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Вибір порядку регресійної моделі при прогнозуванні випадкових нестаціонарних економічних процесів
Get PDFThe object of research is heteroskedastic processes that affect the production of military goods of exporting countries. Today, armed conflicts are the most significant factor affecting the volume of production and export of weapons, since it assumes that the parties have the necessary quantity of weapons and is, in a sense, a stochastic process. The work is devoted to forecasting stochastic effects on the production processes of military goods of exporting countries. As an example, an economic system with stochastic effects and bottleneck problems in production units is considered. The model of the output process is presented as a random process with slow non-stationarity (heteroscedastic process). The methods for predicting non-stationary random processes are used. The problem of choosing and substantiating a mathematical model for predicting a heteroskedastic process is investigated, and considered. It is proved that the most capable short-term forecasting method is the Padé approximation method. It is shown that the Padé method, in fact, is a method of approximation by analytical (finely rational) functions, therefore it can be interpreted as a method of constructing a model of autoregression and moving average (ARIMA). Modifications of the ARIMA model, such as a model of autoregression and integrated moving average or autoregression and fractal integrated moving average, are considered. A modified method is developed for choosing the order of the autoregressive model according to the Akaike information criterion and beyond the Bayesian information criterion. The model problems and examples of experimental dependencies are analyzed. An effective technique is proposed for choosing the order of regression models used in the practical forecasting of stochastic processes, based on the canonical layouts of a random function. To partition the distribution function into non-equidistant intervals with constant flow intensities, an economic recurrence algorithm is used. The calculation results can be used to optimally select the order of the regression model, which approximates the real production process in the form of a time series with random external influences.Объектом исследования являются гетероскедастические процессы, которые влияют на производство товаров военного назначения стран-экспортеров. На сегодняшний день вооруженные конфликты являются наиболее значимым фактором, влияющим на объемы производства и экспорта вооружения, поскольку предполагает наличие у сторон необходимого количества вооружения и есть в некотором смысле стохастическим процессом. Работа посвящена прогнозированию стохастических воздействий на производственные процессы товаров военного назначения стран-экспортеров. В качестве примера рассмотрено экономическую систему со стохастическими воздействиями и проблемами узких мест в производственных подразделениях. Модель процесса выхода продукции представлено в виде случайного процессу с медленной нестационарностью (гетероскедастического процесса). В ходе исследования использовались методы прогнозирования нестационарных случайных процессов. Исследована задача выбора и обоснования математической модели прогноза рассматриваемого гетероскедастического процесса. Доказано, что наиболее способным методом краткосрочного прогноза является метод приближения Паде. Показано, что метод Паде, по сути, является методом аппроксимации аналитическими (мелко-рациональными) функциями, поэтому его можно интерпретировать как метод построения модели авторегрессии и скользящего среднего (АРСС). Рассмотрены модификации модели АРСС, такие как модель авторегрессии и интегрированного скользящего среднего или авторегрессии и фрактального интегрированного скользящего среднего. Разработан модифицированный метод выбора порядка авторегрессионной модели по информационному критерию Акаике и по байесовскому информационному критерию. Проанализированы модельная задача и примеры экспериментальных зависимостей. Предложено эффективную методику выбора порядка регрессионных моделей, применяемых при практическом прогнозировании стохастических процессов, которая основана на канонических раскладах случайной функции. Для разбиения функции распределения на неэквидистантные интервалы с постоянными интенсивностями потока используется экономический рекуррентный алгоритм. Результаты расчетов могут быть использованы для оптимального выбора порядка регрессионной модели, которой аппроксимируется реальный процесс производства в виде временного ряда со случайными внешними воздействиями.Об’єктом дослідження є гетероскедастичні процеси, які впливають на виробництво товарів військового призначення країн-експортерів. На сьогоднішній день збройні конфлікти є найбільш значущим фактором, який впливає на обсяги виробництва та експорту озброєння, оскільки передбачає наявність у сторін необхідної кількості озброєння та є в певному сенсі стохастичним процесом. Робота присвячена прогнозуванню стохастичних впливів на виробничі процеси товарів військового призначення країн-експортерів. В якості прикладу розглянуто економічну систему зі стохастичними впливами та проблемами вузьких місць у виробничих підрозділах. Модель процесу виходу продукції представлено у виді випадкового процесу з повільною нестаціонарністю (гетероскедастичного процесу). В ході дослідження використовувалися методи прогнозування нестаціонарних випадкових процесів. Досліджено задачу вибору та обґрунтування математичної моделі прогнозу гетероскедастичного процесу, що розглядається. Доведено, що найбільш спроможним методом короткострокового прогнозу є метод наближення Паде. Показано, що метод Паде, по суті, є методом апроксимації аналітичними (дрібно-раціональними) функціями, тому його можна інтерпретувати як метод побудови моделі авторегресії та ковзного середнього (АРКС). Розглянуті модифікації моделі АРКС, такі як модель авторегресії та інтегрованого ковзного середнього або авторегресії та фрактального інтегрованого ковзного середнього. Розроблено модифікований метод вибору порядку авторегресійної моделі за інформаційним критерієм Акаіке та за байєсівським інформаційним критерієм. Проаналізовано модельну задачу та приклади експериментальних залежностей. Запропоновано ефективну методику вибору порядку регресійних моделей, що застосовуються при практичному прогнозуванні стохастичних процесів, яка заснована на канонічних розкладах випадкової функції. Для розбиття функції розподілу на нееквідистантні інтервали з постійними інтенсивностями потоку використовується економічний рекурентний алгоритм. Результати розрахунків можуть бути використані для оптимального вибору порядку регресійної моделі, якою апроксимується реальний процес виробництва у вигляді часового ряду з випадковими зовнішніми впливами
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Get PDFThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
Get PDF“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Get PDFWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts
Get PDFWe conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued
use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation
counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more
sophisticated methods
koamabayili/VECTRON-author-checklist: VECTRON author checklist
No full textWe have done our best to complete the author checklist relating to the use of animals in the hut study. Note that the objective for the hut study was to evaluate the IRS treatment applications for residual efficacy against Anopheles mosquitoes, including the local An. coluzzii mosquito population. Cows were only used to attract mosquitoes into the huts and no tests were carried out directly on the cows. The author checklist is intended for use with studies where experiments are carried out on animals, which is why we have had such difficulty in completing this for the hut study, as many of the questions do not relate to how the cows were used
Author-wise bibliometric analysis based on entropy.
No full textAuthor-wise bibliometric analysis based on entropy.</p
Author Under Sail The Imagination of Jack London, 1893-1902
No full textIn Author Under Sail, Jay Williams offers the first complete literary biography of Jack London as a professional writer engaged in the labor of writing. It examines the authorial imagination in London's work, the use of imagination in both his fiction and nonfiction, and the ways he defined imagination in the creative process in his business dealings with his publishers, editors, and agents. In this first volume of a two-volume biography, Williams traverses the years 1893 to 1902, from London's "Story of a Typhoon" to The People of the Abyss. The Jack London who emerges in the pages of Author Under Sail is a writer whose partnership with publishers, most notably his productive alliance with George Brett of Macmillan, was one of the most formative in American literary history. London pioneered many author models during the heyday of realism and naturalism, blurring the boundaries of these popular genres by focusing on absorption and theatricality and the representation of the seen and unseen. London created an impassioned, sincere, and extremely personal realism unlike that of other American writers of the time. Author Under Sail is a literary tour de force that reveals the full range of London as writer, creative citizen, and entrepreneur at the same time it sheds light on the maverick side of machine-age literature.Intro -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Dedication -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Introduction -- 1. Spirit Truth -- 2. From Absorption to Theatricality and Back Again -- 3. "I Will Build a New Present" -- 4. Sons as Authors -- 5. Fathers as Publishers -- 6. The Daughter as Author -- 7. Lovers as Authors -- 8. At Sea with the Family -- 9. Yellow News, Yellow Stories -- 10. The Return Home -- Notes -- Bibliography -- Index -- About Jay WilliamsIn Author Under Sail, Jay Williams offers the first complete literary biography of Jack London as a professional writer engaged in the labor of writing. It examines the authorial imagination in London's work, the use of imagination in both his fiction and nonfiction, and the ways he defined imagination in the creative process in his business dealings with his publishers, editors, and agents. In this first volume of a two-volume biography, Williams traverses the years 1893 to 1902, from London's "Story of a Typhoon" to The People of the Abyss. The Jack London who emerges in the pages of Author Under Sail is a writer whose partnership with publishers, most notably his productive alliance with George Brett of Macmillan, was one of the most formative in American literary history. London pioneered many author models during the heyday of realism and naturalism, blurring the boundaries of these popular genres by focusing on absorption and theatricality and the representation of the seen and unseen. London created an impassioned, sincere, and extremely personal realism unlike that of other American writers of the time. Author Under Sail is a literary tour de force that reveals the full range of London as writer, creative citizen, and entrepreneur at the same time it sheds light on the maverick side of machine-age literature.Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources.Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, YYYY. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries
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