19 research outputs found
Taryfy importowe partnerów handlowych: doświadczenia trzech krajów Bałkanów Zachodnich
Get PDFNiniejszy artykuł ma na celu zbadanie wpływu obniżenia taryf importowych partnerów handlowych na eksport całkowity i eksport poszczególnych produktów z trzech państw Bałkanów Zachodnich łącznie oraz obserwowany indywidualnie dla każdego państwa. W celu zbadania potencjalnego efektu, w artykule wykorzystano równanie grawitacyjne i dokonano szacowania danych dynamicznych z użyciem systemu GMM. Badania dokonano w oparciu o podejście łączne i indywidualne. Podejście łączne do trzech krajów Bałkanów Zachodnich wskazało iż obniżenie średniej stawki celnej w imporcie (simple average tariff rate – SAT) i średniej ważonej stawki celnej (weighted average tariff – WAT) pozytywnie wpływa na wzrost eksportu całkowitego i eksportu poszczególnych produktów. Zastosowanie podejścia indywidualnego dla każdego kraju wykazało, że spadek stawek SAT i WAT w imporcie ma również pozytywny wpływ na wzrost eksportu całkowitego i eksportu poszczególnych produktów z Albanii i Serbii, podczas gdy efekt ten jest słaby dla Byłej Jugosłowiańskiej Republiki Macedonii
The Effect of Trade Liberalization of Bosnia and Herzegovina with the Leading Trade Partners
No full textThis paper presents our research on the effect of trade liberalization with leading trade partners on Bosnia and Herzegovina’s (B&H) trade balance. The theoretical framework includes a gravity model and GMM dynamic panel analysis as the econometric technique. The research results show that the export of products from B&H increased thanks to the growth of macroeconomic indicators of trading partners, dummy variables and the export of certain products according to the sector structure. On the other hand, imports of products to B&H decreased due to the decline of B&H’s macroeconomic indicators, dummy variables and reduced imports of certain products according to the sector structure. From these findings, we can conclude that through the process of trade liberalization with developed countries, B&H recorded an increase in exports and reduction of the leading imports sector, which led to a reduction in the trade deficit.
JEL Classification: F14, F31, F3
Liberalization of Trade with Leading Trade Partners: Some Evidence from Bosnia and Herzegovina
Get PDFIn this study, the effect of trade liberalization with the leading trade partners on the B&H trade balance was researched. The theoretical framework includes a gravity model and econometric technique GMM dynamic panel. The research results have shown that export of products from B&H increased thanks to the growth of macroeconomic indicators of trading partners, dummy variables and the export of certain products according to the sector structure. On the other hand, imports of products in B&H decreased due to the decline of macroeconomic indicators of B&H, dummy variables and reduced imports of certain products according to the sector structure
IMPLICATION OF THE EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON THE TRADE BALANCE OF ALBANIA
No full textThe paper intends to investigate the effect of the real effective exchange rate depreciation of the lek on the trade balance of Albania using quarterly data from 1994 to 2015. Bounds testing co-integration approach, vector error correction model (VECM) and impulse response were used for empirical analysis. The results of the study show that there exists a long-term cointegration between REER and TB. Specifically, REER depreciation positively affects the trade balance of Albania in both the long-term and short-run indicating the weak presence of the J-curve effect. Important recommendations were derived from the results
Učinek depreciacije deviznega tečaja na trgovinsko bilanco Albanije
Get PDFThe paper investigates the effect of the real effective exchange rate depreciation of the lek on the trade balance of Albania using quarterly data from 1994 to 2015. Bounds testing cointegration approach, vector error correction model (VECM), and impulse response were used for the empirical analysis. The results of the study show a long-term cointegration between the real effective exchange rate (REER) and the trade balance (TB). Specifically, the REER depreciation positively affects the trade balance of Albania in both the long and short run, indicating the weak presence of the J-curve effect. Important recommendations were derived from the results.Namen članka je raziskati učinek depreciacije realnega efektivnega deviznega tečaja leka na trgovinsko bilanco Albanije z uporabo četrtletnih podatkov med letoma 1994 in 2015. V empirični analizi so bili uporabljeni test meje kointegracije, model vektorske korekcije napak (VECM) in impulzni odziv. Izsledki raziskave kažejo, da obstaja dolgoročna kointegracija med realnim efektivnim deviznim tečajem (REER) in trgovinsko bilanco (TB). Specifično, depreciacija REER ima pozitiven učinek na trgovinsko bilanco Albanije tako dolgoročno kot tudi kratkoročno, kar nakazuje šibek učinek J-krivulje. Iz rezultatov smo izpeljali pomembne zaključke
Effect of Depreciation of the Exchange Rate on the Trade Balance of Albania
No full textThe paper investigates the effect of the real effective exchange rate depreciation of the lek on the trade balance of Albania using quarterly data from 1994 to 2015. Bounds testing cointegration approach, vector error correction model (VECM), and impulse response were used for the empirical analysis. The results of the study show a long-term cointegration between the real effective exchange rate (REER) and the trade balance (TB). Specifically, the REER depreciation positively affects the trade balance of Albania in both the long and short run, indicating the weak presence of the J-curve effect. Important recommendations were derived from the results
Effect of Depreciation of the Exchange Rate on the Trade Balance of Albania
No full textAbstract
The paper investigates the effect of the real effective exchange rate depreciation of the lek on the trade balance of Albania using quarterly data from 1994 to 2015. Bounds testing cointegration approach, vector error correction model (VECM), and impulse response were used for the empirical analysis. The results of the study show a long-term cointegration between the real effective exchange rate (REER) and the trade balance (TB). Specifically, the REER depreciation positively affects the trade balance of Albania in both the long and short run, indicating the weak presence of the J-curve effect. Important recommendations were derived from the results.</jats:p
Bilateral Trade Elasticity of Serbia and Her Trading Partners
No full textAbstract
Almost all countries face the problems of trade balance, although they are more inherent in developing countries and economies in transition. A majority of economists adhere to a common opinion that real depreciation may lead to an improvement of trade balance. That said, countries encountering trade balance issues use real exchange rate depreciation in order to improve trade balance. In fact, this research refers to the assessment of bilateral elasticity effect of real exchange rate depreciation and the income on export and import demand function of Serbia and its nine leading partners. 2004Q1-2015Q4 data and ARDL approach have been used in this research. The results obtained show the presence of the J-curve in cases of Germany, Austria and Croatia. On the other hand, we examined if the Marshall-Lerner condition was fulfilled in the case of bilateral trade with Austria. Finally, we found that the elasticity of income has a greater effect on the export and import demand function, in relation to the elasticity of the exchange rate.</jats:p
Bilateral Trade Elasticity: B&H versus its seven trade partners
Get PDFBilateral trade elasticity is important in the analysis of the international trade flows and their anticipation in the process of establishing macroeconomic policy. Our research is based on bilateral data and the assessment of the influence of currency depreciation on the bilateral trade elasticity of B&H and its seven leading trade partners from Central and Southeast Europe. We applied the ARDL econometric technique in the research. In the short term we investigated the presence of the Marshall-Lerner condition (M-L condition) for Croatia and FYR Macedonia, while in the long term we investigated the presence of the M-L condition for Slovenia. In addition, we investigated, in certain cases, the presence of the J-curve, i.e. long-term impact of currency depreciation on the elasticity of export and import demand function. Finally, based on the application of diagnostic statistics and stability tests, the stability of the coefficient was confirmed in the majority of cases
Bilateral Trade Elasticity of Serbia: Is There a J-Curve Effect?
No full textWe assess the bilateral elasticity effect of real exchange rate depreciation on the export and import demand functions of Serbia and its nine leading trade partners. Analysing quarterly data for the 2004-2015 period, we find the presence of a J-curve effect in the cases of Germany, Austria and Croatia. In contrast, we find that the Marshall-Lerner conditions are fulfilled in the case of bilateral trade with Austria. Finally, in our estimates the elasticity to income has a greater impact on the export and import demand functions than the elasticity to the exchange rate.
JEL Classification: F14, F31, F3
