8 research outputs found
Model output used in the manuscript "Micro and macro parametric uncertainty in climate change prediction: a large ensemble perspective"
No full textThis *.zip file contains the model output from ensemble simulations for the Lorenz 84-Stommel 61 model (hereafter L84-S61; Van Veen et al, 2001; Daron and Stainforth, 2013). To run these simulations, we used the E-forth ensemble generator (de Melo Viríssimo and Stainforth, in preparation), which is a MATLAB toolbox that allows for large ensembles of low-dimensional dynamical systems to be run and studied in a systematic way (de Melo Viríssimo and Stainforth, 2023). These model outputs are presented and discussed in the Preprint "Micro and macro parametric uncertainty in climate change prediction: a large ensemble perspective". The manuscript describes the experiments performed, the parameter values used and the modifications done to the original L84-S61 model. For this matter, we also refer you to Daron and Stainforth (2013) and de Melo Viríssimo et al. (2024). All files uploaded were generated from simulations run by the lead author. For specific information about each file uploaded, please refer to the README file. The details of each experiment are also presented in the supplementary materials of the preprint above. If you have any questions, please feel free to contact me.
References: Van Veen et al. (2001): https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1034/j.1600-0870.2001.00241.x Daron and Stainforth (2013): https://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034021 de Melo Viríssimo and Stainforth (2023): https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-14755 de Melo Viríssimo et al. (2024): https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0180870 de Melo Viríssimo and Stainforth (in preparation): to appea
The works of Richard Brinsley Sheridan, dramas, poems, translations, speeches, and unfinished sketches. With a memoir of the author, a collection of ana, and ten chalk drawings.
No full textMode of access: Internet
Proportionality in tax disputes: Lithuanian Court practice
No full textThrough detailed consideration of relevant European Court of Justice and European Court of Human Rights case law, the author examines the principle of proportionality in European Union law and ways in which is is applicable to the settlement of tax law disputes in Lithuania
Facing future climate change: is the past relevant?
No full textFrom a socio-economic perspective, the ‘sharp end’ of climate research is very much about looking forward in time. As far as possible, we need to know what to expect and approximately when to expect it. However, it is argued here that our approach to climate change (including its scientific basis and its policy implications) is firmly linked to our understanding of the past. This is mainly due to the role played by palaeoclimate reconstructions in shaping our expectations of the climate system, in particular via their ability to test the accuracy of our climate models. Importantly, this includes the intuitive models that each of us carries around in our mind, as well as the more complex numerical models hiding inside supercomputers. It is through such models that palaeoclimate insights may affect the scientific and political judgements that we must make in the face of persistent and ultimately irreducible predictive uncertainty. Already we can demonstrate a great deal of confidence in our current understanding of the global climate system based specifically on insights from the geological record. If further advances are to be made effectively, climate models should take advantage of both past and present constraints on their behaviour, and should be given added credence to the extent that they are compatible with an increasingly rich tapestry of past climatic phenomena. Furthermore, palaeoclimate data should be accompanied by clearly defined uncertainties, and organized in arrays that are capable of speaking directly to numerical models, and their limitations in particular
Home-based narrowband UVB, topical corticosteroid or combination for children and adults with vitiligo: HI-light vitiligo three-arm RCT
No full textBackground: Systematic reviews suggest that narrowband ultraviolet B light combined with treatments such as topical corticosteroids may be more effective than monotherapy for vitiligo. Objective: To explore the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of topical corticosteroid monotherapy compared with (1) hand-held narrowband ultraviolet B light monotherapy and (2) handheld narrowband ultraviolet B light/topical corticosteroid combination treatment for localised vitiligo. Design: Pragmatic, three-arm, randomised controlled trial with 9 months of treatment and a 12-month follow-up. Setting: Sixteen UK hospitals - participants were recruited from primary and secondary care and the community. Participants: Adults and children (aged ≥ 5 years) with active non-segmental vitiligo affecting ≤ 10% of their body area. Interventions: Topical corticosteroids [mometasone furoate 0.1% (Elocon®, Merck Sharp & Dohme Corp., Merck & Co., Inc., Whitehouse Station, NJ, USA) plus dummy narrowband ultraviolet B light]; narrowband ultraviolet B light (narrowband ultraviolet B light plus placebo topical corticosteroids); or combination (topical corticosteroids plus narrowband ultraviolet B light). Topical corticosteroids were applied once daily on alternate weeks and narrowband ultraviolet B light was administered every other day in escalating doses, with a dose adjustment for erythema. All treatments were home based. Main outcome measures: The primary outcome was self-assessed treatment success for a chosen target patch after 9 months of treatment ('a lot less noticeable' or ʼno longer noticeable' on the Vitiligo Noticeability Scale). Secondary outcomes included blinded assessment of primary outcome and percentage repigmentation, onset and maintenance of treatment response, quality of life, side effects, treatment burden and cost-effectiveness (cost per additional successful treatment). Results: In total, 517 participants were randomised (adults, n = 398; and children, n = 119; 52% male; 57% paler skin types I-III, 43% darker skin types IV-VI). At the end of 9 months of treatment, 370 (72%) participants provided primary outcome data. The median percentage of narrowband ultraviolet B light treatment-days (actual/allocated) was 81% for topical corticosteroids, 77% for narrowband ultraviolet B light and 74% for combination groups; and for ointment was 79% for topical corticosteroids, 83% for narrowband ultraviolet B light and 77% for combination. Target patch location was head and neck (31%), hands and feet (32%), and rest of the body (37%). Target patch treatment 'success' was 20 out of 119 (17%) for topical corticosteroids, 27 out of 123 (22%) for narrowband ultraviolet B light and 34 out of 128 (27%) for combination. Combination treatment was superior to topical corticosteroids (adjusted risk difference 10.9%, 95% confidence interval 1.0% to 20.9%; p = 0.032; number needed to treat = 10). Narrowband ultraviolet B light was not superior to topical corticosteroids (adjusted risk difference 5.2%, 95% confidence interval -4.4% to 14.9%; p = 0.290; number needed to treat = 19). The secondary outcomes supported the primary analysis. Quality of life did not differ between the groups. Participants who adhered to the interventions for > 75% of the expected treatment protocol were more likely to achieve treatment success. Over 40% of participants had lost treatment response after 1 year with no treatment. Grade 3 or 4 erythema was experienced by 62 participants (12%) (three of whom were using the dummy) and transient skin thinning by 13 participants (2.5%) (two of whom were using the placebo). We observed no serious adverse treatment effects. For combination treatment compared with topical corticosteroids, the unadjusted incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was £2328.56 (adjusted £1932) per additional successful treatment (from an NHS perspective). Limitations: Relatively high loss to follow-up limits the interpretation of the trial findings, especially during the post-intervention follow-up phase. Conclusion: Hand-held narrowband ultraviolet B light plus topical corticosteroid combination treatment is superior to topical corticosteroids alone for treatment of localised vitiligo. Combination treatment was relatively safe and well tolerated, but was effective in around one-quarter of participants only.Whether or not combination treatment is cost-effective depends on how much decision-makers are willing to pay for the benefits observed. Future work: Development and testing of new vitiligo treatments with a greater treatment response and longer-lasting effects are needed
A review of the importance of the Caribbean region in Oligo-Miocene low latitude planktonic foraminiferal biostratigraphy and the implications for modern biogeochronological schemes
No full textPlanktonic foraminifera are widely used in marine biostratigraphy thanks to their small size, limited stratigraphic range and abundance in oceanic sediments. The utility of planktonic foraminifera in biostratigraphy was first fully recognised within the Caribbean region during the middle of the 20th century. The area was critical for the subsequent development of the low latitude biostratigraphic schemes and remains fundamental for modern day biogeochronologies. This study presents a historical review of the Oligo-Miocene component of these biostratigraphic schemes, including the first proposed scheme of Cushman and Stainforth (1945) and the subsequent development. The work of Hans Bolli and Walter Blow is particularly highlighted due to their heavy influence on modern day biostratigraphy, including these authors initially recognising the biostratigraphic utility of a number of bioevents still applied today. These Caribbean-centric schemes are correlated to the modern-day low latitude biogeochronology of Wade et al. (2011), with this synthesis highlighting that a number of bioevents (e.g. Top Paragloborotalia kugleri and Top Catapsydrax dissimilis) have been applied consistently since their initial recognition. This in turn allows the recognisability of these bioevents to be deduced based on how consistently applied each datum has been. In addition, the range charts of six studies focusing heavily on the Caribbean have been reassessed to determine whether there is potential to apply a given bioevent, and the original author merely did not recognise the biostratigraphic utility of the species or favoured another bioevent.
In considering this historical review, a number of amendments to Wade et al. (2011) and future priorities to planktonic foraminifera biogeochronologies are suggested. Most notably, the re-introduction of Base Globigerinatella insueta as a primary bioevent due to the historical biostratigraphic importance of this species. This event now defines early Miocene Subzone M3b (Gt. insueta/Ct. dissimilis PRZ) dividing Zone M3 into an upper Subzone M3b (Base Gt. insueta) and lower Subzone M3a (Base Globigerinatella sp.). Finally, the Miocene to Recent timescale of Wade et al. (2011) has been recalibrated following more recent updates to the magnetostratigraphy (Kochhann et al., 2016; Ogg et al., 2016; Drury et al., 2017; Beddow et al., 2018) and cyclostratigraphy (Wilkens et al., 2017). The overall effect on the planktonic foraminifera biogeochronology is minor but our results become the suggested biostratigraphic framework for the low latitudes
Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change
No full text\ua9 2018, The Author(s). As climate change research becomes increasingly applied, the need for actionable information is growing rapidly. A key aspect of this requirement is the representation of uncertainties. The conventional approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change is probabilistic, based on ensembles of climate model simulations. In the face of deep uncertainties, the known limitations of this approach are becoming increasingly apparent. An alternative is thus emerging which may be called a ‘storyline’ approach. We define a storyline as a physically self-consistent unfolding of past events, or of plausible future events or pathways. No a priori probability of the storyline is assessed; emphasis is placed instead on understanding the driving factors involved, and the plausibility of those factors. We introduce a typology of four reasons for using storylines to represent uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change: (i) improving risk awareness by framing risk in an event-oriented rather than a probabilistic manner, which corresponds more directly to how people perceive and respond to risk; (ii) strengthening decision-making by allowing one to work backward from a particular vulnerability or decision point, combining climate change information with other relevant factors to address compound risk and develop appropriate stress tests; (iii) providing a physical basis for partitioning uncertainty, thereby allowing the use of more credible regional models in a conditioned manner and (iv) exploring the boundaries of plausibility, thereby guarding against false precision and surprise. Storylines also offer a powerful way of linking physical with human aspects of climate change
The diocese of Coventry and Lichfield, 1603-1642
No full textThis thesis investigates religious life among the clergy and laity in the diocese of
Lichfield, 1603-1642, including the role of Puritans, Catholics and Church
Papists. Nicholas Tyacke has maintained that the implementation of Laudianism
in Charles I's reign proved contentious, an interpretation criticised by some
historians who aver that the Church continued to maintain a 'middle way'. This
study finds that the evidence from the diocese largely supports Tyacke's
interpretation.
Proto-Laudian reforms were implemented in the see some years before the
Laudian ascendancy through the episcopates of Neile and Overall. Every bishop
in the period who undertook a programme of reform met local hostility and
indifference, and sometimes the opposition of his ecclesiastical and lay superiors.
Every religious group underwent change and development. Puritans and
Catholics pursued strategies for survival, supported by their respective religious
networks. Official opposition often had the effect of strengthening their resolve
and confirming them in their beliefs. Local conformists' commitment to the
established Church deepened during this period. They respected the Church's role
as the official purveyor of religion, morality and the ecclesiastical rites of passage,
without evidencing much theological understanding.
In the 1630s Bishop Wright oversaw the Laudian programme of
sacramental, sacerdotal and liturgical reform, but his lack of organisation, zeal and
commitment frustrated Charles, Laud and some local diocesan officials. The
changes met resistance, which gathered strength with the collapse of the Personal
Rule and manifested itself either in a desire to return to the pre-Laudian Church,
or in its root and branch reform. The strength of an individual's anti-Catholicism
indicated which religious solution s/he supported. When war came, for the most
part Puritans predictably supported Parliament, but a number of moderate Puritans
supported the King. Even among the 'godly' fraternity allegiance could
sometimes be determined by a variety of considerations
