1,354,628 research outputs found
A Bayesian models for describing and predicting the stochastic demand of emergency calls
No full textEmergency Medical Service (EMS) systems aim at providing immediate medical care in case of emergency. A careful planning is a major prerequisite for the success of an EMS system, in particular to reduce the response time to emergency calls. Unfortunately, the demand for emergency services is highly variable and uncertainty should not be neglected while planning the activities. Thus, it is of fundamental importance to predict the number of future emergency calls and their interarrival times to support the decision-making process. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian model to predict the number of emergency calls in future time periods. Calls are described by means of a generalized linear mixed model, whose posterior densities of parameters are obtained through Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. Moreover, predictions are given in terms of their posterior predictive probabilities. Results from the application to a relevant real case show the applicability of the model in the practice and validate the approach
Lucano, Pharsalia o La Guerra Civile, Saggio introduttivo a cura di Paolo Esposito, Nuova traduzione a cura di Nicola Lanzarone, Commento a cura di Valentino D’Urso, Collana “Classici greci e latini”, diretta da Anna Giordano Rampioni, Rusconi Libri, Santarcangelo di Romagna 2022
No full textTesto latino e traduzione italiana del "Bellum civile" di Marco Anneo Lucano.Latin text and Italian translation of Lucan's Bellum civile
A metalogic programming approach: Language semantics and applications
No full textThis paper presents a logic programming language of novel conception, called Reflective Prolog, which allows declarative metaknowledge representation and metareasoning. The language is defined by augmenting pure Prolog (Horn clauses) with capabilities of self-reference and logical reflection. Self-reference is designed as a quotation device (a carefully defined naming relation) which allows the construction of metalevel terms that refer to object-level terms and atoms. Logical reflection is designed as an unquotation mechanism (a distinguished truth predicate) which relates names to what is named, thus extending the meaning of domain predicates. The reflection mechanism is embodied in an extended resolution procedure which automatically switches the context between levels. This implicit reflection relieves the programmer from having to explicitly deal with control aspects of the inference process. The declarative semantics of a Reflective Prolog definite program P is provided in terms of the least reflective Herbrand model of P, characterized by means of a suitable mapping defined over the Herbrand interpretations of P. The extended resolution is proved sound and complete with respect to the least reflective Herbrand model. By illustrating Reflective Prolog solutions to an organic set of problems, and by discussing the main differences with respect to other approaches to logic metaprogramming, we show that the proposed language deploys, within its field of action, greater expressive and inferential power than those available till now. The interpreter of the language has been fully implemented. Because of its enhanced power, logic semantics and working interpreter, Reflective Prolog is offered as a contribution toward making the declarative approach of logic programming applicable to the development of increasingly sophisticated knowledge-based systems. © Taylor & Francis Group, LLC
M. Annaei Lucani Belli civilis liber VII, a cura di Nicola Lanzarone, “Biblioteca Nazionale. Serie dei Classici Greci e Latini. Testi con Commento Filologico”, nuova serie diretta da Gian Biagio Conte, XXII, Felice Le Monnier, Firenze 2016 (pp. X-617)
No full textIl libro consiste in un ricchissimo commento filologico del libro VII del 'Bellum civile' di Lucano. Il commento è preceduto da una incisiva introduzione, dal testo critico e dalla traduzione italiana. Il volume è corredato da un'ampia bibliografia e da utilissimi indici delle parole e delle cose notevoli e dei passi citati
A proposito dell’ἀσυλία: nota filologica a Comm. Bern. a Lucan. 1, 97
No full textIn Comm. Bern. a Lucan. 1, 97 l’istituzione dell’asilo ateniese viene stranamente attribuita a Solone, mentre la tradizione mitografica e letteraria da cui lo scolio bernese dipende l’attribuisce agli Eraclidi. Pertanto è possibile che Solon sia una corruzione di ’Ιόλαος o Iolaus. Iolao era infatti nipote di Ercole e, dopo la morte dell’eroe, difensore dei suoi figli, come risulta, per esempio, dagli Heraclidae di Euripide.In Comm. Bern. on Lucan 1, 97 the institution of the Athenian asylum is curiously attributed to Solon, while the mythographic and literary tradition on which the Bern scholium relies attributes it to the Heraclidae. It is therefore possible that Solon is a corruption of ’Ιόλαος or Iolaus. In fact, Iolaus was Hercules’ nephew and defender of his sons after the hero’s death, as appears, for example, in Euripides’ Heraclidae
A Bayesian estimation approach for the mortality in a stage-structured demographic model
No full textSIRIO(opens in a new window)|View at Publisher|
Export
| Download | Add to List | More...
Journal of Mathematical Biology
27 January 2017, Pages 1-21
A Bayesian estimation approach for the mortality in a stage-structured demographic model ( Articles not published yet, but available online Article in press About articles in press (opens in a new window) )
Lanzarone, E.a , Pasquali, S.a , Gilioli, G.b , Marchesini, E.c
a Via A. Corti 12, Milan, Italy
b Department of Molecular and Translational Medicine, University of Brescia, Viale Europa 11, Brescia, Italy
c AGREA S.r.l. Centro Studi, Via Garibaldi 5/16, S. Giovanni Lupatoto (VR), Italy
View additional affiliations
Abstract
Control interventions in sustainable pest management schemes are set according to the phenology and the population abundance of the pests. This information can be obtained using suitable mathematical models that describe the population dynamics based on individual life history responses to environmental conditions and resource availability. These responses are described by development, fecundity and survival rate functions, which can be estimated from laboratory experiments. If experimental data are not available, data on field population dynamics can be used for their estimation. This is the case of the extrinsic mortality term that appears in the mortality rate function due to biotic factors. We propose a Bayesian approach to estimate the probability density functions of the parameters in the extrinsic mortality rate function, starting from data on population abundance. The method investigates the time variability in the mortality parameters by comparing simulated and observed trajectories. The grape berry moth, a pest of great importance in European vineyards, has been considered as a case study. Simulated data have been considered to evaluate the convergence of the algorithm, while field data have been used to obtain estimates of the mortality for the grape berry moth
Recensione a “Valentino D’Urso, Vivit post proelia Magnus. Commento a Lucano, Bellum civile VIII, Napoli, Paolo Loffredo Editore, 2019, pp. 496 (Studi latini 93)”
No full textRecensione al commento di Valentino D'Urso a Lucano 8
Uncertainty in the blood donation appointment scheduling: Key Factors and research perspectives
No full textWe consider the management of a blood collection center, which includes the features of both a production system and a service provider. In particular, we analyze the scheduling of donors and the related appointment system, addressing the so-called Blood Donation Appointment Scheduling (BDAS) problem. From the production system viewpoint, the requirement is to balance the production of whole blood units between days in order to meet the requirement of a constant supply of blood to hospitals and transfusion centers; from the service provider perspective, appointments reduce waiting times and improve the service quality perceived by donors. Thus, the goals of the BDAS are to guarantee a quite constant production of whole blood units and to reduce physicians’ overtimes while including appointments and free slots for donors without a reservation. A framework for the BDAS problem has been recently proposed, in which slots are first preallocated to the different blood types and then assigned to the donors when they call to make a reservation. However, this framework refers to a deterministic setting in which all input parameters are assumed to be known in advance. On the contrary, the BDAS problem is stochastic in nature and includes stochastic parameters that must be predicted from historical data. In this paper, we first analyze the possible uncertainty sources to determine the most critical ones. Then, we propose research directions to properly include them in the BDAS framework, considering both stochastic programming and robust optimization methodologies
Recensione di «Seminari Lucanei I. In memoria di Emanuele Narducci», a cura di Paolo Esposito, «Testi e studi di cultura classica» 80, Edizioni ETS, Pisa, 2020, pp. 240, Euro 23, ISBN 978-884675884-2.
No full textSi tratta della recensione di «Seminari Lucanei I. In memoria di Emanuele Narducci», a cura di Paolo Esposito, «Testi e studi di cultura classica» 80, Edizioni ETS, Pisa, 2020, pp. 240, Euro 23, ISBN 978-884675884-2. Il volume è costituito dagli Atti di un Convegno internazionale su Lucano organizzato da Paolo Esposito presso l’Università di Salerno nei giorni 25-26 settembre 2018.Review of «Seminari Lucanei I. In memoria di Emanuele Narducci», a cura di Paolo Esposito, «Testi e studi di cultura classica» 80, Edizioni ETS, Pisa, 2020, pp. 240, Euro 23, ISBN 978-884675884-2. Il volume è costituito dagli Atti di un Convegno internazionale su Lucano organizzato da Paolo Esposito presso l’Università di Salerno nei giorni 25-26 settembre 2018
Predicting donations and profiling donors in a blood collection center: a Bayesian approach
No full textDonor profiling and donation prediction are two key tasks that any blood collection center must face. Profiling is important to target promotion campaigns, recruiting donors who will guarantee a high production of blood units over time. Predicting the future arrivals of donors allows to size the collection center properly and to provide reliable information on the future production of blood units. Both tasks can be addressed through a statistical prediction model for the intensity function of the donation event. We propose a Bayesian model, which describes this intensity as a function of individual donor's random frailties and their fixed-time and time-dependent covariates. Our model explains donors' behaviors from their first donation based on their individual characteristics. We apply it to data of recurrent donors provided by the Milan department of the Associazione Volontari Italiani del Sangue in Italy. Our method proved to fit those data, but it can also be easily applied to other blood collection centers. The method also allows general indications to be drawn, supported by quantitative analyses, to be provided to staff
- …
