1,720,994 research outputs found
Maximum entropy approach to multivariate time series randomization
Full text linkNatural and social multivariate systems are commonly studied through sets of simultaneous and time-spaced measurements of the observables that drive their dynamics, i.e., through sets of time series. Typically, this is done via hypothesis testing: the statistical properties of the empirical time series are tested against those expected under a suitable null hypothesis. This is a very challenging task in complex interacting systems, where statistical stability is often poor due to lack of stationarity and ergodicity. Here, we describe an unsupervised, data-driven framework to perform hypothesis testing in such situations. This consists of a statistical mechanical approach — analogous to the configuration model for networked systems — for ensembles of time series designed to preserve, on average, some of the statistical properties observed on an empirical set of time series. We showcase its possible applications with a case study on financial portfolio selection
A Pólya urn approach to information filtering in complex networks
Full text linkThe increasing availability of data demands for techniques to filter information in large complex networks of interactions. A number of approaches have been proposed to extract network backbones by assessing the statistical significance of links against null hypotheses of random interaction. Yet, it is well known that the growth of most real-world networks is non-random, as past interactions between nodes typically increase the likelihood of further interaction. Here, we propose a filtering methodology inspired by the Pólya urn, a combinatorial model driven by a self-reinforcement mechanism, which relies on a family of null hypotheses that can be calibrated to assess which links are statistically significant with respect to a given network's own heterogeneity. We provide a full characterization of the filter, and show that it selects links based on a non-trivial interplay between their local importance and the importance of the nodes they belong to
Reciprocity and impact in academic careers
No full textThe growing importance of citation-based bibliometric indicators in shaping the prospects of academic careers incentivizes scientists to boost the numbers of citations they receive. Whereas the exploitation of self-citations has been extensively documented, the impact of reciprocated citations has not yet been studied. We study reciprocity in a citation network of authors, and compare it with the average reciprocity computed in an ensemble of null network models. We show that obtaining citations through reciprocity correlates negatively with an impactful career in the long term. Nevertheless, at the aggregate level we show evidence of a steady increase in reciprocity over the years, largely fuelled by the citations reciprocated between coauthors. Our results characterize the structure of author networks in a time of increasing emphasis on citation-based indicators, and we discuss their implications towards a fairer assessment of academic impact
Asymmetric correlation matrices: an analysis of financial data
No full textWe analyse the spectral properties of correlation matrices between distinct statistical systems. Such matrices are intrinsically non-symmetric, and lend themselves to extend the spectral analyses usually performed on standard Pearson correlation matrices to the realm of complex eigenvalues. We employ some recent random matrix theory results on the average eigenvalue density of this type of matrix to distinguish between noise and non-trivial correlation structures, and we focus on financial data as a case study. Namely, we employ daily prices of stocks belonging to the American and British stock exchanges, and look for the emergence of correlations between two such markets in the eigenvalue spectrum of their non-symmetric correlation matrix. We find several non trivial results when considering time-lagged correlations over short lags, and we corroborate our findings by additionally studying the asymmetric correlation matrix of the principal components of our datasets
On the non-stationarity of financial time series: impact on optimal portfolio selection
No full textWe investigate the possible drawbacks of employing the standard
Pearson estimator to measure correlation coefficients between financial stocks
in the presence of non-stationary behavior, and we provide empirical evidence
against the well-established common knowledge that using longer price time
series provides better, more accurate, correlation estimates. Then, we investigate
the possible consequences of instabilities in empirical correlation coefficient
measurements on optimal portfolio selection. We rely on previously published
works which provide a framework allowing us to take into account possible risk
underestimations due to the non-optimality of the portfolio weights being used
in order to distinguish such non-optimality effects from risk underestimations
genuinely due to non-stationarities. We interpret such results in terms of
instabilities in some spectral properties of portfolio correlation matrices
What Do Leaders Know?
No full textThe ability of a society to make the right decisions on relevant matters relies on its capability to properly aggregate the noisy information spread across the individuals of which it is made. In this paper, we study the information aggregation performance of a stylized model of a society, whose most influential individuals—the leaders—are highly connected among themselves and uninformed. Agents update their state of knowledge in a Bayesian manner by listening to their neighbors. We find analytical and numerical evidence of a transition, as a function of the noise level in the information initially available to agents, from a regime where information is correctly aggregated, to one where the population reaches consensus on the wrong outcome with finite probability. Furthermore, information aggregation depends in a non-trivial manner on the relative size of the clique of leaders, with the limit of a vanishingly small clique being singular
Moments of Wishart-Laguerre and Jacobi ensembles of random matrices: application to the quantum transport problem in chaotic cavities
No full textScalability and egalitarianism in peer-to-peer networks
No full textMany information-technology innovations are driven, in their early stages, by an egalitarian ethos that empowers individuals through dis-intermediation. Bitcoin and peer to peer financial systems were inspired by these egalitarian ambitions. However, in bitcoin we have recently witnessed a strong centralization around a few large mining pools, which puts control of most of the system in the hands of a few. In this chapter we investigate the physical limits of distributed consensus mechanisms over networks, and discuss whether there are scalability and efficiency reasons that incentivize centralization. We compute the time to reach majority consensus in a variety of settings, comparing egalitarian networks with centralized networks, and quantifying the effect of network topology on the propagation of information
A network perspective on intermedia agenda-setting
Full text linkIn Communication Theory, intermedia agenda-setting refers to the influence that different news sources may have on each other, and how this subsequently affects the breadth of information that is presented to the public. Several studies have attempted to quantify the impact of intermedia agenda-setting in specific countries or contexts, but a large-scale, data-driven investigation is still lacking. Here, we operationalise intermedia agenda-setting by putting forward a methodology to infer networks of influence between different news sources on a given topic, and apply it on a large dataset of news articles published by globally and locally prominent news organisations in 2016. We find influence to be significantly topic-dependent, with the same news sources acting as agenda-setters (i.e., central nodes) with respect to certain topics and as followers (i.e., peripheral nodes) with respect to others. At the same time, we find that the influence networks associated to most topics exhibit small world properties, which we find to play a significant role towards the overall diversity of sentiment expressed about the topic by the news sources in the network. In particular, we find clustering and density of influence networks to act as competing forces in this respect, with the former increasing and the latter reducing diversit
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