15 research outputs found
Diversifying relationships: Russian policy toward GCC
No full textThe interaction between Russia and Gulf countries represents the story of ups and downs, severe conflicts and sharp warmings that can largely be explained by the permanently changing role and place of each of these players at the global and Middle Eastern political arenas. After Russia's “return” to the Middle East in 2012–2015, Moscow's foreign policy towards the Gulf can be explained in terms of a bargaining strategy. On the one hand, Russia is trying to underline its importance and relevance to the GCC by putting forward diplomatic and political initiatives. The Kremlin uses its direct or indirect presence in the key regional conflicts such as the Syrian, Libyan and Yemeni civil wars as well as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Iran’s nuclear issue. On the other hand, Russia is interested in building up stronger economic cooperation with the GCC, drawing bigger volumes of investments from the Gulf to Russia’s broken economy, as well as coordinating efforts with Saudi Arabia in the global oil market. While, in the near future, the qualitative evolution of Russia’s relations with the GCC is hardly possible, there are still options for their deepening within the current level of interaction between Moscow and the Gulf
Diversifying relationships: Russian policy toward GCC
No full textThe interaction between Russia and Gulf countries represents the story of ups and downs, severe conflicts and sharp warmings that can largely be explained by the permanently changing role and place of each of these players at the global and Middle Eastern political arenas. After Russia's “return” to the Middle East in 2012–2015, Moscow's foreign policy towards the Gulf can be explained in terms of a bargaining strategy. On the one hand, Russia is trying to underline its importance and relevance to the GCC by putting forward diplomatic and political initiatives. The Kremlin uses its direct or indirect presence in the key regional conflicts such as the Syrian, Libyan and Yemeni civil wars as well as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Iran’s nuclear issue. On the other hand, Russia is interested in building up stronger economic cooperation with the GCC, drawing bigger volumes of investments from the Gulf to Russia’s broken economy, as well as coordinating efforts with Saudi Arabia in the global oil market. While, in the near future, the qualitative evolution of Russia’s relations with the GCC is hardly possible, there are still options for their deepening within the current level of interaction between Moscow and the Gulf.Other Information Published in: International Politics License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0See article on publisher's website: http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/s41311-021-00286-4</p
Internet Censorship in Arab Countries: Religious and Moral Aspects
No full textInternet censorship remains one of the most common methods of state control over the media. Reasons for filtering cyberspace include ensuring the security of the current regime, attempts to limit all kinds of opposition movements, and the protection of the religious and moral norms of society. In Arab countries, where religion plays a major role in the sociopolitical sphere, the latter is particularly important. Since, in Islamic law, there is no direct reference to censorship in practice, governments cause many resources to be filtered under various pretexts. At the same time, as the example of Egypt during the Arab spring shows, moral and religious reasons for filtering the Internet have more grounds than, say, the persecution of opposition leaders
From Fitnah to Thaura: The Metamorphosis of the Arab-Muslim Protest Movements
No full textSince 2011, the Arab world has entered a period of political turbulence accompanied by widespread growth of protest activity. The events that were metaphorically called the “Arab Spring” referring to the “Spring of Nations” of 1848, affected virtually all countries of the Middle East and North Africa. In Libya, Syria, and Yemen, antigovernment demonstrations led to almost complete destruction of statehood raising the question of the existence of these political entities in their former borders. Egypt and Tunisia ended up with a change in the ruling regimes that repeated many times. The ruling elites of other Arab countries, having experienced the wrath of the Arab streets to varying degrees, managed to stay in power. The “Arab Spring” events should be more adequately viewed in the framework of “fitnah”, a form of protest traditional in the Arab-Muslim political culture. Indeed, since the emergence of Islam, fitnah was one of the most common forms of protest activity in the Middle East. However, in the last two centuries, it was replaced by “thaura” or the “revolution,” much more common in the European mentality. While the term "fitnah" has mainly negative connotations, “thaura” has been praised in every possible way and even became the basis for commemorative practices. This paper makes an attempt to compare these two forms of protest in the Muslim world
Never Ending Revolutions
No full textThis essay will review two books that describe and explain modern revolutions. First one is Handbook of Revolutions in the 21st Century. The New Waves of Revolutions, and the Causes and Effects of Disruptive Political Change edited by Jack A. Goldstone, Leonid Grinin and Andrey Korotayev. The book is a massive collection of 41 diverse chapters from numerous contributors. The book takes on almost every aspect of revolutionary theory and addresses quite a few of very recent revolutionary events, as well as many older ones. Second book is New Wave of Revolutions in the MENA Region. A Comparative Perspective edited by Leonid Issaev and Andrey Korotayev. The book contains 12 chapters from various contributors, each dedicated to a revolutionary episode in a country from the Middle East and Northern Africa region. The book provides an overview of the revolutionary processes in the region that shook the world several years ago with its rapid and unexpected domino-like revolutions. The book demonstrates that revolutions are ongoing in this part of the world
World order transformation and sociopolitical destabilization
No full textThe present working paper analyzes the world order in the past, present and future as well as the main factors, foundations and ideas underlying the maintaining and change of the international and global order. The first two sections investigate the evolution of the world order starting from the ancient times up to the late twentieth century. The third section analyzes the origin and decline of the world order based on the American hegemony. The authors reveal contradictions of the current unipolar world and explain in what way globalization has become more profitable for the developing countries but not for the developed ones. The paper also explains the strengthening belief that the US leading status will inevitably weaken. In this connection we discuss the alternatives of the American strategy and the possibility of the renaissance of the American leadership. The last section presents a factor analysis which allows stating that the world is shifting toward a new balance of power and is likely to become the world without a leader. The new world order will consist of a number of large blocks, coalitions and countries acting within a framework of rules and mutual responsibility. However, the transition to a new world order will take certain time (about two decades). This period, which we denote as the epoch of new coalitions, will involve a reconfiguration of the World-System and bring an increasing turbulence and conflict intensity.
There are grounds to conclude that in 2011–2012 the World-System experienced to some extent a phase transition to a qualitatively new state of global protest activity. This phase transition is shown to bear some resemblance to the one which the World-System experienced in the early 1960s. The first (after 1919) phase transition of this sort occurred in the early 1960s and was related to the growth of global informational connectivity after the World War II, as well as the improvement of the means of protest self-organization due to the spread of television, portable radio receivers, portable electric loud-speakers and other technologies of the Fourth
Kondratieff Cycle. The phase transition of the early 2010s was prepared by a new wave of growth of global informational connectivity, as well as the improvement of the means of protest self-organization due to the spread of various technologies of the Fifth Kondratieff cycle (the Internet, satellite television, Twitter and other social networks, mobile telephony etc.). Similarly to what was observed during the Fourth Kondratieff Wave, during the Fifth Cycle while the spread of these technologies was going on for many years before 2011, their internal colossal potential for generating and spreading protest activity was realized in one leap, as a phase transition
Глобальная террористическая угроза в Сахеле и истоки терроризма в Буркина-Фасо
No full textThe article examines the reasons for the increasing terrorist activity in Burkina Faso after the revolution in 2014. For decades, the Sahel has been one of the most unstable regions in Africa and the Afrasian zone of instability. However, in the 2010s the Sahel has experienced a dramatic increase in terrorist activity: by 2015, the number of terrorist attacks there increased more than seven times compared to 2010. At the same time, the dynamics of terrorist activity in Burkina Faso had its specific characteristics compared to the rest of the Sahel. The growth of terrorism in this country was largely a consequence of the overthrow of the B. Compaoré regime. The new authorities were unable to maintain security at the same level. This can be explained, on the one hand, by the stable agreements that had been settled between Compaoré and terrorist structures. His resignation destroyed all the informal ties and agreements that the regime had established with regional jihadist organizations, freeing their hands to infiltrate Burkina Faso quickly and easily. On the other hand, the dissolution of the Regiment of Presidential Security (precisely the structure largely responsible for the fight against terrorism) after the failed military coup attempt of September 2015 played an important role. The new leadership stripped the country of the protection they had against jihadist organizations poised to infiltrate across the border into Burkina Faso. As a result, after 2015, a very safe country in terms of terrorism faced an unprecedented increase in terrorist activity.В статье рассматриваются причины роста террористической активности в Буркина-Фасо после революции 2014 г. Регион Сахеля на протяжении десятилетий являлся одним из наиболее нестабильных в Африке и афразийской зоне нестабильности. Однако в 2010-е гг. Сахель испытал на себе сильнейший рост террористической активности: к 2015 г. количество терактов здесь выросло более чем в семь раз по сравнению с 2010 г. В то же время динамика террористической активности в Буркина-Фасо имела свои особенности по сравнению с остальными странами Сахеля. Рост терроризма в этой стране во многом стал следствием свержения режима Б. Компаоре. Новые власти оказались неспособны поддерживать безопасность на прежнем уровне. Объяснением этому могут служить, с одной стороны, устойчивые договоренности, которые сложились между Компаоре и террористическими структурами. Его отставка разрушила все неформальные связи и договоренности, которые режим налаживал с региональными джихадистскими организациями, развязав им руки для достаточно быстрого и легкого проникновения в Буркина-Фасо. С другой стороны, важную роль сыграл роспуск Президентской гвардии (именно эта структура в значительной степени отвечала за борьбу с терроризмом) после неудачной попытки военного переворота в сентябре 2015 г. Новое руководство лишило страну защиты, которую они имели против джихадистских организаций, готовых проникнуть через границу в Буркина-Фасо. В результате после 2015 г. весьма благополучная с точки зрения терроризма страна столкнулась с беспрецедентным ростом террористической активности
