1,721,059 research outputs found
Epidemic policy under uncertainty and information
No full textWe present a model of infectious disease control which incorporates uncertainty and
information. A policy-maker possesses beliefs about the value of a key parameter – we
choose the level of herd immunity in the population – and seeks the welfare-maximising
level of intervention, accounting for both the public health benefit and economic cost. An
approximation to the optimal rule shows that it accounts for interactions between beliefs,
the policy-maker’s attitude to risk, the production technology and costs, and the weights in
the welfare function. We consider the role of information, in the form of expert opinion and
scientific advice, in influencing the policy-maker’s beliefs and the optimal policy. We assess
the framework’s potential for advancing the economic modelling of epidemic control
Public Health Considerations on the Optimal Sin Tax Under Consumer Heterogeneity, with Implications for Inequality in Health
No full textWe study the optimal choice of sin tax by a public health authority, when the consumption of a harmful good is unevenly distributed across the income distribution. The optimal tax level adjusts away from the level applied when heterogeneity is ignored, according to the degree of relative inequality in the income distribution, as well as non-linearities in the population health and
deadweight loss functions. Drawing on findings from the literature on income
distribution and redistribution, we compare the impact of the two tax levels on relative inequality in health and participation in unhealthy consumption.
Under reasonable assumptions about functional forms, and independently of
the distribution of income, we show that the heterogeneity-adjusted sin tax can increase both efficiency and health inequality
Do lottery operators exploit their lottery power? Efficiency and equality considerations in optimal lottery design
Full text linkWe study the problem facing the operator of a lottery who is charged with raising revenue for the public finances. Demand for the lottery is a function of both disposable income and the pricing of the game. Departing from the current literature, we show that optimal lottery pricing includes corrections for the degree of inequality and skewness in the income distribution and features of the function relating lottery spend to disposable income. When gross lottery expenditure is regressive, it is optimal for the operator to improve the terms of the game by being more generous with the proportion of spend that is returned to players. The opposite result holds when gross lottery expenditure is progressive. Using results from analysis of the U.K. National Lottery’s Saturday game between 1997 and 2013, we show that the effective price was about ten percentage points too low to be efficient, so that the operator was not fully exploiting its lottery power. However, we also show that, were it to have raised its price to improve efficiency, it would have increased inequality
Value-based clinical trials: selecting trial lengths and recruitment rates in different regulatory contexts
No full textHealth systems are placing increasing emphasis on improving the design and operation of clinical trials, with a view to increasing the rate of innovation and adoption of health technologies in a ‘value-based’ world. We present a value-based, Bayesian decision-theoretic model of a two-armed clinical trial and health technology adoption decision in which the recruitment rate and duration of the recruitment period are optimised. We account for a wide range of regulatory and practical contexts, addressing questions of how health is valued (considering discounting, the horizon of an adoption decision, and the endogenisation of outcomes for patients in the trial), and the state of clinical practice prior to commencement of the trial (we consider both exploratory trials for pharmaceutical research and pragmatic trials which compare technologies currently in use). We apply the model using research and treatment cost data from an existing trial and health technology assessment and challenge traditional perceptions concerning the efficiency, length and knowledge that may be gained from clinical research when trial teams are charged with delivering ‘value’ efficiently
The Hazards of Slavery
No full textAbstract
Abolition of the transatlantic slave trade was a landmark in British imperial history. But did it have unintended consequences for slaves in the Caribbean? Using a unique data set from a Jamaican plantation, Simon Smith and Martin Forster investigate.</jats:p
Adaptive clinical trials: Bayesian decision-theoretic and frequentist approaches for cost-effectiveness analysis
No full textsj-pdf-1-jad-10.1177_10870547221092120 – Supplemental material for Is Parents’ ADHD Symptomatology Associated With the Clinical Feasibility or Effectiveness of a Psychoeducational Program Targeting Their Children’s ADHD?
No full textSupplemental material, sj-pdf-1-jad-10.1177_10870547221092120 for Is Parents’ ADHD Symptomatology Associated With the Clinical Feasibility or Effectiveness of a Psychoeducational Program Targeting Their Children’s ADHD? by Therese Lindström, Axel Kierkegaard Suttner, Martin Forster, Sven Bölte and Tatja Hirvikoski in Journal of Attention Disorders</p
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Full text linkThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
Full text link“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
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