1,721,296 research outputs found
Modeling aggregate economic risk: An introduction
No full textNot only can disasters directly cause immense human suffering and loss, they may also lead to large medium- and long-term indirect microeconomic (household, business level) as well as macroeconomic (nation-wide) consequences. In this second section of the book, we focus on the aggregated or macroeconomic impacts of disasters, which include effects on gross domestic product, consumption, savings, investment and inflation, as well as the reallocation of resources to relief and reconstruction. Based on statistical and model-based analyses, studies have shown that these impacts can be significant in many instances
Science for Loss and Damage. Findings and Propositions
No full textThe debate on "Loss and Damage" (L&D) has gained traction over the last few years. Supported by growing scientific evidence of anthropogenic climate change amplifying frequency, intensity and duration of climate-related hazards as well as observed increases in climate-related impacts and risks in many regions, the "Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage" was established in 2013 and further supported through the Paris Agreement in 2015. Despite advances, the debate currently is broad, diffuse and somewhat confusing, while concepts, methods and tools, as well as directions for policy remain vague and often contested. This book, a joint effort of the Loss and Damage Network-a partnership effort by scientists and practitioners from around the globe-provides evidence-based insight into the L&D discourse by highlighting state-of-the-art research conducted across multiple disciplines, by showcasing applications in practice and by providing insight into policy contexts and salient policy options. This introductory chapter summarises key findings of the twenty-two book chapters in terms of five propositions. These propositions, each building on relevant findings linked to forward-looking suggestions for research, policy and practice, reflect the architecture of the book, whose sections proceed from setting the stage to critical issues, followed by a section on methods and tools, to chapters that provide geographic perspectives, and finally to a section that identifies potential policy options. The propositions comprise (1) Risk management can be an effective entry point for aligning perspectives and debates, if framed comprehensively, coupled with climate justice considerations and linked to established risk management and adaptation practice; (2) Attribution science is advancing rapidly and fundamental to informing actions to minimise, avert, and address losses and damages; (3) Climate change research, in addition to identifying physical/hard limits to adaptation, needs to more systematically examine soft limits to adaptation, for which we find some evidence across several geographies globally; (4) Climate risk insurance mechanisms can serve the prevention and cure aspects emphasised in the L&D debate but solidarity and accountability aspects need further attention, for which we find tentative indication in applications around the world; (5) Policy deliberations may need to overcome the perception that L&D constitutes a win-lose negotiation "game" by developing a more inclusive narrative that highlights collective ambition for tackling risks, mutual benefits and the role of transformation
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Full text linkThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Managing indirect economic consequences of disaster risk: The case of Nepal
No full textNatural disasters can exert significant economic and developmental impacts in countries that lack the economic resilience to bounce back post event. Yet, the brunt of these impacts often goes unrecorded and the information base for improving the financial and economic management of disaster risk in many instances is at best limited. Systematic disaster risk modeling can be a starting point for devising a comprehensive risk management approach. This chapter presents quantitative modeling analysis using the IIASA CATSIM framework for assessing economic natural disaster risk for the case of Nepal. We calculate country level direct disaster risk as well as the corresponding indirect effects using growth modeling and input-output analysis. We find the economic and fiscal risks posed by natural disasters in Nepal to be large and potentially long-lasting, particularly when they are triggered by earthquake risk. As well, disaster events ripple through the economy and may lead to important distributional effects. Given these results, we suggest there is a clear case for considering risk in economic and fiscal planning processes in Nepal and similar heavily disaster exposed countries
Variations on the Author
Full text link“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Full text linkWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
Modeling macro scale disaster risk: The CATSIM model
No full textDeveloping countries are placing increasing emphasis on improving their preparedness for and management of disaster risk. We discuss the CATSIM (CATastropheSIMulation) model developed at IIASA for assistance in such planning exercises. CATSIM represents a simple but risk-based economic framework for evaluating economic disaster impacts, and the costs and benefits of measures for reducing those impacts. CATSIM uses stochastic simulation of disaster risks in a specified region and examines the ability of the government and private sector to finance relief and recovery. The model is interactive in the sense that the user can change parameters and test different assumptions about hazards, exposure, vulnerability, general economic conditions and the government's ability to respond. As a capacity building tool it can illustrate the tradeoffs and choices government authorities are confronted with for increasing their economic resilience to the impacts of catastrophic events. The model can be used for supporting policy planning processes for the allocation of resources between ex-ante spending on disaster risk management (such as prevention, national reserve funds, sovereign insurance) and ex-post spending on relief and reconstruction. Our paper describes key model features and mechanics, and sets the stage for model applications to the Nepal and Hungary/Tisza cases discussed in this volume
Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts
Full text linkWe conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued
use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation
counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more
sophisticated methods
Catastrophe models for informing risk management policy: An introduction
No full textCatastrophe models that combine data on past occurrences with future simulations of the hazard, exposure and vulnerability, and that take account of the dynamic environment as well as correlated loss distributions, are becoming increasingly important for assessing the risks of extreme events. This volume demonstrates innovative ways for adapting catastrophe models to aid risk management policy processes via a number of wide ranging applications. These are grouped into three parts, according to whether they inform local or regional risk management policy (Part I); the management of country-wide catastrophe risk and its implication on development (Part II); and the participatory design of a national insurance program (Part III). After discussion of the rational for the proposed approaches, which integrate across multiple disciplines and take into account the diverse values and preferences of stakeholders, this chapter introduces Part I of the volume, including cases on the management of flash flood risk in Vienna, Austria, an earthquake insurance program for the Tuscany region in Italy, balancing stakeholder concerns in establishing flood risk management strategies in northern Vietnam, and the choice of appropriate discounting factors in the design of infrastructures under consideration of catastrophe risk
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