5,918 research outputs found
Lena Retamoso folio
No full textA folio of poetry by Lena Retamoso, appearing in the Spanish original and in English translation by the author, James Joseph Shay III, and Bruno Soria
Short-Term Forecasting of Crop Production for Sustainable Agriculture in a Changing Climate
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Short-Term Forecasting of Crop Production for Sustainable Agriculture in a Changing Climate
by Vincenzo Guerriero
1,* [ORCID] , Anna Rita Scorzini
1 [ORCID] , Bruno Di Lena
2, Mario Di Bacco
3 [ORCID] and Marco Tallini
1 [ORCID]
1
Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of L’Aquila, 67100 L’Aquila, Italy
2
Abruzzo Region, Agriculture Department, 66054 Vasto, Italy
3
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Florence, 50139 Florence, Italy
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Sustainability 2025, 17(13), 6135; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17136135
Submission received: 14 May 2025 / Revised: 19 June 2025 / Accepted: 1 July 2025 / Published: 4 July 2025
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impact of Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events on Crop Growth, Pest Management and Crop Production)
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Abstract
Globally, crop productive systems exhibit climatic adaptation, resulting in increased overall yields over the past century. Nevertheless, inter-annual fluctuations in production can lead to food price volatility, raising concerns about food security. Within this framework, short-term crop yield predictions informed by climate observations may significantly contribute to sustainable agricultural development. In this study, we discuss the criteria for historical monitoring and forecasting of the productive system response to climatic fluctuations, both ordinary and extreme. Here, forecasting is intended as an assessment of the conditional probability distribution of crop yield, given the observed value of a key climatic index in an appropriately chosen month of the year. Wheat production in the Teramo province (central Italy) is adopted as a case study to illustrate the approach. To characterize climatic conditions, this study utilizes the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) as a key indicator impacting wheat yield. Validation has been carried out by means of Monte Carlo simulations, confirming the effectiveness of the method. The main findings of this study show that the model describing the yield–SPEI relationship has time-varying parameters and that the study of their variation trend allows for an estimate of their current values. These results are of interest from a methodological point of view, as these methods can be adapted to various crop products across different geographical regions, offering a tool to anticipate production figures. This offers effective tools for informed decision-making in support of both agricultural and economic sustainability, with the additional benefit of helping to mitigate price volatility
Cambiamenti climatici e fenologia della vite: indagini su Montepulciano e Sangiovese
No full textLa ricerca, condotta nel triennio 2008-2010, nell’ambito di una collaborazione tra l’Università Politecnica delle Marche e l’Agenzia Regionale per i Servizi di Sviluppo Agricolo della Regione Abruzzo (ARSSA) ha riguardato tematiche inerenti i cambiamenti climatici e l’applicazione di modelli fenologici in viticoltura. L’attenzione è stata rivolta alla valutazione della presenza di cambiamenti climatici nelle principali aree viticole della regione Abruzzo prendendo in esame serie storiche di dati climatici che partono dagli anni cinquanta. I cambiamenti climatici che hanno interessato il continente europeo a partire dagli anni ’80, si sono manifestati anche nella regione Abruzzo, ma con modalità differenti in località relativamente vicine e non sempre sono stati contraddistinti dallo stesso segno. In generale si è registrata una diminuzione delle precipitazioni nella fascia collinare litoranea e un aumento delle temperature nell’area interna di Sulmona. Nella fascia collinare litoranea l’incremento delle temperature si è manifestato solo nell’ultimo decennio. Sono state studiate anche le possibili ripercussioni dei cambiamenti climatici sulle date di vendemmia della cv. Montepulciano, la varietà a bacca nera che caratterizza l’Abruzzo.
Le ricerche hanno riguardato anche la creazione in laboratorio di un set di dati di germogliamento per le cv Montepulciano e Sangiovese da impiegare nella calibrazione di quattro modelli di stima di questa fase fenologica, tre dei quali (Riou-Pouget, Richardson e Ore normali di caldo) si basano sul solo soddisfacimento del fabbisogno in caldo nella fase di eco dormienza delle gemme (a partire dal 1° gennaio), mentre il restante modello BRIN analizza anche il fabbisogno in freddo ai fini dell’uscita dall’endodormienza. La validazione dei modelli è stata poi condotta ricorrendo a serie storiche di dati di campo. Sono stati ottenuti buoni risultati con i modelli di Richardson e Riou-Pouget, con i quali è stato valutato il fabbisogno in caldo nelle fasi di ecodormienza a partire dal 1° gennaio, e con il modello BRIN mediante il quale è stato determinato anche il fabbisogno in freddo ai fini dell’uscita dall’endodormienza delle gemme. Il modello BRIN, in particolare, è risultato più efficace rispetto al modello di Richardson negli ambienti caratterizzati da autunni non troppo rigidi, nei quali si registra un precoce accumulo di Growing Degree Hours nelle fasi successive all’uscita dall’endodormienza.
Alla luce dei cambiamenti climatici in atto nel continente europeo, la valutazione del soddisfacimento del fabbisogno in freddo delle gemme di vite ai fini dell’uscita dall’endodormienza potrebbe rivestire maggiore importanza nei prossimi anni
Trends in extreme daily rainfall in the Abruzzo region
No full textThe paper analyzes the trends in extreme daily rainfall at 28 meteorological stations of the Abruzzo region during the period 1951-2012. At this aim, the gamma distribution has been fitted to rainfall data and the time series of the number of events exceeding the 95th and 99th percentiles were analyzed to detect the presence of significant trends. The results show a prevailing decreasing tendency of extreme events, more evident in the central and northern areas of the regio
Introducing “La fabrique du droit”. A Conversation with Bruno Latour
No full textBruno Latour talks with Paolo Landri about his book on the Conseil d'Etat (La Fabrique du droit). The conversation was held in 2006 at the time of the Italian translation of the book and illustrates the research project and the difficulties the author had in the field. At the same time, it clarifies the trajectories of Bruno Latour's work and theoretical framework of his program of study with respect to sociology, anthropology, and philosophy of law. The conversation helps to understand the open-ended character of Bruno Latour's research and reflection including STS as well as sociological, anthropological and philosophical themes
Analysis of Rainfall Erosivity Trends 1980–2018 in a Complex Terrain Region (Abruzzo, Central Italy) from Rain Gauges and Gridded Datasets
No full textThe erosive capacity of precipitation depends on its intensity, volume, and duration. The rainfall erosivity factor (R) of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) requires high frequency (subhourly) data. When these are not available, R can be estimated from simplified indices such as the Modified Fournier Index (MFI), the Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI), and the Seasonality Index (SI), which are computed from monthly precipitation. We calculated these indices for 34 stations in the complex terrain Abruzzo region (central Italy) during 1980–2018, based on both gauge (point) and grid datasets. Using 30-min rainfall data of 14 stations, we verified that MFI and PCI are reliable predictors of R (R2 = 0.91, RMSE = 163.6 MJ mm ha−1 h−1 year−1). For MFI, grid data do not capture the peaks in high-altitude stations and the low values in some inland areas, detected by the point dataset. Grid data show significant MFI positive trends in 74% of the stations, while the point data display significant positive trends in only 26% of stations and significant negative trends in four stations in the inland areas. The grid data complex orography requires preliminary validation work
Statistical characterisation of winter precipitation in the Abruzzo region (Italy) in relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
No full textThis paper analyses the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and winter precipitation at 75 stations in the Abruzzo region (Central Italy) during the period 1951-2009. The analysis was carried out for individual months (December, January, February, March) as well as for 3-month accumulation periods, December to February (DJF) and January to March (JFM). A composite analysis, based on the positive and negative values of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) was used to compare the characteristics of precipitation associated with NAOI positive (NAO+) and negative (NAO-) conditions. Firstly, the NAO+ and NAO- precipitation subsets were compared by using the Brown-Forsythe and Mann-Whitney tests to assess the presence of significant differences in the variance and mean, respectively. Then the L-moment ratio diagrams were used to identify, for each period and NAO phase, the best-fitting two-parameter distribution. The NAO+ and NAO- conditions were also compared on the basis of the first (D1) and ninth (D9) precipitation deciles. The results show that the NAO mainly affects the mean precipitation amounts that are in most cases lower (higher) during the NAO+ (NAO-) phase, particularly for JFM. This influence is characterised by a relevant spatial variability that can be attributed to local factors (orography and distance from the sea). No significant differences were found in the precipitation variance, but this means that NAO+ precipitation, due to lower mean values, is relatively more variable than NAO- precipitation. The L-moment ratio diagrams reveal that the Weibull distribution always provides the best overall fitting for NAO- conditions (with the exception of DJF for which the log-normal is the best). For NAO+ conditions the best-fitting distributions become the generalized Pareto (January and February), the Weibull (DJF) and the Gamma (JFM), while no change in the distribution type is observed in December and March. In most cases, both D1 and D9 are lower during NAO+ phases. However, the differences related to D1 are more evident than those observed for D9, thus denoting a not-symmetrical influence of the NAO on the tails of the precipitation distributions. For D1, the differences are particularly relevant for January, February and DJF and for the inland areas, for which more frequent and severe drought events are expected during NAO+ phases
INDICE NAO E PRECIPITAZIONI INVERNALI NELLA REGIONE ABRUZZO
No full textL’analisi di serie storiche (1951-2009) relative alla rete di monitoraggio pluviometrica della Regione Abruzzo ha indagato le correlazioni con il NAO Index (NAOI); si inoltre sono confrontati gli andamenti pluviometrici nelle fasi più estreme di NAOI (>+1 e <-1) con i regimi medi di pioggia relativi all’intera serie
Author Correction: Collection of the digital data from the neurological examination.
No full textIn this article, the corresponding author was inadvertently designated only to “Bruno Kusznir Vitturi” but it should have been “Bruno Kusznir Vitturi” and “Walter Maetzler”. The original article has been corrected
On Bruno Schulz’s Bookplates
No full textThe Polish version of the article was published in Roczniki Humanistyczne vol. 64, issue 1 (2016).
The article enters into a dialogue with the interpretation of Bruno Schulz’s bookplates made by Władysław Panas in his book Bruno od Mesjasza (Bruno of the Messiah) (Lublin 2001). An attempt to understand them in a different (less holistic) way leads the author of the article to the conclusion that in Schulz’s plates the first veiled variant of the mythical Book may be seen—of the fundamental motif of Bruno Schulz’s later literary work
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