1,720,966 research outputs found
The long-term economic effects of aridification
Full text linkWe conduct a disaggregated empirical analysis of the economic effects of desertification, exploiting a novel grid-cell global dataset from 1990 to 2015. Our measure of desertification combines annual variation in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration of the soil. To ensure accuracy, we employed advanced spatial econometric techniques to account for the interdependence between economic development and both time and location. Our results indicate that a one standard deviation increase in desertification is associated with a 0.6% to 0.9% decrease in GDP per capita. Based on these estimates, we have predicted the potential impact of future desertification on economic development, with a particular focus on Africa and Southeast Asia
Lockdown measures and air quality: evidence from Italian provinces
No full textThe aim of this short communication is to estimate the effects of the implementation of more restrictive lockdown measures on pollution levels in Italy. Using a time series of weekly concentrations of PM10, PM2.5 and NO2 for the period 2016–2020 across 71 provinces, we find that the introduction of lockdown measures reduced the air concentration levels of PM10 and NO2 by 17–18%, while their effect on PM2.5 remains unclear. These results indicate that the lockdown had a significant positive impact in terms of lives saved and improved air quality
Aridification, precipitations and crop productivity: evidence from the aridity index
No full textThe economic effects of global warming have gained considerable attention in the recent economic literature. While the relationship between rainfall and agriculture is well known, precipitations alone do not capture the soil water availability, which depends on the evaporation of the water (potential evapotranspiration [PET]). This paper presents evidence of the relationship between aridification and agricultural productivity. We show that areas that have experienced increased precipitations have become arider due to increased PET. We then project future aridification patterns. We find that the global arid area will increase by 3.9 per cent by 2040. This implies a global loss of about 20 million tons of maize, 19 million tons of rice, 8 million tons of soybeans and 21 million tons of wheat until 2040 if no action to combat desertification is taken
Climate, desertification, and local human development: evidence from 1564 regions around the world
No full textHow global warming affects human development is a central question for economists as well as social scientists. While most of the literature has focused on the impact of weather on income, less is known on the relationship between climate and local human development. This paper considers shocks in precipitation, temperature, and an original measure of soil aridity to first exploit the association between climate warming and human development, and second, on its dimensions. We show that while precipitations do not have a significant long-term impact on human development growth, variations in temperature and potential evapotranspiration negatively affect two of the three determinants of the Human Development Index, namely life expectancy at birth and education. These results suggest that other climate indicators, such as the potential evapo-transpiration of the soil, should be considered in addition to the standard indicators, when evaluating the localized economic effects of climate change
Malaria and economic activity: Evidence from US agriculture
Full text linkI conduct a disaggregated empirical analysis of the relationship between the reduction in malaria transmission and agricultural development in the United States. Exploiting exogenous geographic variations in malaria-suitable weather conditions and using historical county data together with a robust quasi-experimental approach, I show that the farm value per acre of arable land of more endemic counties increased by around eight percentage points after the eradication of the disease relative to less endemic counties. Using historical data on cropland distribution within the United States, I also find that arable land increased in high malaria-risk areas. Finally, I shed light on the increased productivity of farmers as a potential channel. Robustness checks from geographic variations in malaria prevalence within neighboring counties and placebo treatments reinforce the positive effect of eradicating malaria on agricultural development in the United States
Drought and aridity influence internal migration worldwide
No full textWhile the effects of climatic changes on migration have received widespread public and scientific attention, comparative evidence for their influence on internal migration worldwide remains scarce. Here we use census-based data from 72 countries (1960–2016) to analyse 107,840 migration flows between subnational regions. We find that increased drought and aridity have a significant impact on internal migration, particularly in the hyper-arid and arid areas of Southern Europe, South Asia, Africa and the Middle East and South America. Migration patterns are shaped by the wealth, agricultural dependency and urbanization of both origin and destination areas with migration responses being stronger in rural and predominantly agricultural areas. While overall climatic effects on migration are stronger in richer countries, we observe higher out-migration from poorer towards wealthier regions within countries. Furthermore, age and education groups respond differently to climatic stress, highlighting distinct mobility patterns of population subgroups across different geographic contexts
Mosquitoes and Potatoes: How Local Climatic Conditions Impede Development
Full text linkThe historical diffusion of the potato in the Old World serves as an example of the contribution of technological innovations to socio-economic growth and development (Nunn and Qian in Q J Econ 126(2):593–650, 2011). Climate-related diseases, on the other hand, might offset some of these benefits. Here we examine the long-term impact of malaria on the potato-driven growth of the population and urbanization in the Old World during the 18th and 19th centuries. We exploit local variations in environmental suitability both for potato and for malaria transmission to estimate and compare the impact of potato cultivation on population and urbanization in highly endemic to non-endemic areas at a high level of spatial disaggregation. We show that local climate conditions ideal for malaria transmission counteracted the potential benefits of introducing the potato to the Old World, which are conversely found to be strong and positive in non-endemic regions. These results highlight the interplay between technological change, public health, and development outcomes
Staying home saves lives, really!
No full textWhen coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was spreading worldwide, many national and local governments started to impose socially restrictive measures to limit the spread of the virus. Such quarantine measures in different cities worldwide have brought a new trend in public safety improvement and crime reduction. Using daily crime reports in the U.S., this paper evaluates the immediate unintended effects of shelter-in-place orders on different crime categories using fine-grained spatial units (i.e., neighborhoods) rather than entire cities, states, or countries. Results for San Francisco suggest an immediate drop of between 10 and 20% points in the total number of crimes after one month from the introduction of the restrictions. In particular, we show that while theft, homicide, and traffic accidents have fallen sharply, domestic violence incidents and weapon possession offences were not affected by the lockdown. The results are robust to the inclusion of spatial and temporal dependence
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Full text linkThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
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