20253 research outputs found
Sort by
Assessing sustainable wellbeing in Africa through “Years of Good Life”
No full textThe ultimate end of sustainable development can be defined as achieving sustainable human wellbeing. With the intention of measuring this, an indicator that aims to capture the universal constituents of sustainable human wellbeing titled “Years of Good Life” (YoGL) was designed (Lutz et al., 2021). Based on the demographic life table approach, YoGL assumes that being alive is the fundamental prerequisite for enjoying any quality of life. However, as mere survival is not seen as sufficient, being above minimum thresholds in the dimensions of material, physical and cognitive wellbeing, as well as the subjective dimension of life satisfaction, is required. This paper aims to explore the concept of sustainable wellbeing and assess it in Africa through YoGL, using a mixed methods approach.
Firstly, the paper presents results from focus group discussions in South Africa aimed at understanding cultural differences in the perception of human well-being. Secondly, a comparative analysis of YoGL across 46 African countries over the period of 1950–2015 is carried out, giving special emphasis to the differentiation by gender. Again, taking South Africa as a case study, trends in the different constituents of gender-specific wellbeing are examined. Turning to the future, the paper looks at YoGL as the output variable in a multi-sector global systems model which also incorporates feedbacks from social, economic and environmental change on human wellbeing over the rest of this century
Smart IoT Water Curtain System for Protecting Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) Village from Forest Fires
No full textThis study introduces the Crown Water Spray Equipment for Forest Fires Protection (CWSEFFP), a novel system designed to prevent the spread of large-scale forest fires and protect village communities, cultural heritage sites, and forest recreational facilities. The devastating 2005 Yangyang forest fire in South Korea, which destroyed Naksan Temple and 22 state-designated cultural properties, highlighted the urgent need for enhanced fire prevention systems. CWSEFFP I and II are designed to spray water over areas of 200 m × 80 m and 2000 m × 80 m, respectively, using strategically installed large nozzles. Since 2012, CWSEFFP I has been implemented in 240 locations across South Korea, with plans to deploy CWSEFFP II in 2024. This study details the design, functionality, and technical specifications of CWSEFFP, emphasizing its role in mitigating damage in the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) areas. The system exemplifies an aggressive approach to forest fire prevention, addressing the increasing frequency and intensity of fires globally. It not only suppresses active fires but also prevents their spread, thereby offering a robust solution for safeguarding vulnerable communities
Global Licensing and Regulation Framework to accelerate the development and deployment of fusion energy
No full textFusion energy, the energy that powers the stars, is now almost within our grasp. Most recent timelines agree on the second half of the 2030s for the realisation of a Fusion Energy pilot plant. For this clean, virtually carbon-neutral energy source to contribute to the mitigation of the climate crisis and contribute to meeting the growing energy demand, fusion energy will have to be deployed quickly – more quickly than was the case for solar and wind power. There are numerous factors that have to be considered, but licensing and regulation is a key factor. This paper introduces the basic facts on fusion energy, makes the case for an International Licensing and Regulation Framework for Fusion Energy, shows examples from other fields that demonstrate that this is feasible and develops a 7-point plan for such a framework. In technical aspects the paper focuses on magnetic confinement fusion, but the general aspects and the 7-point plan apply to fusion energy in general
A Multidimensional Projection of Future Regional Inequalities: Migration and Educational Attainment in Spain 2021–2071
No full textPopulation projections can be substantially enhanced by incorporating dimensions beyond age and sex. This study presents a multidimensional population projection for Spain by educational attainment, origin, and sub-national region, explicitly accounting for future social heterogeneity. Using data from the Spanish National Statistics Institute (INE) for the period 2017–2023, the baseline population is set in 2021 and projected in five-year intervals through 2071. The projections are disaggregated by three educational levels, five origin groups, and 17 NUTS-2 regions, and implemented within a multistate framework in which education is modelled as a transitioning state. Five projection scenarios are defined, including one that assumes an improvement in the educational composition of migrants. The analysis examines (1) whether the educational profiles of migrants are likely to reinforce ethnostratification; and (2) whether Spanish regions are expected to converge or diverge in terms of educational attainment and origin composition. Results indicate that Spain’s total population is projected to peak around mid-century and subsequently decline, with only seven regions experiencing population growth by 2071 under the medium scenario. Educational progress among migrants largely stagnates across regions and origin groups, except in the educational improvement scenario, where educational attainment increases and convergence is observed. Overall, population growth remains uneven and ethnostratification persists, with meaningful reductions in inequality occurring only under assumptions of improved migrant education. These outcomes, however, remain highly contingent on policy choices and sectoral employment structures. This study provides the first regional-level population projection for Spain that jointly incorporates education and origin, highlighting substantial heterogeneity across regions and offering an innovative framework for modelling social stratification in population projections
For reducing premature adult mortality in India, education matters more than income
No full textPreventing premature death is a global policy objective reflected in the SDGs. While numerous studies have found socioeconomic factors to be significantly associated with premature death everywhere in the world, the debate on the relative effect of such factors on mid-age (15 to 59 ages) has not received enough attention, particularly in low-income countries, where this question is pertinent due to scant resources in the healthcare sector. Using nationally representative, longitudinal data from the India Human Development Survey, we assess the relative importance of individual- and community-level education vs. income and wealth in India, where approximately 3 million premature deaths occur annually in mid-ages. We find a clear downward gradient in mid-age mortality with increasing education within each wealth category, whereas no consistent mortality advantage with increasing wealth status is visible within education subgroups. Multilevel logistic regression models show that the decline in the risk of death across the education spectrum by far exceeds (14% for male and 13% for female) the decline moving along the wealth distribution, even after controlling for other relevant demographic, socioeconomic, regional variables. Along with the direct effect of individual-level educational attainment, we also find a protective effect of education at the community level, particularly for women. Based on these findings, we infer that educational attainment is essential for reducing mid-age mortality in India. Population and health policies in developing countries, therefore, should focus on education to prevent adult mortality
Skill gaps between natives and immigrants in Europe: evidence from two cycles of PIAAC survey
No full textThe integration of immigrants into host societies is a widely debated issue with significant implications for host societies and economies. Unlocking immigrant human capital potential depends on the successful integration of immigrants and their children into the labor market and the society. The skills gap between immigrants and natives, including differences in qualifications and foundational skills, often hinders integration, limiting immigrants’ opportunities. Using data from the first and second PIAAC cycles, this work examines the skills gap in European countries, focusing on its persistence, reduction or expansion over time and between first- and second-generation immigrants. More specifically, it addresses literacy and numeracy skills as a measure of immigrants’ participation in the host social and economic context. This work explores the impact of factors such as one’s own or parents’ education and language barrier on literacy and numeracy performance, along with their impact on the migrant-native gap itself. It reveals the existence of a gap between immigrants’ and natives’ skills, with an immigrant disadvantage, more pronounced for the first generation and converging towards natives for the second generation. However, these trends vary over time, depending on the domain and country. This work provides useful insights to inform policies aimed at reducing disparities and promoting development in destination and origin countries
On the value of indicators for large-scale water quality assessments
No full textGlobal efforts to improve water quality under UN SDG 6.3.2 are undermined by disparate national monitoring standards that prevent coherent assessment. Additionally, water quality modeling can help to provide spatially continuous monitoring data for a set of water quality constituents, but not for all relevant indicators. This inconsistency hinders accountability in supply chains, management of biogeochemical cycles, and mitigation of transboundary pollution. To address this inconsistency, we evaluate and propose a core set of water quality indicators. We compare this proposed set against the against water quality constituents currently included in major international monitoring frameworks (e.g. nutrients, heavy metals, and microbial contaminants) and modeling projects, which simulate outputs like nutrient concentrations and pollutant loads, to identify key areas where modeling efforts could focus. Finally, we propose a tiered roadmap designed to achieve implementation of these core metrics, focusing on harmonizing existing outputs, filling model gaps, and incorporating emerging indicators
A global asymmetric duopoly game of relatively scarce resources
No full textThis study analyses the dynamics of the global rare earth element market, with a focus on China’s dominant role as the primary supplier, which is crucial for the energy transition and digitalization. Using a game-theoretic approach, the research examines a potential duopoly market structure that may emerge over time, as well as potential shifts in supply from China to other countries in this scenario. It considers China’s low marginal costs and factors such as resource extraction and discoveries. Additionally, the study examines the strategic market interactions, the role of technological advancements, and policy support in shaping market outcomes. The methodology assumes that agents have limited foresight and use a learned value function to strategically assess outcomes based on their own and others’ actions, while accounting for environmental constraints
Halving global ammonia emissions with cost-effective measures
No full textExcess ammonia (NH3) emissions from human activities pose severe threats to global ecosystems and human health. Although urgent control of NH3 emissions is needed, a comprehensive quantification of mitigation strategies and their cost-effectiveness is lacking on a global scale. Here we employ a multi-model framework to evaluate 32 mitigation measures across 7 sectors in 185 countries. Our analysis reveals that strategic implementation of technological and non-technological (policy and behavioural) measures could reduce global NH3 emissions by up to 60% at an average cost of US274 ± 116 billion is far outweighed by the resulting environmental, health and resource benefits, which we indicatively estimate at US$722 ± 302 billion. Priority action in China and India could yield the largest net gains, whereas Sub-Saharan Africa faces limited cost-effectiveness owing to structural and economic barriers. Future scenarios indicate that ambitious implementation pathways could halve NH3 emissions by 2050, whereas weak climate action and inadequate nitrogen regulations would drive continued emission growth, leading to substantial environmental deterioration. These findings highlight both the feasibility and urgency of integrating NH3 control into multi-objective policies for food security, air quality and sustainable development
Integrated Modelling for Catastrophic and Systemic Risks Management: Robust Coherent Balance Between Ex-Ante and Ex-Post Measures
No full textThe impacts of climate changes are expected to increase catalyzed by the growing complexity of systemic interdependencies, introduction of new policies and technologies in risk prone areas, growing population and demands, increasing frequency and severity of floods, hurricanes, windstorms, droughts, landslides, prolonged heatwaves. Catastrophic dependent systemic losses have analytically intractable multidimensional probability distributions dependent on the exogenous shocks, activities of economic sectors, interactions among goals and constraints of the involved actors and systems, environmental standards, critical infrastructure in place, feasible structural and financial measures, investment potentials, etc. We argue for the design of proper integrated Decision Support Systems (DSSs) and integrated catastrophe analysis and management modeling approaches, the development of which is being supported in frames of the EU funded PARATUS project and the IIASA and NASU joint projects. We discuss several important aspects and components of the DSSs. These include introduction of safety and security constraints of the involved agents, the necessity for robust interdependent ex-ante and ex-post strategic and operational structural and financial measures, the need for stochastic catastrophe models (scenario generators), and proper stochastic optimization solution procedures to provide the decision-support regarding proper systemic ex-ante and ex-post risk management options. We argue that in risk-prone areas, because of significant interdependencies among catastrophe losses across different locations, the demand for a particular measure (structural or financial) cannot be separated from the demand for other risk reduction and risk transfer measures. The diversion of capital from ex-post compensations to ex-ante investments into structural loss reduction measures may essentially reduce dependencies among losses and, hence, improve the resilience, stabilize loss compensation programs, and reduce the demand for risk sharing on national and international levels