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Uma nota sobre erros de previsão da inflação de curto‐prazo
Get PDFThis note shows that the unbiasedness and the weak rationality hypotheses are not rejected for inflation forecasts surveyed by the Central Bank. However, a clear pattern of auto-correlation of forecast errors is found. Furthermore, increases (decreases) in inflation are systematically associated with underestimations (overestimations) of inflation in the following month. This suggests that models in which past realizations of inflation have greater weight in the formation of expectations are more accurate than the assumption of rational expectations. Models aimed at explaining how expectations are formed should be able to explain these stylized facts as well as the hysteresis of forecasts.Esta nota mostra que as previsões de inflação mensal coletadas pelo Banco Central passam os testes de ausência de viés e racionalidade fraca quando o horizonte de previsão é de um mês. No entanto, a exemplo do que ocorre com expectativas de inflação em outros países, um padrão de autocorrelação nos erros de previsão é encontrado. Além disto, aumentos (diminuições) na taxa de inflação estão sistematicamente associados a subestimações (sobre‐estimações) da inflação no período seguinte. Estas regularidades estão presentes tanto na amostra completa como na amostra restrita às 5 instituições de melhor performance preditiva. Modelos que procurem explicar a formação de expectativas no contexto brasileiro devem ser capazes de explicar estes fatos estilizados
Stasavage, David: The Political Economy of a Common Currency - The CFA Franc Zone since 1945
No full textGoing Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Get PDFThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Debt Bailouts and Constitutions
Get PDFA demand based theory of sub-national debt bailouts is presented. It is shown that revenue sharing (RS) arrangements alter the demand for bailouts among politicians with regional constituencies as a bailout usually implies a shift of taxation to the federal tier. Automatic RS may lead to the formation of pro-bailout coalitions formed by indebted states and states that are net recipients of the RS arrangement. Also, RS can act as a commitment device for compensating payments among state representatives, making a bailout politically rational. The model shows that the state debt bailouts approved by the Brazilian Senate prior to the enactment of the Fiscal Responsibility Act were fully consistent with politicians that maximize the proceeds accruing to their constituencies
Sovereign risk : constitutions rule
No full textThis paper models the executives choice of whether to reschedule external debt as the outcome of an intra-governmental negotiation process. The key issue the paper tries to explain is the stark difference in default rates between the group of developing countries that have presidential forms of government and those that are parliamentary (6.0%/year vs 1.6%/year). This difference is present in spite of the fact that the latter group tends to have a somewhat higher turnover of the executive. The conditions under which parliamentary democracies will deliver lower probabilities of default than presidential countries are derived in a model with opportunistic politicians. Empirically, I find that middle-income democracies with parliamentary regimes, more checks on the executive, lower turnover in leadership and coalition governments show lower default propensities
Sovereign risk: constitutions rule
Get PDFThis paper models the executive's choice of whether to reschedule external debt as the outcome of an intra-governmental negotiation process. The executive's necessity of a confidence vote from the legislature is found to provide the rationale for why some democracies may not renegotiate their foreign obligations. Empirically, parliamentary democracies are indeed less prone to reschedule their foreign liabilities or accumulate arrears on them. Most of the democracies that have been able to significantly reduce their debt/GNP ratio without a 'credit incident' were parliamentary. Moreover, countries with stronger political checks on the executive and lower executive turnover have a lower rescheduling propensity. These results suggest that North and Weingast's account of the evolution of institutions in 17th century England gives substantial mileage in understanding the international debt markets in the contemporary developing world
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