1,720,961 research outputs found
Oil prices and exchange rates dynamics in South Africa.
No full textMasters Degree. University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban.The study examines the dynamics between oil prices and exchange rates in an oil-importing country to guide policymakers in their decision making. Furthermore, findings from this study seeks to decision makers to make informed and effective control measures. For this reason, this paper studies the effect of oil prices and oil price volatility on the rand-to-dollar exchange rate. It uses South African monthly data from 2000: M1 to 2023: M12, accessed from the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis (FRED) and the World Bank. It employs the Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) Model and further computes impulse responses and the forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD). The main findings of the study show that South African nominal exchange rates respond asymmetrically to changes in oil prices and that they tend to respond more to negative oil price shocks. The response of the South African nominal effective exchange rate to oil prices contradicts several author’s work. The results further show that oil price volatilities cause the South African rand to depreciate
The impact of exchange rate misalignments on economic growth of the South African Customs Union.
Get PDFMaster of Commerce in Economics. University of KwaZulu-Natal, Westville 2015.The dissertation examines the impact of exchange rate misalignments on the economic growth of five countries in the SACU region: South Africa, Lesotho, Namibia, Swaziland and Botswana, using annual data from 1995 to 2012. First and second generation unit root tests are used in order to take into account the existence of structural breaks and cross-sectional dependence. After determining the existence of a cointegration relationship using both Pedroni (2004) and Westerlund (2007) tests, exchange rate misalignments are computed as a deviation of exchange rates from their long-run determinants; estimated using the Pesaran et al.(1997; 1999) mean-group and pooled mean-group. We found that by using the mean-group estimator, the different currencies are overvalued as suggested by Asfaha and Huda (2002) and Saayman (2007), for both the South African and Botswanan currency. Focusing on the results from the mean group, as this estimator is efficient in the presence of cross-sectional dependence in the data, we assessed the impact of misalignment on economic growth using the system-GMM due to the existence of autocorrelation and endogeneity. We found that exchange rate misalignments are not significant in explaining economic growth, even when controlling for terms of trade and openness
Investigating South Africa’s exposure to potential currency crises.
No full textMasters Degree. University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban.This study investigates South Africa's potential exposure to currency crises, aiming to identify effective economic indicators for anticipating such crises. Using annual data from 1994 to 2020, a probit model analysis and the Market Turbulence Index (MTI) are employed to facilitate this investigation. The results suggest that none of the 10 variables identified in empirical literature have predictive power in the South African context. The insignificant findings can be attributed to data frequency restrictions, as annual data was used instead of daily, weekly, or monthly data
due to limited public access to monthly statistics. The study concludes that the modelling approach employed may not be helpful for policymakers and central banks in predicting currency crises in South Africa. However, the use of higher frequency data and additional variables, such as political instability, may improve the significance and predictability of currency crises. Despite the insignificant results, the study highlights the potential adoption of the MTI in identifying crisis thresholds. With higher frequency data and more influential variables, this study can contribute significantly to the literature, particularly in a country like South Africa with a volatile economic climate
The monetary model of exchange rate behaviour: the case of South Africa = Isifanekisomali esiphathelene nendlela yokuhwebelana kwamazwe: okucwaningwayo eNingizimu Afrika.
No full textDoctoral Degree. University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban.The exchange rates behaviour has been a topic of interest in the macroeconomics literature. Despite the extensive body of the literature on the subject, the exchange rates movement remains controversial. In the previous 40 years, economists developed theories that intended to explain the behaviour of the floating exchange rates. However, the empirical results have not been consistent with the predictions of the theories. South Africa has also had challenges with its exchange rate behaviour since the beginning of World War I. Over the years, the monetary authorities tried various methods of managing the factors believed to influence the behaviour of the domestic exchange rates. The main problem of the domestic exchange rates has been constant depreciation. The domestic exchange rates continue to depreciate even to this day despite the efforts. This study focuses on the relationship of some monetary variables that are believed have effect on the behaviour of the exchange rates. The economic theory supports the link between monetary variables and the exchange rates behaviour. However, the relationship between domestic exchange rates fundamentals seems to diverge from what is expected. As noted, the literature fails to link the exchange rates with its fundamentals. In this study we use non-linear estimations to model the interaction between the macroeconomic fundamentals and the domestic exchange rates which are Markov Switching model, Bayesian VAR and Threshold Autoregressive model. Firstly, the study found that private information which is not observed might have more effect on the exchange rates behaviour than expectations of exchange rates. Secondly, we found that expectations of income have an impact on the domestic exchange rates in some occasions. While in other situations, the domestic exchange rates behaviour cannot be linked with the fundamentals. Lastly, the domestic exchange rates behaviour responds to interest rates differential, domestic debt and political uncertainty when the exchange rate fluctuation is relatively stable. When the domestic exchange rates are appreciating, only the interest rate differential can explain the domestic exchange rates behaviour. Furthermore, the domestic exchange rates response is asymmetric to effects of expectations.
Iqoqa.
Indlela yokuhwebelana kwamazwe isihloko esihlaba umxhwele emibhalweni ethinta ezomnotho wonkana. Ngaphandle nje kobuningi bemibhalo ngesifundo, umnyakazo wokuhwebelana kwamazwe uhlala uyimpambankwici. Eminyakeni engama-40 eyadlula, osomnotho basungula izinjulalwazi ezihlose ukuchaza indlela entantayo yokuhwebelana kwamazwe. Kepha, imiphumela ebambekayo ibilokhu iyinhlalanjalo nokuqagela kwezinjulalwazi. INingizimu Afrika ibenazo futhi izinselelo mayelana nendlela yokuhwebelana kwamazwe kusukela ukuqala kwempi yokuqala yomhlaba. Emva kweminyaka, iziphathimandla zezezimali zazama izindlela ezahlukene ukungamela izimbangela ngokukholelwa kumthelela wokuhwebelana kwezwe namazwe. Inkinga enkulu yezwe mayelana nokuhwebelana kwamazwe bekuba yilokhu kwehla kwezinganani lempahla okuqhubekayo. Ukuhwebelana kwezwe namazwe kuyaqhubeka nokwehlisa izinganani lempahla.
Kulolu cwaningo sisebenzise inqubo yokulinganisa ubudlelwane bezinto phakathi kwezomnotho wonkana oyisisekelo kanye nokuhwebelana kwezwe namazwe. Amasu okulinganisa asebenzisa okungenzeka ukuqagela izisusa zokusabalalisa okubili kube yinto eyodwa eyindlela yezwe yokuhwebelana namazwe. Ekuqaleni, isifanekiso sikaMarkov Switch esisetshenziswa ukunquma imiphumela yezilinganiso zendlela yokuhwebelana kwezwe namazwe. Sithole ukuthi indlela yokuhwebelana kwezwe namazwe iyagudluka ngenkathi ukuhwebelana kwamazwe okulindelekile kuguquka. Kube nje, sekusetshenziswa isifanekiso sikaBayesian Vector Autoregressive ukuhluza umthelela wokulindelekile mayelana nengeniso lakusasa eliphathelene nendlela yokuhwebelana kwamazwe. Ekugcineni, kwasetshenziswa isifanekiso iThreshold Autoregressive ukuthola indlela yokuhwebelana kwamazwe uma kusesifanekisweni sezezimali.
Okokuqala, ucwaningo lwathola ukuthi ulwazi lwangasese olungaqashelwe lungenzeka lube namandla mayelana nendlela yokuhwebelana kwamazwe. Okwesibili, kwatholakala ukuthi okwakulindelekile okuyingeniso kwaba nomthelela endleleni yokuhwebelana kwezwe ngezikhathi ezithile. Bese kuthi kwezinye izimo, indlela yokuhwebelana kwezwe ingeze yamataniswa nalokho okuyisisekelo. Okokugcina, indlela yokuhwebelana kwamazwe iphendula ngokwehlukana kwezilinganisonani zenzalo, isikweletu sezwe kanye nokungabiko kwesiqiniseko kwezombusazwe ngesikhathi ukuhwebelana kwamazwe kunokuntengantenga nokuzinza. Ukuqhubekela phambili, ukuphendula kokuhwebelana kwezwe kunezingxenye ezingaxhumani nalokho okulindelekile. mkhaya wezilinganiso zokushintshiselana kwaba nemiphumela engalingani nokulindelekile
Macroprudential and monetary policies in South Africa: complements or substitutes?
Get PDFThe article reports on the complementarity and substitutability of Macroprudential and Monetary policies in South Africa, based on the interactions of both Business and Financial cycles. To this end, a Dynamic Conditional Correlations and the Asymmetric Dynamic Conditional Correlations MGARCH models together with the Granger Causality model, the Artificial Neural Network VAR model, and the Structural VAR model, were adopted for the analyses of synchronization, causality, and the analysis of shocks to cycles, respectively. Empirical evidence obtained is such that, under conditions of financial and real economic stress in South Africa, there exists high synchronicity and bidirectional causality between CBCI and CFCI. Hence, Macroprudential and Monetary policies become complements, there exists interdependence between the two policies and actions of one policy contributes to the improvement of the other. However, under normal times there exist no synchronicity and a unidirectional causality relationship running from CBCI to CFCI, was observed. Under such conditions, Macroprudential and Monetary policies become substitutes, therefore, the two policies become independent of each other, hence, only one policy can achieve the desired outcome. Overall, a shock to one cycle is a major determinant of the fluctuations of the other cycle
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Get PDFThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
Get PDF“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Get PDFWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts
Get PDFWe conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued
use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation
counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more
sophisticated methods
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