19 highlighted a great vulnerability of tourism systems in the world, defined a scenario characterized by strong uncertainties, unfavorable prospects and widespread fragility (Michie 2020). Our work proposes the use of Multi-Criteria Decision Aiding (MCDA) for analyzing the potentiality of local territory development through the improvement of the tourism facilities. More precisely, we propose the use of the Parsimonious AHP (Abastante et al. 2019) for group choices to analyze a decision-making problem for the improvement of tourism facilities. As the complexity of the decision-making problem and the number of decision-makers grow, there may be problems of consistency of judgments and therefore problems of consistency of the matrices (Brunelli and Cavallo 2020a). Consistency is difficult to achieve in the real situation (Maturo et al. 2005). Our work aims to verify in a 4-step process the errors of consistency that occurs in Pairwise Comparison Matrices with the use of Parsimonious AHP for group choices. Furthermore, we propose a new innovative tool for decision makers to tackle complex problems, with multiple decision categories, a large number of alternatives and several criteria
The Logic of Probability: A Trip through Uncertainty
Full text linkIn real life we have to deal with uncertainty, imprecision and vagueness. Many ideas were introduced and studied in detail to manage with these problems. Now we briefly expose the main formal concepts which describe non-ideal situations, i.e. Probability, Statistics and Fuzzy Logic. Probability has recent origins with respect to other branches of mathematics which have deep roots in the past, like geometry or algebra.We may say all this started with Antoine Gombaud, Chevalier de Méré (1607–1684), who asked Blaise Pascal (1623–1662) about gambling with dice. The correspondence between Pierre de Fermat and Blaise Pascal, which began in 1654, initially on these questions, led to the introduction of basic concepts, i.e. probability and expectation. Only in 1657, Christian Huygens in "De Ratiociniis in ludo aleae" proposed a first systematic study of the new branch of mathematics. However, the need of an axiomatic construction of the theory of probability arose to analyze more general and complex situations than gambling. A strong formalization was supplied by the monograph "Foundations of the theory of probability" (1933) by Andrey Nikolaevich Kolmogorov.Statistics represent the most popular application of probability theory, providing research tools in several areas, including physical and natural sciences, technology, psychology, economics and medicine. Statistics are the bridge that connects experimental data to the mathematical theory behind itself.Fuzzy logic, sometime confused with probability, wants to express and formalize all the sentences which are not true or false at all; the philosophical idea is that "everything is a matter of degree" (Zadeh).
La logica della probabilità: un viaggio attraverso l’incertezza
Nella vita reale ci si trova di fronte a molte situazioni caratterizzate da incertezza, imprecisione, vaghezza. Sono state introdotte diverse modellizzazioni per il trattamento di tali concetti e problemi. Ci proponiamo di esporre sinteticamente alcuni lineamenti fondamentali di Probabilità, Statistica e Fuzzy Logic.La probabilità ha origini recenti rispetto alle altre branche della matematica che hanno profonde radici nel passato, come la geometria o l’algebra.Possiamo dire che un passaggio iniziale importante si è avuto con Antoine Gombaud, Chevalier de Méré (1607-1684), che pose a Blaise Pascal (1623-1662) una questione riguardante il gioco dei dadi. La corrispondenza tra Pierre de Fermat e Blaise Pascal, che ha avuto inizio nel 1654, su questioni simili, ha portato all'introduzione di concetti di base, come probabilità e aspettativa. Successivamente Christian Huygens, in "De ludo Ratiociniis in aleae", ha proposto un primo studio sistematico della nuova branca della matematica. Tuttavia, la necessità di una costruzione assiomatica della teoria della probabilità sorse per l’esigenza di analizzare situazioni più generali e complesse rispetto al gioco d'azzardo. Una forte formalizzazione è stata fornita dalla monografia "Fondamenti della teoria della probabilità" (1933) di Andrey Nikolaevich Kolmogorov.La statistica rappresenta l'applicazione più popolare della teoria della probabilità, fornendo strumenti di ricerca in diversi settori, tra cui le scienze fisiche e naturali, la tecnologia, la psicologia, l'economia e la medicina. In un certo senso essa rappresenta il ponte che collega i dati sperimentali con la teoria matematica.La Logica Fuzzy, da non confondere con la probabilità, si occupa del trattamento formale delle proposizioni di cui non si può affermare senza ambiguità che siano vere o false; l'idea filosofica è che "tutto è una questione di gradualità" (Zadeh).
Parole Chiave: Incertezza, Probabilità, Statistica, Fuzz
An age-based dynamic approach for distribution of perishable commodities with stochastic demands
No full textIn the operational, strategic and tactical decision-making problems of the agri-food supply chain, the perishable nature of the commodities can represent a problem of particular complexity. It is therefore appropriate to consider decision support tools that take into account the characteristics of the products, the needs and requirements of producers, sellers and final consumers. The paper presents an age-based model for the inventory-routing problem of perishable commodities with stochastic demands. In particular, we propose a dynamic decision-making approach with a "moving" horizon that advances over time taking into account the more recent available information. This approach allows future decisions to be rescheduled in relation to new data, over a planning horizon of the same duration. To address a problem as realistic as possible, we assume that the demand for products of each age is unknown and we model this uncertainty by means of random variables with a probability distribution that can be estimated from historical data. Computational experiments on test cases based on a real-life agri-food company located in Southern Italy show the effectiveness of the proposed approach
Comparing inconsistency of pairwise comparison matrices depending on entries
Full text linkPairwise comparisons have been a long-standing technique for comparing alternatives/criteria and their role has been pivotal in the development of modern decision-making methods. Since several types of pairwise comparison matrices (e.g., multiplicative, additive, fuzzy) are proposed in literature, in this paper, we investigate, for which type of matrix, decision-makers are more coherent when they express their subjective preferences. By performing an experiment, we found that the additive approach provides the worst level of coherence
Circular economy in the Public Administration: the case of Italian University at the time of COVID 19. A Multicriteria approach.
No full textIn response tol the Covid 19 pandemic emergency, universities found themselves to rethink the way of doing university. They have veered towards new circular economy models capable of actively involving users by strengthening the right of access to information and services through sustainable digitization. production systems with greater involvement of the territories. Our work uses multi-criteria methods to analyze the actions of universities to face the Covid 19 pandemic emergency. In particular, the study analyzes the choices on the reorganization of the main services offered to students with a particular focus on teaching. The actions considered from a digital sustainability point of view for teaching aim at the use of technologies not only to remotize the lessons but with a view that technology can be of support in the redesign of the didactic paths in their complexity
Le decisioni. Un percorso interdisciplinare per introdurre e utilizzare strumenti matematici
No full textLe decisioni. Un percorso interdisciplinare per introdurre e utilizzare strumenti matematici.
No full textInformation and Intertemporal Choices in Multi-Agent Decision Problems
Full text linkPsychological evidences of impulsivity and false consensus effect lead results far from rationality. It is shown that impulsivitymodifies the discount function of each individual, and false consensus effect increases the degree of consensus in a multi-agent decision problem. Analyzing them together we note that in strategic interactions these two human factors involve choices which change equilibriums expected by rational individuals
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